World Energy Outlook 2011 - IEA

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© OECD/IEA, 2011
PART A GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS PREFACE Part A of this WEO (Chapters 1 to 6) presents a comprehensive overview of our energy projections to 2035, in a fuel-by-fuel format which will be familiar to regular readers. As last year, we present the results of modelling three scenarios: the Current Policies Scenario, the New Policies Scenario and the 450 Scenario (a title derived from the objective of limiting the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere to no more than 450 parts per million). We also examine a number of plausible variations on these central scenarios: a Low GDP Case, a Deferred Investment Case (deferred investment in oil in the Middle East and North Africa), a Golden Age of Gas (a more optimistic scenario for natural gas, summarised and updated from a separate publication in the WEO series in June 2011), a Delayed Carbon Capture and Storage Case, and a Low Nuclear Case (see Part D, Chapter 12). Chapter 1 describes the methodological framework and the assumptions that underpin the scenarios, commenting on changes since WEO-2010. Chapter 2 surveys global trends in the demand and supply of all fuels in all scenarios, but with a special emphasis on the New Policies Scenario. The results are given fuel-by-fuel, sector-by-sector and region-byregion. Production prospects, investment in the energy supply infrastructure, changes in inter-regional trade and the outlook for energy-related emissions are all covered. Chapters 3 to 6 deal in detail with oil, natural gas, electricity and renewables and climate change (with special emphasis in Chapter 6 on the 450 Scenario). This year coal has been given special attention in its own right (see Part C). © OECD/IEA, 2011
Page 1 and 2: Please note that this PDF is subjec
Page 3 and 4: WORLD ENERGY 2 0 11 OUTLOOK
Page 5 and 6: FOREWORD It is the job of governmen
Page 7 and 8: ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS © OECD/IEA, 2011
Page 9 and 10: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Alexey Biteryakov
Page 11 and 12: © OECD/IEA, 2011 James Jensen Jan-
Page 13 and 14: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Jeff Piper Oleg P
Page 15 and 16: Liu Xiaoli Vitaly Yermakov Shigehir
Page 17 and 18: CONTEXT AND ANALYTICAL FRAMEWORK 1
Page 19 and 20: Trade 136 Trends in oil and gas pro
Page 21 and 22: 9 Implications of Russia’s energy
Page 23 and 24: Electricity access - financing on-g
Page 25 and 26: 3.5 Average annual change in transp
Page 27 and 28: 5.19 Renewables grid integration co
Page 29 and 30: 8.13 Changes in Russian natural gas
Page 31 and 32: 11.14 Cumulative coal-supply invest
Page 33 and 34: List of tables Part A: GLOBAL ENERG
Page 35 and 36: 10.5 CO 2 emissions from coal combu
Page 37 and 38: 8.5 The “Northern Route” to mar
Page 39 and 40: Comments and questions are welcome
Page 41 and 42: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY “If we don’t
Page 43 and 44: Rising transport demand and upstrea
Page 45 and 46: Treading water or full steam ahead
Page 47: Achieving energy for all will not c
Page 51 and 52: CHAPTER 1 CONTEXT AND ANALYTICAL FR
Page 53 and 54: East and North Africa, a region tha
Page 55 and 56: © OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 1 - Conte
Page 57 and 58: The New Policies Scenario should no
Page 59 and 60: on welfare programmes. While this i
Page 61 and 62: 6.8 billion in 2009 to around 8.6 b
Page 63 and 64: Energy prices The evolution of ener
Page 65 and 66: Natural gas prices Historically, na
Page 67 and 68: Figure 1.2 Ratio of average natura
Page 69 and 70: © OECD/IEA, 2011 In the 450 Scenar
Page 71 and 72: CHAPTER 2 ENERGY PROJECTIONS TO 203
Page 73 and 74: In the 450 Scenario, global energy
Page 75 and 76: Figure 2.4 World energy-related CO
Page 77 and 78: Box 2.1 The impact of lower near-t
Page 79 and 80: SPOTLIGHT © OECD/IEA, 2011 What ar
Page 81 and 82: Figure 2.7 Shares of energy source
Page 83 and 84: of the total in 2035, the absolute
Page 85 and 86: © OECD/IEA, 2011 In Latin America,
Page 87 and 88: adoption of hybrids (32% of passeng
Page 89 and 90: Figure 2.12 Incremental energy dem
Page 91 and 92: Figure 2.14 Incremental world ener
Page 93 and 94: production continue to clarify the
Page 95 and 96: stabilising thereafter, to settle a
Page 97 and 98: The answer will depend on China’s
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investment needs are not as high, b
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Energy-related emissions Greenhouse
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 2 - Energ
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CHAPTER 3 OIL MARKET OUTLOOK Will i
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the assumed higher GDP growth, howe
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Policies Scenario, OECD primary dem
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Chapter 13 for a discussion of ener
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if large-scale projects were succes
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Passenger light-duty vehicles Passe
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countries own a car today, while av
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Box 3.1 The future of car making T
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wait-and-see strategy in a still na
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eserves additions amounted to 29 bi
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Figure 3.15 World oil production i
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 By country, Iraq
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in production from older fields. Ru
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States (US DOE/EIA, 2011a). Of cour
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Europe’s production decline is we
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have acknowledged that the target l
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 this potential wi
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 3 - Oil m
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and most of the easily accessible o
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egions where international oil comp
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Trends in upstream spending differ
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Impact of deferred upstream investm
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good by other regions. Higher oil a
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atios of gas and coal prices to oil
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Oil demand falls much less in volum
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than offset by higher oil prices (a
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CHAPTER 4 NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOO
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decreases through the projection pe
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Middle East (included in “other e
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Figure 4.4 Primary natural gas dem
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Table 4.3 Primary natural gas prod
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Table 4.4 Primary natural gas prod
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production growth in Iran is likely
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projections of the New Policies Sce
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of additional unconventional gas su
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SPOTLIGHT Do all roads lead to a Go
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CHAPTER 5 POWER AND RENEWABLES OUTL
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Around 80% of the growth in electri
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Figure 5.2 Share of world electric
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Figure 5.4 Incremental global coal
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driving the growth in this technolo
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wind power producer. Generation fro
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In OECD countries, the reduction in
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 5 - Power
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Box 5.1 Costs of integrating varia
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of renewables can also improve capa
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Focus on T&D infrastructure Robust
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years and this is set to continue.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 5 - Power
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total system integration costs (see
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systems, smart grids can also incre
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CHAPTER 6 CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE 45
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Box 6.1 What is special about 2°C
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 was driven by eco
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Table 6.1 World anthropogenic gree
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over 6 000 terawatt hours (TWh) in
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Efficiency policies are by far the
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Union in the 450 Scenario). China a
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SPOTLIGHT The International Year of
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The power generation sector plays a
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 6 - Clima
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the total). 7 Refurbishment of buil
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which by 2035 are $42/tonne, or 38%
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Implications of delayed action This
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cumulative budgeted emissions of th
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of its technical lifetime before 20
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the case for transport, however, th
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Figure 6.17 Potential CO 2 emissio
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example, it would require an averag
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Figure 6.19 Change in global energ
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PART B OUTLOOK FOR RUSSIAN ENERGY P
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CHAPTER 7 RUSSIAN DOMESTIC ENERGY P
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(Urengoy and Yamburg) that have mad
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Figure 7.2 Energy production in Ru
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Trends in policies and governance T
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and those in Russian strategy docum
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Another target adopted by the Russi
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Figure 7.4 Total energy costs as a
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accounts for a significant share (F
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stricter building codes, are consid
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Figure 7.9 Primary energy savings
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this decline is projected to contin
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The current contribution of non-fos
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energy economy and the government c
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Figure 7.15 Age profile of install
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Reform efforts directed at the elec
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difficult to assess with any accura
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energy demand in the transport sect
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at around 20 kilogrammes of oil equ
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In the New Policies Scenario, polic
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CHAPTER 8 RUSSIAN RESOURCES AND SUP
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Figure 8.2 Russian oil balance in
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Russian industrial groups (and ther
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subsequent updates, 6 IEA analysis
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Our USGS-based estimates have been
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9.6 mb/d throughout the period to 2
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incentives for companies to invest
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 8 - Russi
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Production in Eastern Siberia is pr
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Estimating decline rates at existin
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Natural gas Resources Proven reserv
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ecoverable resources suggest, Russi
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SPOTLIGHT © OECD/IEA, 2011 The las
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Figure 8.13 Changes in Russian nat
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Flaring The rate of utilisation of
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 8 - Russi
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Box 8.5 The “Northern Route” t
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information about project developme
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the Kansko-Achinsk basin and Easter
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not been affected by any change of
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Russia has significant uranium reso
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obstacle, as discussed for the coal
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The adoption of renewable technolog
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CHAPTER 9 IMPLICATIONS OF RUSSIA’
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Figure 9.1 Structure of Russian ex
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Taken together, our assumption for
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in infrastructure for liquefied nat
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in the Middle East (see Chapter 3).
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There is similar evidence in the oi
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with the overall aim to decrease th
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Table 9.1 Main gas trade flows fro
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At the same time, the position of R
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Policies Scenario, so that they are
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Comparing this Outlook with Russian
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PART C OUTLOOK FOR COAL MARKETS PRE
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CHAPTER 10 COAL DEMAND PROSPECTS Tr
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Box 10.1 A decade of booming coal
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the imposition of a carbon price an
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Table 10.3 Summary of the main dri
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Figure 10.5 World crude steel prod
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under $200/tonne in nominal terms b
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Box 10.3 Coal-fired power generati
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The projections described above, an
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Table 10.4 Levelised electricity g
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Fuel choice in industry Coal has di
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ange of capital costs only for capa
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In the 450 Scenario, OECD coal dema
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 PCC plants, they
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Figure 10.16 Coal-fired generating
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coal demand rebounds in the short t
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energy intensity and carbon intensi
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Figure 10.20 New additions of powe
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 around 85% of the
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Figure 10.24 Coal-fired generating
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In the New Policies Scenario, coal
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over the projection period, as the
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urning for power generation. Load f
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CHAPTER 11 COAL SUPPLY AND INVESTME
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Table 11.1 Coal* production by typ
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in 2009 (Figure 11.2). Marginal cha
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Just under three-quarters, or nearl
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generally risen much less than inte
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and the United States have moved up
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Underground mining methods (longwal
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near the coast. Furthermore, bottle
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capacity in the next two to four ye
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exemptions and credits, grants for
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coal derivatives, which together al
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Table 11.6 Key figures for the 30
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Trade prospects In the New Policies
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Colombia, along with new entrants s
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freight, to connect the coal-fields
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monopoly, which is able to extract
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the west of China, together with in
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the past few years, especially of c
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Indonesian and South African steam
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coal sold at the mine-mouth. The co
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 rates, total coal
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their markets. Additionally, over t
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Figure 11.25 Coal production in So
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Figure 11.26 Har
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PART D SPECIAL TOPICS PREFACE Part
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CHAPTER 12 THE IMPLICATIONS OF LESS
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On the basis of a necessarily arbit
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of the construction starts in 2010,
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 SPOTLIGHT How did
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 the country’s 5
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Our projections of future nuclear p
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projected in the New Policies Scena
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Figure 12.4 Power generation by fu
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period 2011 to 2035 are higher by 1
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In short, to the extent that energy
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other generating options because of
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CHAPTER 13 ENERGY FOR ALL Financing
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 International con
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Table 13.1 People without access t
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Box 13.2 Measuring investment in m
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In the New Policies Scenario, aroun
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 13 - Ener
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significant progress in establishin
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most suitable option for all urban
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In the Energy for All Case, hydropo
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additional investment of $20 billio
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As well as the economic development
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to pay. In these areas, the share o
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Electricity access - financing mini
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y entrepreneurs providing solar por
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The government, through a national
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Multilateral and bilateral developm
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generation at an investment cost of
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including to end-users, to generate
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to be sufficiently expert regarding
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CHAPTER 14 DEVELOPMENTS IN ENERGY S
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G-20 and APEC leaders in 2009 and 2
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availability and foreign currency e
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subsidies, which may subsidise part
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Figure 14.3 Economic cost of fossi
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Chapter 14 - Deve
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In practice, the poor capture only
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that would follow from subsidy remo
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SPOTLIGHT Are the G-20 and APEC com
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lessens the burden of the rising co
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 While the return
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Measuring renewable-energy subsidie
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grow considerably in non-OECD count
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exploited earlier, but there are ex
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 in the United Sta
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As depicted in the 450 Scenario, mo
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lowest in Japan, due partly to elec
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 ANNEXES
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ANNEX A TABLES FOR SCENARIO PROJECT
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 World: Current Po
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World: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD: Current Pol
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OECD: Current Policies and 450 Scen
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Americas: Cu
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OECD Americas: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 United States: Cu
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United States: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Europe: Curr
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OECD Europe: Current Policies and 4
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 European Union: C
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European Union: Current Policies an
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 OECD Asia Oceania
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OECD Asia Oceania: Current Policies
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Japan: Current Po
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Japan: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Non-OECD: Current
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Non-OECD: Current Policies and 450
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 E. Europe/Eurasia
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E. Europe/Eurasia: Current Policies
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Russia: Current P
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Russia: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Non-OECD Asia: Cu
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Non-OECD Asia: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 China: Current Po
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China: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 India: Current Po
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India: Current Policies and 450 Sce
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Middle East: Curr
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Middle East: Current Policies and 4
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Africa: Current P
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Africa: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Latin America: Cu
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Latin America: Current Policies and
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Brazil: Current P
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Brazil: Current Policies and 450 Sc
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ANNEX B POLICIES AND MEASURES BY SC
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The specific policies adopted for d
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Annex B - Policie
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ANNEX C UNITS, DEFINITIONS, REGIONA
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Definitions Advan
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Coking coal Coking coal is a type o
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departure and port of arrival, and
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manufacturing and mining), transpor
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Latin America Argentina, Bolivia, B
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 CNG compressed na
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PSA PV RD&D RDD&D SAGD SCO SO 2 SRM
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ANNEX D REFERENCES PART A: Global e
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 O&GJ (Oil and Gas
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 — (2011a), East
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RosHydroMet (2011), Report on Clima
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Popel, O., et al.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 Morse, R. and G.
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© OECD/IEA, 2011 GPOBA (Global Par
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IEA, OECD (Organisaon for Economic
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© OECD/IEA, 2011
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© OECD/IEA, 2011
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