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Lecture Series in Mobile Telecommunications and Networks (1583KB)

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To the edge of chaos?<br />

The complexity <strong>and</strong> the promise of a technology <strong>and</strong> service-neutral future<br />

referr<strong>in</strong>g to this 50:50 notion, where broadcasters would have 50 per cent dividend from the digital dividend <strong>and</strong> 50 per<br />

cent would go to the wider public. Once aga<strong>in</strong>, there was great emphasis on harmonisation, which has given<br />

enormous benefit. However, I have to say that I cannot agree with that tighten<strong>in</strong>g down of th<strong>in</strong>gs that she is<br />

suggest<strong>in</strong>g, or the fact that everyth<strong>in</strong>g has to be harmonised <strong>in</strong> this way. There is space for this, although the issues you<br />

mentioned are very real. I do not mean that as a cop-out, because it is the reality.<br />

Dr David Cleevely (CRFS Ltd): I am on the Ofcom Spectrum Advisory Board <strong>and</strong> I was wonder<strong>in</strong>g whether I have<br />

perhaps spent a little too much time with Stephen because my question is very similar to his <strong>in</strong> its fundamentals,<br />

although it is a little more theoretical than that. It is about your po<strong>in</strong>t on the edge of chaos <strong>and</strong> the complexity which<br />

you are advocat<strong>in</strong>g.<br />

To reach any optima, you have to have a search space or a cost function, or whatever we are referr<strong>in</strong>g to, that is<br />

reasonably smooth <strong>and</strong> cont<strong>in</strong>uous. I am not clear that your Rubik’s cube satisfies any of those conditions. It looks like a<br />

highly serrated l<strong>and</strong>scape to me. When you look at the comb<strong>in</strong>atorial auctions, the amount of chunter<strong>in</strong>g through of<br />

calculations that you need to do - simply because actually search<strong>in</strong>g that space is very difficult - is an <strong>in</strong>dicator of<br />

someth<strong>in</strong>g perhaps a little worry<strong>in</strong>g. It is not only that it is rather difficult to f<strong>in</strong>d where the optima might lie but,<br />

secondly, the system itself might actually exhibit some pretty pathological behaviours. That is where we l<strong>in</strong>k to the<br />

bank<strong>in</strong>g system because we can see for ourselves a truly pathological behaviour that this developed, as a result of<br />

precisely – precisely – that <strong>in</strong>herent property of the system.<br />

What is your gut feel<strong>in</strong>g about this? Otherwise, Viviane Red<strong>in</strong>g’s 50:50 is actually quite a good, pragmatic approach.<br />

If you tie the system down enough, so that it can’t w<strong>and</strong>er off <strong>in</strong> some state space fashion, <strong>in</strong>to some really nasty state,<br />

then perhaps that is a better way of h<strong>and</strong>l<strong>in</strong>g th<strong>in</strong>gs.<br />

L<strong>in</strong>da Doyle: Here, I am not talk<strong>in</strong>g about no regulation, for a start - I just want to clear that up - but it is the light touch<br />

of regulation that I am advocat<strong>in</strong>g. In the last week, I admit that I have been th<strong>in</strong>k<strong>in</strong>g that this is a very strange time to<br />

be advocat<strong>in</strong>g the k<strong>in</strong>d of th<strong>in</strong>gs I am, given everyth<strong>in</strong>g that has happened <strong>in</strong> the world. The bank<strong>in</strong>g system, as you<br />

po<strong>in</strong>t out, is a very good example of that. However, the bank<strong>in</strong>g system is also an example of be<strong>in</strong>g completely<br />

unregulated, with no rules, <strong>and</strong> people turn<strong>in</strong>g a bl<strong>in</strong>d eye <strong>and</strong> not polic<strong>in</strong>g it, <strong>and</strong> not check<strong>in</strong>g up on the rules that did<br />

exist. In that sense, it is also an unfair comparison.<br />

My gut reaction is that I agree with you, that there need to be anchor po<strong>in</strong>ts. Th<strong>in</strong>gs need to be tied down, or th<strong>in</strong>gs<br />

need to be elim<strong>in</strong>ated. I believe that the best way to do that is to push out the boundaries <strong>in</strong> imag<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g, <strong>and</strong> then pull<br />

them back <strong>in</strong>, rather than go<strong>in</strong>g the other way – <strong>and</strong>, for me, the system goes the other way. It starts with all the good<br />

th<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>and</strong> the flaws <strong>and</strong> it <strong>in</strong>crementally tries to th<strong>in</strong>k out from there, <strong>and</strong> that is why I th<strong>in</strong>k we should go the other<br />

way.<br />

I do not th<strong>in</strong>k you will get out to the edge of chaos, if you want to accept that as a scientific term of where it is. I do not<br />

th<strong>in</strong>k you will get near there, but you need to th<strong>in</strong>k about be<strong>in</strong>g there <strong>and</strong> come back <strong>in</strong>.<br />

Matthew Postgate (BBC): I have a comment <strong>and</strong> a question – perhaps a softer question than some of the<br />

eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g-focused ones.<br />

I thought your talk was fasc<strong>in</strong>at<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> I really support these k<strong>in</strong>ds of ideas. We have a long way to go, but perhaps we<br />

are closer than we may have realised. Hav<strong>in</strong>g the privilege of work<strong>in</strong>g for the BBC means that I work with arts<br />

graduates <strong>and</strong> science graduates, across that particular spectrum. Hav<strong>in</strong>g had that experience, my observation is that<br />

where you promote competition at one end of the value cha<strong>in</strong>, you tend to restrict it somewhere else. Some people<br />

feel that multiple distribution technologies are a good th<strong>in</strong>g but, if you are there try<strong>in</strong>g to create editorial propositions<br />

on multiple systems, you end up with lowest common denom<strong>in</strong>ator approaches which are suboptimal, <strong>and</strong> vice versa<br />

with reality issues. Com<strong>in</strong>g from the research <strong>in</strong>stitute that you do, this might be someth<strong>in</strong>g you have already<br />

considered.<br />

The Royal Academy of Eng<strong>in</strong>eer<strong>in</strong>g 39

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