World Energy Outlook 2011 - IEA

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Implications of delayed action 229 Lock-in in the energy sector 229 The cost of lock-in 235 What if CCS does not deliver? 236 Part B: OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIAN ENERGY 243 7 Russian domestic energy prospects 245 Highlights 245 Introduction 246 Trends in energy demand and supply 247 Trends in policies and governance 251 Key assumptions for the Russian energy outlook 251 GDP and population 251 Energy and climate policies 253 Energy pricing 255 Energy savings potential 257 Russian domestic energy outlook 261 Overview 261 Energy savings 262 Domestic energy trends by fuel 264 Domestic energy trends by sector 267 © OECD/IEA, 2011 8 Russian resources and supply potential 283 Highlights 283 Overview 284 Oil 288 Resources 288 Production 292 Investment and costs 300 Exports 301 Natural gas 303 Resources 303 Production 304 Investment and costs 310 Flaring 311 Transportation and storage 312 Prospects for natural gas export flows 312 Unconventional resources 315 Coal 318 Nuclear 320 Hydropower and other renewables 323 Hydropower 324 Other renewables 325 18 World Energy Outlook 2011
9 Implications of Russia’s energy development 329 Highlights 329 Energy and national economic development 330 Investment 334 Revenues 335 Eurasian and global energy security 336 Regional energy relationships and oil and gas transit 337 Russia in global oil markets 339 Russia in global gas markets 341 Russia in global coal markets 346 Environment and climate change 346 Comparing this Outlook with Russian scenarios and objectives 349 Part C: OUTLOOK FOR COAL MARKETS 351 10 Coal demand prospects 353 Highlights 353 Overview 354 Understanding the drivers of coal demand 358 Economic activity 359 Coal prices and inter-fuel competition 361 Energy and environmental policies 373 Technological innovation 376 Regional Analysis 380 China 382 India 387 United States 390 Other non-OECD Asia 392 Eastern Europe/Eurasia 392 OECD Asia Oceania 393 OECD Europe 394 Africa 395 Rest of the world 395 © OECD/IEA, 2011 11 Coal supply and investment prospects 397 Highlights 397 Overview of projections 398 Understanding the drivers of coal supply 401 Resources and reserves 402 Cost trends and technology 404 Government policies 413 Coal market and industry structure 416 International markets 416 Industry concentration 417 Table of contents 19
Page 1 and 2: Please note that this PDF is subjec
Page 3 and 4: WORLD ENERGY 2 0 11 OUTLOOK
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD It is the job of governmen
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS © OECD/IEA, 2011
Page 9 and 10: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Alexey Biteryakov
Page 11 and 12: © OECD/IEA, 2011 James Jensen Jan-
Page 13 and 14: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Jeff Piper Oleg P
Page 15 and 16: Liu Xiaoli Vitaly Yermakov Shigehir
Page 17 and 18: CONTEXT AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 1
Page 19: Trade 136 Trends in oil and gas pro
Page 23 and 24: Electricity access - financing on-g
Page 25 and 26: 3.5 Average annual change in transp
Page 27 and 28: 5.19 Renewables grid integration co
Page 29 and 30: 8.13 Changes in Russian natural gas
Page 31 and 32: 11.14 Cumulative coal-supply invest
Page 33 and 34: List of tables Part A: GLOBAL ENERG
Page 35 and 36: 10.5 CO 2 emissions from coal combu
Page 37 and 38: 8.5 The “Northern Route” to mar
Page 39 and 40: Comments and questions are welcome
Page 41 and 42: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “If we don’t
Page 43 and 44: Rising transport demand and upstrea
Page 45 and 46: Treading water or full steam ahead
Page 47 and 48: Achieving energy for all will not c
Page 49 and 50: PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PREFACE
Page 51 and 52: CHAPTER 1 CONTEXT AND ANALYTICAL FR
Page 53 and 54: East and North Africa, a region tha
Page 55 and 56: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 1 - Conte
Page 57 and 58: The New Policies Scenario should no
Page 59 and 60: on welfare programmes. While this i
Page 61 and 62: 6.8 billion in 2009 to around 8.6 b
Page 63 and 64: Energy prices The evolution of ener
Page 65 and 66: Natural gas prices Historically, na
Page 67 and 68: Figure 1.2 Ratio of average natura
Page 69 and 70: © OECD/IEA, 2011 In the 450 Scenar
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CHAPTER 2 ENERGY PROJECTIONS TO 203
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In the 450 Scenario, global energy
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Figure 2.4 World energy-related CO
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Box 2.1 The impact of lower near-t
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SPOTLIGHT © OECD/IEA, 2011 What ar
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Figure 2.7 Shares of energy source
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of the total in 2035, the absolute
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 In Latin America,
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adoption of hybrids (32% of passeng
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Figure 2.12 Incremental energy dem
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Figure 2.14 Incremental world ener
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production continue to clarify the
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stabilising thereafter, to settle a
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The answer will depend on China’s
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investment needs are not as high, b
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Energy-related emissions Greenhouse
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 2 - Energ
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CHAPTER 3 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK Will i
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the assumed higher GDP growth, howe
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Policies Scenario, OECD primary dem
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Chapter 13 for a discussion of ener
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if large-scale projects were succes
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Passenger light-duty vehicles Passe
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countries own a car today, while av
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Box 3.1 The future of car making T
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wait-and-see strategy in a still na
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eserves additions amounted to 29 bi
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Figure 3.15 World oil production i
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 By country, Iraq
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in production from older fields. Ru
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States (US DOE/EIA, 2011a). Of cour
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Europe’s production decline is we
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have acknowledged that the target l
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 this potential wi
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 3 - Oil m
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and most of the easily accessible o
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egions where international oil comp
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Trends in upstream spending differ
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Impact of deferred upstream investm
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good by other regions. Higher oil a
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atios of gas and coal prices to oil
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Oil demand falls much less in volum
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than offset by higher oil prices (a
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CHAPTER 4 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOO
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decreases through the projection pe
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Middle East (included in “other e
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Figure 4.4 Primary natural gas dem
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Table 4.3 Primary natural gas prod
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Table 4.4 Primary natural gas prod
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production growth in Iran is likely
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projections of the New Policies Sce
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of additional unconventional gas su
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SPOTLIGHT Do all roads lead to a Go
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CHAPTER 5 POWER AND RENEWABLES OUTL
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Around 80% of the growth in electri
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Figure 5.2 Share of world electric
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Figure 5.4 Incremental global coal
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driving the growth in this technolo
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wind power producer. Generation fro
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In OECD countries, the reduction in
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 5 - Power
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Box 5.1 Costs of integrating varia
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of renewables can also improve capa
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Focus on T&D infrastructure Robust
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years and this is set to continue.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 5 - Power
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total system integration costs (see
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systems, smart grids can also incre
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CHAPTER 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE 45
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Box 6.1 What is special about 2°C
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 was driven by eco
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Table 6.1 World anthropogenic gree
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over 6 000 terawatt hours (TWh) in
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Efficiency policies are by far the
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Union in the 450 Scenario). China a
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SPOTLIGHT The International Year of
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The power generation sector plays a
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 6 - Clima
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the total). 7 Refurbishment of buil
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which by 2035 are $42/tonne, or 38%
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Implications of delayed action This
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cumulative budgeted emissions of th
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of its technical lifetime before 20
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the case for transport, however, th
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Figure 6.17 Potential CO 2 emissio
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example, it would require an averag
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Figure 6.19 Change in global energ
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PART B OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIAN ENERGY P
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CHAPTER 7 RUSSIAN DOMESTIC ENERGY P
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(Urengoy and Yamburg) that have mad
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Figure 7.2 Energy production in Ru
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Trends in policies and governance T
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and those in Russian strategy docum
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Another target adopted by the Russi
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Figure 7.4 Total energy costs as a
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accounts for a significant share (F
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stricter building codes, are consid
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Figure 7.9 Primary energy savings
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this decline is projected to contin
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The current contribution of non-fos
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energy economy and the government c
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Figure 7.15 Age profile of install
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Reform efforts directed at the elec
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difficult to assess with any accura
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energy demand in the transport sect
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at around 20 kilogrammes of oil equ
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In the New Policies Scenario, polic
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CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN RESOURCES AND SUP
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Figure 8.2 Russian oil balance in
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Russian industrial groups (and ther
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subsequent updates, 6 IEA analysis
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Our USGS-based estimates have been
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9.6 mb/d throughout the period to 2
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incentives for companies to invest
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 8 - Russi
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Production in Eastern Siberia is pr
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Estimating decline rates at existin
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Natural gas Resources Proven reserv
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ecoverable resources suggest, Russi
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SPOTLIGHT © OECD/IEA, 2011 The las
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Figure 8.13 Changes in Russian nat
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Flaring The rate of utilisation of
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 8 - Russi
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Box 8.5 The “Northern Route” t
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information about project developme
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the Kansko-Achinsk basin and Easter
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not been affected by any change of
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Russia has significant uranium reso
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obstacle, as discussed for the coal
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The adoption of renewable technolog
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CHAPTER 9 IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIA’
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Figure 9.1 Structure of Russian ex
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Taken together, our assumption for
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in infrastructure for liquefied nat
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in the Middle East (see Chapter 3).
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There is similar evidence in the oi
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with the overall aim to decrease th
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Table 9.1 Main gas trade flows fro
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At the same time, the position of R
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Policies Scenario, so that they are
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Comparing this Outlook with Russian
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PART C OUTLOOK FOR COAL MARKETS PRE
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CHAPTER 10 COAL DEMAND PROSPECTS Tr
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Box 10.1 A decade of booming coal
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the imposition of a carbon price an
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Table 10.3 Summary of the main dri
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Figure 10.5 World crude steel prod
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under $200/tonne in nominal terms b
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Box 10.3 Coal-fired power generati
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The projections described above, an
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Table 10.4 Levelised electricity g
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Fuel choice in industry Coal has di
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ange of capital costs only for capa
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In the 450 Scenario, OECD coal dema
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 PCC plants, they
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Figure 10.16 Coal-fired generating
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coal demand rebounds in the short t
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energy intensity and carbon intensi
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Figure 10.20 New additions of powe
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 around 85% of the
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Figure 10.24 Coal-fired generating
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In the New Policies Scenario, coal
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over the projection period, as the
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urning for power generation. Load f
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CHAPTER 11 COAL SUPPLY AND INVESTME
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Table 11.1 Coal* production by typ
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in 2009 (Figure 11.2). Marginal cha
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Just under three-quarters, or nearl
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generally risen much less than inte
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and the United States have moved up
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Underground mining methods (longwal
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near the coast. Furthermore, bottle
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capacity in the next two to four ye
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exemptions and credits, grants for
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coal derivatives, which together al
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Table 11.6 Key figures for the 30
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Trade prospects In the New Policies
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Colombia, along with new entrants s
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freight, to connect the coal-fields
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monopoly, which is able to extract
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the west of China, together with in
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the past few years, especially of c
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Indonesian and South African steam
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coal sold at the mine-mouth. The co
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 rates, total coal
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their markets. Additionally, over t
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Figure 11.25 Coal production in So
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Figure 11.26 Har
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PART D SPECIAL TOPICS PREFACE Part
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CHAPTER 12 THE IMPLICATIONS OF LESS
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On the basis of a necessarily arbit
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of the construction starts in 2010,
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 SPOTLIGHT How did
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 the country’s 5
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Our projections of future nuclear p
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projected in the New Policies Scena
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Figure 12.4 Power generation by fu
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period 2011 to 2035 are higher by 1
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In short, to the extent that energy
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other generating options because of
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CHAPTER 13 ENERGY FOR ALL Financing
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 International con
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Table 13.1 People without access t
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Box 13.2 Measuring investment in m
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In the New Policies Scenario, aroun
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 13 - Ener
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significant progress in establishin
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most suitable option for all urban
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In the Energy for All Case, hydropo
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additional investment of $20 billio
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As well as the economic development
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to pay. In these areas, the share o
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Electricity access - financing mini
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y entrepreneurs providing solar por
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The government, through a national
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Multilateral and bilateral developm
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generation at an investment cost of
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including to end-users, to generate
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to be sufficiently expert regarding
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CHAPTER 14 DEVELOPMENTS IN ENERGY S
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G-20 and APEC leaders in 2009 and 2
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availability and foreign currency e
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subsidies, which may subsidise part
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Figure 14.3 Economic cost of fossi
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 14 - Deve
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In practice, the poor capture only
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that would follow from subsidy remo
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SPOTLIGHT Are the G-20 and APEC com
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lessens the burden of the rising co
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 While the return
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Measuring renewable-energy subsidie
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grow considerably in non-OECD count
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exploited earlier, but there are ex
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 in the United Sta
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As depicted in the 450 Scenario, mo
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lowest in Japan, due partly to elec
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 ANNEXES
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR SCENARIO PROJECT
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 World: Current Po
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World: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD: Current Pol
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OECD: Current Policies and 450 Scen
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Americas: Cu
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OECD Americas: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 United States: Cu
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United States: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Europe: Curr
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OECD Europe: Current Policies and 4
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 European Union: C
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European Union: Current Policies an
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Asia Oceania
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OECD Asia Oceania: Current Policies
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Japan: Current Po
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Japan: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Non-OECD: Current
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Non-OECD: Current Policies and 450
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 E. Europe/Eurasia
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E. Europe/Eurasia: Current Policies
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Russia: Current P
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Russia: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Non-OECD Asia: Cu
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Non-OECD Asia: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 China: Current Po
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China: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 India: Current Po
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India: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Middle East: Curr
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Middle East: Current Policies and 4
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Africa: Current P
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Africa: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Latin America: Cu
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Latin America: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Brazil: Current P
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Brazil: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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ANNEX B POLICIES AND MEASURES BY SC
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The specific policies adopted for d
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Annex B - Policie
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ANNEX C UNITS, DEFINITIONS, REGIONA
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Definitions Advan
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Coking coal Coking coal is a type o
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departure and port of arrival, and
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manufacturing and mining), transpor
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Latin America Argentina, Bolivia, B
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 CNG compressed na
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PSA PV RD&D RDD&D SAGD SCO SO 2 SRM
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ANNEX D REFERENCES PART A: Global e
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 O&GJ (Oil and Gas
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 — (2011a), East
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RosHydroMet (2011), Report on Clima
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Popel, O., et al.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Morse, R. and G.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 GPOBA (Global Par
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IEA, OECD (Organisaon for Economic
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© OECD/IEA, 2011
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© OECD/IEA, 2011
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