World Energy Outlook 2011 - IEA

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Africa: New Policies Scenario Electricity generation (TWh) Shares (%) CAAGR (%) 1990 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2009 2035 20092035 Total generation 316 630 762 885 999 1 124 1 259 100 100 2.7 Coal 165 250 291 321 328 330 327 40 26 1.0 Oil 41 79 73 67 55 45 41 13 3 2.5 Gas 45 186 245 294 329 355 380 29 30 2.8 Nuclear 8 13 13 13 32 53 59 2 5 6.1 Hydro 56 98 120 148 183 222 266 16 21 3.9 Biomass and waste 0 1 7 15 24 36 50 0 4 17.4 Wind 2 6 10 16 25 41 0 3 13.1 Geothermal 0 1 2 4 7 10 14 0 1 9.3 Solar PV 0 2 6 13 24 38 0 3 32.3 CSP 1 6 13 24 45 4 n.a. Marine n.a. Electrical capacity (GW) Shares (%) CAAGR (%) 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2009 2035 20092035 Total capacity 141 185 210 238 272 313 100 100 3.1 Coal 41 48 55 59 62 68 29 22 1.9 Oil 24 28 27 23 20 18 17 6 1.1 Gas 47 69 74 80 86 91 33 29 2.6 Nuclear 2 2 2 4 7 8 1 3 5.8 Hydro 25 31 39 47 57 68 18 22 4.0 Biomass and waste 1 2 3 5 6 8 1 3 9.0 Wind 1 3 5 7 11 17 1 6 12.7 Geothermal 0 0 1 1 2 2 0 1 10.0 Solar PV 0 2 4 8 14 21 0 7 32.7 CSP 0 2 3 6 11 4 n.a. Marine n.a. CO 2 emissions (Mt) Shares (%) CAAGR (%) © OECD/IEA, 2011 1990 2009 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2009 2035 20092035 Total CO 2 545 928 1 054 1 127 1 154 1 165 1 170 100 100 0.9 Coal 235 322 369 392 384 365 337 35 29 0.2 Oil 248 426 481 500 513 527 545 46 47 1.0 Gas 62 179 203 234 257 274 288 19 25 1.8 Power generation 212 405 449 487 485 464 438 100 100 0.3 Coal 152 246 279 299 292 272 246 61 56 0.0 Oil 35 62 57 51 41 33 30 15 7 2.8 Gas 25 97 113 136 151 159 163 24 37 2.0 TFC 302 485 558 589 616 644 672 100 100 1.3 Coal 83 76 90 91 91 90 89 16 13 0.6 Oil 201 349 405 428 451 473 493 72 73 1.3 Transport 105 230 270 287 305 322 337 47 50 1.5 Gas 18 60 63 69 74 81 90 12 13 1.6 606 World Energy Outlook 2011 - ANNEXES
Africa: Current Policies and 450 Scenarios Electricity generation (TWh) Shares (%) CAAGR (%) 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035 2035 20092035 Current Policies Scenario 450 Scenario CPS 450 CPS 450 Total generation 912 1 181 1 341 863 1 051 1 157 100 100 3.0 2.4 Coal 345 402 440 307 246 181 33 16 2.2 1.2 Oil 70 48 44 67 44 40 3 3 2.2 2.6 Gas 307 402 439 265 236 177 33 15 3.4 0.2 Nuclear 13 32 34 13 81 126 3 11 3.8 9.2 Hydro 142 206 245 154 232 277 18 24 3.6 4.1 Biomass and waste 10 30 45 18 45 66 3 6 16.9 18.7 Wind 10 21 28 12 48 97 2 8 11.5 16.9 Geothermal 4 8 11 4 14 22 1 2 8.5 11.2 Solar PV 6 18 27 10 39 61 2 5 30.6 34.8 CSP 4 15 28 14 66 109 2 9 n.a. n.a. Marine 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. Electrical capacity (GW) Shares (%) CAAGR (%) 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035 2035 20092035 Current Policies Scenario 450 Scenario CPS 450 CPS 450 Total capacity 214 282 323 216 298 369 100 100 3.3 3.8 Coal 59 74 85 53 55 61 26 17 2.8 1.5 Oil 27 20 18 27 20 18 6 5 1.0 1.0 Gas 78 100 109 74 81 81 34 22 3.3 2.1 Nuclear 2 4 5 2 11 17 1 5 3.5 8.8 Hydro 37 53 63 40 60 72 19 19 3.6 4.2 Biomass and waste 2 5 8 4 8 11 2 3 8.6 10.1 Wind 5 9 12 5 21 42 4 11 11.1 16.6 Geothermal 1 1 2 1 2 3 1 1 9.7 11.8 Solar PV 4 11 16 6 22 34 5 9 31.2 35.2 CSP 1 4 7 4 19 30 2 8 n.a. n.a. Marine 0 0 0 n.a. n.a. © OECD/IEA, 2011 CO 2 emissions (Mt) Shares (%) CAAGR (%) 2020 2030 2035 2020 2030 2035 2035 20092035 Current Policies Scenario 450 Scenario CPS 450 CPS 450 Total CO 2 1 165 1 284 1 352 1 045 818 675 100 100 1.5 1.2 Coal 415 448 468 372 198 98 35 15 1.4 4.5 Oil 508 545 570 458 418 400 42 59 1.1 0.2 Gas 241 292 313 215 202 177 23 26 2.2 0.0 Power generation 517 563 591 453 249 118 100 100 1.5 4.6 Coal 321 353 374 283 123 29 63 24 1.6 7.9 Oil 54 35 32 51 32 29 5 25 2.5 2.9 Gas 142 175 185 119 94 61 31 51 2.5 1.8 TFC 595 661 697 543 520 508 100 100 1.4 0.2 Coal 92 92 91 88 74 68 13 13 0.7 0.4 Oil 434 487 515 388 368 353 74 69 1.5 0.0 Transport 288 328 347 253 230 212 50 42 1.6 0.3 Gas 69 82 91 67 78 87 13 17 1.6 1.4 Annex A - Tables for scenario projections 607 A
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WORLD ENERGY 2 0 11 OUTLOOK
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FOREWORD It is the job of governmen
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS © OECD/IEA, 2011
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Alexey Biteryakov
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 James Jensen Jan-
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Jeff Piper Oleg P
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Liu Xiaoli Vitaly Yermakov Shigehir
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CONTEXT AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 1
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Trade 136 Trends in oil and gas pro
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9 Implications of Russia’s energy
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Electricity access - financing on-g
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3.5 Average annual change in transp
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5.19 Renewables grid integration co
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8.13 Changes in Russian natural gas
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11.14 Cumulative coal-supply invest
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List of tables Part A: GLOBAL ENERG
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10.5 CO 2 emissions from coal combu
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8.5 The “Northern Route” to mar
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Comments and questions are welcome
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “If we don’t
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Rising transport demand and upstrea
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Treading water or full steam ahead
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Achieving energy for all will not c
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PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PREFACE
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CHAPTER 1 CONTEXT AND ANALYTICAL FR
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East and North Africa, a region tha
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 1 - Conte
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The New Policies Scenario should no
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on welfare programmes. While this i
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6.8 billion in 2009 to around 8.6 b
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Energy prices The evolution of ener
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Natural gas prices Historically, na
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Figure 1.2 Ratio of average natura
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 In the 450 Scenar
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CHAPTER 2 ENERGY PROJECTIONS TO 203
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In the 450 Scenario, global energy
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Figure 2.4 World energy-related CO
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Box 2.1 The impact of lower near-t
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SPOTLIGHT © OECD/IEA, 2011 What ar
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Figure 2.7 Shares of energy source
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of the total in 2035, the absolute
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 In Latin America,
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adoption of hybrids (32% of passeng
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Figure 2.12 Incremental energy dem
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Figure 2.14 Incremental world ener
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production continue to clarify the
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stabilising thereafter, to settle a
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The answer will depend on China’s
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investment needs are not as high, b
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Energy-related emissions Greenhouse
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 2 - Energ
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CHAPTER 3 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK Will i
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the assumed higher GDP growth, howe
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Policies Scenario, OECD primary dem
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Chapter 13 for a discussion of ener
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if large-scale projects were succes
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Passenger light-duty vehicles Passe
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countries own a car today, while av
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Box 3.1 The future of car making T
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wait-and-see strategy in a still na
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eserves additions amounted to 29 bi
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Figure 3.15 World oil production i
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 By country, Iraq
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in production from older fields. Ru
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States (US DOE/EIA, 2011a). Of cour
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Europe’s production decline is we
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have acknowledged that the target l
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 this potential wi
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 3 - Oil m
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and most of the easily accessible o
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egions where international oil comp
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Trends in upstream spending differ
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Impact of deferred upstream investm
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good by other regions. Higher oil a
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atios of gas and coal prices to oil
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Oil demand falls much less in volum
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than offset by higher oil prices (a
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CHAPTER 4 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOO
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decreases through the projection pe
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Middle East (included in “other e
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Figure 4.4 Primary natural gas dem
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Table 4.3 Primary natural gas prod
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Table 4.4 Primary natural gas prod
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production growth in Iran is likely
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projections of the New Policies Sce
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of additional unconventional gas su
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SPOTLIGHT Do all roads lead to a Go
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CHAPTER 5 POWER AND RENEWABLES OUTL
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Around 80% of the growth in electri
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Figure 5.2 Share of world electric
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Figure 5.4 Incremental global coal
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driving the growth in this technolo
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wind power producer. Generation fro
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In OECD countries, the reduction in
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 5 - Power
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Box 5.1 Costs of integrating varia
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of renewables can also improve capa
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Focus on T&D infrastructure Robust
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years and this is set to continue.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 5 - Power
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total system integration costs (see
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systems, smart grids can also incre
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CHAPTER 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE 45
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Box 6.1 What is special about 2°C
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 was driven by eco
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Table 6.1 World anthropogenic gree
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over 6 000 terawatt hours (TWh) in
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Efficiency policies are by far the
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Union in the 450 Scenario). China a
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SPOTLIGHT The International Year of
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The power generation sector plays a
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 6 - Clima
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the total). 7 Refurbishment of buil
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which by 2035 are $42/tonne, or 38%
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Implications of delayed action This
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cumulative budgeted emissions of th
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of its technical lifetime before 20
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the case for transport, however, th
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Figure 6.17 Potential CO 2 emissio
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example, it would require an averag
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Figure 6.19 Change in global energ
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PART B OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIAN ENERGY P
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CHAPTER 7 RUSSIAN DOMESTIC ENERGY P
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(Urengoy and Yamburg) that have mad
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Figure 7.2 Energy production in Ru
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Trends in policies and governance T
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and those in Russian strategy docum
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Another target adopted by the Russi
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Figure 7.4 Total energy costs as a
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accounts for a significant share (F
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stricter building codes, are consid
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Figure 7.9 Primary energy savings
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this decline is projected to contin
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The current contribution of non-fos
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energy economy and the government c
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Figure 7.15 Age profile of install
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Reform efforts directed at the elec
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difficult to assess with any accura
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energy demand in the transport sect
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at around 20 kilogrammes of oil equ
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In the New Policies Scenario, polic
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CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN RESOURCES AND SUP
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Figure 8.2 Russian oil balance in
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Russian industrial groups (and ther
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subsequent updates, 6 IEA analysis
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Our USGS-based estimates have been
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9.6 mb/d throughout the period to 2
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incentives for companies to invest
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 8 - Russi
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Production in Eastern Siberia is pr
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Estimating decline rates at existin
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Natural gas Resources Proven reserv
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ecoverable resources suggest, Russi
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SPOTLIGHT © OECD/IEA, 2011 The las
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Figure 8.13 Changes in Russian nat
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Flaring The rate of utilisation of
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 8 - Russi
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Box 8.5 The “Northern Route” t
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information about project developme
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the Kansko-Achinsk basin and Easter
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not been affected by any change of
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Russia has significant uranium reso
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obstacle, as discussed for the coal
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The adoption of renewable technolog
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CHAPTER 9 IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIA’
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Figure 9.1 Structure of Russian ex
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Taken together, our assumption for
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in infrastructure for liquefied nat
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in the Middle East (see Chapter 3).
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There is similar evidence in the oi
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with the overall aim to decrease th
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Table 9.1 Main gas trade flows fro
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At the same time, the position of R
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Policies Scenario, so that they are
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Comparing this Outlook with Russian
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PART C OUTLOOK FOR COAL MARKETS PRE
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CHAPTER 10 COAL DEMAND PROSPECTS Tr
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Box 10.1 A decade of booming coal
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the imposition of a carbon price an
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Table 10.3 Summary of the main dri
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Figure 10.5 World crude steel prod
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under $200/tonne in nominal terms b
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Box 10.3 Coal-fired power generati
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The projections described above, an
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Table 10.4 Levelised electricity g
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Fuel choice in industry Coal has di
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ange of capital costs only for capa
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In the 450 Scenario, OECD coal dema
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 PCC plants, they
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Figure 10.16 Coal-fired generating
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coal demand rebounds in the short t
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energy intensity and carbon intensi
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Figure 10.20 New additions of powe
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 around 85% of the
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Figure 10.24 Coal-fired generating
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In the New Policies Scenario, coal
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over the projection period, as the
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urning for power generation. Load f
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CHAPTER 11 COAL SUPPLY AND INVESTME
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Table 11.1 Coal* production by typ
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in 2009 (Figure 11.2). Marginal cha
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Just under three-quarters, or nearl
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generally risen much less than inte
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and the United States have moved up
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Underground mining methods (longwal
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near the coast. Furthermore, bottle
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capacity in the next two to four ye
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exemptions and credits, grants for
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coal derivatives, which together al
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Table 11.6 Key figures for the 30
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Trade prospects In the New Policies
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Colombia, along with new entrants s
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freight, to connect the coal-fields
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monopoly, which is able to extract
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the west of China, together with in
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the past few years, especially of c
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Indonesian and South African steam
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coal sold at the mine-mouth. The co
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 rates, total coal
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their markets. Additionally, over t
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Figure 11.25 Coal production in So
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Figure 11.26 Har
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PART D SPECIAL TOPICS PREFACE Part
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CHAPTER 12 THE IMPLICATIONS OF LESS
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On the basis of a necessarily arbit
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of the construction starts in 2010,
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 SPOTLIGHT How did
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 the country’s 5
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Our projections of future nuclear p
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projected in the New Policies Scena
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Figure 12.4 Power generation by fu
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period 2011 to 2035 are higher by 1
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In short, to the extent that energy
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other generating options because of
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CHAPTER 13 ENERGY FOR ALL Financing
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 International con
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Table 13.1 People without access t
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Box 13.2 Measuring investment in m
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In the New Policies Scenario, aroun
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 13 - Ener
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significant progress in establishin
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most suitable option for all urban
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In the Energy for All Case, hydropo
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additional investment of $20 billio
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As well as the economic development
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to pay. In these areas, the share o
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Electricity access - financing mini
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y entrepreneurs providing solar por
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The government, through a national
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Multilateral and bilateral developm
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generation at an investment cost of
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including to end-users, to generate
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to be sufficiently expert regarding
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CHAPTER 14 DEVELOPMENTS IN ENERGY S
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G-20 and APEC leaders in 2009 and 2
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availability and foreign currency e
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subsidies, which may subsidise part
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Figure 14.3 Economic cost of fossi
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 14 - Deve
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In practice, the poor capture only
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that would follow from subsidy remo
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SPOTLIGHT Are the G-20 and APEC com
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lessens the burden of the rising co
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 While the return
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Measuring renewable-energy subsidie
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grow considerably in non-OECD count
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exploited earlier, but there are ex
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 in the United Sta
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As depicted in the 450 Scenario, mo
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lowest in Japan, due partly to elec
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 ANNEXES
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR SCENARIO PROJECT
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 World: Current Po
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World: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD: Current Pol
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OECD: Current Policies and 450 Scen
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Americas: Cu
Page 557 and 558: OECD Americas: Current Policies and
Page 559 and 560: © OECD/IEA, 2011 United States: Cu
Page 561 and 562: United States: Current Policies and
Page 563 and 564: © OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Europe: Curr
Page 565 and 566: OECD Europe: Current Policies and 4
Page 567 and 568: © OECD/IEA, 2011 European Union: C
Page 569 and 570: European Union: Current Policies an
Page 571 and 572: © OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Asia Oceania
Page 573 and 574: OECD Asia Oceania: Current Policies
Page 575 and 576: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Japan: Current Po
Page 577 and 578: Japan: Current Policies and 450 Sce
Page 579 and 580: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Non-OECD: Current
Page 581 and 582: Non-OECD: Current Policies and 450
Page 583 and 584: © OECD/IEA, 2011 E. Europe/Eurasia
Page 585 and 586: E. Europe/Eurasia: Current Policies
Page 587 and 588: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Russia: Current P
Page 589 and 590: Russia: Current Policies and 450 Sc
Page 591 and 592: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Non-OECD Asia: Cu
Page 593 and 594: Non-OECD Asia: Current Policies and
Page 595 and 596: © OECD/IEA, 2011 China: Current Po
Page 597 and 598: China: Current Policies and 450 Sce
Page 599 and 600: © OECD/IEA, 2011 India: Current Po
Page 601 and 602: India: Current Policies and 450 Sce
Page 603 and 604: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Middle East: Curr
Page 605 and 606: Middle East: Current Policies and 4
Page 607: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Africa: Current P
Page 611 and 612: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Latin America: Cu
Page 613 and 614: Latin America: Current Policies and
Page 615 and 616: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Brazil: Current P
Page 617 and 618: Brazil: Current Policies and 450 Sc
Page 619 and 620: ANNEX B POLICIES AND MEASURES BY SC
Page 621 and 622: The specific policies adopted for d
Page 623 and 624: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Annex B - Policie
Page 631 and 632: ANNEX C UNITS, DEFINITIONS, REGIONA
Page 633 and 634: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Definitions Advan
Page 635 and 636: Coking coal Coking coal is a type o
Page 637 and 638: departure and port of arrival, and
Page 639 and 640: manufacturing and mining), transpor
Page 641 and 642: Latin America Argentina, Bolivia, B
Page 643 and 644: © OECD/IEA, 2011 CNG compressed na
Page 645 and 646: PSA PV RD&D RDD&D SAGD SCO SO 2 SRM
Page 647 and 648: ANNEX D REFERENCES PART A: Global e
Page 649 and 650: © OECD/IEA, 2011 O&GJ (Oil and Gas
Page 651 and 652: © OECD/IEA, 2011 — (2011a), East
Page 653 and 654: RosHydroMet (2011), Report on Clima
Page 655 and 656: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Popel, O., et al.
Page 657 and 658: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Morse, R. and G.
Page 659 and 660:
© OECD/IEA, 2011 GPOBA (Global Par
Page 661 and 662:
IEA, OECD (Organisaon for Economic
Page 663 and 664:
© OECD/IEA, 2011
Page 665 and 666:
© OECD/IEA, 2011
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