World Energy Outlook 2011 - IEA

adoption of hybrids (32% of passenger light-duty vehicle sales in 2035) and electric vehicles
and plug-in hybrids (14% of sales in the same year). Nuclear power accounts for 33% of
electricity generated in 2035, with natural gas accounting for 30% and coal 15%, though
these projections must be regarded as particularly tentative, pending the outcome of public
and policy debate in Japan.
2
Sectoral trends
Energy demand in the power sector was affected by the global recession, but only slightly,
and continues to grow more strongly than in any other sector in the New Policies Scenario.
Over the Outlook period, energy demand in this sector increases by 57%, from about
4 600 Mtoe in 2009 to just below 7 200 Mtoe in 2035, and accounts for over half of all growth
in primary energy demand (see Chapter 5 for the power sector outlook). Of the energy
demand growth for power generation, 87% is in non-OECD countries. A slightly improved
economic outlook and lower gas prices are important drivers of increased energy demand
in this sector, relative to WEO-2010. A negative shift in stance toward nuclear power in
some countries and the prospects for carbon pricing in many countries are also important
influences. The power sector accounts for 38% of global primary energy demand in 2009 and
this share increases to 42% in 2035.
There is a slightly stronger outlook for fossil fuels in the power sector compared with
last year. Projected demand for coal has increased, as attitudes towards nuclear power
and carbon pricing shift, and so has demand for natural gas, mainly as a result of China’s
12 th Five-Year Plan and the presumption of lower gas prices. While coal demand continues
to be heavily focused on power generation, demand from the power sector accounts for
less than half of total natural gas demand in 2035 (Figure 2.11). Over the Outlook period,
the increase in demand for coal in power generation in non-OECD countries is more than
three-times as great as the corresponding decline in the OECD.
Figure 2.11 World primary energy demand by fuel and sector in the
New Policies Scenario, 2035
Mtoe
5 000
4 000
3 000
2 000
Other*
Buildings
Transport
Industry
Power
generaon
1 000
© OECD/IEA, 2011
0
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Biomass
and waste
*Other includes other energy sector, agriculture and non-energy use.
Other
renewables
Chapter 2 - Energy projections to 2035 85