Community Needs Assessment - Hawkesbury City Council

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These figures suggest that the population of Hawkesbury LGA will increase by 15,800 people between 2006 and 2026, equivalent to a 25% increase over 20 years. The age group which will experience the largest total increase in population is the 65-69 year population, which will increase by 1,740 people by 2026, equivalent to a 92% rise. The age group which will experience the largest proportional increase in population is the 85 years and over population, which will increase by 1,130 people by 2026, equivalent to a 166% increase. In total the over 65 years population will increase by 6,970 people, from 5,850 in 2006, to 12,820 by 2026. This is a 119% increase, and will raise the proportion of people over 65 years old from 9% of the total population to 16% of the total population. The age group with the lowest total and proportional increase is the 45 – 49 year population, which is forecast to increase by only 70 people, equivalent to a 2% increase. This forecast suggests that the population of the Hawkesbury LGA is ageing; with greater projected increases in the over 65 year‟s population compared with the young and working age populations. This will place increasing pressure on the demand for services and facilities which support the aged population in the region. 4.2 PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT The population projections for the proposed development have been based on the development of 1,400 new dwellings over a 10 year period, providing 140 homes per year. The potential accommodation schedule for the proposed development is not available. Therefore Urbis has calculated the potential total population based on the average household size of 2.8people for Hawkesbury LGA, measured from the 2006 Census. The average household size has fallen in recent years and may continue to fall, thereby reducing the total number of people predicted to be resident in the area. However the proposed development, and the provision of a diverse housing mix, may maintain the average household size in the future. Table 5 below presents the population forecasts for the proposed development, based on an average household size of 2.8 people. TABLE 5 – PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT POPULATION PROJECTIONS YEAR DWELLINGS PEOPLE 2012 140 392 2016 700 1,960 2021 1400 3,920 On this basis, population projections for the proposed development suggest that the development of 1,400 dwellings will accommodate 3,920 residents. 4.3 CUMULATIVE POPULATION Population forecasts are only available for the Hawkesbury LGA area. In order to provide a more focused assessment of the development impact on the provision of services in the local area, these growth rates have been used to project the proposed population within a 5km radius of the site. Natural population growth rates, presented in Table 4, have been applied to the population within a 5km radius of the proposed development site. The 5km radius is used in Section 6 to assess the existing provision of social infrastructure services. Table 6 below presents the impact of development on the cumulative population of the area. 18 POPULATION FORECASTING URBIS APPENDIX_O_COMMUNITY_NEEDS_ASSESSMENT
TABLE 6 – CUMULATIVE POPULATION YEAR PROPOSED DEVELOPMENT 5KM RADIUS HAWKESBURY 2012 392 17,912 64,992 2016 1,960 20,185 69,160 2021 3,920 23,393 75,720 This indicates that in 2012 the total population within a 5km radius of the site will be 17,912, increasing to 23,393 people by 2021. URBIS APPENDIX_O_COMMUNITY_NEEDS_ASSESSMENT POPULATION FORECASTING 19
Page 1 and 2: Community Needs Assessment North Ri
Page 3 and 4: TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary
Page 5 and 6: Executive Summary Urbis Public Poli
Page 7 and 8: 1 Introduction 1.1 BACKGROUND Urbis
Page 9 and 10: • Capacity improvements to a key
Page 11 and 12: URBIS APPENDIX_O_COMMUNITY_NEEDS_AS
Page 13 and 14: 2 Review of Policy Context and Back
Page 15 and 16: • Safer roads. • More housing.
Page 17 and 18: • Be a place where we value, prot
Page 19 and 20: Clerical and Admin Workers 332 14.9
Page 21 and 22: Both the North Richmond Collection
Page 23: 4 Population Forecasting 4.1 POPULA
Page 27 and 28: • Council‟s Mobility Plan is se
Page 29 and 30: • The school has no plans for exp
Page 31 and 32: 6 Social Infrastructure Audit 6.1 I
Page 33 and 34: Hawkesbury Village aged care, locat
Page 35 and 36: 6.7.2 OTHER ACTIVE RECREATION FACIL
Page 37 and 38: 7 Needs Assessment and Benchmarking
Page 39 and 40: FACILITY SERVICE EXISTING PROPOSED
Page 41 and 42: FACILITY SERVICE EXISTING PROPOSED
Page 43 and 44: 7.1 SUMMARY OF NEEDS ASSESSMENT AND
Page 45 and 46: 8.5 SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS The
Page 49 and 50: Appendix A Facilities mapping URBIS

Community Needs Assessment - Hawkesbury City Council

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