Evaluation of General Budget Support: Synthesis Report - Belgium

Evaluation of GBS – Synthesis Report
risks are the least well addressed so far in the evolving PGBS design. As noted, it is too soon to
expect a discernible PGBS impact on poverty in Nicaragua.
Rwanda
Overview of Inputs
4.11 The first PGBS funds for Rwanda were disbursed in 2000. In 2004 four donors were
disbursing PGBS: the EC, Sweden, the UK and the World Bank. PGBS funding has fluctuated,
but overall has increased from about 4% of total ODA in 2000 to about 10% in 2003, and an
exceptional 26% in 2004. In this period, PGBS funds varied between 12% and 48% of
government current expenditures. There is controversy as to whether the increased
disbursements of PGBS have added to or substituted for project aid. Government informants
perceive a degree of substitution as donors transfer project funding into PGBS. The donors
themselves maintain that, taking account of their staffing constraints, they could not have
disbursed an equivalent volume through projects.
Overview of Conclusions
4.12 While not the driving factor, PGBS played an actively supportive role in enhancing
harmonisation and alignment. Conditionality is the least harmonised input, and this has
implications in terms of uncertainty of PGBS disbursements for the government. PGBS has
played a significant role in improving public finance management systems: PGBS technical
assistance and policy dialogue in particular have made a strong contribution to PFM system
development, and more generally to the systemic capacity of government. There were
generally positive flow-of-funds effects on the volume and efficiency of public expenditures.
However, limitations on the pro-poor nature of priority expenditure have implications for PGBS
influence on public expenditure outcomes. This detracts from the pro-poor nature of service
delivery and the effect of PGBS on this. On balance, taking account of both flow-of-funds and
other effects, PGBS has had a positive effect on the non-income dimensions of poverty
reduction. The public action strategies which PGBS supports have only recently begun to focus
more directly on growth and income poverty reduction. A key sustainability issue is the political
nature of aid and PGBS in particular, considering Rwanda’s geopolitical situation.
Uganda
Overview of Inputs
4.13 The first PGBS funds were disbursed in 1998 and in 2004 there were 13 donors
disbursing PGBS: Austria, Canada, Denmark, the EC, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy,
Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, the UK and the World Bank. Between 2000 and 2003 there was
a large absolute and relative increase in programme aid with an increasing number of donors
using budget support as part of their aid portfolios and a stagnation of funds given as project
support. Programme aid reached, and remains at, well over 50% of on-budget aid flows. PGBS
funding has risen to a level of about 25% of central government expenditure, while combined
increases in programme aid amounted to 31% of the real increases in total public expenditures
between 1997/98 and 2003/04.
Overview of Conclusions
4.14 With an exceptional degree of government initiative, and beginning with a home-grown
poverty reduction strategy, PGBS has been a powerful support to the strengthening of planning
and financial management and to the expansion of service delivery (including support to
decentralisation). A relative and absolute shift to PGBS, far larger in scale and duration than in
the other evaluation countries, contributed significantly to increased alignment with government
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