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ROGER TYM & PARTNERS<br />
Fairfax House<br />
15 Fulwood Place<br />
London WC1V 6HU<br />
t (020) 7831 2711<br />
f (020) 7831 7653<br />
e london@tymconsult.com<br />
w www.tymconsult.com<br />
This document is formatted for double-sided printing.<br />
P1768
CONTENTS<br />
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY............................................................................................i-iii<br />
1 INTRODUCTION.......................................................................................................... 1<br />
Context............................................................................................................................1<br />
Study Approach ..............................................................................................................1<br />
Structure of Report..........................................................................................................2<br />
2 POLICY REVIEW......................................................................................................... 3<br />
National Spatial Strategy.................................................................................................3<br />
National Development Plan.............................................................................................4<br />
Retail Planning Guidelines 2000-2005............................................................................4<br />
Regional Planning Guidelines for the South West Region ..............................................5<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> Area Strategic Plan (CASP) 2001-2020..................................................................5<br />
The North and West <strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Plan 2002 to 2020...................................................6<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study (CSRS) 2002.......................................................................7<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> County Development Plan 2003 .............................................................................8<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Development Plan 2004 ................................................................................10<br />
Draft <strong>City</strong> Centre Retail Strategy and Action Plan 2007 ................................................10<br />
3 THE RETAIL HIERARCHY......................................................................................... 11<br />
Introduction ...................................................................................................................11<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Centre............................................................................................................14<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Suburbs .........................................................................................................14<br />
Outer Metropolitan Area................................................................................................16<br />
Ring Towns ...................................................................................................................17<br />
County Towns ...............................................................................................................19<br />
Retail Warehousing.......................................................................................................21<br />
Summary.......................................................................................................................21<br />
4 SHOPPING PATTERNS ............................................................................................ 23<br />
Introduction ...................................................................................................................23<br />
The Shoppers ...............................................................................................................23<br />
The Household Survey..................................................................................................25<br />
5 DEMAND ANALYSIS ................................................................................................. 31<br />
Introduction ...................................................................................................................31<br />
Comparison Expenditure Patterns ................................................................................31<br />
Convenience Goods......................................................................................................36<br />
6 STRATEGY................................................................................................................ 41<br />
Introduction ...................................................................................................................41<br />
Distribution of New Comparison Goods Floorspace......................................................41<br />
Distribution of New Convenience Goods Floorspace ....................................................43<br />
Retail Hierarchy ............................................................................................................44<br />
Phasing.........................................................................................................................48<br />
Specialist Retail Formats ..............................................................................................49<br />
APPENDICES<br />
Appendix 1 : Population Projections<br />
Appendix 2 : Retail Commitments<br />
Appendix 3 : Survey and Questionnaires<br />
Appendix 4 : Quantitative Assessment of Retail Spending<br />
Appendix 5 : Guidance on Undertaking Retail Impact Assessments
<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY<br />
Context<br />
1 This Strategic Retail Study updates that previously undertaken for the <strong>City</strong> and the<br />
County in 2002. The study was completed in parallel with work on the CASP<br />
strategy update and will inform the current reviews of the Development Plans for the<br />
<strong>City</strong> and County.<br />
2 The joint <strong>City</strong> and County retail strategy set out in the existing Development Plans<br />
acknowledges <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre as the primary retail centre in the hierarchy and the<br />
focus for comparison goods retail development. The joint strategy seeks to control<br />
the expansion of the suburban district centres so that planned development in the<br />
<strong>City</strong> centre and the Metropolitan towns can be achieved. Retail growth in the Ring<br />
and County towns is to reflect planned population growth.<br />
3 The need for additional retailing will be driven both by changing consumer<br />
expenditure and population. Between 2002 and 2006 the population of the <strong>City</strong> and<br />
County grew by 1.82% per annum and is projected to continue to increase at a<br />
marginally lesser rate up to 2020. The National Spatial Strategy provides a<br />
strategic emphasis for the promotion of investment and development of <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong><br />
and County as an expanded Atlantic Gateway. Particularly strong economic growth<br />
and housing development is anticipated within the Metropolitan Area. Outside the<br />
Metropolitan Area, Mallow is to be a hub town.<br />
The Hierachy<br />
4 There is a total of 384,625 square metres of net retail floorspace within the <strong>City</strong> and<br />
the County. A little under three quarters is comparison goods space and a little over<br />
a quarter is convenience goods space. Some 22 per cent of total retail space is in<br />
the <strong>City</strong> centre and 15 per cent is in the suburbs. The remainder is distributed<br />
relatively evenly elsewhere in the suburbs and the County. About a quarter of retail<br />
provision is located in out-of-centre locations as free standing stores or retail<br />
warehouse parks. The location of centres within the retail hierarchy is shown in<br />
Figure 3.1 on page 13.<br />
Table 1 : Distribution of Net Sales Retail Floorspace (July 2007)<br />
Comparison<br />
(m 2 net)<br />
Convenience<br />
(m 2 net)<br />
Total<br />
(m 2 net)<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Centre 73,765 11,005 84,770<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> Suburbs 38,760 21,090 59,850<br />
Outer Metro Area 25,275 23,930 49,205<br />
Ring Towns 30,995 18,705 49,700<br />
County Towns 28,850 18,925 47,775<br />
Out-of-Centre 3,830 7,740 11,570<br />
Retail Warehouses 81,755 - 81,755<br />
TOTAL 283,230 101,395 384,625<br />
5 <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre and Mahon Point are the main comparison goods shopping<br />
destinations within the Study Area. In combination they attract about two thirds of<br />
comparison goods spending. The <strong>City</strong> centre and Mahon Point also capture trade<br />
from outside the <strong>City</strong> and County. The survey of shoppers suggests that 9 per cent<br />
of <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> shoppers and 5 per cent of Mahon Point shoppers live outside the<br />
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Study Area. The centres in the Outer Metropolitan Area and elsewhere in <strong>Cork</strong><br />
County provide a more limited range of comparison goods. Effectively they serve<br />
the main food shopping trip and provide for relatively localized comparison goods<br />
needs.<br />
Future Retail Requirements<br />
6 Future requirements for additional retail provision are driven by population growth<br />
and changes in consumer spending on shopping. Consumer spending per capita in<br />
the Study Area is higher than the national average and generally higher than the<br />
other conurbations except Greater Dublin. For the Study Area as a whole we<br />
project an increase of €574 million of convenience goods spending to support<br />
additional turnover within existing shops and new retail development – i.e excluding<br />
SFT (special forms of trading). Similarly, for comparison goods we project an<br />
increase of €2,269 million, including potential inflows from outside the County.<br />
7 Clearly not all this expenditure growth will be available for new development; some<br />
will go to currently committed retail proposals which are under construction or have<br />
planning permission, and some of the growth in consumer spending will be<br />
absorbed by sales density growth within existing shops which over time effectively<br />
enhance their productivity. Overall we estimate a surplus of potential convenience<br />
goods spending to support new development of some €410 million by 2020; the<br />
corresponding figure for comparison goods shops is €1,639 million. In Table 2 we<br />
set out our recommended distribution of additional floorspace in response to<br />
spending changes and reflecting the different sales densities which are likely to be<br />
achieved for the main retail formats in different locations.<br />
Table 2 : Strategy For Future Development 2007 – 2020 (m 2 net)<br />
Convenience<br />
Comparison<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Centre } 12,040 77,460<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> Suburbs } 26,580<br />
Outer Metro Area 27,440 22,090<br />
Ring Towns 5,590 19,170<br />
Other County <strong>Cork</strong> 5,860 20,470<br />
Retail Warehouses - 93,440<br />
TOTAL 50,930 259,210<br />
Notes: (1) These guidelines are rounded to the nearest 10 square metres<br />
(2) The areas shown for convenience goods are an average of the large format and<br />
medium sized supermarket format scenarios<br />
(3) Figures for the <strong>City</strong> centre include Docklands and other neighbourhood centres<br />
8 Up to 2013, committed convenience and comparison goods development roughly<br />
matches projected expenditure growth, although there is a clear short term need to<br />
bring forward more foodstore development in the Outer Metropolitan Area.<br />
However, given the long lead time for retail development, particularly town centre or<br />
edge-of-centre development, it is important to plan now for development which will<br />
be built and occupied in 2013 or shortly afterwards. The key strategy<br />
recommendations for the main areas is summarized below.<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
9 The focus for new comparison goods provision is to be the <strong>City</strong> centre and the<br />
additions to it which have been identified by the <strong>City</strong> <strong>Council</strong> in the four nucleus<br />
zones set out in the <strong>City</strong> Centre Retail Strategy and Action Plan. In order to ensure<br />
that time is allowed for progression of <strong>City</strong> centre development, the extent of<br />
development in the suburbs needs to be monitored carefully against guideline<br />
targets so that the <strong>City</strong> centre potential is not jeopardized.<br />
Rest of Metropolitan Area<br />
10 Retail provision in the suburbs is currently somewhat skewed towards the district<br />
centres in south <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong>. To achieve a better distribution in relation to population,<br />
future retail development should be allocated 40 per cent to north <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> and 60<br />
per cent to south <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong>. It is considered that Mahon Point should remain much<br />
at its present size and that additional development should be located in the<br />
remaining District Centres together with additional districts centre provision in the<br />
north east and north west of <strong>Cork</strong> in the form of upgrades to existing<br />
Neighbourhood Centres. A key factor in the phasing of suburban development will<br />
be the need to assess both the individual and overall transport effects of additional<br />
development and plan for any improvements that will be required.<br />
11 In the Outer Metropolitan Area, Midleton, Blarney, Ballincollig and Carrigaline are to<br />
be the main focus for expansion.<br />
Ring Towns and Other County Towns<br />
12 In the Ring towns there are opportunities for additional development in all towns<br />
except Kinsale where current commitments are likely to meet projected needs.<br />
Mallow has more sub-regional significance under the NSS and can be expected to<br />
continue to consolidate as a retail centre.<br />
13 There are a number of relatively self sufficient towns in rural North and West <strong>Cork</strong><br />
which serve an important local retail role. Bantry, Charleville, Clonalkilty, Kanturk,<br />
Mitchelstown and Skibbereen have been designed with the role of expansion towns.<br />
Millstreet, Newmarket, Dunmanway, Castletownbere and Schull are small local<br />
centres.<br />
Retail Warehousing<br />
14 The scale of retail warehouse development has increased substantially over the last<br />
5-6 years. There is potential for continued development in edge-of-centre locations<br />
or where it can be demonstrated that effective links with an adjacent centre can be<br />
established so as to promote commercial synergy. An increased emphasis in public<br />
transport accessibility is also required.<br />
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March 2008<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
1 INTRODUCTION<br />
Context<br />
1.1 This study is the third in a series commissioned by <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> <strong>Council</strong> and <strong>Cork</strong> County<br />
<strong>Council</strong> over the past decade. The previous studies are:<br />
• Retail Study of County <strong>Cork</strong> for <strong>Cork</strong> Corporation and <strong>Cork</strong> County <strong>Council</strong> 1997<br />
• <strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study for <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> & County <strong>Council</strong>s 2002.<br />
1.2 The 2002 study fed into the <strong>Cork</strong> County Development Plan (2003) and the <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong><br />
Development Plan (2004). This update projects retail floorspace requirements at 2013<br />
and 2020, and informs the reviews of these documents.<br />
1.3 Since 2002, spending power and population forecasts have increased. Other changes<br />
are:<br />
• Significant housing expansion is proposed in the Metropolitan Area.<br />
• Mallow is proposed as a “hub town” in the National Spatial Strategy.<br />
• New residential and employment development is proposed at the Docklands.<br />
• There is increasing pressure to provide new floorspace in the suburban centres.<br />
• Retail warehousing has become more important in the <strong>City</strong> & County.<br />
• Discount stores are increasingly looking to locate in the towns.<br />
1.4 This study recommends how, taking the above into account, retail growth can best be<br />
balanced between different locations to ensure a sustainable pattern of development.<br />
Study Approach<br />
1.5 As in the previous studies, there have been three main stages to the work.<br />
1.6 First, we have undertaken a number of surveys:<br />
• Floorspace surveys of all centres previously surveyed in 2002, plus some surveys<br />
of additional centres.<br />
• A telephone survey of households to establish shopping patterns.<br />
• A street-side shoppers’ survey in <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre and at Mahon Point. A key aim<br />
of this was to establish whether these centres attract out-of-County trade (and if so,<br />
how much).<br />
1.7 In addition to these surveys we consulted with each of the nine Town <strong>Council</strong>s as well<br />
as with the <strong>City</strong> and County planning officers. The purpose of these consultations was<br />
to understand how retailing in the <strong>City</strong>, suburbs and towns has changed since 2002,<br />
and to gather information on new developments, planning applications and site<br />
allocations.<br />
1.8 To gain a market perspective we also consulted several commercial property agents.<br />
The agents provided details of retail rents, vacancies and occupier demand.<br />
1.9 In parallel with these consultations we advertised for written submissions from<br />
interested parties.<br />
1.10 Second, we undertook projections of expenditure growth and centre turnovers. This<br />
resulted in a requirement for additional retail floorspace.<br />
1.11 Third, we finalised the proposed retail strategy and prepared policy recommendations<br />
for guiding the reviews of the Development Plans.<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
Structure of Report<br />
1.12 This report sets out the key findings of our work.<br />
1.13 In Section 2 we present relevant planning policy. Then in Section 3 we outline the<br />
retail hierarchy and summarise the performance of the main retail centres. For each<br />
centre we discuss changes since 2002 and identify opportunities.<br />
1.14 In Section 4 we summarise the results of the household and shoppers’ surveys. In<br />
Section 5 we set out population and expenditure forecasts.<br />
1.15 We then progress to the strategy and policy recommendations, which are set out in<br />
Section 6.<br />
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2 POLICY REVIEW<br />
National Spatial Strategy<br />
Overview<br />
2.1 The National Spatial Strategy for Ireland (2000-2020) aims to achieve balanced social,<br />
economic and physical development and population growth between regions,<br />
supported by effective planning.<br />
2.2 The NSS proposes that development and growth be concentrated in a network of<br />
“gateway” cities and “hub” towns.<br />
The South West Region<br />
2.3 The NSS designations for the South West Region are shown in Figure 2.1, below and<br />
envisage <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> and County as part of an expanded ‘Atlantic Gateway’ which will<br />
lead to further population and economic growth.<br />
Figure 2.1 South West Region<br />
Source: NSS, Map 8<br />
2.4 <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> is the designated gateway for the South West region. The NSS states that it<br />
should build on its substantial and established economic base to lever investment into<br />
the region. It has the potential to be developed to the scale required to complement<br />
Dublin. The <strong>City</strong> should be enhanced as a metropolitan, business friendly, public<br />
transport based and physically attractive city.<br />
2.5 Mallow is designated as a hub town. Improvements to the road network,<br />
communications infrastructure and public transport links will be key to supporting it<br />
growth, as well as improvements to the townscape and better local services.<br />
2.6 Towns in Metropolitan <strong>Cork</strong>, such as Midleton, Cobh and Carrigaline, need to be<br />
promoted and developed as self-sustaining towns. They will benefit from proximity to<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> whilst building up their employment and service functions.<br />
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National Development Plan<br />
2.7 The National Development Plan (2007-2013) was launched in January 2007. It sets<br />
out an investment programme for economic infrastructure, social inclusion measures<br />
(children, people with disabilities, etc.), social infrastructure (housing, health, justice,<br />
etc.), human capital (schools, training, higher education, etc.), and enterprise, science<br />
and innovation.<br />
2.8 Investment is focused on the gateways identified in the NSS and on linking these<br />
gateways with smaller urban centres and rural areas.<br />
2.9 Key investments planned for <strong>Cork</strong> are road improvements, public transport<br />
improvements, urban renewal schemes and improvements to tourism, cultural and<br />
recreational facilities.<br />
Retail Planning Guidelines 2000-2005<br />
2.10 The Department of the Environment and Local Government issued the Retail Planning<br />
Guidelines in December 2000, as a result of increasing pressure for retail development<br />
over the previous decade.<br />
2.11 The Retail Planning Guidelines were re issued in February 2005 with an amendment,<br />
which lifted retail warehouse floorspace restrictions for individual large-scale retail<br />
warehouse developments in Dublin and in the gateways identified in the NSS.<br />
2.12 The retail planning guidelines identify a national retail hierarchy, consisting of four tiers.<br />
The first is Dublin and the second comprises <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong>, Limerick, Galway and<br />
Waterford. These cities provide a range of high order comparison shopping which is<br />
largely unmatched elsewhere. The first two tiers of the hierarchy account for over half<br />
of total comparison goods turnover.<br />
2.13 Mallow and Midleton are included in a group of large towns regarded as third tier<br />
shopping locations. Most of these have national supermarket chain representation and<br />
many have significant comparison goods shopping.<br />
2.14 The fourth tier of the hierarchy comprises towns in the 1,500 to 5,000 population<br />
category – some 75 in all. These provide basic convenience shopping, either in small<br />
supermarkets or convenience shops. Some also provide lower order comparison<br />
shopping such as hardware and clothes.<br />
2.15 Beyond these tiers, shopping at the most local level is provided by corner shops in<br />
suburban areas, village stores and retail units on petrol filling station forecourts. The<br />
rural shop and post office is recognized as having particular importance in supporting<br />
social and economic life in remoter areas.<br />
2.16 The key policy objectives of the guidelines include:<br />
• To facilitate a competitive and healthy environment for retail industry i.e. it is not<br />
the role of the planning system to stifle competition, preserve commercial interests<br />
or prevent innovation in retailing;<br />
• To promote development which is easily accessible – particularly by public<br />
transport – and in locations which encourage linked shopping, business trips;<br />
• To support the continuing role (and vitality and viability) of established centres; and<br />
• To presume against large-scale retail centres adjacent or in close proximity to<br />
existing, new or planned national roads and motorways.<br />
2.17 The guidelines emphasise the need for retail planning strategies and decisions made<br />
on retail planning applications to be firmly embedded in a plan-led system.<br />
2.18 They advocate the application of the sequential test to the location of retail<br />
development, with preference given to town centre sites, followed by edge-of-centre<br />
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sites – within an easy and convenient walking distance from the primary shopping core<br />
(300-400m).<br />
2.19 Finally, they state that for all applications for large scale retail development, retail<br />
impact should be assessed.<br />
2.20 There are also policy guidelines for particular types of retail development:<br />
• Outside Greater Dublin, there is no justification for new large scale regional<br />
shopping centres;<br />
• Development plans will identify any need for new District centres, comprising up to<br />
10,000m 2 in the main towns and 20,000m 2 in Dublin;<br />
• Large foodstores will be subject to a 3,500m 2 net retail floorspace cap in Greater<br />
Dublin, and 3,000m 2 net retail floorspace elsewhere;<br />
• Discount foodstores of up to 1,500m 2 gross floorspace have a potential role in<br />
extending the choice and range of retailing;<br />
• Retail parks in the range of 8,000 to 15,000m 2 (gross) of development will generally<br />
be acceptable provided the range of goods is conditioned to the sale of bulky<br />
household goods only, i.e. carpets, furniture, white electrical goods and DIY items;<br />
• Retail warehousing units will be subject to a 6,000m 2 gross floorspace cap<br />
(including ancillary garden centre) 1 . <strong>Council</strong>s may wish to impose a minimum size<br />
condition (700m 2 ) on units in out-of-centre locations to prevent sub-division or<br />
smaller stores; and<br />
• In petrol filling stations, up to 100m 2 net retail sales area will be allowed.<br />
2.21 The aim of floorspace caps is to reduce the likelihood of local monopolies.<br />
Regional Planning Guidelines for the South West Region<br />
2.22 The Regional Planning Guidelines (RPGs) for the South West (adopted in May 2004)<br />
set a target population of 700,000 for the region by 2020 (the population at the 2002<br />
census was 580,000).<br />
2.23 In line with NSS policy, the majority of population growth is set to take place in <strong>Cork</strong><br />
<strong>City</strong> and the Metropolitan Towns, a single housing and employment market. Additional<br />
growth is envisaged at the Mallow hub, with smaller scale growth in the towns, villages<br />
and rural areas. Metropolitan <strong>Cork</strong> (<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> <strong>Council</strong> area together with the satellite<br />
towns of Ballincollig, Blarney, Carrigaline, Carrigtwohill, Cobh, Glanmire/Riverstown,<br />
Midleton, Passage West and Tower and the strategic industrial areas and villages) is<br />
set to grow by a minimum of 65,000.<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> Area Strategic Plan (CASP) 2001-2020<br />
2.24 CASP provides a vision and strategy for the development of the <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> sub-region<br />
up to 2020. It sets out a broad-brush rail and public transport based strategy to guide<br />
the general direction and scale of growth. The CASP strategy is currently being<br />
updated.<br />
2.25 The strategy is summarised by Figure 2.2, below. The circles identify the major growth<br />
areas, with the dark shaded sections representing existing population and the light<br />
shaded areas representing additional population.<br />
1 The threshold was amended to accommodate larger stores in IAP areas in NSS gateways in 2005<br />
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Figure 2.2 <strong>Cork</strong> Area Strategic Plan Diagram<br />
Source: CASP Part A, Figure 2.1<br />
2.26 The CASP study has enabled both <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> and County to sign up to a long term<br />
planning strategy for the area based on <strong>Cork</strong> Gateway as a major housing and<br />
employment market and the central focus of the Mallow to Midleton railway line. It has<br />
identified an urban hierarchy indicating the primacy of the city and the importance of<br />
the towns in the metropolitan area and the Ring towns.<br />
2.27 The strategy envisages substantial development and regeneration in the <strong>City</strong> centre as<br />
well as key settlements along the Mallow – <strong>Cork</strong> – Midleton railway alignment (including<br />
a new settlement; Monard). Significant development is also proposed in some of the<br />
ring towns. Underpinning the strategy is a vision of <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> as the capital of a<br />
prosperous and thriving region and the key driver of its social, economic and cultural<br />
vitality.<br />
The North and West <strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Plan 2002 to 2020<br />
2.28 The aim of this plan is to make north and west <strong>Cork</strong> more attractive places to live for<br />
young adults. Measures to achieve this include:<br />
• Improving the economy<br />
• Improving infrastructure and communications<br />
• Promoting access to social, recreational and cultural facilities.<br />
2.29 The Plan proposes that industrial development should be focused in a number of<br />
areas, including Clonakilty which should be designated as a centre for technology<br />
industries.<br />
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2.30 It also proposes designating a development corridor along the N20 from <strong>Cork</strong> to<br />
Limerick in the section between Mallow and Charleville and strengthening the <strong>Cork</strong> /<br />
Macroom / Killarney route as a potential development corridor.<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study (CSRS) 2002 2<br />
2.31 The <strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study 2002 superseded the <strong>Cork</strong> County Retail Strategy<br />
(1997). A joint retail strategy was derived from the CSRS and incorporated into the<br />
<strong>City</strong> and County Development Plans.<br />
2.32 The Study recommendations are summarised in Table 2.1 below.<br />
Table 2.1 CSRS Recommendations<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong><br />
Centre<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong><br />
suburbs<br />
Metropolitan<br />
towns<br />
Ring towns<br />
Rural North<br />
<strong>Cork</strong><br />
Rural West<br />
<strong>Cork</strong><br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre should remain at the top of the retail hierarchy and be the<br />
focus for higher order retail development<br />
The <strong>Council</strong> should bring forward prime central area developments such as<br />
the St. Patrick’s St and Guys sites.<br />
The <strong>Council</strong> should improve the quality of in the environment of St. Patricks<br />
St.<br />
Policies should provide for incremental expansion through the defined Retail<br />
Area into potential new retail areas to the north and east.<br />
The Docklands Development Strategy, which identifies a retail opportunity,<br />
should be taken forward.<br />
By 2011, 9,000m 2 of comparison floorspace and 6,500m 2 of convenience<br />
floorspace should be built in Blackpool, Douglas and Wilton.<br />
By 2006, the Mahon Point site should be developed to accommodate<br />
11,000m 2 of comparison floorspace and 2,800m 2 of convenience floorspace.<br />
Policies should provide for the appropriate distribution of both comparison<br />
(19,000m 2 ) and convenience (10,000m 2 ) floorspace into the metropolitan<br />
towns.<br />
Ballincollig and Midleton can accommodate additional provision. Blarney and<br />
Cobh can accommodate additional floorspace serving the tourism industry<br />
and Carrigaline can also be expanded.<br />
Due to their relatively greater independence from the <strong>City</strong> Centre, policies<br />
should be drafted to ensure that the ring towns continue to improve their<br />
retail function within their respective catchments.<br />
Policies should provide for the appropriate distribution of comparison<br />
(12,000m 2 ) and convenience (3,000m 2 ) floorspace in the towns.<br />
Charleville and Mitchelstown are reasonably self sufficient in providing retail<br />
facilities for their catchments. Policies should provide for consolidation.<br />
In both towns there is potential to provide additional retail floorspace on town<br />
centre sites.<br />
Clonakilty has the main role in this area and has potential as a tourist town.<br />
There is potential for additional comparison and service floorspace in the<br />
town centre.<br />
2 <strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study 2002 is subject to this review.<br />
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2.33 Since 2002, the <strong>Council</strong>s have taken these recommendations forward. In the <strong>City</strong>, the<br />
St. Patrick’s St and Guys sites are under construction. Several other central schemes<br />
are either under construction or have planning permission. The <strong>City</strong> <strong>Council</strong> have<br />
zoned land for retail at the Docklands, which will be delivered in line with residential<br />
and employment development there.<br />
2.34 Over 12,000sqm net of comparison floorspace has been developed at Mahon Point,<br />
along with over 12,000sqm net of retail warehousing. There is planning permission for<br />
further development. In Douglas there is planning permission for an additional<br />
3,500sqm net of comparison floorspace. A retail park has been developed at<br />
Blackpool and there is planning permission for further floorspace. The Wilton shopping<br />
centre has been extended and a new Tesco store has been built.<br />
2.35 New retail development has taken place in Ballincollig, Carrigaline, Cobh and Midleton<br />
metropolitan towns, and the County <strong>Council</strong> have planned a northern expansion to<br />
Blarney that will include new retail space.<br />
2.36 In the ring towns, over 20,000sqm net of new comparison, over 8,000sqm net of new<br />
convenience and over 6,000sqm net of new retail warehousing floorspace has been<br />
developed. Much of this has been in Mallow. Further developments have planning<br />
permission.<br />
2.37 In rural North <strong>Cork</strong>, new retail developments have taken place in both Charleville and<br />
Mitchelstown. In West <strong>Cork</strong>, Clonalkilty has seen an extension to Supervalue and an<br />
out-of-centre Dunnes store has been developed. An out-of-centre discount store has<br />
been developed at Skibberean.<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> County Development Plan 2003<br />
Settlement network<br />
2.38 The Plan aims to develop a strategic network of settlements, stating that “A strong<br />
network important to sustain healthy population levels and enhance quality of life…”<br />
(p33). The centres are grouped by type and the Plan sets out the role and function of<br />
each. The Plan aims to shift development locations to those that can be made easily<br />
accessible by public transport (especially rail).<br />
Retail policies<br />
2.39 The Plan acknowledges <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre as the primary retail centre in the County and<br />
the focus for comparison retail development. It recognises the need for <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong><br />
centre to expand and to improve the quality of the retail experience offered to meet its<br />
planned role as a retail centre of international importance.<br />
2.40 An objective of the Plan is to carefully control the expansion of the suburban district<br />
centres (Blackpool, Douglas, Wilton and Mahon Point) so that the planned<br />
development of <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre and the metropolitan towns can be achieved.<br />
2.41 The Plan proposes additional comparison floorspace for the suburban district centres,<br />
allowing for limited expansion. It also allows for the development of some lower grade<br />
comparison floorspace in the neighbourhood centres. The Plan states that once the<br />
development of the Mahon Point centre is complete, there will be little potential for<br />
large-scale foodstore provision in the suburbs of <strong>Cork</strong>.<br />
2.42 The metropolitan towns of Ballincollig, Carrigaline and Midleton are designated as<br />
district centres in the retail hierarchy.<br />
2.43 The Plan states that Ballincollig to the west and Midleton to the east of <strong>Cork</strong> are the<br />
centres into which most additional floorspace should be directed. Blarney and Cobh<br />
can accommodate additional floorspace serving the tourism market. Carrigaline is also<br />
a strong retail centre, which has capacity to accommodate some expansion.<br />
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2.44 An objective of the Plan is to allow retail growth in the Ring and County towns, in line<br />
with planned population growth.<br />
2.45 The ring towns (Bandon, Fermoy, Kinsale, Macroom, Mallow, Youghal) have greater<br />
independence from the <strong>City</strong> centre and serve well-defined catchments. The<br />
Development Plan seeks to maintain their attractiveness as self-sufficient towns by<br />
developing the range and quality of retail development, particularly in their town<br />
centres. Mallow is seen as a particularly important location due to its status as a<br />
designated hub.<br />
2.46 The Plan identifies a number of neighbourhood centres. These include various suburbs<br />
of <strong>Cork</strong>, smaller town centres and villages. The Plan acknowledges the importance of<br />
neighbourhood centres in meeting local needs primarily for convenience shopping but<br />
also for a limited range of comparison goods.<br />
2.47 Local shops serve immediate local needs and provide primarily convenience goods<br />
within residential, commercial or mixed-use areas. It is an objective of the<br />
Development Plan to recognise the importance of local or ‘corner’ shops in meeting<br />
local shopping needs.<br />
2.48 The Plan states that the preferred location for new retail development, where<br />
practicable and viable, is in a town centre (or a district or village centre). Otherwise, the<br />
sequential test should be applied.<br />
2.49 The Plan recognises that in some towns, the development of strong convenience retail<br />
anchors may be a precondition for attracting enough shoppers to support an enhanced<br />
comparison role. This may result in a need to permit new convenience space that<br />
cumulatively exceeds the convenience allocation for these towns in order that they can<br />
also develop as comparison centres.<br />
2.50 It is an objective that the range of goods sold in retail warehouses be restricted to the<br />
sale of bulky household goods including: carpets, furniture, automotive products, white<br />
electrical goods, DIY items, garden materials, office equipment, industrial plant and<br />
equipment. Acceptable uses also include the sale of computers, toys and sports<br />
goods. The Plan indicates that the size of store selling computers, toys and sports<br />
goods should be restricted to a maximum of 2,000m 2 .<br />
2.51 Permitted uses exclude the sale of goods which are not bulky such as food, clothing<br />
and footwear items. Applicants for planning permission must demonstrate that the<br />
proposal will not impact on existing centres.<br />
2.52 The Plan notes that <strong>Cork</strong> is underprovided for in terms of modern retail warehouse<br />
formats, with the majority of retail warehousing located in the suburbs and<br />
predominantly provided in converted industrial or warehouse units.<br />
Variations<br />
2.53 The Review of Retail Warehousing in <strong>Cork</strong> (August 2004) was carried out to review the<br />
quantitative and locational parameters for retail warehousing in County <strong>Cork</strong>. The<br />
review was incorporated into the County Development Plan by Variation on 25 th July<br />
2005. The review indicated a demand requirement due to demographic changes,<br />
urbanisation and increased spending power for an additional 28,530m 2 (gross) of retail<br />
warehousing floorspace in addition to the figures recommended in the CSRS.<br />
2.54 The Retail Property Market Commentary (February 2006) concluded that the projected<br />
additional retail floor space for the period 2001-2011 may have been underestimated.<br />
As a result of these findings it is considered that each planning application for new<br />
retail floorspace should be assessed on its merits, existing policy and the Retail<br />
Planning Guidelines for Planning Authorities.<br />
2.55 This was incorporated into the County Development Plan by Variation on 8th January<br />
2007. The variation removed Objective ECO 3-11 (a):<br />
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It is an objective to ensure that there will be a clear presumption against<br />
comparison shopping development in the suburbs above the guideline targets<br />
indicated in Table 4.4.<br />
2.56 This variation relates to the County only, it was not applied to the <strong>City</strong> Plan.<br />
Electoral Area Local Area Plans<br />
2.57 The provisions of the CSRS were incorporated into Local Area Plans for the 10<br />
Electoral Areas; Bandon, Bantry, Blarney, Carrigaline, Fermoy, Kanturk, Macroom,<br />
Mallow, Middleton and Skibbereen. These were adopted in September 2005. In<br />
addition, Special Local Area Plans were produced for Carrigtwohill, Midleton.<br />
2.58 The Local Area Plans set out the town, district and neighbourhood centres for each<br />
area and make retail allocations for these centres.<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Development Plan 2004<br />
2.59 The Plan defines the <strong>City</strong> Centre Retail Area (CCRA) as the central “island” flanked on<br />
both its north and south sides by the Lee River Corridor, in addition to the area around<br />
MacCurtain Street.<br />
2.60 The Plan identifies existing and proposed neighbourhood centres throughout the <strong>City</strong><br />
centre, northern suburbs and southern suburbs. These include two new<br />
neighbourhood centres to serve the needs of the regenerated Docklands area; at<br />
Victoria Road / Centre Park Road and North Docks / Lower Glanmire Road. These will<br />
accommodate most, if not all, of the convenience floorspace that will need to be<br />
accommodated in the <strong>City</strong> entre.<br />
2.61 The Plan identifies new local centres at Victoria Cross and near the junction of Model<br />
Farm Road / Rossa Avenue.<br />
Draft <strong>City</strong> Centre Retail Strategy and Action Plan 2007<br />
2.62 The <strong>City</strong> Development Plan sets out a joint <strong>City</strong> and County retail strategy as<br />
previously summarised at paragraphs 2.39 – 2.52. This document examines the<br />
comparison retail sector and outlines a strategy for the consolidation, intensification<br />
and growth of the comparison retail sector in the <strong>City</strong> centre to the end of the current<br />
development plan period and beyond.<br />
2.63 The document states that, based on a review of comparison retail growth between<br />
2002 and 2006, there are commitments in <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre which will deliver over<br />
22,000m 2 of comparison retail floorspace with an additional 11,000m 2 in the planning<br />
process. This exceeds the 19,000m 2 target set to be committed by 2006 in the CSRS.<br />
2.64 Some 35 opportunity sites are identified based on their location, size and suitability for<br />
development. Sites are grouped under three headings:<br />
• Primary opportunity sites<br />
• Secondary opportunity sites<br />
• Other opportunity sites<br />
2.65 Approximately 130,500m 2 of retail floorspace is potentially developable on these sites.<br />
This figure points to a significant reservoir of floorspace capacity in the <strong>City</strong> centre.<br />
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3 THE RETAIL HIERARCHY<br />
Introduction<br />
3.1 In this Section, we discuss the retail hierarchy. The retail centres are grouped as<br />
follows:<br />
• <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre.<br />
• <strong>Cork</strong> Suburbs<br />
- District Centres<br />
- Neighbourhood Centres<br />
• Outer Metropolitan Area<br />
• Ring Towns.<br />
• County Towns<br />
3.2 This hierarchy was established in the previous study, but some towns have grown<br />
more than others and some are programmed for expansion. There is also a new<br />
suburban centre - Mahon Point.<br />
3.3 In summer 2007 we surveyed all the centres. Table 3.1, below, shows the total<br />
amount of “pure” comparison floorspace (i.e. excluding retail warehousing) and<br />
convenience floorspace in each centre, as well as population figures. Figure 3.1<br />
shows the locations of the centres.<br />
Table 3.1 Floorspace and Population by Centre<br />
Centre<br />
Comparison<br />
floorspace (sqm<br />
net) 2007<br />
Convenience<br />
floorspace (sqm<br />
net) 2007<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Centre 73,765 11,005<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> Suburbs<br />
Mahon Point 14,100 2,785<br />
Blackpool 3,960 1,930<br />
Togher 950 1,290<br />
Hollyhill 200 910<br />
Bishopstown Court 2,095 975<br />
Bishopstown 1,260 1,080<br />
Wilton 6,350 4,850<br />
Ballyvolane 2,145 2,685<br />
Douglas Court 4,860 1,485<br />
Old Douglas & Village 2,840 3,100<br />
TOTAL 38,760 21,090<br />
Outer Met. Area<br />
Balincollig 5,745 4,465<br />
Carrigaline 5,075 4,350<br />
Midleton 7,450 5,385<br />
Blarney 2,255 1,915<br />
Cobh 1,165 3,270<br />
Glanmire - Riverstown 340 2,295<br />
Carrigtwohill 730 920<br />
Passage West 70 170<br />
Tower 2,315 760<br />
Little Island 130 400<br />
TOTAL 25,275 23,930<br />
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Centre<br />
Comparison<br />
floorspace (sqm<br />
net) 2007<br />
Convenience<br />
floorspace (sqm<br />
net) 2007<br />
Ring towns<br />
Mallow 8,360 5,790<br />
Fermoy 4,855 1,420<br />
Youghal 5,185 3,865<br />
Bandon 6,715 2,315<br />
Macroom 3,940 4,795<br />
Kinsale 1,940 520<br />
TOTAL 30,995 18,705<br />
County towns<br />
Charleville 3,400 1,910<br />
Mitchelstown 4,415 3,845<br />
Millstreet 2,730 900<br />
Kanturk 1,895 1,170<br />
Newmarket 1,245 995<br />
Clonakilty 4,440 3,695<br />
Skibbereen 3,630 2,160<br />
Castletownbere 1,795 1,120<br />
Bantry 2,810 1,105<br />
Dunmanway 1,740 1,165<br />
Schull 750 860<br />
TOTAL 28,850 18,925<br />
Note: The retail areas shown are based on a survey of town and district centres that was completed<br />
in July 2007<br />
Out-of-Centre Development<br />
3.4 In addition to this quantum of in-centre retail provision there are a number of out-ofcentre<br />
retail developments, the majority being self standing foodstores or retail<br />
warehouse developments. In Table 3.2 below we tabulate out-of-centre convenience<br />
and comparison goods developments excluding retail warehouse projects.<br />
Table 3.2 : Out-of-Centre Retail Developments 2007<br />
Name Description Convenience (m 2) ) Comparison (m 2 )<br />
Midleton Tesco Market Green 2730<br />
Gate Cinema Retail Units 70<br />
Market Green World of Wonder<br />
Co-op 4 Home<br />
Co-op Builders providers Market<br />
green<br />
Clonakilty Dunnes 1140 760<br />
Skibbereen Lidl 1630<br />
Charleville Lidl 1040<br />
Cobh Supervalu 1200<br />
Total 7,740 3830<br />
Source: <strong>Cork</strong> County <strong>Council</strong><br />
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Figure 3.1 Retail Hierarchy<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
3.5 <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre is the primary retail centre in the County, containing around one-fifth<br />
of all the comparison and convenience retail floorspace. The <strong>City</strong> centre currently<br />
supports 73,765m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 11,005m 2 of convenience<br />
floorspace.<br />
3.6 The <strong>City</strong> centre is predominantly contained in the central “island” flanked on both its<br />
north and south sides by the Lee River Corridor, in addition to the area around<br />
MacCurtain Street.<br />
3.7 Since 2002, little new development has been added to the <strong>City</strong> centre, but over<br />
37,000sqm net of comparison floorspace is committed, including large developments<br />
under construction at the Guy’s site, Cornmarket Street and at St. Patrick’s<br />
Street/Emmet Place. Also under construction is a new Dunnes store and a retail<br />
warehousing scheme at the An Post site, Eglinton Street. In addition there is planning<br />
permission for a range of new convenience and comparison floorspace at Grand<br />
Parade, Lavitt’s Quay, Merchants Quay and St. Patrick’s Quay, and a proposal for<br />
retail development at the Capitol Cinema site. This new floorspace will strengthen the<br />
<strong>City</strong>’s retail offer and help to fulfil its regional role. In the longer term the <strong>City</strong> <strong>Council</strong><br />
proposes neighbourhood centres and a District centre to serve the Docklands at a<br />
pace to parallel the growth of population and employment. The <strong>Council</strong> has also<br />
identified other draft proposal sites.<br />
3.8 Commercial property agents report that there is high demand for new retail premises in<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong>. They state that there is a lack of modern units with large floorplates for<br />
occupiers such as Zara, H&M, Habitat, but it is likely that the new schemes will fill this<br />
need and therefore attract these types of occupiers.<br />
3.9 The high demand is evidenced by rents of €5,380 / sqm for some of the new floorspace<br />
- this represents a 50% increase on the highest rent achievable in the <strong>City</strong> in 2002.<br />
Rents in the Merchant’s Quay development are €2,155 / sqm and in Oliver Plunkett<br />
Street, where there is increased demand from independent boutique operators, are<br />
€1,700 / sqm.<br />
3.10 As set out in the 2002 report, the poor quality of the shopping environment and the<br />
constraints to pedestrian movement in the <strong>City</strong> centre were major weaknesses.<br />
Improvements to the public realm including widening of pavements on St. Patrick’s<br />
Street and the pedestrianisation of Oliver Plunkett Street and adjacent streets for part<br />
of the day have made the <strong>City</strong> a much more attractive place to shop.<br />
3.11 In addition, improvements to the bus station and the introduction of the park and ride<br />
scheme have made the <strong>City</strong> more accessible.<br />
3.12 The <strong>City</strong> centre has an attractive townscape and it is important that the new schemes<br />
are well designed and complement the existing buildings.<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Suburbs<br />
District Centres<br />
3.13 Since 2002, a large new suburban shopping centre has been built to the south-east of<br />
the <strong>City</strong>; Mahon Point. Some 14,100m 2 of comparison floorspace has been built in the<br />
shopping centre, including Debenhams. A Tesco store has also been built, comprising<br />
2,785m 2 of net convenience floorspace. In addition, over 12,000m 2 net of retail<br />
warehousing has been built, with planning permission for a further 7,300 sqm.<br />
3.14 Mahon Point contains modern large units, is easy to access by car and has free<br />
parking. It has become a popular destination and rents are the highest amongst the<br />
suburban centres – up to €2,000 / sqm – not far below rents achieved at Merchant’s<br />
Quay in the <strong>City</strong>.<br />
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3.15 To the west of Mahon is the large suburban centre of Douglas, which includes Douglas<br />
Court and Douglas Village shopping centres as well as the traditional shopping area -<br />
Douglas old village. Collectively they comprise 7,700m 2 of comparison goods<br />
floorspace and 4,585m 2 of convenience floorspace. There is also 6,905m 2 net of retail<br />
warehousing at the Woollen Mills.<br />
3.16 Since 2002, Douglas has not expanded at all although there are planning permissions<br />
for around 3,600m 2 net of comparison floorspace and 750m 2 net of convenience.<br />
Rents in the Douglas Village Shopping Centre are €1,300 / sqm and in Douglas Court<br />
are €750 / sqm; both of these have increased over 40% since 2002.<br />
3.17 Douglas is a popular and accessible shopping destination and there is high demand<br />
from retail occupiers. However, there is a high volume of traffic, the two areas of the<br />
centre are disconnected and the shopping environment is poor. There is a long term<br />
aspiration to reconfigure the roads and combine the two parts of the centre by building<br />
between them - mixed use redevelopment with high quality urban design may be the<br />
most suitable option.<br />
3.18 Also to the south east, on Skehard Road in Blackrock, there is a large self-standing<br />
SuperValu store.<br />
3.19 In the south-western suburbs, the largest centre is Wilton. This is a covered shopping<br />
centre comprising 2,715m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 3,865m 2 of<br />
convenience floorspace floorspace. Since 2002, the centre has been extended and a<br />
Tesco store has opened – this now anchors the centre. There are no outstanding<br />
planning permissions. Previously, the centre was anchored by a Roches store but this<br />
has now closed and this element is in need of redevelopment – more intensive, mixed<br />
use development may be appropriate. Rents in Wilton are €1,200 / sqm and have<br />
increased by over 50% since 2002.<br />
3.20 To the north of the <strong>City</strong>, the largest suburb is now Blackpool. This provides 3,960m 2 of<br />
comparison goods floorspace and 1,930m 2 of convenience floorspace. The centre is<br />
anchored by a large Dunnes store retailing convenience and comparison goods. Since<br />
2002 over 7,000sqm net of retail warehousing has been developed and there are<br />
planning permissions for further comparison and convenience floorspace.<br />
3.21 Rents are currently only €645 / sqm, lower than at Mahon Point, Douglas and Wilton.<br />
However, there is market demand for new retail development and there is considerable<br />
scope if the <strong>Council</strong> wish to take this approach. However, mixed use development<br />
would be the most desirable, and any new schemes would need to be combined with<br />
traffic improvements to ease congestion. Blackpool has good public transport links and<br />
a rail station is planned.<br />
Neighbourhood Centres<br />
3.22 Ballyvolane and Hollyhill in the north function as neighbourhood centres providing<br />
principally for day-to-day convenience goods needs. Both centres are anchored by<br />
large foodstores. Ballyvolane contains 2,145m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and<br />
2,685m 2 of convenience floorspace. Hollyhill is smaller with only 200m 2 of comparison<br />
goods floorspace and 910m 2 of convenience floorspace.<br />
3.23 Bishopstown Court, Bishopstown and Togher in the south-west also function as<br />
neighbourhood centres. Bishopstown Court is located by the Bandon Road<br />
roundabout and provides 2,095m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 975m 2 of<br />
convenience floorspace with a small, somewhat dated Dunnes store.<br />
3.24 Nearby Bishopstown is a more modern, free-standing Dunnes superstore providing<br />
1,260m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 1,080m 2 of convenience floorspace.<br />
There is permission to extend this centre by 2,000sqm net, which will all be<br />
comparison floorspace.<br />
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3.25 Togher comprises 950m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 1,290m 2 of<br />
convenience floorspace, anchored by a Lidl store.<br />
3.26 Kinsale Road is a medium sized concentration (4,555m 2 net) of retail warehouses in<br />
converted industrial/warehouse buildings within an industrial area. Whilst popular this<br />
does not provide a high standard of retail environment. However, the new Woodies<br />
complex which borders the South Link Road (housing over 6,000m 2 net floorspace in<br />
Woodies and two smaller units) does provide a reasonable environment.<br />
Outer Metropolitan Area<br />
3.27 Metropolitan towns are identified in CASP and are distributed to the east and west of<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong>. To the west, Ballincollig is one of the larger metropolitan towns, with<br />
5,745m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 4,465m 2 of convenience floorspace<br />
Since 2002, new retail development has taken place at the Former Murphy’s Barracks<br />
site which has doubled the size of the centre. There is planning permission for a<br />
further retail extension (anchor store) in the town centre and there are other central<br />
opportunities.<br />
3.28 Rents are currently €540 / sqm, the same as in Midleton and Carrigaline. This is a<br />
36% rise since 2002. Ballincollig is a successful centre that is attractive to developers,<br />
retailers and shoppers alike.<br />
3.29 Blarney is also located to the west and provides neighbourhood facilities. It contains<br />
2,255m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 1,915m 2 of convenience floorspace.<br />
Blarney has a significant tourism function. Rents are lower than in the other<br />
metropolitan towns, at €325 / sqm.<br />
3.30 Since 2002, Supervalu has been extended in Blarney. There are also retail allocations<br />
for an extension to Blarney and for a new settlement at Monard, this latter being part of<br />
the rail strategy.<br />
3.31 Close to Blarney is Tower. This comprises 2,315m 2 of comparison goods floorspace<br />
and 760m 2 of convenience floorspace. Since 2002, the Tower Shopping Centre has<br />
been developed, which consists of 1,930 sqm net of retail floorspace, both<br />
convenience and comparison. Because of the planned extension to Blarney it is now<br />
unlikely that the town will grow.<br />
3.32 To the east, Midleton is now the largest metropolitan town in terms of retail provision,<br />
containing 7,450m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 5,385m 2 of convenience<br />
floorspace.<br />
3.33 Since 2002 there has been considerable new development in Midleton. The Market<br />
Green shopping centre has been completed, comprising over 8,000sqm of retail<br />
warehousing plus comparison units and a Tesco store. There are further planning<br />
permissions for a Lidl store and another convenience store and new proposals are<br />
being discussed.<br />
3.34 Prime retail rents in Midleton are €430-540 / sqm. There is demand from a range of<br />
businesses in the town and for a range of sizes and types of unit. Vacancy is low – only<br />
one unit at present, with the Market Green development nearly all let.<br />
3.35 Accessibility into Midleton is generally a strength. Car borne shoppers are well<br />
provided for in terms of parking supply both off-street and on-street. Public transport<br />
services from the outlying catchment area are good and will be improved by the<br />
proposed suburban rail line.<br />
3.36 Also to the east, Little Island contains only 130m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and<br />
400m 2 of convenience floorspace. It is a strategic industrial area where 13,000 m 2<br />
net of retail warehousing has been developed at the Eastgate Retail Park. This is not<br />
yet occupied. Ancillary development for workers - including the Spar convenience<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
store and a number of fast food outlets - has also been built. It is a neighbourhood<br />
centre for the local residential community as well as the large workforce employed at<br />
Little Island.<br />
3.37 Carrigtwohill, further east, is a smaller settlement containing only 730m 2 of comparison<br />
goods floorspace and 920m 2 of convenience floorspace. There have been no new<br />
developments completed since 2002, but 8,400sqm of retail warehousing is under<br />
construction at the Fota Retail Park. Large employment and housing developments<br />
are planned in Carrigtwohill, on the Castlelake sites. The projected population growth<br />
of the OMA will lead to a requirement for additional convenience floorspace and some<br />
comparison shopping to meet the weekly shopping needs of the local catchment area.<br />
3.38 Glanmire, to the north east, is a purpose built neighbourhood shopping facility, which is<br />
anchored by a large SuperValu foodstore. The centre comprises only 340m 2 of<br />
comparison goods floorspace but 2,295m 2 of convenience floorspace. Since 2002, the<br />
Supervalu has been extended. There are no committed developments, however there<br />
are some available brownfield sites in town centre and edge locations.<br />
3.39 Rents are €325 / sqm, again an increase of only 17% since 2002.<br />
3.40 To the south Carrigaline is one of the larger metropolitan towns, supporting 5,075m 2 of<br />
comparison goods floorspace and 4,350m 2 of convenience floorspace. Like<br />
Ballincollig to the west, Carrigaline has seen significant retail development in the last<br />
few years. Since 2002 a Dunnes (comparison and convenience) a Lidl and a 4-Home<br />
retail warehouse have been developed. Rents are €540 / sqm, on a par with Midleton.<br />
3.41 The Local Area Plan allocates a 10.4ha town centre expansion to include a<br />
considerable retail element. This is contingent on the construction of a western relief<br />
bypass to ease congestion.<br />
3.42 In the southeast, Cobh provides shopping facilities for a localised catchment. Cobh<br />
supports 1,165m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 3,270m 2 of convenience<br />
floorspace. There is poor retail provision in the town centre relative to the size of the<br />
local population. Since 2002, a new Supervalu has been developed in Cobh, which<br />
has greatly improved the convenience retail offer. There are two out-of-centre Centra<br />
stores. There is also some committed development, most notably an Aldi and Lidl and<br />
a new retail warehouse. There are three derelict sites in the town which could<br />
accommodate some further development.<br />
3.43 Rents are €325 / sqm, an increase of only 17% since 2002. Cobh is popular tourist<br />
destination. It is also a port of call for cruise liners and so benefits from some spend by<br />
visitors and crew, although this is modest. Tourist related outlets make up a significant<br />
part of the overall offer. The combination of the quality of the natural setting and the<br />
public realm in Cobh is the town’s major strength. Traffic flow is congested due to the<br />
compact centre and lack of alternative routes.<br />
3.44 To the south east is Passage West, a very small centre supporting only 70m 2 of<br />
comparison goods floorspace and 170m 2 of convenience floorspace. There has been<br />
no development since 2002, although the dockyards are a potential development area.<br />
The centre is run down and there are traffic and parking problems.<br />
Ring Towns<br />
3.45 Mallow is the largest of the ring towns, supporting 8,360m 2 of comparison goods<br />
floorspace and 5,790m 2 of convenience floorspace. The town has a wide range of<br />
both convenience and comparison outlets.<br />
3.46 In line with its status as a hub town in the National Spatial Strategy, Mallow has seen a<br />
large amount of new development since 2002. Over 6,500sqm net (comparison and<br />
convenience) has been developed at Dunnes, Market Square – this has improved the<br />
strength of the town and enabled it to compete more effectively with Blackpool<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
suburban centre. A further 12,000sqm of comparison and retail warehouse floorspace<br />
is committed. There are additional development sites available, including the sugar<br />
factory site which is likely to be developed for mixed use.<br />
3.47 Rents in Mallow are €377 / sqm and have increased by 40% since 2002. Demand is<br />
high because of Mallow’s hub town status and the planned new housing<br />
developments. There is particular demand for suitable larger units.<br />
3.48 There is some traffic congestion in the town and a bypass is planned.<br />
3.49 Fermoy supports 4,855m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and but only 1,420m 2 of<br />
convenience floorspace.<br />
3.50 Since 2002, there has only been one new development – a Lidl store. There are two<br />
commitments for retail warehousing, totalling over 2000 m 2 net. There is demand for<br />
more retail warehousing, but there is a lack of commercially owned land for new<br />
development. The main opportunity site is the Mart site on St Patrick’s Street, which if<br />
developed for retail would strengthen the town centre.<br />
3.51 Rents in Fermoy are €300-345 / sqm and have gone up by around 20% since 2002.<br />
There has been a recent slowdown in the market and there are several vacancies in<br />
the town. However, the bypass which opened last year has improved the shopping<br />
environment, and the new hotel which is planned to open in 2009 will bring in more<br />
visitors.<br />
3.52 Bandon is one of the larger ring towns, supporting 6,715m 2 of comparison goods<br />
floorspace and 2,315m 2 of convenience goods floorspace. Since 2002 the Riverview<br />
Centre, in an edge location, has been developed and is trading well. There are no<br />
further commitments but there are some central redevelopment opportunities. Bandon<br />
is an improving town and the completion of the Bandon Main Drainage Scheme will<br />
facilitate more development and central area regeneration. Public realm<br />
improvements, such as pavement renewal, are planned. Together with the planned<br />
bypass, this will greatly improve the shopping environment.<br />
3.53 Retail rents on the High Street are €270-375 / sqm. There are a few vacant units and<br />
there is demand from retailers, however the units are often too small to meet modern<br />
requirements.<br />
3.54 Youghal town centre supports 5,185m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 3,865m 2<br />
of convenience goods floorspace.<br />
3.55 Since 2002, Tesco and Lidl stores have been developed, both in edge of centre<br />
locations. This has stopped some of the convenience expenditure leakage to the <strong>City</strong>,<br />
suburbs and Dungarvan. There are no further commitments but there are opportunity<br />
sites – Murrays Kitchens site which would be suitable for comparison development,<br />
Youghal Shipping site which would be suitable for mixed use and Sloblands which<br />
would be suitable for retail warehousing.<br />
3.56 Rents are €270-325 / sqm, which is lower than the other ring towns. The shopping<br />
environment, which has benefited from the bypass, is being improved further through<br />
the heritage regeneration strategy. The strong demand for housing in the town, due to<br />
the increased accessibility of the <strong>City</strong>, will increase the population and therefore benefit<br />
the retailers.<br />
3.57 Macroom town centre supports 3,940m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 4,795m 2<br />
of convenience goods floorspace. Retail provision has been improved since 2002 by<br />
the provision of a new Dunnes store, a Lidl and an out-of-centre 4 Home store. There<br />
continues to be some loss of expenditure from the town.<br />
3.58 There are further development opportunities including an opportunity for retail<br />
warehousing on the Neville site.<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
3.59 Rents are €270-325 / sqm, the same as in Youghal. The town is affected by through<br />
traffic.<br />
3.60 Kinsale town centre serves a limited catchment due to its coastal location and<br />
proximity to <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre. The scale of the retailing in the town reflects this. The<br />
town supports 1,940m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 520m 2 of convenience<br />
goods floorspace. It also performs a very significant tourist function, with a high<br />
proportion of uses such as bars/restaurants in the town centre. Additionally, a large<br />
proportion of the comparison goods offer is directed at the tourist market.<br />
3.61 There are several commitments for both convenience and comparison developments.<br />
These include the redevelopment of the quay, development of the builders yard and<br />
land adjacent, and land at Troopers Close. These will strengthen the town and<br />
clawback some of the expenditure currently leaking to <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> and suburban centres.<br />
3.62 Rents in Kinsale are €430 / sqm and have only increased by 5% since 2002.<br />
County Towns<br />
North <strong>Cork</strong><br />
3.63 Mitchelstown is the largest town in rural North <strong>Cork</strong> and serves a catchment extending<br />
into County Tipperary. The town centre supports 4,415m 2 of comparison goods<br />
floorspace and 3,845m 2 of convenience goods floorspace.<br />
3.64 Since 2002, a new Tesco store has been built. Lidl and Aldi stores have planning<br />
permission and there is a current application for 7,000sqm net of retail warehousing.<br />
The Dairygold central site is a development opportunity for comparison goods.<br />
3.65 Rents are €160-215 / sqm. There are some vacant units on the main street as well as<br />
properties for sale. There has been a recent slowdown in demand, but following the<br />
planned housing development along with the bypass, which will greatly improve the<br />
shopping environment, this is likely to change.<br />
3.66 Charleville is the second largest town in rural North <strong>Cork</strong> with 3,400m 2 of comparison<br />
goods floorspace and 1,910m 2 of convenience goods floorspace.. Charleville serves a<br />
catchment extending into County Limerick.<br />
3.67 Since 2002, the Beaux Walk centre has opened, a comparison and convenience<br />
scheme anchored by a Dunnes store. An appeal has been made for an extension to<br />
the Supervalu also located in the town centre. An out-of-centre Lidl store has been<br />
developed since 2002.<br />
3.68 Retail demand is currently high, with most retailers looking for premises of 50-100sqm<br />
on the main street. There is huge demand for the modern units at Dunnes – rents of<br />
these units are €375-430 / sqm, an increase of 50% on 2002 rents.<br />
3.69 Millstreet is a smaller town than either Charleville or Mitchelstown, supporting 2,730m 2<br />
of comparison goods floorspace and 900m 2 of convenience goods floorspace.<br />
3.70 Since 2002 there has been no new development. There is also no committed<br />
development. However, SuperValu is relocating to an edge of centre site which will<br />
provide an opportunity, and car showrooms are also relocating out of the centre.<br />
Rents are €160-215 / sqm and have increased by about one-quarter since 2002.<br />
3.71 Kanturk has a larger population than Millstreet, but less retail floorspace; 1,895m 2 of<br />
comparison goods and 1,170m 2 of convenience goods. There has not been any<br />
development since 2002. However, there is a current application for a Lidl store and<br />
there are two opportunity sites – the Mart site and the bakery site.<br />
3.72 Rents €160-215 / sqm and have increased by around one quarter since 2002. There is<br />
a lot of retailer interest in the town.<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
3.73 Newmarket and Buttevant are small towns with very limited retail functions that do not<br />
extend beyond providing for day-to-day convenience needs. There has been no<br />
development in these towns since 2002 and there is only one commitment – a<br />
permission for a DIY store on the “Top Car” site in Newmarket. Rents in both towns<br />
are €160-215 and have increased by about one quarter since 2002.<br />
West <strong>Cork</strong><br />
3.74 Clonakilty is the largest town in rural West <strong>Cork</strong>. The town centre supports 4,440m 2 of<br />
comparison goods floorspace and 3,695m 2 of convenience goods floorspace. The<br />
Supervalu has been extended and Dunnes stores have opened a store out-of-centre.<br />
There is planning permission for some 2,100 sqm (net) of small unit development.<br />
3.75 The town has a high quality public realm and town centre improvements – including<br />
paving and underground cabling – are ongoing. There is also funding for a relief road.<br />
3.76 In addition to providing for the needs of the local population the retailing in Clonakilty<br />
also performs a significant tourism function resulting in a relatively high number of<br />
service outlets in the town centre. There is potential to increase tourism in the town.<br />
3.77 Rents are €270-325 / sqm, the highest in West <strong>Cork</strong>, but they have only increased by<br />
17% since 2002.<br />
3.78 Skibbereen is the next strongest retail town in rural West <strong>Cork</strong>. The town supports<br />
3,630m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 2,160m 2 of convenience goods<br />
floorspace. Since 2002 there has been around 1,000sqm net of new comparison<br />
floorspace developed, all in small units. A further 1,100sqm net is committed, again all<br />
in small units. There is also a central opportunity site in the town. Tesco and Dunnes<br />
are looking to locate in the town. An out-of-centre Lidl has been developed since<br />
2002.<br />
3.79 Skibbereen is a rural market town rather than a tourism destination, but there is<br />
planning permission for a new hotel and the existing hotel has plans to expand, and<br />
these developments should bring more tourists into the town.<br />
3.80 There are public realm improvements underway and the bypass is partly completed.<br />
3.81 Rents are €215-270 and have increased by almost a quarter since 2002<br />
3.82 Bantry contains 2,810m 2 of comparison goods floorspace 1,105m 2 of convenience<br />
goods floorspace.. There has been no development since 2002 and there are no<br />
outstanding planning permissions, although there have been pre-planning discussions<br />
about providing up to 10,000sqm of new retail floorspace, along with a café and an<br />
improved public square.<br />
3.83 Currently, Biggs supermarket is the main foodstore in the town. Tesco, Dunnes and<br />
Lidl are looking to locate there. There are town centre redevelopment opportunities<br />
and edge of centre opportunity sites. There are constraints to development because of<br />
the lack of adequate water and sanitation services. There are also parking and access<br />
problems, in particular for deliveries. Rents are €215-270 and have increased by<br />
almost a quarter since 2002<br />
3.84 Dunmanway provides 1,740m 2 of comparison goods floorspace 1,165m 2 of<br />
convenience goods floorspace. It consists of a Centra store and a small mall, and there<br />
have been no new developments since 2002. However, there is planning permission<br />
for a 1,900sqm net Co-op convenience store.<br />
3.85 The town is in need of improvement and the County Development Board are taking<br />
forward an Integrated Strategy for physical, social and economic development.<br />
3.86 Retail rents are €160-215 and have increased by around one quarter since 2002.<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
3.87 Castletownbere contains 1,795m 2 of comparison goods floorspace and 1,120m 2 of<br />
convenience goods floorspace. The town provides for its local catchment area is<br />
anchored by a SuperValu store Since 2002, there have been no new developments<br />
and in fact the Mace convenience store has closed. There are no outstanding planning<br />
permissions, although there have been pre-planning discussions around expanding<br />
and redeveloping the hotel.<br />
3.88 The town is very remote and its tourism function is limited so there is unlikely to be<br />
scope for further retail development.<br />
3.89 Retail rents are €160-215 / sqm and have increased by around one quarter since 2002.<br />
3.90 Schull is a small town with an extremely localised catchment. There is 750m 2 of<br />
comparison goods floorspace in the centre and 860m 2 of convenience goods<br />
floorspace. Schull benefits from the significant number of summer tourists, and the<br />
composition of the retail provision reflects that function. The main convenience<br />
provision is Spar and Centra.<br />
3.91 Since 2002 there have been no new retail developments, although the hotel has been<br />
redeveloped. There are no outstanding retail planning permissions but there is<br />
permission for a 250 berth marina. Development is constrained by lack of water<br />
capacity.<br />
3.92 Retail rents are €160-215 / sqm, again an increase of around one quarter since 2002.<br />
Retail Warehousing<br />
3.93 In September 2004 we reported that there was 7,350m 2 (gross) of purpose-built retail<br />
warehouse development at Kinsale Road, Togher, Blackpool and Ballincollig. This<br />
figure excluded first generation retail warehouses in converted industrial space.<br />
Currently we estimate that there is a total of 82,000m 2 (net) of retail warehousing, most<br />
of which is in the <strong>City</strong> suburbs and the Outer Metropolitan Area. This is shown in Table<br />
3.2 below. This total includes the <strong>City</strong>’s estimate of both purpose-built and converted<br />
space.<br />
Table 3.2 Retail Warehousing<br />
Planning Area Retail warehousing floorspace (sqm net) 2007<br />
<strong>City</strong> & Suburbs 69,225<br />
Outer Metropolitan Area 11,530<br />
Ring towns & county towns 1,000<br />
TOTAL 81,755<br />
3.94 The additional provision has been at Mahon Point, Blackpool, Middleton, Carragaline,<br />
Bandon and Mallow. There are outstanding commitments for an additional 26,415 m 2 ;<br />
the largest scheme being Eastgate on Little Island.<br />
Summary<br />
3.95 Since 2002, there has been little growth in retail floorspace in <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre but a<br />
large amount of floorspace is either under construction or has planning permission.<br />
3.96 In the suburbs, Mahon has been the major new addition. Blackpool has also grown<br />
considerably with much of the new development being retail warehousing.<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
3.97 In the Outer Metropolitan Area, Ballincollig, Midleton and Carrigaline have all seen<br />
substantial increases in retail floorspace. In Little Island, the large Eastgate retail<br />
warehousing development has been built, although it is not yet fully occupied.<br />
3.98 Of the Ring towns, Mallow and Bandon have grown the most. Youghal has seen a<br />
significant growth in convenience floorspace with two new supermarkets.<br />
3.99 In the other County towns there has been less new provision. In North <strong>Cork</strong>, there has<br />
been new development in Charleville and Mitchelstown. In West <strong>Cork</strong> there has been<br />
small scale new development in Skibbereen and there are unimplemented planning<br />
permissions in Clonakilty town centre (see Appendix 2).<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
4 SHOPPING PATTERNS<br />
Introduction<br />
4.1 Between April and early August 2007 two surveys were carried out to investigate<br />
patterns of shopping and attitudes to the various town centres in the Study Area. First,<br />
there were on-site surveys of 1,000 people shopping in the two biggest centres - <strong>Cork</strong><br />
<strong>City</strong> centre and the Mahon Point shopping centre. Next there was a home-based<br />
survey, conducted by telephone, of a sample of 1,150 households living throughout the<br />
County.<br />
4.2 The survey area for the household survey covered the whole of <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> and County<br />
<strong>Cork</strong>. In order to understand the sphere of influence of centres within the hierarchy the<br />
survey area was divided into the following five zones which broadly reflect the spatial<br />
divisions of the CASP study and are shown in Figure 4.1:<br />
• <strong>City</strong> and Douglas – the administrative area of <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> plus Douglas DED<br />
• Rest of metropolitan area – as in CASP, the surrounding mainly urbanised area<br />
• Ring – a wider band of the major Ring towns extending to the east of the County<br />
• North – the complete northern segment of the County<br />
• Far West – the complete western segment of the County.<br />
The Shoppers<br />
4.3 The objective of the shopper survey was to investigate the shopping behaviour of<br />
people using the <strong>City</strong> centre and Mahon Point, with particular reference to spending at<br />
the centres by those living outside County <strong>Cork</strong>. This survey provides the main<br />
evidence on such imports of expenditure from places outside the County.<br />
4.4 Although the survey was confined to shoppers, shopping was not always the main<br />
reason for the current visit, as shown by the following table. At Mahon Point, one in<br />
eight were there for work, to visit the cinema or cafes, or to meet friends over coffee.<br />
In the <strong>City</strong>, such purposes were even more common. Of those whose main purpose<br />
was shopping, the great majority were on comparison shopping expeditions: at Mahon<br />
Point, only a quarter were mainly there to buy food or groceries, and less than a tenth<br />
in the <strong>City</strong> Centre.<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
Table 4.1 Main Purpose of Current Visit<br />
No. of Respondents<br />
Mahon Point<br />
394<br />
%<br />
<strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
594<br />
%<br />
Supermarket shopping 24.7 4.9<br />
Shopping for food/groceries elsewhere 0.3 2.3<br />
Shopping for clothes/shoes 55.1 64.2<br />
Visit the market 0.9 1.2<br />
Other forms of shopping 7.6 7.7<br />
Visiting bars/cafes/restaurants 2.9 0.2<br />
Bank. Building society, finance 0.0 0.5<br />
Leisure/recreation 6.0 9.7<br />
Education 0.0 1.4<br />
Work here 2.6 7.9<br />
Other 0.0 0.0<br />
Total percentage 100.0 100.0<br />
4.5 We now turn to a central feature of the survey; to investigate how much trade comes<br />
from outside the County. The survey shows that 5% of the Mahon Point respondents<br />
lived outside County <strong>Cork</strong>, mainly in the neighbouring counties of Limerick, Kerry,<br />
Waterford and Tipperary. There was a similar representation of these counties in the<br />
<strong>City</strong> centre, but also a larger presence from other parts of the Republic, or from<br />
overseas, so that in total 9% of <strong>City</strong> Centre respondents lived outside the County (see<br />
Table 3 in Appendix 3).<br />
4.6 Some of these “non–<strong>Cork</strong>ers” make regular shopping visits from their homes outside<br />
the county, invariably for comparison purchases (none of them gave food or grocery<br />
shopping as their main purpose). But there was also a more random element: at<br />
Mahon Point, 72% said they did not shop there regularly, or that this was their first visit<br />
(the comparable figure in the <strong>City</strong> centre was 34%).<br />
4.7 It is to be expected that there are people from nearby counties making regular<br />
comparison shopping trips, since high level shopping facilities are sparse in Kerry and<br />
Tipperary and less attractive than <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> in many other nearby areas. And, as we<br />
can see, <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Centre and Mahon Point are also benefiting from occasional visitors<br />
to the county.<br />
4.8 Long distance visitors like these tend to spend more than other shoppers. At Mahon<br />
Point, where respondents were interviewed as they left the centre, we asked how<br />
much they and other members of their shopping party had spent on the current trip. In<br />
the <strong>City</strong> Centre we asked how much respondents expected their parties to spend in<br />
total on the current trip.<br />
4.9 For all shopping parties, average expenditure was €127 at Mahon Point and €82 in the<br />
<strong>City</strong> Centre. Expenditure by non-residents was about one third higher – averaging €167<br />
at Mahon Point and €111 in the <strong>City</strong> centre. Non residents spent very little on<br />
convenience goods so their expenditure on comparison goods was considerably<br />
higher than that of all shoppers.<br />
4.10 If we take account of these differences in expenditure it can be shown that people from<br />
outside the County accounted for 8% of Mahon Point’s comparison trade and 14% of<br />
that in the <strong>City</strong> centre. By contrast, their contribution to convenience turnover was<br />
negligible – less than 1% at Mahon Point and only just over 1% in the <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
4.11 When asked which centre was their main centre for clothes or shoes, 71% of those<br />
interviewed in the <strong>City</strong> centre gave the <strong>City</strong> centre and 54% of those at Mahon Point<br />
gave Mahon Point. At the same time 28% of those at Mahon Point gave the <strong>City</strong> centre<br />
and 8% of those at the <strong>City</strong> centre gave Mahon Point. By contrast, the other centres,<br />
including Douglas Court/ Village trailed a long way behind, with only 5% or fewer<br />
choices apiece. So taking clothing and footwear as a proxy for general comparison<br />
shopping the <strong>City</strong> centre and Mahon Point clearly have a firm grip on this sector of the<br />
market.<br />
4.12 These data give an initial picture of comparison shopping patterns. A more systematic<br />
view is provided by the household survey, described later in this section. We next<br />
asked shoppers at Mahon Point and the <strong>City</strong> Centre why they used these centres.<br />
4.13 The first group of reasons centred on accessibility – the centres were close to home,<br />
close to work or simply easy to get to. More positive reasons were connected with the<br />
range and quality of shops and leisure facilities, with the much bigger <strong>City</strong> centre<br />
scoring particularly highly on these factors. Mahon Point scored well on parking; the<br />
<strong>City</strong> centre on cleanliness and safety. Both centres were regarded as providing a<br />
pleasant shopping environment.<br />
4.14 Conversely, we then asked what people disliked about the centres. A key point to<br />
emphasise is the percentage giving no reply, or specifically stating that there was<br />
nothing they particularly disliked. These figure in most surveys of this kind but Mahon<br />
Point and the <strong>City</strong> centre do better on these measures than most other centres we<br />
have surveyed elsewhere, the level being 70% at Mahon Point and 31% in the <strong>City</strong><br />
centre.<br />
4.15 When criticisms were made they mainly related to car parking in the <strong>City</strong> centre. Most<br />
of these complaints were about the cost of parking but there were some worries about<br />
the quantity of parking. By contrast, Mahon Point is amply provided with free parking<br />
but there were a few complaints that probably relate to weekend conditions, when<br />
parking can overflow onto the distributor roads.<br />
4.16 Smaller percentages criticised the physical and social environment of the <strong>City</strong> centre,<br />
including poor cleanliness, traffic congestion, beggars and vagrants. Mahon Point was<br />
largely free of such criticisms; instead the main complaint related to the absence of<br />
particular shops – M&S, Dunnes and Penneys being frequently mentioned.<br />
4.17 On suggestions for improving the centres there were many respondents who did not<br />
voice a proposal – 44% at Mahon Point and 30% in the <strong>City</strong> centre. At Mahon Point the<br />
suggestions mirrored the criticisms relating to provision of particular shops or, more<br />
generally, a wider range of shops. In the <strong>City</strong> centre the main suggestions related to<br />
parking or better park & ride facilities. In addition there was a body of suggestions<br />
about pedestrianisation or improved pedestrian facilities, including the<br />
pedestrianisation of St Patrick Street.<br />
The Household Survey<br />
Comparison Shopping<br />
4.18 A prime purpose of the survey was to provide a basis for calculating market shares of<br />
the main centres in the county. For “pure” comparison shopping we asked the following<br />
questions, taking clothes and shoes as a proxy for this type of shopping (in a telephone<br />
survey it is not reasonable to go through all the individual components of comparison<br />
shopping)<br />
• In which centre do you do most of your shopping for clothes and shoes?<br />
• Do you shop in any other centre for clothes and shoes?<br />
4.19 To calculate market shares we combined the two sets of results using weighting<br />
factors derived from previous surveys in <strong>Cork</strong> and elsewhere. This weighting is more<br />
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detailed than the standard 70:30 split used by other practitioners. The results are given<br />
by the following table.<br />
Table 4.2 Market Shares for “Pure” Comparison Goods<br />
Zone<br />
<strong>City</strong> and<br />
Douglas<br />
Rest of<br />
Metropolitan<br />
Area<br />
Ring North Far west<br />
Centre % % % % %<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre 62.5 57.6 52.8 38.4 44.4<br />
Bandon 1.7 0.4 1.8 0.0 5.4<br />
Ballincollig 0.4 4.2 0.7 0.4 0.6<br />
Ballyvolane 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0<br />
Bishopstown Court 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 1.6<br />
Blackpool 2.1 1.9 2.4 3.4 3.2<br />
Carrigaline 0.0 1.8 0.1 1.2 0.0<br />
Clonakilty 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.0 13.4<br />
Douglas Court / Village 12.0 6.8 0.7 2.0 2.2<br />
Fermoy 0.0 0.0 3.2 4.4 0.6<br />
Macroom 0.0 0.1 6.3 0.0 3.5<br />
Mahon Point 13.8 14.5 2.9 5.9 5.7<br />
Mallow 0.1 0.6 11.2 24.2 0.0<br />
Midleton 1.2 4.2 3.5 0.0 0.0<br />
Mitchelstown 0.0 0.3 0.1 9.4 0.0<br />
Skibbereen 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 1.3<br />
Wilton 2.1 2.8 0.7 0.9 0.0<br />
Youghal 0.1 0.8 4.6 0.0 0.0<br />
Other County <strong>Cork</strong> 0.9 0.4 1.3 6.2 3.2<br />
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />
Other, outside County 0.7 1.5 6.4 3.5 14.9<br />
Mail order 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0<br />
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0<br />
4.20 <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre had by far the largest market share in each of the five zones, ranging<br />
from 63% in the <strong>City</strong> zone down to 38% in the North zone. Mahon Point was the next<br />
most important centre in the <strong>City</strong> and in the Outer Metropolitan Area, with market<br />
shares of around 14% in each of these zones. Douglas Court – together with Douglas<br />
Village – was important in the <strong>City</strong> zone (12%) and also in the Outer Metropolitan Area<br />
(7%). Further out, Mallow emerges as a major centre, with an 11% share of the Ring<br />
zone and 24% of the North zone. Apart from Clonakilty, which is important in the small<br />
far-western zone, all the remaining centres held market shares well below 10% in their<br />
respective zones. We show the individual centres to illustrate the spread of results but<br />
as pointed out in Appendix 4, the results for smaller centres are not statistically<br />
significant. For this reason the tables in later sections combine centres into groups.<br />
4.21 Leakages from the Study Area were concentrated in the three outer zones. Some were<br />
to nearby towns in adjoining counties, principally Killarney, Waterford and Tralee, while<br />
others were to Dublin, Limerick and cities in the United Kingdom. Neither mail order<br />
nor internet shopping feature strongly in the table.<br />
Supermarket shopping<br />
4.22 It is difficult for surveys of this kind to tackle the full range of convenience shopping.<br />
Respondents are normally able to give clear information about the supermarkets they<br />
use but shopping patterns at butchers, bakers, off-licences and other convenience<br />
outlets are often too complex to be dealt with in a brief interview. It is therefore our<br />
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policy to concentrate on supermarket shopping, which accounts for the great majority<br />
of convenience expenditure. Moreover, it is the location of new supermarkets that<br />
forms the centre of planning debate in the convenience sector.<br />
4.23 The questions asked in the household survey covered use of “main” and “other”<br />
supermarkets. As with comparison shopping the results of these two questions were<br />
merged to create market shares, using weighting factors derived from previous surveys<br />
in <strong>Cork</strong> and elsewhere.<br />
Table 4.3 Market Shares For Supermarket Shopping<br />
Zone<br />
<strong>City</strong> and<br />
Douglas<br />
Rest of<br />
Metropolitan<br />
Area<br />
Ring North Far west<br />
Centre % % % % %<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> city centre 18.0 4.5 2.6 0.4 4.4<br />
Bandon 0.5 0.9 2.0 0.0 5.1<br />
Ballincollig 0.8 13.1 0.4 0.4 0.0<br />
Ballyvolane 8.1 5.2 1.6 2.2 8.0<br />
Bishopstown Court 6.1 6.0 3.3 0.7 3.7<br />
Blackpool 3.5 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.0<br />
Bantry 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />
Carrigaline 1.8 18.6 0.9 2.2 0.0<br />
Clonakilty 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.0 38.2<br />
Cobh 0.0 5.1 0.1 0.0 0.0<br />
Douglas Court\ Village 30.6 8.4 0.9 1.9 2.2<br />
Fermoy 0.1 0.0 6.0 6.3 2.2<br />
Glanmire\Riverstown 1.1 3.4 0.1 0.0 0.0<br />
Kinsale 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0<br />
Macroom 0.1 0.0 16.5 1.9 7.4<br />
Mahon Point 6.2 1.6 0.5 1.5 0.8<br />
Mallow 0.3 0.6 25.0 39.6 2.9<br />
Midleton 2.0 14.9 4.9 0.0 2.2<br />
Mitchelstown 0.0 0.0 0.9 24.2 0.0<br />
Skibbereen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8<br />
Wilton 6.7 5.9 0.9 0.4 0.8<br />
Youghal 0.2 0.6 23.4 0.0 0.0<br />
Grange 2.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />
Charleville. 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.0 0.0<br />
Blarney 0.3 4.0 0.4 0.0 0.0<br />
Killarney 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.0 5.9<br />
Togher 4.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0<br />
Blackrock 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.7 0.0<br />
Other, inside Study Area 3.6 3.0 4.1 13.4 14.0<br />
Other, outside Study Area 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5<br />
Internet 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0<br />
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0<br />
4.24 The <strong>City</strong> was dominated by the Douglas area, which includes both Douglas Court and<br />
Douglas Village Shopping Centres together with older shops near the latter. Together,<br />
these had a 31% market share of the <strong>City</strong> zone with considerable encroachments on<br />
the Outer Metropolitan zone. The <strong>City</strong> centre had 18 percent of the <strong>City</strong> zone, followed<br />
by the other suburban centres at Ballyvolane, Bishopstown, Blackpool, Mahon Point,<br />
Wilton, Togher and Blackrock. In the Outer Metropolitan Area Ballincollig, Carrigaline<br />
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and Midleton each had shares well over 10%. Further out, Mallow emerged as a very<br />
important centre, with 25% of the Ring zone and 40% of the Northern zone.<br />
4.25 With the exception of Mallow, most zones had their principal centres in their own zone,<br />
reflecting the fact that supermarket shopping is a short-range business. In addition to<br />
those mentioned, Youghal and Macroom were very important in the Ring zone,<br />
Mitchelstown in the North zone and Clonakilty in the Far West. There was little<br />
evidence of leakage to centres outside the Study Area; Killarney took some trade from<br />
the small Far West zone, as did a few other external centres but these trades were<br />
small and probably were balanced by flows in the reverse direction<br />
Retail Warehouses<br />
4.26 We asked direct questions about use of retail warehouses. Respondents in the <strong>Cork</strong><br />
survey were asked to give the names and locations of up to three retail warehouses, in<br />
no particular order. About 40% said they had not used retail warehouse in the past<br />
year. With the rest, the answers were as follows.<br />
Table 4.4 Retail Warehouses Used In The Previous Twelve Months (All Three<br />
Answers Combined)<br />
Number %<br />
None used<br />
Atlantic Homecare 232 18.4<br />
B&Q 322 25.6<br />
Currys 85 6.8<br />
Homebase 73 5.8<br />
Woodies 328 26.1<br />
Harvey Normans 37 2.9<br />
Argos 12 1.0<br />
4 Home 68 5.4<br />
Sound Store 8 0.6<br />
Dixons 4 0.3<br />
TK Maxx 2 0.2<br />
PC World 13 1.0<br />
Right Price Tiles 2 0.2<br />
Flor Griffins 8 0.6<br />
Tubs and Tiles 2 0.2<br />
Halfords 9 0.7<br />
Dunnes Stores 2 0.2<br />
MD O Sheas. 7 0.6<br />
Other 45 3.6<br />
TOTAL 1259 100.0<br />
4.27 It can be seen that the great majority of answers related to DIY outlets, with Woodies<br />
heading the list, followed by B&Q and Atlantic Homecare. Apart from DIY, most of the<br />
remaining establishments were electrical or electronics outlets such as Curries, Dixons<br />
or PC World. Altogether, DIY outlets accounted for 83% of the places named and<br />
electrical/electronics for 13%. The main locations were Mahon Point, Blackpool and<br />
Kinsale Road.<br />
4.28 To get an indicative view of expenditure at retail warehouses we asked respondents to<br />
estimate how much had been spent at the places they named in the past year. They<br />
were asked to give their estimates in broad ranges (up to €50, €50 to €99; €100 to<br />
€499 and so on) but we have obtained absolute figures by interpolating within these<br />
ranges. The results were as follows:<br />
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Table 4.5 Estimated Expenditure In Retail Warehouses In The Previous Twelve Months<br />
<strong>City</strong> and<br />
Douglas<br />
Rest of<br />
Metropolitan<br />
Area Ring North Far west<br />
Average exp per household (€) 635.3 818.5 536.8 613.9 237.5<br />
Average household size (persons) 2.7 3.0 2.9 2.5 3.2<br />
Average RWH exp per capita (€) 234.2 274.7 185.1 249.2 75.4<br />
4.29 The results of such a question can only be taken as indicative and in the next section<br />
we make adjustments to these figures to take account of separate estimates of the<br />
trade of Study Area retail warehouses. But we retain the variation between the five<br />
zones which is plausible in terms of access to retail warehouses. The per-household<br />
figures are highest in the first two zones, where access is highest. They are lowest in<br />
the remote Far West zone. The North zone appears to be an anomaly but residents of<br />
this zone have access to the concentration of retail warehouses at Limerick (the<br />
sample size in this zone is also small).<br />
Views About The Centres<br />
4.30 Respondents were asked whether they were happy with the range and quality of<br />
shopping on offer. In all zones the great majority said they were very happy or<br />
somewhat happy with the shopping they could access. The proportions were no<br />
smaller in the remote North and Far West zones, where shopping facilities are sparse.<br />
Clearly, respondents were making allowance for this remoteness and felt that taking it<br />
into account, the shopping they could get to was in most cases good.<br />
4.31 Overall, the main criticisms concerned the range of shops available. Interestingly, this<br />
applied even in the inner zones and to <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre as well as the other two most<br />
frequently mentioned centres – Mallow and Youghal.<br />
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5 DEMAND ANALYSIS<br />
Introduction<br />
5.1 This Section provides an analysis of retail demand up to 2013 and then to 2020, split<br />
between comparison goods and convenience goods. The starting points are the<br />
market shares of each of the survey zones, previously defined in Section 4 and Figure<br />
4.1, derived from the household survey. These reflect current shopping patterns. We<br />
then apply these market shares to estimates of retail expenditure by residents in the<br />
base year, 2007, giving an expenditure pattern for the five zones of the Study Area and<br />
a total for the whole Study Area.<br />
5.2 Figures for imported expenditure, based on the shopper survey and Bord Failte data,<br />
are then added in to provide estimates of the turnover of each centre or area. These<br />
turnover estimates are tested by deriving sales per square metre for each of the main<br />
centres. The process is then shifted forward to 2013 and 2020 using data on future<br />
population growth and increases in retail expenditure. All prices in this and subsequent<br />
sections are at constant 2004 levels.<br />
Comparison Expenditure Patterns<br />
Base Year Expenditure<br />
5.3 The next table sets out comparison expenditure for each zone in 2007. Populations are<br />
as detailed in Appendix 1. Per-capita expenditure is derived from the RTP retail model,<br />
described in Appendix 4. Multiplying the population of each zone by its average percapita<br />
expenditure gives an estimate of total comparison goods spending in the Study<br />
Area which is shown in Table 5.1. It should be noted that this also includes a small<br />
element of turnover in shops which is generated by retail spending of local businesses<br />
on goods such as office supplies and stationery – Appendix 4 provides the details.<br />
Table 5.1 Expenditure By Residents On Comparison Goods, 2007 (€ million)<br />
<strong>City</strong> and<br />
Douglas<br />
Rest of<br />
Met.<br />
Area<br />
Ring North Far<br />
west<br />
Total %<br />
Comparison<br />
expenditure per<br />
capita 3,268 3,489 3,183 2,956 3,052<br />
Population 2007 139,454 139,335 106,991 45,533 57,914 489,227<br />
Total comparison<br />
expenditure (€ mill) 455.7 486.2 340.6 134.6 176.7 1,593.8 100.0<br />
Total RWH<br />
expenditure (€ mill) 68.4 80.2 41.5 23.8 9.1 222.9 14.0<br />
Pure comparison<br />
expenditure (€ mill) 387.3 406.0 299.1 110.8 167.6 1,370.9 86.0<br />
Note: market shares are rounded; the total does not add to 100 due to this rounding.<br />
5.4 Total comparison expenditure ranges from over €450 million in each of the two inner<br />
zones down to €135 million in the North zone. Total expenditure for the entire Study<br />
Area is €1,594 million<br />
5.5 The market shares shown in the previous section apply to “pure” comparison goods<br />
only (i.e. high street type shopping, but not retail warehouses) so it is necessary to<br />
deduct an estimate for comparison goods expenditure in retail warehouses. In 2007<br />
the Study Area had around 89,000 sq m of retail warehousing which, at an average<br />
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density of €2,500 per sq m, would have a turnover of around €222.9 million. We<br />
assume that there are no net imports or exports of retail warehouse expenditure to the<br />
Study area. Consequently, this turnover is equivalent to expenditure by Study Area<br />
residents. We then adjust the expenditure estimates so as to provide separate<br />
estimates of spending on “pure” comparison goods and retail warehouses.<br />
5.6 When the €222.9 million retail warehouse expenditure is subtracted from the entire<br />
€1593.8 million comparison figure there remains €1370.9 million as non-retail<br />
warehouse or “pure comparison”. Table 5.2 applies this expenditure – zone by zone – to<br />
the market shares derived in the previous section.<br />
5.7 As indicated in paragraph 29 of Appendix 3 the differences between the market shares<br />
of some of the smaller centres are not statistically significant. Consequently, the<br />
estimates of future retail requirements are output to nine main retail groupings: <strong>Cork</strong><br />
<strong>City</strong> centre (including potential extensions to it and Docklands), Mahon Point, Douglas<br />
Court/Village, other <strong>Cork</strong> suburbs, outer metropolitan centres, Mallow, other Ring<br />
towns, other county <strong>Cork</strong> and outside the county.<br />
Table 5.2 Expenditure by Residents On Non-RWH Comparison Goods, 2007<br />
Zone<br />
<strong>City</strong> and<br />
Douglas<br />
Rest of<br />
Met.<br />
Area<br />
Ring North Far<br />
West<br />
Total<br />
Market<br />
share<br />
Centre<br />
€ mill € mill € mill € mill € mill € mill %<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> city centre 242.2 234.1 157.9 42.6 74.4 751.2 55<br />
Mahon Point 53.6 58.8 8.6 6.5 9.6 137.1 10<br />
Douglas Court\ Village 46.6 27.5 2.1 2.2 3.7 82.1 6<br />
Other <strong>Cork</strong> suburbs 24.5 25.3 10.3 4.7 8.0 72.8 5<br />
Outer met centres 6.2 41.3 13.0 1.8 1.1 63.3 5<br />
Mallow 0.3 2.4 33.6 26.8 0.0 63.2 5<br />
Other Ring towns 6.8 5.4 47.4 4.9 16.0 80.5 6<br />
Other County <strong>Cork</strong> 4.1 5.1 6.4 17.4 29.9 62.9 5<br />
Other, outside County 2.9 6.2 19.7 3.9 25.0 57.8 4<br />
TOTAL 387.3 406.0 299.1 110.8 167.6 1,370.9 100.0<br />
Market shares are rounded and therefore do not exactly add to 100<br />
The other <strong>Cork</strong> suburbs are Ballyvolane, Bishopstown Court, Blackpool and Wilton<br />
The outer metropolitan centres are Ballincollig, Carrigaline and Midleton<br />
The other Ring towns are Bandon, Fermoy, Macroom and Youghal<br />
5.8 The penultimate column gives total expenditure in each centre by residents of the<br />
Study Area. Overall market shares for the entire Study Area, are given by the final<br />
column. It can be seen that <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre accounts for 55% of residents “pure”<br />
comparison goods expenditure. The next most important centre is Mahon Point, with<br />
10%, followed by Douglas Court/Village with 6% and Mallow with 5%. The other <strong>Cork</strong><br />
suburbs collectively have 5% and similar proportions apply to the outer metropolitan<br />
centres and the other Ring towns. Centres outside the Study Area account for 4% of<br />
residents’ expenditure. Table 5.4 gives an overview of changes over time, showing the<br />
results of our previous surveys in 1997 and 2001.<br />
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Table 5.3 Changes In Market Shares For Non-RWH Comparison Goods, 1997-07<br />
1997 2001 2007<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Centre 70 64 55<br />
Suburban Centres 11 11 11<br />
Mahon Point - - 10<br />
Ring towns 10 12 11<br />
Metropolitan towns 2 1 5<br />
Other 7 12 8<br />
TOTAL 100<br />
5.9 Given the margins of error in a comparison like this it is unwise to make much of small<br />
changes. It is clear however that there has been a continuous decline in the market<br />
share of the <strong>City</strong> Centre – from 70% in 1997 down to 64% in 2001 and 55% in 2007.<br />
This decline is a result of the time taken to implement any substantial retail<br />
development schemes in the <strong>City</strong> Centre and the decision to plan for Mahon Point in<br />
order to meet demand arising at that time. Throughout the period, the share of the<br />
suburban centres has remained broadly constant – they have managed to<br />
accommodate the substantial increases in expenditure without major extensions to<br />
their floorspace. And with no increase in the established suburban centres the slack<br />
has been taken up by Mahon Point, built since 2001, whose present market share is<br />
10%.<br />
5.10 The Ring towns have more or less held their own, partly due to the strong showing by<br />
Mallow in the 2007 survey. There has been a strengthening of the metropolitan towns,<br />
following substantial retail developments in Ballincollig and Midleton. In the period<br />
1997 to 2001 it looks like there was a temporary absorption of pressure by “other”<br />
centres, including those outside the Study Area.<br />
Turnover Tests<br />
5.11 We have investigated the implications of the above results for the sales densities of<br />
groups of centres. These are shown in the chart below.<br />
Figure 5.1 Typical Existing Non-RWH Comparison Goods Sales Densities<br />
Rest of county<br />
Ring towns<br />
Outer met centres<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> suburbs<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> city centre<br />
- 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000<br />
5.12 We have taken account of estimates for imports of spending from outside the Study<br />
Area, based on the results of the shopper survey. Imports to the <strong>City</strong> Centre and<br />
Mahon Point are 14% and 8% of the total turnover (not the residents’ contribution).<br />
Based on location and relative attraction, we estimate comparable figures to be 5% for<br />
Mallow and 4% for Douglas.<br />
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5.13 Sales densities in the <strong>City</strong> Centre are well over €11,000 per sqm and for the suburbs<br />
are well over €8,000 per sqm. These figures are perfectly plausible, given the rapid<br />
growth of expenditure in recent years and the relatively slow expansion of retail<br />
floorspace. Average sales densities in the ring towns are €6,000 per sqm and in the<br />
outer metropolitan centres are almost €5,000 per sqm.<br />
5.14 Average sales densities in the other county towns derived from the survey evidence<br />
are a little under €2,000 per sqm. Whilst we would expect sales densities in these<br />
towns to be somewhat lower than elsewhere in the retail hierarchy this is possibly an<br />
under-estimate reflecting the fact that survey responses tend not to give these towns<br />
as primary destinations for comparison shopping. In practice, we would expect new<br />
development in these towns to be achieving about €3,500 per sqm.<br />
Comparison Expenditure Projection to 2013 and 2020<br />
5.15 We now estimate the growth of comparison expenditure from 2007 to the forecast<br />
years of 2013 and 2020. For this purpose the calculation is carried out for all<br />
comparison expenditure, including the retail warehouse element, since it is a matter for<br />
future policy how the total comparison goods spending pot should be distributed<br />
between retail warehouses and other outlets. The process is first to multiply the<br />
projected population at the forecast years by per capita expenditure to give total 2013<br />
and 2020 comparison expenditure by residents. (The derivation of base year and<br />
future populations is set out in Appendix 1. Similarly, Appendix 4 deals with base year<br />
and per-capita income and shows how per-capita figures are derived for individual<br />
zones according to their socio-economic composition). These steps are carried out for<br />
each of the five retail zones to give an idea of the geographical distribution of the<br />
increase in locally-generated expenditure. It does not of course follow that these<br />
increases should be accommodated in the zone in which they occur, but this is one<br />
factor to take into account, as discussed in the Section dealing with strategy options.<br />
5.16 Next, at the Study Area level, estimates of imported expenditure are added in. Imports<br />
of expenditure from outside the Study Area are based on the shopper survey results<br />
for Mahon Point and the <strong>City</strong> Centre together with broad estimates for the smaller<br />
towns, cross-checked against tourist expenditure from Bord Failte. This gives a total<br />
quantum of imported spending of €162.2 million p.a. It is assumed that these imports<br />
will in future bear a constant relationship to residents’ expenditure, so that as residents’<br />
expenditure increases, gains from outside increase pro-rata.<br />
5.17 Next, allowance is made for increases in special forms of trading (SFT). This term<br />
covers non-store retail expenditure – by mail order, by internet and at street markets.<br />
Of these, internet trading is the main growth area and is expected to make inroads into<br />
store –based expenditure over the next decade, a major determinant being the level of<br />
broadband internet connections. The calculations of Appendix 4 - being based on the<br />
ASI - include SFT and in fact there is little detailed evidence on special forms of trading<br />
in the Republic. The assumption made here is that these forms of trading eat into<br />
store-based expenditure by an amount that increases by 0.35% of residents’<br />
expenditure in each year after the base year.<br />
5.18 Finally, in order to obtain the expenditure available for new floorspace we deduct the<br />
turnover of existing floorspace. This was estimated by the simple process of adding<br />
imported expenditure to residents’ expenditure and deducting exports. Because<br />
current sales densities are very high we do not assume any increase over time.<br />
5.19 Table 5.4 shows that up to 2013 there will be €685 million available to support new<br />
comparison floorspace. Up to 2020 there will be €2,269 million.<br />
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Table 5.4 Potential Turnover For Comparison Goods to 2013 and 2020<br />
Zone<br />
<strong>City</strong> and<br />
Douglas<br />
Rest of<br />
Met.<br />
Area<br />
Ring North Far West Total<br />
€ mill € mill € mill € mill € mill € mill<br />
2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007<br />
Expenditure by residents<br />
(€ millions) 455.7 486.2 340.6 134.6 176.7 1,593.8<br />
Imported expenditure<br />
(€ millions) 162.2<br />
Total comparison expenditure<br />
(€ millions) 1,756.0<br />
Increase in SFT<br />
(€ millions) 0.0<br />
Sales from 2007 floorspace<br />
(€ millions) 1,756.0<br />
Residual for new floorspace<br />
(€ millions) 0.0<br />
2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013<br />
Per capita expenditure (€) 4,210.8 4,496.1 4,101.5 3,808.9 3,932.4 4,208.0<br />
Population 150,577 165,699 110,206 48,566 61,770 536,818<br />
Expenditure by residents<br />
(€ millions) 634.0 745.0 452.0 185.0 242.9 2,258.9<br />
Growth from 2007<br />
(€ millions 201.6 292.2 126.1 57.0 74.8 751.8<br />
Imported expenditure<br />
(€ millions) 229.9<br />
Total comparison sales<br />
(€ millions) 2,488.9<br />
Increase in SFT<br />
(€ millions) 47.4<br />
Sales from 2007 floorspace<br />
(€ millions) 1,756.0<br />
Residual for new floorspace<br />
(€ millions) 685.4<br />
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020<br />
Per capita expenditure (€) 6,251.4 6,675.0 6,089.2 5,654.7 5,838.1 6,262.9<br />
Population 167,811 201,121 120,693 52,260 66,469 608,354<br />
Expenditure by residents<br />
(€ millions) 1,049.1 1,342.5 734.9 295.5 388.1 3,810.0<br />
Growth from 2007<br />
(€ millions 593.3 856.3 394.4 160.9 211.3 2,216.3<br />
Imported expenditure<br />
(€ millions) 387.8<br />
Total comparison sales<br />
(€ millions) 4,197.9<br />
Increase in SFT<br />
€ millions) 173.4<br />
Sales from 2007 floorspace<br />
(€ millions) 1,756.0<br />
Residual for new floorspace<br />
(€ millions) 2,268.5<br />
5.20 Because sales densities are already high in most centres, we do not make any<br />
allowance for increases to 2013 or 2020, although this position will need to be<br />
reviewed over time as new development is implemented. We recommend a review in<br />
2012.<br />
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5.21 There is little scope for substantive new development up to 2013. Research carried out<br />
in conjunction with the <strong>City</strong> <strong>Council</strong> and County <strong>Council</strong> has shown that planning<br />
permissions for substantial amounts of comparison floorspace have already been<br />
granted in the Study Area. Total outstanding commitments - including schemes under<br />
construction in mid 2007 and those not yet started - are for 40,864sqm (net) of retail<br />
warehousing and 74,198sqm (net) of other comparison floorspace. In total, this is<br />
equivalent to more than half of the comparable existing floorspace in the entire Study<br />
Area Details are shown in Appendix 4.<br />
5.22 We estimate the turnover of these commitments to be €713.3 million (see Table 5.5)<br />
which exceeds the theoretical estimate of “residual” additional turnover in 2013 set out<br />
in Table 5.4 above ( €685 million). As shown in Table 5.5, once account is taken of<br />
current commitments (and assuming that they are all implemented) there will be<br />
€1,551.3 million available to support new comparison floorspace (including retail<br />
warehousing) up to 2020.<br />
Table 5.5 Estimated Turnover of Current Commitments to 2020<br />
sq m net € per sq m turnover (€<br />
mill)<br />
Committed retail warehousing 40,865 2,500 102.2<br />
Other comparison commitments, <strong>City</strong> Centre 37,085 10,000 370.9<br />
Other comparison commitments, suburbs 10,777 8,000 86.2<br />
Other comparison commitments, elsewhere 26,336 6,000 158.0<br />
TOTAL 717.3<br />
Residual 2007-2020 2,268.5<br />
Left for new schemes 1,551.3<br />
5.23 However, this analysis takes no account of the fact that, based on experience of large<br />
scale retail development, the new <strong>City</strong> centre developments would probably have an<br />
impact on existing floorspace in the <strong>City</strong> centre of around 10%, by diverting trade from<br />
existing shops to the new developments. In other words, some of the turnover<br />
achieved within the emerging retail schemes would be supported by trade diversion<br />
rather than a call on the projected growth in consumer spending. The way in which<br />
this could work is illustrated below in Table 5.6.<br />
Table 5.6 : Impact of <strong>City</strong> Centre Retail Development (€million)<br />
Turnover of <strong>City</strong> Centre Before Impact<br />
Trade diverted by 10% impact<br />
Turnover generated by <strong>City</strong> centre commitments<br />
Trade drawn from expenditure growth<br />
€874<br />
€87.4<br />
€377.0<br />
€289.6<br />
5.24 As a consequence there would be some €87.4 million of potential turnover released<br />
which could support some additional retail development in the <strong>City</strong> centre both prior to<br />
2013 and thereafter. This is still relatively small in terms of the total growth in Study<br />
Area expenditure. In Section 6 this figure has been added to the €1,551.3 million<br />
shown in Table 5.3 to give a total sum of €1,638.7 million.<br />
Convenience Goods<br />
5.25 A similar projection methodology has been adopted for forecasting future<br />
convenience goods floorspace requirements. We use the population projections<br />
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set out in Appendix 1 and the estimates of per capita spending on convenience<br />
goods set out in Appendix 4. Table 5.7 sets out the assessment.<br />
5.26 It should be noted that with convenience shopping we make no allowance for<br />
imported expenditure, it being assumed that imports and exports will balance out,<br />
given the short-distance nature of convenience shopping. The turnover of existing<br />
floorspace is therefore equal to residents’ expenditure. It is also assumed that<br />
sales through street markets and mail order remain constant. There will be some<br />
increase in internet trading but, with convenience goods, internet deliveries are<br />
made from supermarkets and count towards the supermarkets’ conventional<br />
turnover. The sales density of stores’ 2007 floorspace is increased at the rate of<br />
0.3% per annum so the turnover of the 2007 floorspace grows slightly over time.<br />
Table 5.7 Potential Turnover For Convenience Goods<br />
<strong>City</strong> and<br />
Douglas<br />
Rest of<br />
Metropolitan<br />
Area<br />
Ring North Far west Total<br />
2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2,007<br />
1 Expenditure index 100.3 102.4 99.2 97.0 97.1<br />
2 Per capita expenditure (€) 3,058 3,122 3,024 2,958 2,961 3,048<br />
3 Population 139,454 139,335 106,991 45,533 57,914 489,227<br />
4 Expenditure by residents (€ millions) 426.5 435.0 323.5 134.7 171.5 1,491<br />
5 Net imports of expenditure (€ millions) -<br />
6 Total convenience expenditure (€ millions) 1,491<br />
7 Increase in SFT (€ millions) -<br />
8 Sales from 2007 floorspace (€ millions) 1,491<br />
9 Residual for new floorspace (€ millions) -<br />
2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013<br />
10 Per capita expenditure (€) 3,150 3,215 3,114 3,046 3,049 3,142<br />
11 Population 150,577 165,699 110,206 48,566 61,770 536,818<br />
12 Expenditure by residents (€ millions) 474.3 532.8 343.2 147.9 188.3 1,686<br />
13 Growth from 2007 (€ millions 54.7 112.7 22.2 15.1 19.3 224<br />
14 Net imports of expenditure (€ millions) -<br />
15 Total convenience expenditure (€ millions) 1,686<br />
16 Increase in SFT (€ millions)<br />
17 Sales from 2006 floorspace (€ millions) 1,518<br />
18 Residual for new floorspace (€ millions) 168<br />
2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020<br />
19 Per capita expenditure (€) 3,499 3,572 3,459 3,383 3,387 3,493<br />
20 Population 167,811 201,121 120,693 52,260 66,469 608,354<br />
21 Expenditure by residents (€ millions) 587.1 718.3 417.5 176.8 225.1 2,125<br />
22 Growth from 2007 (€ millions 167.5 298.2 96.5 44.0 56.1 662<br />
23 Net imports of expenditure (€ millions) -<br />
24 Total convenience expenditure (€ millions) 2,125<br />
25 Increase in SFT (€ millions)<br />
26 Sales from 2006 floorspace (€ millions) 1,550<br />
27 Residual for new floorspace (€ millions) - - - - - 574<br />
5.27 The residual expenditure available for new convenience goods floorspace is €168<br />
million by 2013 and €574 million by 2020. As before, we compare this with existing<br />
commitments for convenience floorspace (Table 5.8). Full details of these<br />
commitments are given in Appendix 2.<br />
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Table 5.8 Estimated Turnover of Current Convenience Commitments, 2013<br />
Sq m net € per sq m<br />
Turnover<br />
(€ mill)<br />
Convenience commitment of 2,000m 2 or over 3,000 11,500.0 34.5<br />
Convenience commitment less than 2,000m 2 21,508 6,000.0 129.0<br />
TOTAL 24,508 163.5<br />
5.28 Existing commitments for convenience floorspace total about 24,500 sq m. Some<br />
3,000 sq m will be large units – likely to be occupied by “high-level” operators such as<br />
Tesco or Dunnes, who can be expected to have sales densities around €11,500 per sq<br />
m by 2013. The remainder will be for “lower level” supermarket operators or<br />
discounters such as Lidl or Aldi, whose sales density would be around €6,000 per sq<br />
m. Multiplying through by these densities gives a total turnover of €163.5 million.<br />
Assuming that these commitments are implemented, the turnover generated is close to<br />
the residual expenditure available by 2013, which is €168 million. So, once again,<br />
there is little scope for additional development at this stage. By 2020, however, there<br />
will be over €400 million available for additional retail floorspace in the convenience<br />
sector.<br />
5.29 We have looked at the position in 2013 for individual zones to see whether there may<br />
be some slack in particular areas. To this end, Table 5.9 breaks down the<br />
commitments for each zone, calculates their turnover and compares this with the<br />
residuals of Table 5.7. (To calculate the turnovers we follow the overall sales density<br />
implied by Table 5.8 – that is, €163.5 million divided by 24,500 sq m which is €6,673<br />
per sq m).<br />
Table 5.9 Residuals and Commitments by zone, 2013<br />
<strong>City</strong> and<br />
Douglas<br />
Rest of<br />
Metropolitan<br />
Area<br />
Ring North Far west<br />
Residual for new floorspace (€ millions) 40 90 14 11 14<br />
Committed floorspace (sq m) 7,033 6,744 5,380 3,426 1,925<br />
Sales density (€ per sq m) 6,673 6,673 6,673 6,673 6,673<br />
Turnover of commitments (€ mill) 47 45 36 23 13<br />
Difference from residual (€ mill) (7) 45 (22) (12) 1<br />
5.30 For three zones, the estimated turnover of the commitments exceeds the residual<br />
expenditure. In the Rest of the Metropolitan Area there is a surplus of €45 million of<br />
available expenditure to support new development and there is a very small surplus in<br />
the Far West zone.<br />
5.31 By 2020 there will be more expenditure available for additional retail floorspace in the<br />
convenience sector. For the whole Study Area, total growth up to that year is €574<br />
million and deduction of the turnover of commitments gives a residual of €410.5<br />
million.<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
5.32 Whilst there is little theoretical need for new retail development (both convenience and<br />
comparison) by 2013, with the exception of the Rest of the Metropolitan Area it is<br />
evident that it takes time to bring forward new development. We address this issue in<br />
the next Section.<br />
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6 STRATEGY<br />
Introduction<br />
6.1 As set out in the previous Section, there will be limited surplus expenditure at 2013 to<br />
support either new comparison or convenience floorspace, due to the large number of<br />
current commitments. By 2020, however, there will be around €1,639 million of<br />
spending available to support new comparison floorspace and over €400 million<br />
available to support new convenience floorspace. This is expenditure remaining after<br />
commitments have been deducted. We now consider how best to distribute, manage<br />
and monitor new development.<br />
Distribution of New Comparison Goods Floorspace<br />
Overall Approach<br />
6.2 The main focus for retail growth will be in the <strong>City</strong> and metropolitan <strong>Cork</strong>. This is where<br />
most population growth is envisaged. Furthermore, the <strong>City</strong> centre should remain a key<br />
sequential priority for high order comparison shopping, reflecting the NSS.<br />
6.3 Although there is little theoretical need for new floorspace up to 2013, the <strong>Council</strong>s<br />
should start planning for beyond this period. Retail development can take several<br />
years to come forward and so new sites should be identified and promoted now. Large<br />
comparison goods development can take five years or more to bring forward.<br />
Convenience goods development can take three years or thereabouts.<br />
6.4 There is a range of options for the distribution of new comparison floorspace<br />
development in the 2007-2020 period. The <strong>Council</strong>s can choose to allocate new<br />
floorspace in accordance with market demand, or in line with population change, or<br />
somewhere in between. Table 6.1, below, sets three options; 1 and 2 are at opposite<br />
ends of the spectrum and 3 is a mid-point.<br />
Table 6.1 Comparison Floorspace (Sales Floorspace) : Options for Distribution 2007-2020<br />
OPTION 1 OPTION 2 OPTION 3<br />
Growth allocated in proportion to<br />
increase in residents' expenditure<br />
but with <strong>City</strong> Centre kept at 50%;<br />
outside county at 3% and retail<br />
warehouses raised to 15%<br />
Growth allocated in accordance<br />
with 2007 market shares<br />
market<br />
share<br />
addtl<br />
exp<br />
€<br />
million<br />
addtl<br />
frsp<br />
sq m<br />
mrkt<br />
share<br />
addtl<br />
exp<br />
€<br />
million<br />
addtl<br />
frsp<br />
sq m<br />
<strong>City</strong> Centre, outside county<br />
and retail warehouses as in<br />
option 2. Otherwise between<br />
options 1 & 2<br />
mrkt<br />
share<br />
addtl<br />
exp<br />
€<br />
million<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> city<br />
centre* 50% 814 77,461 50% 814 77,461 50% 814 77,461<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> suburbs<br />
inc Mahon Pt 18% 289 36,703 9% 140 17,755 13% 209 26,577<br />
Outer<br />
metropolitan 4% 62 10,751 12% 201 34,866 8% 128 22,085<br />
Ring towns<br />
9% 144 4,978 6% 96 16,578 7% 111 19,168<br />
Other County<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> 4% 65 17,702 5% 86 23,352 5% 75 20,467<br />
Outside<br />
County 3% 54 3% 54 3% 54<br />
Retail<br />
warehouses 13% 208 79,074 15% 245 93,435 15% 245 93,435<br />
TOTAL** 100% 1,636 246,670 100% 1,636 263,448 100% 1,636 259,193<br />
*Inc. Docklands and other neighbourhood centres<br />
**An indicative distribution of retail warehouse provision is given at paragraph 6.67<br />
addtl<br />
frsp<br />
sq m<br />
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6.5 The market shares for the <strong>City</strong> centre and outside the County are kept constant for all<br />
three options.<br />
6.6 It should be noted that the indicative guideline floorspace for <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre includes<br />
development of retailing in the District and Neighbourhood centres proposed for<br />
Docklands in line with population and employment growth.<br />
6.7 Option 1 allocates new floorspace in accordance with the observed 2007 market<br />
shares (as derived from the household survey, modified by estimates of imported<br />
expenditure). It is therefore in line with current market demand, because developers<br />
want to develop new floorspace in the most popular locations. Under this option, a<br />
large amount of new floorspace would be provided in the <strong>Cork</strong> suburbs (including<br />
Mahon Point) and in the ring towns. This option allocates 13% to support new retail<br />
warehouses; this being the current aggregate market share being achieved by retail<br />
warehouses.<br />
6.8 Option 2 allocates new floorspace in accordance with the increase in residents’<br />
expenditure by zone. This is in turn related to population projections – those areas<br />
where population will grow faster will have a corresponding increase in expenditure.<br />
This option therefore allocates new floorspace in accordance with the planning<br />
objectives of sustainable development, on the assumption that if new retailing is<br />
provided in locations where population is growing, new residents will in theory not need<br />
to travel long distances to undertake their shopping. The update of CASP will take<br />
place over the coming months, which will confirm the population growth of the Outer<br />
Metropolitan and Ring towns.<br />
6.9 Under this option, a large amount of new floorspace would be provided in the outer<br />
metropolitan area and in other County towns (i.e. in North and West <strong>Cork</strong>). This option<br />
allocates 15% to support new retail warehouses. We have allowed for a small increase<br />
in the retail warehouse market share to levels achieved elsewhere.<br />
6.10 Option 3 lies between Options 1 and 2, although for retail warehousing it allocates the<br />
same proportion as Option 2 (15%). Taking this option would mean spreading new<br />
development more evenly. It would mean planning for sustainable growth whilst still<br />
taking into account the requirements of the market – and therefore ensuring that new<br />
development is in locations which are attractive to the market. There would still be a<br />
large amount of new development in the suburbs – around 27,000sqm. In the Outer<br />
Metropolitan Area around 22,000 sqm would be provided with 19,000 sq m in the Ring<br />
towns and some 20,500sqm in the other County towns. The 15% of expenditure to<br />
support new retail warehousing would equate to around 94,000sqm.<br />
6.11 When considered as at the time of writing this report, Option 3 is the best approach<br />
because it combines the demands of the market with the <strong>Council</strong>’s aims of sustainable<br />
new development related to population growth. It promotes the development of<br />
260,000 sqm of additional comparison goods sales floorspace. Once again, this<br />
strategy would need to be reviewed in 2012.<br />
6.12 Although <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre is allocated a half of the projected growth in turnover, once<br />
account is taken of differential sales densities, the <strong>City</strong> will be gaining approximately 30<br />
per cent of new floorspace. The suburbs get some 10 per cent and the outer<br />
metropolitan towns 8.5 percent. The Ring towns get 7.5 per cent and the other County<br />
towns nearly 8 per cent. The allocation to retail warehouses is 36 per cent of the total<br />
floorspace, due to the low sales density for this type of retailing.<br />
6.13 In <strong>Cork</strong> Suburbs, with three District Centres on the south side of the city, there is an<br />
imbalance in retail provision between the northside and southside, relative to<br />
population distribution. It is proposed therefore that future comparison floorspace be<br />
allocated 40% northside and 60% southside in an attempt to address this imbalance.<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
Distribution of New Convenience Goods Floorspace<br />
Overall Approach<br />
6.14 We have shown in Section 5 that convenience expenditure growth is outweighed by<br />
the prospective turnover of current commitments so there is little scope for immediate<br />
further development. But from 2013 to 2020 there will be further expenditure growth<br />
which will support additional increases in floorspace. Table 6.2 shows how this growth<br />
could be distributed between the five zones of the Study Area.<br />
Table 6.2 Convenience goods floorspace requirement 2013-2020 (square metres)<br />
<strong>City</strong> and<br />
Douglas<br />
Rest of<br />
Metropolitan<br />
Area Ring North Far west<br />
Study Area<br />
Total<br />
Residual for new<br />
floorspace (€ millions) 144 266 81 37 47 574<br />
Turnover of commitments<br />
(€ mill) 47 45 36 23 13 164<br />
Surplus over residual (€<br />
mill) 97 221 45 13 34 410<br />
Floorspace requirement at<br />
€11,740 / sqm 8,262 18,825 3,833 1,145 2,873 34,923<br />
Floorspace requirement at<br />
€6,130 / sqm 15,824 36,052 7,340 2,194 5,502 66,884<br />
Average 12,043 27,438 5,586 1,669 4,187 50,903<br />
6.15 Up to 2013, expenditure growth on convenience goods will be €168 million. However,<br />
the large number of current commitments (24,500 sqm net) will achieve a turnover of<br />
€164 million, so there is little scope for immediate further development.<br />
6.16 Between 2013 and 2020, there will further expenditure growth. Because convenience<br />
spend is localised, we recommend allocating this on the basis of the broad distribution<br />
set out in Table 6.2.<br />
6.17 The first row of the table gives residual expenditure, as in Table 5.7. This totals € 574<br />
million for the whole study area, distributed between the individual zones as shown.<br />
We then deduct the estimated turnover of current commitments at a slightly higher<br />
level than that shown for 2013 in Table 5.8 to allow for a modest increase in sales<br />
density. The remainder - €410 million – is then converted into floorspace requirements<br />
under two separate assumptions: the first using a sales density of €11,740 per sq m<br />
(appropriate to large operators such as Tesco or Dunnes) the second using €6,130<br />
(appropriate to smaller operators). For the entire Study Area the results vary from<br />
some 35,000 to 67,000 sq m, with an average of 51,000 sqm of additional sales area<br />
floorspace.<br />
6.18 The amount of floorspace that this will support is dependent on occupiers, because<br />
different retailers have different sales densities. Higher quality operators such as Tesco<br />
and Dunnes currently have sales densities of around €11,500 / sqm whereas smaller<br />
supermarkets and discounter operators have sales densities of around €6,000 / sqm.<br />
6.19 We recommend that the <strong>Council</strong>s plan for new floorspace based on the average of the<br />
two figures. However, it is important that development is closely monitored so that the<br />
floorspace requirement can be adjusted depending on what exactly is built and<br />
occupied.<br />
6.20 The distribution of convenience floorspace should be allocated based on existing<br />
population distribution and planned population growth.<br />
6.21 In the <strong>City</strong> & Douglas, the focus should be on improving the range and quality of<br />
foodstores in sustainable locations. In the <strong>City</strong> suburbs new convenience retailing<br />
should be distributed to help redress the balance between the north side and the south<br />
side on the basis of 40% north side and 60% southside. In the County, development<br />
should be focused on towns which currently have limited provision.<br />
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<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
6.22 Planning applications should be assessed on their merits according to detailed criteria<br />
(discussed later).<br />
Retail Hierarchy<br />
Overview<br />
6.23 The NSS provides for increasing urbanisation of the population and achievement of<br />
critical mass in large multi-faceted town centres. Some of the centres should therefore<br />
be expanded and strengthened to meet the needs of their growing populations.<br />
6.24 The NSS has an Atlantic Gateway Corridor Initiative from Waterford to Galway<br />
incorporating the Gateway of <strong>Cork</strong> and the Hub of Mallow, which aims to<br />
counterbalance the development in Dublin. This will have a significant bearing on the<br />
towns along the “Gateway”; namely Youghal, Midleton, Carrigtwohill, Blarney, Mallow,<br />
Buttevant and Charleville – market demand for new retail floorspace in these towns is<br />
likely to increase.<br />
6.25 Allocations for retail floorspace must be geographical or town catchment specific.<br />
Peripheral towns need more self sufficiency for local shopping trips to serve their own<br />
catchments. Our recommendations for the retail hierarchy are summarised in Table<br />
6.3 on the next page.<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
6.26 <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Centre is the primary retail centre in the County and the region and should<br />
continue to be the focus for most comparison retail development in the south of the<br />
country.<br />
6.27 The <strong>City</strong> Centre is undergoing major central development at present, with large<br />
developments under construction at the Guy’s site, Cornmarket Street and at St.<br />
Patrick’s Street/Emmet Place. Also under construction is a new Dunnes store and a<br />
retail warehousing scheme at the An Post site, Eglinton Street. In addition there is<br />
planning permission for a range of new convenience and comparison floorspace at<br />
Grand Parade, Lavitt’s Quay, Merchants Quay and St. Patrick’s Quay, and a proposal<br />
for retail development at the Capitol Cinema site.<br />
6.28 The <strong>City</strong> Centre is undergoing significant expansion through edge-of-centre<br />
redevelopment, most notably on the <strong>Cork</strong> Docklands. While the Docklands will not be<br />
primarily developed as a retail destination it will have an element of both convenience<br />
and comparison floorspace.<br />
6.29 The retail centres/services in the Docklands are to be rolled out in tandem with the<br />
20,000 additional population anticipated in the area and will need to begin in the 2013-<br />
2020 timeframe.<br />
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Table 6.3 Retail Hierarchy<br />
Description Centres Objectives<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong><br />
Tier 2<br />
<strong>City</strong><br />
Expansion to provide large floorplates<br />
to attract more premium occupiers<br />
Docklands<br />
Provision of new retail at Docklands to<br />
serve new residential & employment<br />
development<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> Suburbs – District<br />
Centres<br />
Blackpool, Douglas, Wilton.<br />
Possibility of new/expanded<br />
district centres to serve northeast<br />
and north-west.<br />
Development of mixed use to include<br />
retail, with urban design and access<br />
improvements<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> Suburbs –<br />
Neighbourhood Centres<br />
Outer Metropolitan<br />
Tier 3/4<br />
Ring Towns<br />
Tier 3<br />
Other County <strong>Cork</strong><br />
Tier 4<br />
Mahon<br />
Bishopstown, Bishopstown<br />
Court, Togher, Hollyhill,<br />
Ballyvolane, Kinsale Road<br />
Ballincollig, Blarney, Midleton,<br />
Carrigaline – Tier 3<br />
Monard<br />
Carrigtwohill – Tier 4<br />
Glanmire, Tower, Little Island,<br />
Passage West – Tier 4<br />
Cobh – Tier 3<br />
Mallow<br />
Youghal, Macroom<br />
Bandon, Fermoy<br />
Kinsale<br />
Clonakilty<br />
Kanturk, Charleville, Bantry,<br />
Mitchelstown, Skibbereen,<br />
Buttevant<br />
No significant retail expansion<br />
envisaged. Mixed use with urban design<br />
and access improvements desirable<br />
Prevention of change of use of local<br />
shops to non-retail. Small-scale<br />
expansion.<br />
Expansion in line with planned<br />
population increase.<br />
Provision of retailing as part of new<br />
settlement<br />
Expansion when new housing or<br />
employment developments come<br />
forward<br />
Incremental growth in line with current<br />
and planned population levels.<br />
Provision of more convenience and<br />
tourism comparison floorspace<br />
Expansion in line with hub town status,<br />
to provide large floorplates to attract<br />
more premium occupiers. Should be<br />
developed as one of the largest towns<br />
in the County.<br />
Expansion in line with planned<br />
population growth<br />
Expansion with potential for town centre<br />
regeneration<br />
Consolidation as local service and<br />
tourism centre<br />
Expansion to become the main retail<br />
centre in West <strong>Cork</strong><br />
Incremental growth in line with current<br />
and planned population levels<br />
Millstreet, Newmarket,<br />
Consolidation as local service centres.<br />
Dunmanway,<br />
Castletownbere, Schull<br />
Note: the specification of hierarchical tiers is taken from the Retail Planning Guidelines.<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> Suburbs – District Centres<br />
6.30 Currently there are four suburban District Centres on the outer edge of the <strong>Cork</strong> urban<br />
area. One to the north (Blackpool) one to the south west (Wilton), one to the south<br />
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(Douglas Court and Village) and one to the east (Mahon Point). These centres are<br />
characterised by medium or large foodstore anchors, together with a range of<br />
comparison shopping. Some of the centres contain a wide range of good quality<br />
comparison shopping, similar to a town centre.<br />
6.31 However from a transport infrastructure and use mix point of view they are typical of<br />
purpose-built out-of-town retail development with substantial ground level free car<br />
parking and do not perform the same as, for example, fully functioning town centres will<br />
high quality public transport accessibility and a wide mix of land uses. It is the<br />
<strong>Council</strong>s’ intention, however, that these District Centres should become urban centres<br />
rather than remain as out-of-town malls. It is recommended that the <strong>Council</strong>s include<br />
policies in Development Plans/Local Area Plans for these centres to guide the form of<br />
future development so that they evolve into fully functioning mixed-use, higher density,<br />
urban centres, with greatly enhanced public transport access and parking demand<br />
management. The allocation of significant additional retailing space to these centres<br />
will be contingent on the delivery of such upgraded urban centres where considered<br />
appropriate by the planning authorities.<br />
6.32 In order to secure that the next phase of <strong>City</strong> centre development is progressed within<br />
the four nucleus zones set out in the <strong>City</strong> Centre Retail Strategy and Action Plan and,<br />
development schemes are progressed in the Metropolitan Towns, there will need to be<br />
careful monitoring of the amount of retail floorspace which is permitted in the Suburban<br />
District Centres.<br />
6.33 Clearly the potential of each District Centre is not uniform and it will be the role of the<br />
Development Plans/Local Area Plans to identify an appropriate share for each centre<br />
in the light of local circumstances. Factors in determining this would include:<br />
• Progress towards achievement of the characteristics of a mixed use urban centre<br />
• Respective population growth within their local catchment areas as well as deficits<br />
in provision for the existing population<br />
• Strategies to deal with transportation and access issues<br />
• Physical capacity of the centre to accommodate development<br />
6.34 The additional comparison space for the suburbs needs to be allocated to ensure a<br />
reasonably even distribution of such space in the city suburbs, convenient to where<br />
people live. It is intended that such space be distributed 40%/ 60% northside /<br />
southside respectively, to help redress current imbalance in provision. Mahon is by far<br />
the largest centre at 14,000 sq m of comparison space and it should remain generally<br />
at this level over the lifetime of this study, with no significant expansion envisaged.<br />
(Limited expansion of up to 10% could be considered for urban design reasons.) It is<br />
considered that no other suburban centre should exceed the level of Mahon. It is<br />
considered appropriate to direct the bulk of the additional southside share of the new<br />
floorspace to the other District Centres in the south and south-west, with a small<br />
amount to neighbourhood centres. On the northside there is scope for consolidation of<br />
the existing district centre in Blackpool as well as for additional provision in the northwest<br />
and north-east of the city in order to deliver a more equitable distribution of space.<br />
This could be achieved by upgrading of existing neighbourhood centres to district<br />
centres or if this is not feasible, development of new district centres.<br />
6.35 The 12,000 net square metres of convenience space (the average between the high<br />
and lower density models outlined in Table 6.2) should be distributed according to<br />
current and future population levels and expenditure patterns, taking into account the<br />
objective of redressing the northside/ southside imbalance.<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> Suburbs – Neighbourhood Centres<br />
6.36 Neighbourhood centres serve more localized catchments in urban areas. The<br />
neighbourhood concept is based on the principle that people should be able to supply<br />
many of their requirements for daily living within easy reach of their homes, preferably<br />
within walking distance. The concept is central to the principles of sustainable<br />
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development. It involves the provision of educational, commercial, recreational and<br />
retail facilities in conjunction with the provision of housing.<br />
6.37 Neighbourhood centres have a greater emphasis on food and convenience goods but<br />
also usually include a limited range of comparison shops, service outlets, and possibly<br />
retail offices/services (e.g. banks) to serve a local need.<br />
6.38 The development plan should include a policy to presume against the loss of existing<br />
retail units in neighbourhood centres.<br />
6.39 Where an area is planned for significant additional population growth it will be<br />
necessary to consider the need for expanding existing neighbourhood centres or<br />
providing purpose built new ones.<br />
Outer Metropolitan<br />
6.40 Of the Metropolitan towns, Midleton, Blarney, Ballincollig and Carrigaline should be<br />
expanded. Midleton and Blarney are located on the suburban rail project and so are<br />
focal points for new higher density housing and employment development. Therefore,<br />
there will need to be further retail development in these towns to provide for the needs<br />
of new residents and workers. Midelton has a specific role in serving a wider<br />
catchment area and there are ambitious projects being considered in and around the<br />
central area that should be promoted. In Blarney, a town extension is planned.<br />
Ballincollig and Carrigaline are large towns which have expanded significantly in recent<br />
years and there are further central opportunities in both.<br />
6.41 Near to Blarney will be the planned new settlement of Monard. New retail development<br />
should be provided here of a scale appropriate to the population; most probably a large<br />
neighbourhood centre unless the scale of development would bring forward more than<br />
5,000 dwellings.<br />
6.42 Carrigtwohill is located on the suburban rail corridor and is already a focus for retail<br />
warehousing. New “town centre” retailing will also be required when the planned large<br />
housing and employment developments go ahead, to cater for the expanded<br />
population.<br />
6.43 Cobh is a tourist town but with a tightly constrained town centre that can accommodate<br />
an additional element of comparison retail aimed at tourism. Passage West is a long<br />
established small centre that has had no significant retail development in recent years.<br />
The old dockyards present a potential redevelopment area. Glanmire has a suburban<br />
neighbourhood centre that can be expanded incrementally, although no major<br />
expansion is envisaged in CASP.<br />
Ring towns<br />
6.44 Mallow is one of the largest retail centres in the County. It has been designated as a<br />
hub in the NSS and has sub-regional significance as an urban centre. Some further<br />
retail expansion would be appropriate to reflect its increasing importance. Retail<br />
development should provide large floorplates to attract more premium occupiers.<br />
6.45 There has been significant retail development taking place in Mallow and it is<br />
anticipated that this will continue. Mallow is an attractive town for retailers and there<br />
are now more retailers that were not previously represented. A Special Local Area<br />
Plan has been produced which identifies opportunity sites for growth.<br />
6.46 Youghal and Macroom serve well defined catchments. These towns should improve<br />
their town centre retail function by increasing the range and quantum of retail<br />
floorspace. There are opportunities in both towns to provide new comparison and retail<br />
warehouse development<br />
6.47 In Fermoy and Bandon there are also some opportunities for new retail development.<br />
Both towns are in need of regeneration to make them more attractive shopping<br />
destinations.<br />
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6.48 Kinsale is a tourist town and serves a limited catchment. There are several<br />
comparison and convenience developments already committed and these are likely to<br />
meet requirements in the town.<br />
County Towns<br />
6.49 Future needs should be allocated to reflect the strategic regional urban hierarchy and<br />
population targets. The allocations for retail floorspace should be town catchment<br />
specific to reflect proposed urbanisation. Peripheral towns needs more self sufficiency<br />
to serve their own catchments.<br />
6.50 The NSS provides for increased urbanisation of the population and achievement of<br />
critical mass in large multi faceted town centres. It is proposed that the retail hierarchy<br />
shall reflect the dynamics of the urban structure resulting from strategy and urban<br />
growth. In this context <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> is at the top of the hierarchy as the regional centre for<br />
the south of the Country.<br />
6.51 There are a number of relatively self sufficient towns in North and West <strong>Cork</strong>. They are<br />
located away from the influence of <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> and its metropolitan area. They have well<br />
defined catchments and are centres for convenience and comparison retail<br />
development serving extensive rural areas and smaller towns. In the retail hierarchy<br />
the County Towns of Charleville, Mitchelstown, Skibbereen, Kanturk and Clonakility<br />
have been designated with the role of expansion towns, which require headroom for<br />
expansion if they are to continue to cater for the needs of their catchment area.<br />
6.52 These are towns that can accommodate more growth than would be expected for such<br />
a centre in rural County <strong>Cork</strong>, but without growth, could suffer from severe leakage to<br />
other towns outside the county. Although these towns will experience lower population<br />
growth than other areas of the County they should be the principal locations for both<br />
convenience and comparison retail development in the rural areas of the County.<br />
6.53 Clonakilty and Skibereen are towns that need expanded retail capacity to overcome<br />
potential isolation from higher order markets and a tendency to leakage to competitive<br />
centres outside the County. Bantry and Kanturk are a small urban centres serving a<br />
large rural hinterland, that require the provision of adequate retail facilities. There is<br />
potential for expansion of retail facilities in both towns. Bantry specialises in marine<br />
related industry and services and tourism functions, with an attractive setting and town<br />
centre. There is potential for small scale redevelopment opportunities in the attractive<br />
town centre, subject to land assembly.<br />
6.54 Millstreet, Newmarket, Dunmanway, Castletownbere and Schull are small towns that<br />
will continue to operate as local service centres, with small scale redevelopment and<br />
public realm improvements where appropriate.<br />
Rural Retailing<br />
6.55 Outside the network of centres, local service centres in rural areas are an essential<br />
part of the rural life and a focus for community activity and contact in a dispersed<br />
settlement pattern. Wherever possible, where there is interest in providing small scale<br />
retail provision in a rural settlement, this should be encouraged.<br />
Phasing<br />
6.56 Experience over the last 15 years shows that it takes more time to plan and implement<br />
<strong>City</strong> centre retail development than suburban development or extensions to suburban<br />
district centres. Consequently, whilst we show scope for additional suburban retail<br />
development, recognising much of the additional development is likely to take place as<br />
extensions to existing centres which would help create more recognisably fully<br />
functioning urban centres, it is necessary to consider the implications of these<br />
extensions coming forward prior to the next phase of <strong>City</strong> centre development.<br />
6.57 There is a potential scenario in which the suburban expansions might be implemented<br />
in the relative short term, prior to any <strong>City</strong> centre development and then there might be<br />
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pressure to allow more suburban development than we have indicated might be<br />
appropriate, because the <strong>City</strong> centre projects were delayed and could not meet market<br />
demand. This, after all, was the original planning justification for Mahon Point.<br />
6.58 Current commitments and proposals in the core retail area of the city are likely to be<br />
implemented within the next few years. After that there could be a lead-in time of up to<br />
five years whilst the next phase of <strong>City</strong> centre retail developments are brought forward.<br />
In order to ensure that the Suburban District centres do not expand further at the<br />
expense of the city centre we advise that the guideline floorspace targets for the<br />
District centres are not exceeded under any circumstances without a full review of the<br />
retail strategy set out in this report.<br />
6.59 The transport implications of new suburban development will need to be considered<br />
and will be a factor in the phasing of such new development. As well as individual<br />
impacts the overall transport impacts will need to be considered.<br />
6.60 Further significant expansion or redevelopment of the District Centres should be<br />
supported by a detailed traffic and transport assessment based on a substantive traffic<br />
modelling exercise. Traffic and Transport Assessments should contain proposals for<br />
improvements to the current road network, public transport, pedestrian and cycle<br />
facilities and demand management measures, to help deliver sustainable development<br />
throughout the network of district centres.<br />
6.61 A combination of public and private funding will be required to implement transport<br />
solutions and mitigation measures for traffic impact.<br />
6.62 In conclusion, retail development, in particular in the suburban District Centres, will<br />
need to include comprehensive transport solutions for each centre and an agreed and<br />
funded implementation plan in line with the provisions of the relevant Development<br />
Plans/Local area Plans.<br />
Specialist Retail Formats<br />
Retail Warehousing<br />
6.63 Currently we estimate that there is some 89,000 square metres (gross) of retail<br />
warehousing in both new, purpose-built premises and first generation converted space.<br />
Some three quarters is in the suburban centres and the outer metropolitan area. There<br />
are outstanding commitments for an additional 26,415 square metres, the largest<br />
scheme being Eastgate on Little Island.<br />
6.64 <strong>Cork</strong> was late in attracting market investment in retail warehousing but caught up<br />
rapidly by 2007. At the present time this sector of retail activity achieves a 13% market<br />
share. It would be appropriate to plan for up to a 15% share.<br />
6.65 There are market indications that this recent surge in development may have served to<br />
enable <strong>Cork</strong> to catch up with the backlog of unmet demand. However, there will still be<br />
a continuing demand for retail warehouse provision, especially in response to a rapidly<br />
growing population and major urban developments.<br />
6.66 By 2020 an additional 93,440 square metres or so might represent a reasonable<br />
planning guideline for additional development. It should be noted that this is a net<br />
sales figure. The equivalent gross floorspace total would amount to some 104,000<br />
square metres (rounded), assuming a net to gross floorspace ratio of 90%.<br />
6.67 Over the last five years the focus of investment interest has been the suburbs of <strong>Cork</strong><br />
and the inner fringe of the OMA. We envisage that the market in time will wish to bring<br />
forward sites serving the greatest growth in population in both the short and medium<br />
term and move away from the currently well-supplied suburban market. Reflecting the<br />
projected location of new development we recommend the following distribution of<br />
future retail warehouse floorspace (in terms of gross floorspace):<br />
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• Suburbs : 20% - 21,000m 2<br />
• OMA : 50% - 52,000m 2<br />
• Rest of County : 30% - 31,000m 2<br />
6.68 Development of retail warehousing will need to be carefully monitored over time and<br />
this distribution re-consider in the light of development trends and market<br />
expectations.<br />
Showrooms<br />
6.69 Motor showrooms are self explanatory, relating to the display and sale of motor cars,<br />
and commercial, agricultural and marine vehicles such as power boats. Other<br />
showrooms are defined as a building uses for the display of goods. Examples of<br />
showrooms included spaces exhibiting high tech / electronic appliances; building<br />
materials; art pieces/paintings; heavy duty copiers / printers; musical instruments;<br />
sports equipment etc.<br />
6.70 In the same way that Retail Parks are defined as planned groupings of retail<br />
warehouses, different types of showroom formats can be accommodated in locations<br />
designated in development plans. Such developments may be located in areas<br />
designated for retail park development and in parts of industrial areas that have a high<br />
profile along main corridors. Motor showrooms can also be ancillary and<br />
complementary to retail park development and be designated in locations that have a<br />
high profile along main corridors within town environs as dedicated motor showroom<br />
parks.<br />
6.71 Trade parks refer to those outlets predominantly frequented by professional trade<br />
persons, e.g. relating to residential and commercial construction completion,<br />
particularly referring to interiors such as kitchens, bathrooms, office and other<br />
installations. They are predominantly trade centres offering discounts to professionals<br />
but not to individual customers. They do not include outlets normally accommodated in<br />
town centres or in retail parks and specifically exclude toy and other outlets where<br />
retail is predominantly to the individual customer. Trade parks and can be ancillary to<br />
and complementary to retail park development.<br />
6.72 Where designated in development plans, planning applications for a trade park should<br />
be required to indicate planned layouts, with associated car parking, access and<br />
landscaping. Planning permission should include conditions restricting retail in trade<br />
parks primarily to professional trades.<br />
Internet Shopping<br />
6.73 This has had minimal effective penetration as yet. It is anticipated that there may be<br />
marginal penetration in the comparison/bulky goods sector in the future. Internet<br />
retailing will not replace to any extent convenience or supermarket retailing, as orders<br />
are filled from the local supermarket rather than dedicated distribution warehouses.<br />
Policies should not be based on an anticipation of significant internet penetration in the<br />
convenience goods area. Our expenditure projections for comparison goods take<br />
account of a predicted shift in spending to e-tailing.<br />
Factory Outlet Centres<br />
6.74 These are not a significant part of the existing retail provision in County <strong>Cork</strong>. This is a<br />
niche format which could be accommodated in special circumstances in or close to<br />
towns that have an established tourism function, where they can strengthen the town<br />
and create commercial linkages. In order to benefit towns and avoid adverse impact, it<br />
is essential that they be located in or close to town centres and with excellent public<br />
transport links, as indicated in the Retail Planning Guidelines.<br />
Petrol Station Shops<br />
6.75 The preferred location for petrol filling stations is often designated in development<br />
plans as being on the edge of a town or village and close to the speed limit. The policy<br />
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should specify that the normally accepted upper limit on the convenience element is<br />
100 m2 net floor area. Policy should specify that this scale of provision will not always<br />
be accommodated, particularly in smaller villages, where such provision of<br />
convenience floorspace out of centre would cause significant trade diversion from<br />
existing village centres.<br />
Discount Format Retailing<br />
6.76 Discount stores have been successfully accommodated in a number of towns<br />
throughout County <strong>Cork</strong> and provide a scale and form of development which can be<br />
physically accommodated within or on the edge of town / district centres or<br />
neighbourhood centres.<br />
6.77 Discount stores offer a limited range of products located in stores with an average size<br />
of 1,300sqm. They offer a core range of goods which are stored on display and the<br />
net/gross ratio is high.<br />
6.78 In Ireland there is currently one discounter store per 45,025 inhabitants. In Germany<br />
where Hard Discounters account for 30% of market share, there is one discount<br />
operator per 9,560 persons. The representation of discount stores in <strong>Cork</strong> is one of the<br />
lowest of any county in Ireland, so it is likely there will be further pressure to<br />
accommodate additional discount stores, to increase market share penetration closer<br />
to the shares in continental Europe.<br />
6.79 The development of new discount foodstores can improve the range of convenience<br />
shopping in centres and therefore meet qualitative need. However, discount retailers<br />
do compete with conventional supermarkets and should be treated similarly i.e. they<br />
should be located in or on the edge of town, district or neighbourhood centres where<br />
possible. Their typical size, 1,300sqm net, means that they are often appropriate<br />
anchors for neighbourhood centres alongside other shops.<br />
Criteria for Development Control<br />
General criteria<br />
Sequential approach<br />
6.80 In accordance with the Retail Planning Guidelines (2005), planning authorities should<br />
adopt the sequential approach towards new retail development. The preferred<br />
location should be within a town or district centre (as defined in the development plan).<br />
Where it is not possible to provide the form and scale of development required then<br />
consideration should be given to edge of centre sites. An edge of centre site is<br />
commonly defined as one which is within an easy and convenient walking distance<br />
from the primary shopping area of a town centre. The distance considered to be<br />
convenient will vary according to local circumstances but typically is 300-400 metres.<br />
6.81 Out of centre sites should only be considered where it can be demonstrated that there<br />
are no town centre or edge of centre sites that are suitable, viable and available.<br />
Retailers should be prepared to make reasonable compromises and adapt their<br />
standard development formats to the <strong>Council</strong>’s preferred sites.<br />
6.82 There are many opportunities for the re-development of vacant and derelict sites in the<br />
centres and much of the new retail development should take place on such sites rather<br />
than at edge or out of centre greenfield locations. In some centres, new retail<br />
development should take place as part of planned urban extensions.<br />
Impact on vitality & viability<br />
6.83 Again in line with the Retail Planning Guidelines, applicants for new retail development<br />
which the <strong>Council</strong>s consider to be large scale in relation to existing centres should<br />
demonstrate that there will not be a material adverse impact on the vitality and viability<br />
of any existing town centre. Applicants should submit evidence showing that the<br />
development:<br />
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• Would support the long term strategy for town centres as established in the<br />
development plan<br />
• Would not cause an adverse impact on one or more town centres, singly or<br />
cumulatively with other developments or planning Permissions, sufficient to<br />
undermine the quality of the centre or its role<br />
• Would not diminish the range of activities and services that a town centre can<br />
support<br />
• Would not cause an increase in the number of vacant properties in the primary<br />
retail area<br />
6.84 Additional guidance on retail impact assessments is set out in Appendix 5. The policy<br />
should not seek to prevent competition or to sustain an unsatisfactory status quo. New<br />
retail proposals are most advantageous to towns when they are complementary to the<br />
existing provision, resolve existing identified deficiencies and where they develop<br />
linkages and synergy with the town centre.<br />
6.85 The same sales densities as supermarkets do not apply to discount stores and this<br />
should be taken into consideration during assessment.<br />
Accessibility<br />
6.86 New developments should be accessible by a variety of transport modes to encourage<br />
people to travel to them by modes other than the private car – thereby cutting down<br />
congestion, energy use and pollution.<br />
6.87 New development should demonstrate direct and attractive pedestrian links with the<br />
existing central area, public transport nodes and car parking locations.<br />
6.88 The quantum of parking to be provided with any new retail proposal should be<br />
balanced between the existing provision of parking and the needs of shoppers to gain<br />
convenient access to the new development by car.<br />
6.89 Appropriate servicing arrangements should be provided, which do not detract from the<br />
environmental quality of town centres or cause additional congestion.<br />
6.90 Most of the Metropolitan, Ring and County Towns will have Traffic Management Plans<br />
in the future and these will need to be linked to the retail strategy and the location of<br />
new retail development and expansion of the town centres.<br />
Criteria for Retail Warehousing Applications<br />
Location<br />
6.91 Retail Parks should be sited in accessible locations. The retail market would tend to<br />
support such an objective in any event. The four key planning criteria that should be<br />
satisfied are as follows:<br />
• The Retail Park locations should currently be served by a public transport service<br />
or should include proposals for providing an effective linkage with public transport<br />
in the future.<br />
• The traffic generated by a Retail Park either singly or cumulatively with other recent<br />
or proposed development should not cause an unacceptable adverse highways<br />
impact.<br />
• If a Retail Park is not sited on the edge of a town or district centre it should be<br />
demonstrated that it is possible to provide effective links between the Retail Park<br />
and a nearby town or district centre in order to encourage some commercial<br />
synergy.<br />
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• Retail parks should not be located at, or near, junctions on the national road<br />
network.<br />
6.92 From a demand perspective the focus for additional retail warehouse development is<br />
within the outer edge of <strong>Cork</strong>’s suburbs and nearby in the Metropolitan Area. There is<br />
a demand for provision adjacent to some of the Ring towns and larger rural towns but<br />
the scale of operator requirements is not so great.<br />
6.93 It is important to achieve a balanced distribution of provision geographically. Retailers<br />
normally wish to locate in areas where there is spare capacity within a catchment area<br />
so, all other things being equal, the market in time will tend to bring forward proposals<br />
where currently there is a gap in provision.<br />
6.94 In paragraph 6.67 we have set out a guideline distribution of new retail warehouse<br />
floorspace which seeks to locate development where it is needed and in areas where<br />
the market is likely to respond. At the development control stage it is necessary to<br />
respond flexibly to market demand as it arises within these broad floorspace<br />
guidelines. Where a potential imbalance is likely to arise this is likely to result in<br />
unacceptable overloading of the highways network, especially at peak periods.<br />
Consequently, the transportation implications of Retail Parks will be an important<br />
planning consideration.<br />
6.95 The other key aspect of location is the sequential approach set out in the Retail<br />
Planning Guidelines. This policy issue is the strongest and most important<br />
development control criterion. Retail warehouses should be sited where they are<br />
accessible by more than simply car borne traffic, if possible, and should complement<br />
town centres. Stand alone out-of-town locations are not so well related to a town<br />
centre or the local residential neighbourhood and do not satisfy the sequential test.<br />
Furthermore, Retail Parks in Ireland tend to be more successful where they have an<br />
anchor attraction and can attract weekly trade, rather than mainly weekends. Retail<br />
Parks as part of District Centres or adjacent to them perform well. There is the<br />
potential to plan for such provision as part of new community development.<br />
Consequently, locations which are close to existing or new town or district centres and<br />
which can provide good links with a nearby centres are to be preferred. This principle<br />
should be followed.<br />
6.96 Subject to consideration of the range of goods to be sold, which we deal with next, the<br />
development of Retail Parks within the size caps set out in the Retail Planning<br />
Guidelines is unlikely to have an adverse impact on town centres. Where a number of<br />
Retail Parks are proposed in close proximity to a town centre within a short period of<br />
time then it will be necessary to consider the cumulative impact of more than one retail<br />
park on a nearby town centre, especially if the aggregated scale of retail warehouse<br />
development has the potential to match or exceed the total size of the town centre.<br />
However, it would be surprising if there was realistic market support for a scenario in<br />
which two or three full sized Retail Parks could be developed or let adjacent to a<br />
relatively small town centre, unless there were exceptional reasons to justify the size of<br />
catchment area that would be required.<br />
Types of good sold<br />
6.97 What will be an important planning issue in dealing with planning applications for retail<br />
warehousing, and which bears on the scale of development and impact, is the extent to<br />
which Retail Parks in <strong>Cork</strong> are restricted to bulky goods. In our 2004 report for the two<br />
<strong>Council</strong>s we concluded that that there was a case to allow the sale of computers, toys<br />
and sports goods from Retail Parks subject to conditions.<br />
6.98 In relation to the sale of computers it is evident that much of the sale of hardware<br />
(mainly computers) to businesses and on-line customers is via a dedicated supplier<br />
direct from a factory or warehouse. Stores in town centres tend to specialise in the<br />
sale of software rather than hardware and the sale of computers from some stores in<br />
Retail Parks is unlikely to adversely affect town centres.<br />
Roger Tym & Partners with Simon Clear & Associates<br />
March 2008 53
<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
6.99 From our knowledge of the evolution of toy retailers in Ireland the Retail Park format<br />
has been the catalyst for the development of this trade and a key factor in the<br />
development of competition. Prior to the emergence of the retail park format, toy<br />
retailing in the Republic as a stand alone retail trade had virtually disappeared, except<br />
for handful of very small specialist hobby focused “momma and poppa” style stores<br />
and a very few 50-175 square metre toy stores and seasonal offerings by leading<br />
supermarket and department store groups. Thus the emergence of toy retailers in<br />
Retail Parks is largely a “new” form of retailing which is not displacing activity from<br />
town centres. However, this is not to say that there should be unrestricted promotion<br />
of toys sales in Retail Parks. In the <strong>Cork</strong> context we recommend that the size of store<br />
be limited to a maximum of 2,000 square metres gross and that only one store should<br />
be allowed in a Retail Park. Toy stores should not be permitted in developments of<br />
less than 10,000 square metres (gross). This will allow current market requirements to<br />
be met without encouraging an excessive scale of provision.<br />
6.100 In relation to sports goods we recognise that of the goods sold from these stores, much<br />
of the merchandise is not in the nature of “bulky goods” and could just as equally be<br />
sold in a downtown or high street location. Therefore, significant restrictions should<br />
apply to this use in retail parks, but which allow the sale of certain types of sports<br />
requiring the type of retail space available in Retail Parks, in order to be viable, i.e.<br />
golf, sailing, adventure sports etc.<br />
6.101 We therefore recommend that sports goods outlets should only be permitted in Retail<br />
Parks where the predominant sales are those of (non apparel) sports equipment and<br />
subject to restrictions. Firstly, that no more than 15% of the floor or wall space of any<br />
such store can be devoted to the sale of general sports apparel (including footwear).<br />
“General sports apparel” shall exclude specialist apparel or footwear which is specific<br />
to the primary sports theme to which the store is devoted. Secondly, that no outlet<br />
shall be permitted in excess of 2,000 square metres gross. Thirdly, sports good stores<br />
should not be permitted in developments of less than 10,000 square metres (gross).<br />
6.102 Finally, in order to ensure that Retail Parks incorporate a high proportion of traditional<br />
bulky goods such as DIY, furniture, carpets and so on it is appropriate to limit the<br />
proportion of total space within a Retail Park which is devoted to the sale of computers,<br />
toys and sports goods. Taking account of evidence elsewhere and the requirements of<br />
the market we recommend that no more than 3,500 square metres gross, or 20 per<br />
cent of the total size of a Retail Park if a Retail Park is less than 15,000 square metres<br />
gross in size, be devoted to the sale of computers, toys or sports goods.<br />
6.103 The intention of these size caps for <strong>Cork</strong> is that for a full scale Retail Guidelines Retail<br />
Park of 15,000 square metres gross, then a maximum of 3,500 square metres gross<br />
should be devoted to computers, toys and sports goods. In addition, within this overall<br />
size cap no toys or sports good store should exceed 2,000 square metres. Clearly it<br />
would not be possible to satisfy the overall size cap if two stores of 2,000 square<br />
metres each are proposed.<br />
6.104 For smaller Retail Parks of less than 15,000 square metres the maximum size cap will<br />
be dictated by the 20 per cent limit – i.e if a Retail Park of 12,000 square metres gross<br />
is proposed than the maximum allowable quantum of floorspace for computers, toys<br />
and sports goods will be 2,400 square metres gross. For Retail Parks less than 10,000<br />
square metres toys and sports goods stores should not be allowed.<br />
Town Centre Management<br />
6.105 Town Centre Management is necessary to develop towns that are attractive to shop,<br />
live, work and spend leisure time in. It is important to maximize the various town centre<br />
uses in a safe, accessible and effective way, it sets out clear objectives and achievable<br />
action for town improvement through a partnership of key stakeholders, sharing<br />
aspirations, expertise and resources to create a holistic plan to meet local needs and<br />
strengthen regional interests.<br />
Roger Tym & Partners with Simon Clear & Associates<br />
March 2008 54
<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
6.106 In the thriving towns in <strong>Cork</strong> it is evident that success breeds success, with retail as a<br />
catalyst for redevelopment and that proactive partnership strengthens the town,<br />
building the sense of commitment and ownership that attracts both users and<br />
investors. Thus:<br />
• Retailers benefit from increased footfall and turnover.<br />
• Shoppers enjoy a pleasant, safe and easily accessible environment with a wide<br />
choice of shops and facilities.<br />
• Visitors are attracted by places of interest and entertainment events.<br />
• Property owners experience a rise in rent and property values.<br />
• Local authorities benefit from town centres that are vibrant, viable and meeting the<br />
needs of the community.<br />
6.107 Successful town centre management is often more easily achieved in the small town<br />
context, as the issues are clearer and the will to succeed stronger.<br />
Traffic Management<br />
6.108 Traffic Management Policies should be a set of principles and criteria designed to<br />
ensure a high standard of access by public transport, cycle, foot and private car so that<br />
retail proposals can be easily accessible by all modes of transport and all sections of<br />
society. An important consideration is to achieve improvements to the quality of the<br />
public realm in town centres so that having accessed a retail destination shoppers can<br />
circulate easily and safely on foot in an attractive pedestrian environment.<br />
6.109 Parking spaces both for cars and cycles are a valuable asset to the retail health of the<br />
town and their use and management should be planned accordingly. The use of<br />
spaces on street can be managed by the implementation of Controlled Parking Zones.<br />
Where demand for parking is high, time limits and charging policies encourage<br />
maximum availability to shoppers and maximum turnover of spaces. Proper<br />
management and enforcement of parking regulations is essential.<br />
6.110 The quantum of parking to be provided with any new retail development should take<br />
account of existing parking provision in the town. The <strong>Council</strong>s could consider setting<br />
different parking requirements for town centres and other locations, alongside a<br />
threshold below which parking requirements do not apply.<br />
Monitoring and Review<br />
Floorspace<br />
6.111 The successful implementation of the proposed retail strategy and the continuing<br />
evolution of successful retail centres in the <strong>City</strong> and the County depends critically on<br />
active monitoring and management of the indicative floorspace guidelines at the<br />
development control stage.<br />
6.112 A system should be put in place by the <strong>City</strong> and County <strong>Council</strong>s to ensure that all<br />
development is monitored on a comprehensive basis. This has not happened so far.<br />
This will enable the floorspace requirements, particularly for convenience floorspace,<br />
to be adjusted if necessary.<br />
6.113 Alongside this study, we have provided the <strong>Council</strong> with a GIS database which records<br />
the current uses of each unit in each of the centres. This can be utilized for forward<br />
planning and in the preparation of Local Area Plans and Special Local Area Plans.<br />
6.114 The data has been captured in MapInfo by linking digitised building footprints from OSi<br />
mapping to surveyed tabular data by way of a unique common identifier. The building<br />
outlines are gross floor space. Where floor space has not been surveyed, it has been<br />
imputed automatically within the GIS by calculating the area of the building outline and<br />
multiplying by 0.65 in order to get a realistic net floor space figure.<br />
Roger Tym & Partners with Simon Clear & Associates<br />
March 2008 55
<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
6.115 As MapInfo is OGC compliant software using the .tab format, the data can be easily<br />
transferred into packages such as ArcGIS. Data can also be exported into formats<br />
such as Excel for analysis.<br />
6.116 The GIS database unlocks potential to the council for easily running location-based<br />
analysis. For example analysis such as calculating the amount of convenience floor<br />
space within 10 minutes accessibility to a new residential development etc.<br />
6.117 Monitoring should involve:<br />
• Entering permissions onto the database alongside the relevant retail unit<br />
• Undertaking site visits to check what size and type of outlet is built<br />
• Capturing a new building boundary within the GIS and updating the attribute table<br />
with as much or as little information as is available. The ‘date’ field can be used to<br />
assess the currency of the data<br />
• Additional attribute data can be added as seen fit by simply adding additional<br />
columns to the database. These columns can be populated using spatial joins to<br />
bring in additional spatial data that the county holds for example each unit could be<br />
assigned a policy number from LAP’s by simple overlaying LAP data.<br />
• Once monitoring is complete – reports can be generated within the GIS<br />
supplemented with mapping that can then be used as the basis for following<br />
rounds of monitoring.<br />
6.118 The County <strong>Council</strong> will need to liaise with the Town <strong>Council</strong>s to ensure that the<br />
database includes full details of all the planning permissions in the County.<br />
6.119 As stated earlier, it will be necessary when monitoring the potential for new<br />
convenience goods development (either in pre-application discussions or when<br />
deciding on planning applications) to distinguish between the type of retail operator,<br />
since sales densities vary widely. For example, we have shown at Table 6.2 how the<br />
floorspace needs in the County could vary between some 22,000sqm of high order<br />
superstores (say 7 new stores) to 42,000 sqm of medium sized supermarkets or<br />
discount stores (say 25 new stores). This is all based on an estimated need for €232<br />
million of additional turnover. The type of retail operator makes a big difference and<br />
monitoring should explore these subtleties.<br />
6.120 Most applications for planning permission provide floorspace proposals in terms of<br />
gross floor area – i.e the net lettable area that is leased to retailers. All estimates of<br />
turnover and sales density relate to the net sales area of a store excluding the area<br />
used for storage, offices, toilets etc. For monitoring purposes we advise the following<br />
typical net : gross ratios:<br />
• Large convenience goods foodstores : 65%<br />
• Discount foodstores : 70%<br />
• Purpose-built, modern comparison shops : 80%<br />
• Department stores : 65 -70%<br />
• Retail warehouses : 85 -90%<br />
Population and Economic Growth<br />
6.121 There is a direct link between population and economic growth. A major slowdown in<br />
the economy over a prolonged period will reduce the level of in-migration. A slowdown<br />
in the economy will also tend to reduce the growth of consumer expenditure. This<br />
could result either from a decline in output or a tightening in the availability of credit. A<br />
small reduction in the rate of growth of consumer spending on comparison goods, of<br />
say 1% p.a., when compounded over 5-10 years could result in a significant reduction<br />
in the quantum of floorspace required.<br />
Roger Tym & Partners with Simon Clear & Associates<br />
March 2008 56
<strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
6.122 This demand side of projection of floorspace should be monitored at regular intervals<br />
of about a year and if it is evident that there has been a prolonged slowdown in<br />
expenditure then a review of the strategy by 2012 will be warranted.<br />
Roger Tym & Partners with Simon Clear & Associates<br />
March 2008 57
APPENDIX 1<br />
Population Projections for Retail Zones
Appendix 1 : Population projections for retail zones<br />
1. Introduction<br />
This appendix sets out the methodology used in the projection of population to specified<br />
years between 2002 and 2020, for defined retail zones in the <strong>City</strong> and County of <strong>Cork</strong>.<br />
The methodology is based on a top-down allocation of target population growth for the<br />
South West Region, as set out in directions to Regional and Local Authorities from the<br />
DEHLG.<br />
In overview, the steps in the projection process are as follows:<br />
1. Planned regional population growth is allocated to the Counties of <strong>Cork</strong> and Kerry<br />
and the <strong>City</strong> of <strong>Cork</strong>, in accordance with criteria set out in section 2 below and agreed<br />
with the SWRA;<br />
2. Population growth within the functional area of <strong>Cork</strong> County is divided between the<br />
Metropolitan Area, Mallow Hub, remainder of the CASP Area and the remainder of<br />
the County, in accordance with criteria set out in section 3 below;<br />
3. Population growth in the defined retail zones (see main report for map) is calculated<br />
by:<br />
• Assuming that the population growth rate in a particular Electoral Division within<br />
any given retail zone will accord with growth rates defined for the CASP zone<br />
within which the ED lies (for those lying in the CASP area) or the growth rate for<br />
the remainder of the County (for those lying outside the CASP area);<br />
• Adding the resultant projected populations of all EDs in the given retail zone to<br />
obtain a total for the said retail zone.<br />
2. Allocate regional targets to Counties within the Region<br />
Approach used<br />
The overall approach that has been used to obtain results at county level, is as follows:<br />
1. The growth potential of County Kerry is assessed, within the context of the overall<br />
regional target, bearing in mind previous performance in terms of relative growth<br />
rates and the provisions of the 2006 Tralee/Killarney Hub Settlement Local Area Plan<br />
1 ;<br />
2. The capacity of the <strong>City</strong> of <strong>Cork</strong> to absorb additional population is assessed, based<br />
on the known amount of developable land using suitable development densities, and<br />
the projected fall in the occupancy of existing households;<br />
3. The remaining population is allocated to County <strong>Cork</strong>.<br />
County Kerry<br />
Details of the derivation of the Kerry population projection are contained in a paper<br />
submitted to the South West Regional Authority. 2<br />
It is assumed that Kerry will take the share of the population increase that it enjoyed in<br />
the period 2002 to 2006. This was 18.1 per cent and would result, based on the change<br />
projected for the period 2002 to 2020, in a population of 176,000 in 2020,<br />
There is an on-going policy commitment to the development of Gateways and hubs, and<br />
the predominance of <strong>Cork</strong> in the share of these is great. <strong>Cork</strong> had 88 per cent of the<br />
1 Tralee/Killarney Hub Settlements Local Area Plan Planning Policy Unit, Kerry County <strong>Council</strong>,<br />
December 2006<br />
2 Distribution of target 2020 Regional Population in the South West Region Working paper produced<br />
by Jonathan Blackwell for the South West Regional Authority – July 2007<br />
1
egion's gateway and hub populations in 2006. It is therefore unlikely that the share of<br />
Regional population enjoyed by Kerry will increase, and may well in fact decrease.<br />
However, for the purposes of planning, it is prudent to adopt a figure which covers the upside<br />
investment risk. Since in the absolute numbers involved in doing so are quite small,<br />
the impact in planning terms for <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> and County is likely to be modest.<br />
For this reason, the above figure of 176,000 is adopted. It suggests an annual population<br />
growth rate for the County of 1.66 per cent per annum – against the 1.35 per cent<br />
experienced in the period 2002 to 2006.<br />
<strong>City</strong> of <strong>Cork</strong><br />
The population of <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> fell from 123 thousand in 2002 to 119,000 in 2006. This does<br />
not, however, reflect the longer term potential of the <strong>City</strong> to absorb a considerable<br />
increase in the present level of population. In particular, the redevelopment of the<br />
dockland area of the <strong>City</strong> will offer the opportunity for high density development over an<br />
extensive brownfield site. When taken together with the exploitation of lands elsewhere at<br />
higher densities, <strong>City</strong> planners estimate that there is the potential to accommodate up to<br />
50,000 persons in these new developments.<br />
Against this must be set the forecast reduction in average household size of households<br />
in existing dwellings. This may reduce the population by some 20,000 over the period.<br />
Overall, therefore, the <strong>City</strong> is judged to have the capacity to increase its population to<br />
150,000 by 2020. Maximal population growth is assumed as the most sustainable<br />
development path in terms of the <strong>Cork</strong> Gateway development.<br />
County <strong>Cork</strong><br />
The remaining share of the target regional population is allocated to County <strong>Cork</strong>. In 2006<br />
the population of the County was 362,000. This will rise to 458 thousand by 2020.<br />
Summary of projections at County Level<br />
Table 1 below sets out the projections at County level. Previous projections contained<br />
within the Regional Planning Guidelines, are shown in the last column.<br />
Table 1: Proposed 2020 population shares – Local Authority areas<br />
County 2002 2006 2020 RPG 2020<br />
County Kerry 132,527 139,835 176,000 149,000-160,000<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> 123,062 119,418 150,000 136,000-142,000<br />
County <strong>Cork</strong> 324,767 361,877 458,000 385,000-398,000<br />
Region 580,356 621,130 784,000 670,000-700,000<br />
3. Allocate <strong>Cork</strong> County population to the CASP area, Mallow Hub and<br />
the remainder of the County<br />
This allocation is achieved by extracting the target for Mallow hub, assigning a growth<br />
rate for population outside of the CASP area which is broadly in line with existing trends,<br />
and then allocating the balance to the CASP area.<br />
Mallow<br />
The hub of Mallow has a population target for 2020 which remains at 20,000. The<br />
strategy in the draft plan for the town aims to ensure that a shortage of available lands<br />
does not restrict the town's potential to grow to 20,000 or beyond and potentially up to<br />
2
30,000 eventually – though not by 2020. Growth is assumed to be linear throughout the<br />
period 2006 to 2020.<br />
North and West <strong>Cork</strong> outside the CASP area<br />
The growth of these areas is expected to proceed in accordance with modified past<br />
trends. In other words, these areas will continue to enjoy a rate of growth which ensures<br />
the quality of life of residents and adequate provision of services. However, issues of<br />
sustainability as well as the thrust of the NSS with its emphasis on Gateway and Hub<br />
development suggest that these areas will not be the engine of growth for the County.<br />
It is assumed that the annual growth rate for the these areas will in aggregate, remain at<br />
the relatively high level of 1.1% per annum on average over the period. This, however, is<br />
a small reduction from the present rate of 1.3% per annum. Growth is assumed to be<br />
linear throughout the period.<br />
Remainder of the CASP area including Metropolitan <strong>Cork</strong> outside <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong><br />
This area will absorb the remaining growth potential, and may be seen as the main driver<br />
of growth in the region, in accordance with the Regional Planning Guidelines and the<br />
National Spatial Strategy.<br />
Summary of Gateway and Hub allocations<br />
Table 2 below sets out the allocations.<br />
Table 2: Proposed 2020 population shares – Gateway, Hubs and other areas<br />
Area 2002 2006 2020 2020 RPG<br />
Mallow 9,789 11,211 20,000 18,000-20,000<br />
CASP area 349,388 377,596 488,000 423,000-450,000<br />
Remainder of County 98,441 103,699 120,354<br />
4. Apply relevant population growth assumptions for each ED and sum to<br />
obtain retail zone projections<br />
Retail zones do not coincide with the strategic areas defined in previous sections. Table<br />
2 sets out the relationship:<br />
Table 3: Population of Strategic Planning Areas and Retail Zones (2006)<br />
Strategic Planning Area<br />
Final Retail<br />
Zone <strong>City</strong> Metropolita<br />
n<br />
North<br />
Remainde<br />
r of CASP<br />
West<br />
Grand<br />
Total<br />
<strong>City</strong><br />
18,182<br />
119,418<br />
137,600<br />
Far West 57,271 57,271<br />
Metropolitan 134,941<br />
North<br />
45,028<br />
Ring 1,400 105,055<br />
Grand Total<br />
119,418<br />
Source: COP, 2006<br />
153,123<br />
46,428<br />
105,055 57,271<br />
134,941<br />
45,028<br />
106,455<br />
481,295<br />
3
The following steps are required in order to obtain the retail zone projections:<br />
1. Assign relevant growth rates to each ED (or Ward) such that the rate of growth<br />
reflects the behaviour of the strategic area in which it is located;<br />
2. Divide the growth between the 2006 to 2013 period and the 2013 to 2020 period;<br />
3. Interpolate results for 2011 and 2016;<br />
4. Sum the EDs which comprise each retail zone in order to obtain a projection of the<br />
retail zone population.<br />
Procedure within the CASP Area<br />
Within the CASP area, the CASP zones defined for the CASP report are used as the<br />
basic building block for projection, as described below:<br />
a. CASP zones within County <strong>Cork</strong>: The original CASP projections for each CASP<br />
zone, as defined in the final report of the CASP study, are modified by allocating<br />
the population ‘uplift’ now projected for the County CASP area to 2020, to each<br />
zone, the weighting for this allocation being determined by the share of new<br />
households allocated to each zone in the CASP study. Projections for 2013 are<br />
obtained by adding the share of the overall total uplift for the zone in the period<br />
2006 to 2020, which applies to the earlier period (assuming the division between<br />
the two periods is directly proportional to the time allocation), to the original 2013<br />
CASP projection for that zone.<br />
b. CASP zones within <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong>: Here, the original CASP projections are modified<br />
by allocating all the ‘uplift’ assumed, to the Central zone (for 2013 and 2020). The<br />
uplift for the city is determined by the overall capacity of the <strong>City</strong> in 2020 as<br />
described in section 2 and the estimated speed of dockland redevelopment for<br />
2013, which provides a particular known constraint on development during this<br />
first phase.<br />
This procedure provides new CASP zone totals for 2013 and 2020, and EDs within each<br />
zone are assumed to grow proportionately. Only in a few cases do retail zone boundaries<br />
in CASP cut through CASP zones.<br />
Apportion 2020 population to EDs in remainder of County (and thus build up retail zones,<br />
as required)<br />
It is assumed that the average annual growth rates for this area (North and West strategic<br />
areas) projected for 2006 to 2013 and for 2013 to 2020 apply equally to sub-sets of the<br />
area. This is NOT a present trends policy but is a policy-neutral policy for the remainder<br />
of the County.<br />
5. Summary of projection results<br />
These are set out overleaf. These provide a consistent set of results for the retail strategy<br />
and the review of the County Development Plan and are also fully consistent with<br />
demographic planning at regional level. Population estimates for retail zones in the base<br />
year of the retail study (2007) were obtained by linear interpolation between 2006 and<br />
2013.<br />
4
Appendix 1 : Population projections for retail zones<br />
Table 4: Strategic Areas<br />
Area or Zone 2002 2006 2011 2013 2016 2020 2021<br />
2002-<br />
2006<br />
Annual % growth<br />
2006- 2013-<br />
2013 2020<br />
2006-<br />
2020<br />
2002-<br />
2013<br />
<strong>City</strong> 123,062 119,418 127,250 130,524 138,541 150,000 153,011 (0.75) 1.28 2.01 1.64 0.54<br />
Metropolitan 134,293 153,123 175,778 185,752 199,307 218,932 224,133 3.33 2.80 2.38 2.59 2.99<br />
North 44,286 46,428 49,005 50,076 51,674 53,885 54,452 1.19 1.09 1.05 1.07 1.12<br />
Remainder of CASP 92,033 105,055 107,643 108,696 113,025 119,068 120,628 3.36 0.49 1.31 0.90 1.52<br />
West 54,155 57,271 60,450 61,770 63,742 66,469 67,169 1.41 1.09 1.05 1.07 1.20<br />
<strong>City</strong> and County <strong>Cork</strong> 447,829 481,295 520,331 536,818 566,384 608,355 619,324 1.82 1.57 1.80 1.69 1.66<br />
CASP Total 349,388 377,596 410,670 424,972 450,873 488,000 497,772 1.96 1.70 2.00 1.85 1.80<br />
West And North Total 98,441 103,699 109,455 111,846 115,416 120,354 121,622 1.31 1.09 1.05 1.07 1.17<br />
Mallow 9,789 11,211 14,100 16,018 17,617 20,000 20,644 3.45 5.23 3.22 4.22 4.58<br />
CASP Ring excl Mallow 82,244 93,844 93,542 92,678 95,409 99,068 99,984 3.35 (0.18) 0.96 0.39 1.09<br />
County CASP Total 226,326 258,178 283,420 294,447 312,332 338,000 344,761 3.35 1.90 1.99 1.94 2.42<br />
Table 5: Retail Zones<br />
Area or Zone 2002 2006 2011 2013 2016 2020 2021<br />
2002-<br />
2006<br />
Annual % growth<br />
2006- 2013-<br />
2013 2020<br />
2006-<br />
2020<br />
2002-<br />
2013<br />
<strong>City</strong> and Douglas 139,061 137,600 146,759 150,577 157,767 167,811 170,406 (0.26) 1.30 1.56 1.43 0.73<br />
Metropolitan 118,294 134,941 156,268 165,699 180,080 201,121 206,737 3.35 2.98 2.81 2.89 3.11<br />
Ring 93,219 106,455 109,264 110,206 114,650 120,693 122,222 3.37 0.50 1.31 0.90 1.53<br />
North 43,100 45,028 47,590 48,566 50,145 52,260 52,790 1.10 1.09 1.05 1.07 1.09<br />
Far West 54,155 57,271 60,450 61,770 63,742 66,469 67,169 1.41 1.09 1.05 1.07 1.20<br />
<strong>City</strong> and County <strong>Cork</strong> 447,829 481,295 520,331 536,818 566,384 608,355 619,324 1.82 1.57 1.80 1.69 1.66<br />
5
APPENDIX 2<br />
Retail Commitments
Unimplemented planning permissions & sites under construction - summer 07<br />
* Where no net figures were available, net sqm assumed to be 80% of gross for comparison, 65% for convenience<br />
Net Sqm<br />
Convenience Comparison Retail W/hsg<br />
<strong>City</strong> 53-54 Grand Parade, 36-39 South Main St (03/27204) 3065<br />
Lavitt's Quay/Half Moon St (04/29145) 7432<br />
Dunnes, Merchant Quay 1571 -1571<br />
St. Patrick's Quay/Brian Boru St block (05/29587) 1242<br />
Guy's site, Cornmarket Street (04/27987) 13910<br />
Dunnes, 102-105 St. Patrick's St (05/30139) 157 1507<br />
An Post site, Eglinton Street (04/28877) 2286<br />
St patricks St/Emmet Place (06/30595) 11,500<br />
Total <strong>City</strong> 1728 37085 2286<br />
Mahon Point Tesco, Mahon Point (06/30970) 1182<br />
Mahon Point Retail Park (06/31231) 2750<br />
Fmr Sifco site, Mahon Industrial Estate 3074<br />
Fmr Sifco site, Mahon Industrial Estate 1498<br />
Kinsale Road<br />
Wilton<br />
none<br />
none<br />
Blackpool Blackpool Retail Park (03/27555) 2057<br />
48-52 Watercourse Road 1185<br />
Ballyvolane<br />
Bishopstown none<br />
Bishopstown Court Dunnes extension 2000<br />
Togher<br />
none<br />
Hollyhill<br />
none<br />
Douglas Court none
Douglas Village Douglas Village 1157 5538<br />
Douglas<br />
Other - <strong>City</strong> Heiton Buckley site, Tory Top Road, Ballyphenane (05/29 929<br />
Ursuline Convent Lands, Skehard Road, Ballinue (05/296 1036<br />
Mayfield Neighbourhood Centre (05/30278) 998<br />
Total suburbs 5305 10777 7322<br />
Ballincollig Former Murphys Barracks 258 5098<br />
Midleton Lidl, Waters Edge 1040<br />
Old Tesco Site 900<br />
Carrigaline Kilnagery Business Park - retail warehouse 630<br />
Main St - 2 storey retail bldg 640<br />
Blarney<br />
none<br />
Glanmire Crestfield Shopping Centre - Supervalu 1991<br />
Carrigtwohill Town centre permission 06/13581 248<br />
Fota Retail Park 8400<br />
Passage West<br />
Tower<br />
Little Island<br />
none<br />
none<br />
none<br />
Cobh Marina development (04/52053) 206<br />
Retail warehouse & garden centre 1495<br />
Aldi (05/6951) 1076<br />
Ballynoe 439 340<br />
Lidl 1040<br />
Total Outer Metropolitan 6744 6532 10525
Mallow Dairygold site (excl. 4Home) 3000 5205<br />
Drommahane - mixed use 4000<br />
Fermoy Toss Bryans (N/02/4694) 1625<br />
Tourno Enter (N/05/7517) 553<br />
Youghal<br />
Bandon<br />
none<br />
none<br />
Macroom Mixed use retail 400<br />
Kinsale Redevelopment of quay 800<br />
Supervalu - Station site -250<br />
Builders Yard 1380 425 825<br />
Adjoining Builders Yard 600<br />
Troopers Close 1000<br />
Ring Towns 5380 11180 3003<br />
Other County Inchiquin, Killeagh - garden centre 2700<br />
Killeagh - mixed use inc. 8 retail units 1920<br />
Clonakilty Connolly Street (50034/06) 435<br />
5 units at Clark Street (50018/06) 708<br />
2 units at Clark Street (50003/06) 115<br />
Extension - Faxbridge (50034/04) 515<br />
Extension - Ashe Street (50000/06) 334
Skibbereen 1&1a Market Street (06/57027) 53<br />
Cellar Bar, Main St (06/57040) 85<br />
37 Bridge St (06/57064) 33<br />
26 North St (05/57011) 194<br />
Levis Quay (19/03) 683<br />
The Square (05/57023) 99<br />
Mitchelstown Lidl - R07 site 1176 110<br />
Aldi - Old Mill Site 750 100<br />
Bantry<br />
none<br />
Charleville Beaux Walk 1500 3240<br />
Kanturk<br />
Millstreet<br />
none<br />
none<br />
Newmarket Top car site - hardware store 2000<br />
Dunmanway Co-op 99/4643 1925<br />
Castletownbere none<br />
Schull<br />
none<br />
Little Island East Gate Retail Park 13028<br />
Other County <strong>Cork</strong> 5351 8624 17728
APPENDIX 3<br />
The Surveys of Shopping Patterns
Appendix 3 : The Surveys of Shopping Patterns<br />
Introduction<br />
1 Between April and early August 2007 two sets of surveys were carried out to investigate<br />
patterns of shopping and attitudes to the various town centres in the Study Area. First, there<br />
were on-site surveys of 1,000 people shopping in the two biggest centres - <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre and<br />
the Mahon Point shopping centre. Next there was a home-based survey, conducted by<br />
telephone, of a sample of 1,150 households living throughout the County. Copies of the<br />
questionnaires used are attached as Annex 1 and Annex 2.<br />
The Shoppers Survey<br />
2 The objective of the shopper survey was to investigate the shopping behaviour of people using<br />
the <strong>City</strong> centre and Mahon Point, with particular reference to spending at the centres by those<br />
living outside County <strong>Cork</strong>. This survey provides the main evidence on such imports of<br />
expenditure from places outside the County.<br />
3 Interviews were restricted to people who were shopping in the two centres. At Mahon Point,<br />
shoppers were interviewed at the four main exits from the mall. In the <strong>City</strong> centre there were<br />
four interview points along St. Patrick Street. To obtain a random sample, interviewers were<br />
instructed to approach the first person who came along after they had finished and checked the<br />
previous interview, without any attempt at selection. There were 402 respondents at Mahon<br />
Point and 594 in the <strong>City</strong> centre. In both centres around 90% were female. At Mahon Point, 95%<br />
were aged from 20 to 59 but in the <strong>City</strong> centre the age spread was wider, with 13% aged under<br />
20 and a similar proportion aged 60 or over. The great majority of the respondents’ households<br />
had cars – 98% at Mahon Point and 89% in the <strong>City</strong> centre – most of them having more than one<br />
car. The distribution by social class of the household’s main income earner is given by the<br />
following table. The white-collar proportion was higher at Mahon Point while the retired were<br />
more prominent in the <strong>City</strong> centre.<br />
Table 1 Social Class of Main Income Earner<br />
Mahon Point <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
No of respondents 390 566<br />
% %<br />
Professional 14.1 11.8<br />
Intermediate 28.2 24.2<br />
Skilled non-manual 16.4 14.1<br />
Skilled manual 26.9 22.3<br />
Semi skilled 5.9 9.7<br />
Unskilled 0.3 0.0<br />
Military 1.8 0.5<br />
Retired 4.4 12.5<br />
Student 1.3 1.9<br />
Unemployed 0.0 1.2<br />
Other economically inactive 0.8 1.6<br />
Total percentage 100.0 100.0<br />
4 At Mahon Point the field-work was spread over 8 days, covering different parts of the week and<br />
weekend, together with evening shopping periods. In the <strong>City</strong>, the spread was still wider, at 13<br />
days, but special occasions such as the <strong>City</strong> Jazz Festival were avoided as being<br />
unrepresentative. The survey therefore covered a wide range of conditions but in itself this was<br />
not necessarily enough. It is a feature of surveys of this kind that the results can be affected by<br />
the detailed distribution of the time and location of the interviews. Initial examination of the<br />
Mahon Point results showed that there were indeed differences between the four exits and<br />
between the days of the week, particularly regarding shoppers who came from outside the<br />
county. These shoppers were most sparse at the exit near the supermarket, where respondents<br />
1
Appendix 3 : The Surveys of Shopping Patterns<br />
tended to be short-distance food shoppers and most common at the end of the week. We<br />
therefore weighted the results by exit and time of the week in accordance with data from the<br />
automatic counters at each exit, kindly provided by the Mahon Point Centre management. In the<br />
<strong>City</strong> centre there was no noticeable difference by interview point but significant differences by<br />
day of the week. We therefore weighted by day, in accordance with footfall counts that the<br />
interviewers carried out in the course of their work. In the results set out below the percentages<br />
have been weighted in these ways, but the numbers of respondents are the actual numbers<br />
responding to each question (These vary because some questions did not apply to all<br />
respondents or because a few respondents did not answer particular questions)<br />
5 Although the survey was confined to shoppers, shopping was not always the main reason for<br />
the current visit, as shown by the following table. At Mahon Point, one in eight were there for<br />
work, to visit the cinema or cafes, or to meet friends over coffee. In the <strong>City</strong>, such purposes<br />
were even more common. Of those whose main purpose was shopping, the great majority were<br />
on comparison shopping expeditions: at Mahon Point, only a quarter were mainly there to buy<br />
food or groceries, and less than a tenth in the <strong>City</strong> Centre.<br />
Table 2 Main Purpose of Current Visit<br />
Mahon Point <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
No of respondents 394 594<br />
% %<br />
supermarket shopping 24.7 4.9<br />
shopping for food/groceries elsewhere 0.3 2.3<br />
shopping for clothes/shoes 55.1 64.2<br />
visit the market 0.9 1.2<br />
other forms of shopping 7.6 7.7<br />
visiting bars/cafes/restaurants 2.9 0.2<br />
bank, building society, finance 0.0 0.5<br />
leisure/recreation 6.0 9.7<br />
education 0.0 1.4<br />
work here 2.6 7.9<br />
other 0.0 0.0<br />
Total percentage 100.0 100.0<br />
6 We now turn to a central feature of the survey; to investigate how much trade comes from<br />
outside the County. Table 4.3 shows that 5% of the Mahon Point respondents lived outside<br />
County <strong>Cork</strong>, mainly in the neighbouring counties of Limerick, Kerry, Waterford and Tipperary.<br />
There was a similar representation of these counties in the <strong>City</strong> centre, but also a larger<br />
presence from other parts of the Republic, or from overseas, so that in total 9% of <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
respondents lived outside the County.<br />
2
Appendix 3 : The Surveys of Shopping Patterns<br />
Table 3 Place of Residence of Respondent<br />
Mahon Point <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
No of respondents 402 594<br />
% %<br />
Centre 48.7 48.8<br />
Elsewhere County <strong>Cork</strong> 46.3 42.3<br />
County Limerick 1.4 0.9<br />
County Kerry 1.5 1.2<br />
County Waterford 0.8 1.6<br />
County Tipperary (both) 0.2 0.6<br />
Rest of the Republic 1.0 3.0<br />
Northern Ireland 0.0 0.0<br />
England Scotland Wales 0.0 1.3<br />
Rest of World 0.0 0.3<br />
Total percentage 100.0 100.0<br />
7 Some of these “non–<strong>Cork</strong>ers” make regular shopping visits from their homes outside the county,<br />
invariably for comparison purchases (none of them gave food or grocery shopping as their main<br />
purpose). But there was also a more random element: at Mahon Point, 72% said they did not<br />
shop there regularly, or that this was their first visit (the comparable figure in the <strong>City</strong> centre was<br />
34%). Only about half of all “non-<strong>Cork</strong>ers” in both centres had started their visit from home – the<br />
rest had come from other places, usually within County <strong>Cork</strong>. In fact, 20% of those visiting the<br />
<strong>City</strong> Centre had come under their own steam – by foot or cycle - from hotels or other temporary<br />
addresses<br />
8 It is to be expected that there are people from nearby counties making regular comparison<br />
shopping trips, since high level shopping facilities are sparse in Kerry and Tipperary and less<br />
attractive than <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> in many other nearby areas. And, as we can see, <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Centre and<br />
Mahon Point are also benefiting from occasional visitors to the county.<br />
9 Long distance visitors like these tend to spend more than other shoppers. At Mahon Point,<br />
where respondents were interviewed as they left the centre, we asked how much they and other<br />
members of their shopping party had spent on the current trip. In the <strong>City</strong> Centre we asked how<br />
much respondents expected their parties to spend in total on the current trip. The results are<br />
given by Table 4.4, broken down between people living outside the county and all shoppers.<br />
Table 4 Mean Expenditure on Current Trip by Shopping Party (€)<br />
Mahon Point<br />
<strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
non-<strong>Cork</strong> all non-<strong>Cork</strong> all<br />
No of respondents 31 402 61 594<br />
€ € € €<br />
Supermarkets 1.8 27.7 0.3 5.9<br />
Food/groceries at other shops 0.0 0.4 0.0 3.9<br />
Clothes/ shoes 132.8 83.1 98.9 53.7<br />
Market 0.4 1.2 1.7 1.8<br />
Other shops 31.8 14.1 10.1 16.7<br />
Total expenditure 166.8 126.5 110.9 81.9<br />
Total convenience 2.2 29.3 2.0 11.6<br />
Total comparison 164.6 97.2 109.0 70.3<br />
10 For all shopping parties, average expenditure was €127 at Mahon Point and €82 in the <strong>City</strong><br />
Centre. Expenditure by non-residents was about one third higher – averaging €167 at Mahon<br />
3
Appendix 3 : The Surveys of Shopping Patterns<br />
Point and €111 in the <strong>City</strong> Centre. Non residents spent very little on convenience goods so their<br />
expenditure on comparison goods was considerably higher than that of all shoppers.<br />
11 If we take account of these differences in expenditure it can be shown that people from outside<br />
the county accounted for 8% of Mahon Point’s comparison trade and 14% of that in the <strong>City</strong><br />
Centre. By contrast, their contribution to convenience turnover was negligible – less than 1% at<br />
Mahon Point and only just over 1% in the <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
12 Returning to the entire shopper sample, we asked what other centres they used for buying<br />
clothes and shoes (Table 4.5)<br />
Table 5 Other Centres for Clothes or Shoes<br />
Mahon Point <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
No of respondents 401 587<br />
% %<br />
No other centre 7.5 15.9<br />
<strong>City</strong> Centre/ Mahon Point 68.0 56.5<br />
Any centre in Dublin 3.9 8.3<br />
Galway 1.6 0.2<br />
Waterford 1.9 2.4<br />
Limerick 3.3 5.1<br />
Douglas Court/ Village 47.0 31.3<br />
Fermoy 1.5 3.0<br />
Mallow 1.4 4.5<br />
Skibbereen 0.3 3.2<br />
Clonalkilty 2.2 3.5<br />
Wilton 15.2 15.9<br />
Blackpool 7.3 13.9<br />
Midleton/ Youghal 2.9 3.4<br />
Ballincollig 1.7 3.8<br />
Can't say/whereever I am 0.1 0.9<br />
Outside Ireland 0.0 2.4<br />
Elsewhere Ireland 4.7 5.7<br />
Total percentage 170.5 179.9<br />
13 A few said there was no other centre. Of those at Mahon Point the majority gave <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong><br />
centre and, vice versa, of those in the <strong>City</strong> Centre the majority gave Mahon Point. Douglas<br />
Court/Village was also important, followed by Wilton and Blackpool. The remaining suburban<br />
centres, together with the county towns, attracted less than 10% apiece, as did external centres<br />
like Dublin, Galway, Waterford or Limerick.<br />
14 When asked which centre was the main centre for clothes or shoes, 71% of those interviewed in<br />
the <strong>City</strong> centre gave the <strong>City</strong> centre and 54% of those at Mahon Point gave Mahon Point. At the<br />
same time 28% of those at Mahon Point gave the <strong>City</strong> centre and 8% of those at the <strong>City</strong> centre<br />
gave Mahon Point. By contrast, the other centres, including Douglas Court/ Village trailed a long<br />
way behind, with only 5% or fewer choices apiece. So taking clothing and footwear as a proxy<br />
for general comparison shopping the <strong>City</strong> centre and Mahon Point clearly have a firm grip on<br />
this sector.<br />
15 These data give an initial picture of comparison shopping patterns. A more systematic view is<br />
provided by the household survey, described later in this section. We next asked shoppers at<br />
Mahon Point and the <strong>City</strong> Centre why they used these centres (Table 4.6).<br />
4
Appendix 3 : The Surveys of Shopping Patterns<br />
Table 6 Why Do You Shop Here?<br />
Mahon Point <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
No of respondents 402 594<br />
% %<br />
Close to home 35.5 34.3<br />
Close to work 6.3 13.3<br />
Easy to get to 35.5 35.4<br />
good public transport 0.4 11.5<br />
sufficient car parking 62.2 4.3<br />
reasonably priced/free parking 7.3 0.8<br />
good selection/quality of shops 52.8 81.2<br />
good mix of shopping & leisure 19.6 35.8<br />
Specific shop or shops 16.3 29.2<br />
Pleasant shopping environment 33.2 44.9<br />
Good standard of cleanliness 9.5 31.0<br />
Like the market 2.3 7.8<br />
Safe shopping environment 11.7 34.5<br />
Total percentage 215.3 281.3<br />
16 As in the previous table, the percentages sum to more than 100 because respondents were able<br />
to give more than one answer. The first group of reasons centred on accessibility – the centres<br />
were close to home, close to work or simply easy to get to. More positive reasons were<br />
connected with the range and quality of shops and leisure facilities with the much bigger <strong>City</strong><br />
centre scoring particularly highly on these factors. Mahon Point scored well on parking; the <strong>City</strong><br />
centre on cleanliness and safety. Both centres were regarded as providing a pleasant shopping<br />
environment.<br />
17 Conversely, we then asked what people disliked about the centres (Table 4.7). A point to notice<br />
on this table is the percentage giving no reply, or specifically stating that there was nothing they<br />
particularly disliked. These figure in most surveys of this kind but Mahon Point and the <strong>City</strong><br />
centre do better on these measures than most other centres we have surveyed elsewhere, the<br />
level being 70% at Mahon Point and 31% in the <strong>City</strong> centre.<br />
5
Appendix 3 : The Surveys of Shopping Patterns<br />
Table 7 Is There Anything You Particularly Dislike About This Centre?<br />
Mahon Point <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
No of respondents 402 594<br />
% %<br />
No reply 9.2 7.9<br />
Nothing 60.3 22.6<br />
Inconvenient to get to 4.4 2.9<br />
Poor public transport 0.7 9.5<br />
Inadequate car parking 1.6 22.8<br />
Expensive car parking 0.0 45.2<br />
Poor quality shops 0.9 1.2<br />
Lack of particular type of shop 20.6 5.6<br />
Lack of leisure facilities 0.9 2.8<br />
UNpleasant shopping environment 2.6 6.6<br />
Poor standard of cleanliness 0.0 6.7<br />
Unsafe/ threatening environment 0.0 1.9<br />
Beggars/ vagrants 0.0 8.1<br />
Traffic congestion 0.0 4.5<br />
Total percentage 101.2 148.3<br />
18 When criticisms were made they mainly related to car parking in the city Centre. Most of these<br />
complaints were about the cost of parking but there were some worries about the quantity of<br />
parking. By contrast, Mahon Point is amply provided with free parking but there were a few<br />
complaints that probably relate to weekend conditions, when parking can overflow onto the<br />
distributor roads.<br />
19 Smaller percentages criticised the physical and social environment of the <strong>City</strong> centre, including<br />
poor cleanliness, traffic congestion, beggars and vagrants. Mahon Point was largely free of such<br />
criticisms; instead the main complaint related to the absence of particular shops – M&S, Dunnes<br />
and Penneys being frequently mentioned.<br />
Table 8 Do You Have Any Suggestions For Improving This Centre?<br />
Mahon Point <strong>City</strong> Centre<br />
No of respondents 402 594<br />
% %<br />
No reply/nothing 43.8 29.5<br />
More/ better park & ride 0.0 23.6<br />
Make the centre eaier to get to 0.7 9.2<br />
Provide more parking 1.3 24.5<br />
More shops 6.6 2.9<br />
Better range of shops 14.7 17.7<br />
Provide specific shop 34.7 14.6<br />
Provide particular leisure facil 5.4 3.0<br />
Improve street cleanliness 0.0 5.0<br />
Pedestrianise particular Street 0.0 13.8<br />
Pedestrianise St Patrick Street 0.0 7.7<br />
Improve pedestrian environment 0.8 8.2<br />
Total percentage 108.0 159.7<br />
20 On suggestions for improving the centres (Table 4.8) there were many respondents who did not<br />
voice a proposal – 44% at Mahon Point and 30% in the <strong>City</strong> centre. At Mahon Point the<br />
suggestions mirrored the criticisms of Table 4.7, relating to provision of particular shops or,<br />
more generally, a wider range of shops. The <strong>City</strong> centre was not free of such proposals but the<br />
6
Appendix 3 : The Surveys of Shopping Patterns<br />
main suggestions related to parking or better park & ride facilities. In addition there was a body<br />
of suggestions about pedestrianisation or improved pedestrian facilities, including the<br />
pedestrianisation of St Patrick Street.<br />
The Household Survey<br />
21 The household survey was carried out in July and August 2007 by Lansdowne Market<br />
Research, using a questionnaire designed by Roger Tym & Partners. The survey was<br />
conducted by telephone, using the Eircom listings for <strong>Cork</strong> together with quota controls. A total<br />
of 1150 usable interviews was obtained.<br />
22 The standard formula of statistical significance for a random sample gives 95% confidence<br />
limits of:<br />
1.96*SQRT((B18*(1-B18)*(1-B16/B17))/B16)<br />
23 In other words, if B18 is some attribute of the sample (eg the market share of centre X for<br />
clothes & shoes) there is a 95% (20 to 1) probability that the "real value" lies between the limits<br />
given by this formula, where:<br />
B16 is the sample size, and<br />
B17 is the population size<br />
24 Taking an attribute of 10% and substituting values for the <strong>Cork</strong> sample (1,150) and the number<br />
of households in the Study Area (172,200) we get:<br />
SAMPLE SIZE 1150<br />
POPULATION SIZE 172200<br />
ATTRIBUTE 10.0%<br />
95% LIMITS 1.7% (plus or minus)<br />
25 Which means there is a 95% probability that the real value lies between 8.3% and 11.7%. This<br />
is the standard statistical test. Taking a lower (68%) probability the confidence limits are:<br />
68% LIMITS 0.9% (plus or minus)<br />
26 Which means there is a 68% probability that the real value lies between 9.1% and 10.9%.<br />
27 A prime purpose of the survey was to provide a basis for calculating market shares of the main<br />
centres in the county. For “pure” comparison shopping we asked the following questions, taking<br />
clothes and shoes as a proxy for this type of shopping (in a telephone survey it is not<br />
reasonable to go through all the individual components of comparison shopping)<br />
• In which centre do you do most of your shopping for clothes and shoes?<br />
• Do you shop in any other centre for clothes and shoes?<br />
28 To calculate market shares we combined the two sets of results using weighting factors derived<br />
from previous surveys in <strong>Cork</strong> and elsewhere. This weighting is more detailed than the standard<br />
70:30 split used by other practitioners. The results are given by the following table.<br />
7
Appendix 3 : The Surveys of Shopping Patterns<br />
Table 9 Market Shares for “Pure” Comparison Goods<br />
Zone <strong>City</strong> Rest of<br />
Metropolitan<br />
Area<br />
Ring North Far west<br />
Centre<br />
% % % % %<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre 62.5 57.6 52.8 38.4 44.4<br />
Bandon 1.7 0.4 1.8 5.4<br />
Ballincollig 0.4 4.2 0.7 0.4 0.6<br />
Ballyvolane 1.5 0.4 0.1<br />
Bishopstown Court 0.7 1.2 0.3 1.6<br />
Blackpool 2.1 1.9 2.4 3.4 3.2<br />
Carrigaline 1.8 0.1 1.2<br />
Clonakilty 0.1 0.3 0.8 13.4<br />
Douglas Court / Village 12.0 6.8 0.7 2.0 2.2<br />
Fermoy 3.2 4.4 0.6<br />
Macroom 0.1 6.3 3.5<br />
Mahon Point 13.8 14.5 2.9 5.9 5.7<br />
Mallow 0.1 0.6 11.2 24.2<br />
Midleton 1.2 4.2 3.5<br />
Mitchelstown 0.3 0.1 9.4<br />
Skibbereen 0.1 0.4 1.3<br />
Wilton 2.1 2.8 0.7 0.9<br />
Youghal 0.1 0.8 4.6<br />
Other County <strong>Cork</strong> 0.9 0.4 1.3 6.2 3.2<br />
Other, outside County 0.7 1.5 6.4 3.5 14.9<br />
Mail order 0.2<br />
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0<br />
29 <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> centre had by far the largest market share in each of the five zones, ranging from 63%<br />
in the <strong>City</strong> zone down to 38% in the North zone. Mahon Point was the next most important<br />
centre in the <strong>City</strong> and in the Outer Metropolitan Area, with market shares of around 14% in each<br />
of these zones. Douglas Court – together with Douglas Village – was important in the <strong>City</strong> zone<br />
(12%) and also in the Outer Metropolitan Area (7%) Further out, Mallow emerges as a major<br />
centre, with an 11% share of the Ring zone and 24% of the North zone. Apart from Clonakilty,<br />
which is important in the small far-western zone, all the remaining centres held market shares<br />
well below 10% in their respective zones. We give the figures for these smaller centres to<br />
demonstrate the general spread of the results but the detailed differences between them are not<br />
statistically significant. Consequently, in Section 5 of the main report we combine these smaller<br />
centres into groups such as Outer Metropolitan (Ballincollig, Carrigaline and Midleton) or Other<br />
Ring Towns (Fermoy, Macroom, Bandon and Youghal but not Mallow, which is big enough to<br />
feature separately) At this stage we do not provide a total for the entire Study Area: this is also<br />
done in Section 5 when the results for the individual zones are weighted by population and percapita<br />
expenditure.<br />
30 Leakages from the Study Area were concentrated in the three outer zones. Some were to<br />
nearby towns in adjoining counties, principally Killarney, Waterford and Tralee, while others<br />
were to Dublin, Limerick and cities in the United Kingdom. Neither mail order or internet<br />
shopping feature strongly in the table.<br />
Supermarket shopping<br />
31 It is difficult for surveys of this kind to tackle the full range of convenience shopping.<br />
Respondents are normally able to give clear information about the supermarkets they use but<br />
8
Appendix 3 : The Surveys of Shopping Patterns<br />
shopping patterns at butchers, bakers, off-licences and other convenience outlets are often too<br />
complex to be dealt with in a brief interview. It is therefore our policy to concentrate on<br />
supermarket shopping, which accounts for the great majority of convenience expenditure.<br />
Moreover, it is the location of new supermarkets that forms the centre of planning debate in the<br />
convenience sector.<br />
32 The questions asked in the household survey were:<br />
• Can I ask where you do your main supermarket shopping?<br />
and<br />
• Is there any other supermarket you use?<br />
As with comparison shopping the results of these two questions were merged to create market<br />
shares, using weighting factors derived from previous surveys in <strong>Cork</strong> and elsewhere.<br />
Table 10 Market Shares For Supermarket Shopping<br />
Zone <strong>City</strong> Rest of<br />
Metropolitan<br />
Area<br />
Ring North Far west<br />
Centre % % % % %<br />
<strong>Cork</strong> city centre 18.0 4.5 2.6 0.4 4.4<br />
Bandon 0.5 0.9 2.0 0.0 5.1<br />
Ballincollig 0.8 13.1 0.4 0.4 0.0<br />
Ballyvolane 8.1 5.2 1.6 2.2 8.0<br />
Bishopstown Court 6.1 6.0 3.3 0.7 3.7<br />
Blackpool 3.5 1.7 1.2 1.1 0.0<br />
Bantry 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />
Carrigaline 1.8 18.6 0.9 2.2 0.0<br />
Clonakilty 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.0 38.2<br />
Cobh 0.0 5.1 0.1 0.0 0.0<br />
Douglas Court\ Village 30.6 8.4 0.9 1.9 2.2<br />
Fermoy 0.1 0.0 6.0 6.3 2.2<br />
Glanmire\Riverstown 1.1 3.4 0.1 0.0 0.0<br />
Kinsale 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0<br />
Macroom 0.1 0.0 16.5 1.9 7.4<br />
Mahon Point 6.2 1.6 0.5 1.5 0.8<br />
Mallow 0.3 0.6 25.0 39.6 2.9<br />
Midleton 2.0 14.9 4.9 0.0 2.2<br />
Mitchelstown 0.0 0.0 0.9 24.2 0.0<br />
Skibbereen 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8<br />
Wilton 6.7 5.9 0.9 0.4 0.8<br />
Youghal 0.2 0.6 23.4 0.0 0.0<br />
Grange 2.9 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0<br />
Charleville. 0.0 0.0 0.2 3.0 0.0<br />
Blarney 0.3 4.0 0.4 0.0 0.0<br />
Killarney 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.0 5.9<br />
Togher 4.3 1.2 0.3 0.0 0.0<br />
Blackrock 2.6 0.5 0.0 0.7 0.0<br />
Other, inside Study Area 3.6 3.0 4.1 13.4 14.0<br />
Other, outside Study Area 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5<br />
Internet 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0<br />
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0<br />
33 The <strong>City</strong> was dominated by the Douglas area, which includes the Douglas Court and Douglas<br />
Village Shopping Centres together with older shops near the latter. Together, these had a 31%<br />
market share of the <strong>City</strong> zone with considerable encroachments on the Outer Metropolitan zone.<br />
The <strong>City</strong> Centre had 18 percent of the <strong>City</strong> zone, followed by the other suburban centres at<br />
Ballyvolane, Bishopstown, Blackpool, Mahon Point , Wilton, Togher and Blackrock. In the Outer<br />
Metropolitan Area Ballincollig, Carrigaline and Midleton each had shares well over 10%.<br />
Further out, Mallow emerged as a very important centre, with 25% of the Ring zone and 40% of<br />
the Northern zone.<br />
34 With the exception of Mallow, most zones had their principal centres in their own zone,<br />
reflecting the fact that supermarket shopping is a short-range business. In addition to those<br />
mentioned Youghal and Macroom were very important in the Ring zone, Mitchelstown in the<br />
9
Appendix 3 : The Surveys of Shopping Patterns<br />
North zone and Clonakilty in the Far West. There was little evidence of leakage to centres<br />
outside the Study Area; Killarney took some trade from the small Far West zone, as did a few<br />
other external centres but these trades were small and probably balanced by flows in the<br />
reverse direction<br />
Retail warehouses<br />
35 Previous surveys have enquired about retail warehouses (RWH) using questions of the form:<br />
• Where does your household shop for bulky goods like DIY items or furniture and carpets?<br />
36 Such questions have been found to be seriously deficient. First, the term bulky goods is not an<br />
accurate reflexion of purchases at retail warehouses. Many retail warehouses do not sell bulky<br />
goods and - with those that do – it frequently happens that purchases are not particularly bulky,<br />
like a piece of software from PC World or a hand tool from B&Q. Research in the UK has<br />
questioned the belief that consumers shop at retail warehouses in order to drive bulky goods<br />
away in their cars. Instead the main reasons have been shown to be low prices and the ability to<br />
view wide ranges of certain types of good which are not normally displayed on the high street.<br />
Ease of access and parking by car are also important but the ability to carry away purchases by<br />
car comes low in the list of reasons. Finally, retail warehousing is highly fragmented - people<br />
who use them may buy DIY goods in one location, furniture and carpets at a quite different<br />
place, white durables at a third and so on. This is in marked contrast to what we term “pure<br />
comparison” shopping, where consumers carry out most of their expenditure in a single centre<br />
(or mall)<br />
37 For these reasons we now ask direct questions about retail warehouses, of the form:<br />
• Now, I want you to think about retail warehouses – the big shopping sheds like B&Q or PC<br />
World. Which of these places, if any, has your household used in the past twelve months?<br />
38 Respondents in the <strong>Cork</strong> survey were then asked to give the names and locations of up to three<br />
retail warehouses, in no particular order. About 40% said they had not used retail warehouse in<br />
the past year. With the rest, the answers were as shown below.<br />
10
Appendix 3 : The Surveys of Shopping Patterns<br />
Table 11 Retail Warehouses Used In The Previous Twelve Months (All Three Answers<br />
Combined)<br />
Number %<br />
Atlantic Homecare 232 18.4<br />
B&Q 322 25.6<br />
Currys 85 6.8<br />
Homebase 73 5.8<br />
Woodies 328 26.1<br />
Harvey Normans 37 2.9<br />
Argos 12 1.0<br />
4 Home 68 5.4<br />
Sound Store 8 0.6<br />
Dixons 4 0.3<br />
TK Maxx 2 0.2<br />
PC World 13 1.0<br />
Right Price Tiles 2 0.2<br />
Flor Griffins 8 0.6<br />
Tubs and Tiles 2 0.2<br />
Halfords 9 0.7<br />
Dunnes Stores 2 0.2<br />
MD O Sheas. 7 0.6<br />
Other 45 3.6<br />
TOTAL 1259 100.0<br />
TOTAL DIY 82.8<br />
TOTAL ELEC 12.6<br />
39 It will be seen that the great majority of answers related to DIY outlets, with Woodies heading<br />
the list, followed by B&Q and Atlantic Homecare. Apart from DIY, most of the remaining<br />
establishments were electrical or electronics outlets such as Curries, Dixons or PC World.<br />
Altogether, DIY outlets accounted for 83% of the places named and electrical/electronics for<br />
13%. The main locations were Mahon Point, Blackpool and Kinsale Road.<br />
40 To get an indicative view of expenditure at retail warehouses we asked respondents to estimate<br />
how much had been spent at the places they named in the past year. They were asked to give<br />
their estimates in broad ranges (up to €50, €50 to €99; €100 to €499 and so on) but we have<br />
obtained absolute figures by interpolating within these ranges. The results were as follows:<br />
Table 12 Estimated Expenditure In Retail Warehouses In The Previous Twelve Months<br />
<strong>City</strong> and<br />
Douglas<br />
Rest of<br />
Metropolit<br />
an Area<br />
Ring North Far west<br />
Average exp per household (€) 635 819 537 614 238<br />
Average household size (persons 2.71 2.98 2.90 2.46 3.15<br />
Average exp per capita (€) 234 275 185 249 75<br />
41 The results of such a question can only be taken as indicative and in the next section we make<br />
adjustments to these figures to take account of separate estimates of the trade of Study Area<br />
retail warehouses. But we retain the variation between the five zones which is plausible in terms<br />
of access to retail warehouses. The per-household figures are highest in the first two zones,<br />
where access is highest. They are lowest in the remote Far West zone. The North zone<br />
appears to be an anomaly but residents of this zone have access to the concentration of retail<br />
warehouses at Limerick (the sample size in this zone is also small).<br />
11
Appendix 3 : The Surveys of Shopping Patterns<br />
Views About The Centres<br />
42 Respondents were asked the following question<br />
• Thinking of the area where you live, are you happy with the range and quality of the<br />
shopping you can get to, or are there problems?<br />
43 The results were as follows:<br />
Table 13 Views About Local Shopping<br />
Zone<br />
<strong>City</strong> and<br />
Douglas<br />
Rest of<br />
Metropolitan<br />
Area<br />
Ring North Far west<br />
No of respondents 355 227 423 93 52<br />
% % % % %<br />
Very happy 58.3 54.6 48.9 48.4 63.5<br />
Somewhat happy 24.5 28.2 24.1 38.7 26.9<br />
So-so 7.3 8.4 10.9 6.5 0.0<br />
Not very happy 6.2 5.7 11.1 4.3 3.8<br />
Very unhappy 2.8 3.1 4.7 1.1 3.8<br />
Don’t know\ no opinion<br />
0.8 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.9<br />
TOTAL 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0<br />
44 In all zones the great majority said they were very happy or somewhat happy with the shopping<br />
they could get to. The proportions were no smaller in the remote North and Far West zones,<br />
where shopping facilities are sparse. Clearly, respondents were making allowance for this<br />
remoteness and felt that taking it into account, the shopping they could get to was in most cases<br />
good.<br />
45 Overall, the main criticisms concerned the range of shops available. Interestingly, this applied<br />
even in the inner zones and to <strong>Cork</strong> city Centre as well as the other two most frequently<br />
mentioned centres – Mallow and Youghal<br />
12
SHOPPERS' SURVEY<br />
Good morning/ afternoon. I am undertaking a survey on behalf of <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>Council</strong>. We are asking people about their shopping habits and what they think of<br />
the centre. Can I ask if you are shopping in this centre today?<br />
IF NO, CLOSE INTERVIEW. DO NOT USE THE FORM<br />
IF YES May I take up five minutes of your time to ask the questions?<br />
INTERVIEWER (2) ____________ DATE (3) _____________ LOCATION (5) ____________<br />
1 First, can I ask what is the main purpose of your visit to (6) 8 About how much do you expect to spend on shopping here today? (23)<br />
Mahon Point Centre today? Is it... ..<br />
(TO THE NEAREST EURO)<br />
supermarket shopping A supermarket shopping<br />
shopping for food and groceries at other shops B (26)<br />
shopping for clothes/shoes C<br />
visit the market D shopping for food and groceries at other shops<br />
other forms of shopping E (29)<br />
visiting pub/ cafe/ restaurant F shopping for clothes/shoes<br />
visiting bank or building society G (32 )<br />
leisure / recreation H<br />
education I at the market<br />
work here J (35)<br />
other (WRITE IN)<br />
other forms of shopping<br />
(38 )<br />
2 Where do you live? (INCLUDE NEAREST LARGE TOWN) ( 7) TOTAL<br />
IF RESPONDENT REFUSES ABOVE<br />
Can you tell me which of the letters on this card gives the TOTAL (41)<br />
amount you expect to spend at all shops?<br />
3 Where do you work (INCLUDE NEAREST LARGE TOWN) (11) less than €20 A<br />
€20 to €49 B<br />
€50 to €99 C<br />
€100 to €199 D<br />
4 Where did you start your journey to Mahon Point today? (15) €200 to €499 E<br />
€500 to €999 F<br />
From your home address (q2) 1 €1000 or more G<br />
From a different address (WRITE IN)<br />
9 Do you use any other centre or centres for buying clothes<br />
or shoes? (MULTICODE) (42)<br />
Was that other address (19) no, no other centre 1<br />
your place of work? 1 <strong>Cork</strong> <strong>City</strong> Centre 2<br />
a holiday home? 2 Any centre in Dublin 3<br />
other temporary residence? 3 Galway 4<br />
other (WRITE IN) 4 Waterford 5<br />
Limerick 6<br />
Douglas Court/Village 7<br />
Fermoy 8<br />
5 How did you travel here? (20) Mallow 9<br />
own car 1<br />
other car 2 Skibbereen A<br />
taxi 3 Clonakilty B<br />
bus 4 Other (WRITE IN)<br />
train 5<br />
walk/cycle 6<br />
other (WRITE IN)<br />
6 How long did your journey take? (21)<br />
(door to door) 0 - 10 mins A<br />
10 - 20 mins B<br />
20 - 30 mins C<br />
30 - 45 mins D<br />
45 mins plus E<br />
7 About how often do you shop in this centre? (22) 10 Would you say that Mahon Point is your main centre for clothes<br />
and shoes or is your main centre one of those mentioned above? (46)<br />
once a week or more often 1<br />
one every two or three weeks 2 Mahon Point is main centre 1<br />
monthly 3 no, main centre is (WRITE IN)<br />
less than once a month 4<br />
not regularly/ this is first time 5
11 Why do you shop in Mahon Point Centre? (50) 13 Do you have any suggestions for improving the centre? [58]<br />
(MULTICODE, DO NOT PROMPT)<br />
(MULTICODE, DO NOT PROMPT)<br />
no nothing 1<br />
close to home 1 make the town centre easier to get to 2<br />
close to work 2 provide more parking 3<br />
easy to get to 3 more shops 4<br />
good public transport links 4 provide better range of shops 5<br />
sufficient car parking 5 provide specific shop (NAME) 6<br />
reasonably priced car parking 6<br />
good selection/quality of shops 7 provide particular leisure facility (NAME)<br />
good mix of shopping and leisure facilities 8<br />
to visit specific shop(s) (NAME) 9 improve the cleanliness of the streets F<br />
pleasant shopping environment (general ambience<br />
D<br />
good standard of street cleanliness E pedestrianise particular street(NAME) G<br />
visit the market<br />
F<br />
A<br />
safe shopping environment G improve the pedestrian environment J<br />
other (WRITE IN)<br />
other (WRITE IN)<br />
12 Is there anything you particularlydislike about Mahon [54] 14 Does your household have a motor car? [62]<br />
Point Centre? (MULTICODE, DO NOT PROMPT)<br />
no, nothing 1 yes, one car 1<br />
yes, two or more cars 2<br />
inconvenient to get to 2 no, no car 3<br />
public transport links are poor 3<br />
inadequate car parking 4<br />
expensive car parking 5 15 What is the occupation of the main income earner in [63]<br />
your household?<br />
poor quality shops 6<br />
lack of particular type of shops 7<br />
lack of leisure facilities 8<br />
unpleasant shopping environment (general ambience) 9 16 Sex (OBSERVE) [64]<br />
male 1<br />
poor standard of street cleanliness A female 2<br />
unsafe/threatening environment B<br />
other (WRITE IN) 17 Age (OBSERVE) [65]<br />
less than 20 1<br />
20 to 39 2<br />
40 to 59 3<br />
60 or over 4<br />
Thankyou for your help. Would you have any objection if someone<br />
from our office called you back by telephone? This would be just<br />
be to check that the interview was carried out properly<br />
telephone number ______________________________<br />
name of respondent _____________________________________<br />
INTERVIEWER'S SIGNATURE ___________________________
APPENDIX 4<br />
Per-Capita Sales
Appendix 4 : Per Capita Sales<br />
Per-Capita Sales<br />
This Appendix outlines the RTP retail model. It describes the estimation of retail sales at the<br />
national level, divided between convenience goods and comparison goods, and the projection of<br />
future levels. It sets out the methodology for moving to local estimates.<br />
Base year retail sales<br />
The starting point is an analysis of the Annual Services Inquiry (ASI) 1 in which details of firms’<br />
sales are classified into categories which enable the following breakdown:<br />
• Sales of convenience goods, which we define as food, non-alcoholic beverages, alcohol and<br />
tobacco.<br />
• Sales of comparison goods, which we define as all other retailed goods, with two exceptions.<br />
Only half of the sale of spare parts and accessories for motor vehicles has been included,<br />
since some of these sales are related to car servicing etc. Only one quarter of the sales<br />
under the category 'Other goods and services' has been included. The bulk of sales here are<br />
estimated to be services.<br />
Using special tabulations from the CSO we can eliminate from the crude ASI data sales of alcohol<br />
and tobacco that take part in bars rather than shops. We then make allowances for VAT and<br />
eliminate sales to foreign tourists, using data from surveys of non-resident expenditure by Bord<br />
Failte. (Estimates of tourist expenditure at the local level are added back in at a later stage) The<br />
results, based on the 2003 ASI updated to 2004 using the Index of Retail Sales, are as follows:<br />
Table A1: National sales of convenience and comparison goods, 2004<br />
State total<br />
€ million<br />
State population<br />
million<br />
Sales per capita<br />
€<br />
Sales of convenience goods 12,043 4.076 2,955<br />
Sales of comparison goods 11,170 4.076 2,741<br />
Total sales of convenience goods were €12,043 million in 2004. Dividing by the population in that<br />
year gives per capita sales of €2,955. Sales of comparison goods were €11,170 million, giving a<br />
per-capita level of €2,741.<br />
Although the figures are couched in terms of sales per person they include sales to businesses,<br />
such as the following:<br />
• sales of food and drink to hotels and restaurants by supermarkets, butchers, greengrocers<br />
and the like.<br />
• Sales to builders by DIY and hardware stores.<br />
• Retail purchases by offices of stationary or office equipment.<br />
These are important ingredients of retail turnover and it is necessary that they be included. The<br />
implication of such inclusion is that there is a reasonably stable relationship between personal<br />
and business expenditure in shops.<br />
1 The ASI provides more comprehensive data on retail sales than the National Accounts. National Accounts<br />
figures for Personal Consumption do not include sales to businesses, as pointed out below. In addition, personal<br />
expenditure on materials for housing maintenance is deliberately understated and that on housing improvement is<br />
eliminated. We do, however use the Personal Consumption data for future estimates, on the assumption that<br />
there is a stable relationship between Personal Consumption and total retail sales<br />
1
Appendix 4 : Per Capita Sales<br />
Future growth in retail sales<br />
We project retail sales forward using the forecasts of GNP and consumption made by the latest<br />
ESRI Mid Term Review, for 2005 to 2012. The projection follows the ESRI high forecast, which is<br />
considered to be the most likely.<br />
Retail expenditure takes only a third of total personal consumption. The rest is devoted to<br />
services, including financial transactions. It is therefore invalid to assume a simple relationship<br />
between retail sales and personal consumption or income – an assumption frequently made by<br />
many practitioners of retail planning. Instead, we relate future retail sales to the ESRI personal<br />
consumption forecasts using an analysis of trends over the periods 1995 to 2004 and 2000 to<br />
2004<br />
We have produced a projection of the national population to correspond with the ESRI forecasts.<br />
Dividing the foregoing estimates of national retail sales by these populations gives average sales<br />
per head of population, shown in Table A2. In 2006 this is €3,040 for convenience goods and<br />
€3,151 for comparison goods. Moving to 2016 the convenience goods figure rises very slightly to<br />
€3,193, while that for comparison goods rises to €4,785. This latter increase is equivalent to 4.3<br />
percent per annum over the ten year period– much lower than the rates of the late 1990s but still<br />
rather higher than current projections for the United Kingdom. We assume a continuation of the<br />
2016 rates for the years up to 2020.<br />
Table A2 National per capita convenience and comparison sales, 2006 to 2016<br />
Year<br />
Convenience per<br />
capita sales<br />
Increase on<br />
previous year<br />
(%)<br />
Comparison per<br />
capita sales<br />
Increase on<br />
previous year (%)<br />
2004 2,955 2,741<br />
2005 3,011 1.9% 2,974 8.5%<br />
2006 3,040 1.0% 3,151 6.0%<br />
2007 3,049 0.3% 3,277 4.0%<br />
2008 3,056 0.2% 3,398 3.7%<br />
2009 3,060 0.1% 3,515 3.4%<br />
2010 3,089 1.0% 3,714 5.7%<br />
2011 3,110 0.7% 3,890 4.7%<br />
2012 3,124 0.5% 4,052 4.2%<br />
2013 3,140 0.5% 4,223 4.2%<br />
2014 3,157 0.5% 4,401 4.2%<br />
2015 3,174 0.6% 4,589 4.3%<br />
2016 3,193 0.6% 4,785 4.3%<br />
Estimation of local sales<br />
For individual zones in the Study Area, per capita sales figures are derived by adjusting the<br />
national levels according to differences in the composition of the population by socio-economic<br />
group. This process uses differentials by socio economic group provided by the CSO Household<br />
Budget Survey. (Again the assumption is made that there is a stable relationship between<br />
household expenditure and total retail sales).<br />
The Census of Population, 2002, gives breakdowns of households by the socio-economic group<br />
(SEG) of the household reference person. The Household Budget Survey (HBS) gives average<br />
weekly expenditure for five consolidated SEGs, grouped as follows:<br />
• Employers, managers, higher and lower professionals<br />
• Non-manual and own account workers<br />
• Skilled manual<br />
2
Appendix 4 : Per Capita Sales<br />
• Semi-skilled and unskilled<br />
• Farmers, agricultural workers and others gainfully occupied and unknown<br />
There are large differences between the expenditure levels of the five groups,that of the first<br />
being well over double that of the last. Combination of the Household Budget data with the<br />
Census breakdowns gives the differential between national and local sales levels.<br />
This process was carried out for the five zones of the Study Area giving the following differentials<br />
for comparison and convenience sales<br />
Table A3 Study area zones, 2007, differential from national average per-capita<br />
expenditure<br />
<strong>City</strong> and<br />
Douglas<br />
Rest of<br />
Metropolitan<br />
Area<br />
Ring North Far west Entire Study<br />
Area<br />
Convenience 100.3 102.4 99.2 97.0 97.1 100.0<br />
Comparison 99.7 106.5 97.1 90.2 93.1 99.4<br />
For each zone the per capita figures are expressed as a percentage of the national average. It<br />
will be seen that the figures are highest in the Rest of the Metropolitan Area, at 102.4% of the<br />
national average for convenience goods and 106.5% for comparison goods. They are lowest in<br />
the North zone, at 97.0% and 90.2% respectively.<br />
The figures for the entire Study Area are close to the national average, at 100.0% for convenience<br />
goods and 99.4% for comparison goods. It should be borne in mind that these Study Area figures<br />
are weighted averages for the five zones – weighted that is, by population. As the population<br />
distribution changes this weighted average will also change.<br />
It is difficult to compare these levels with earlier estimates of expenditure levels in the <strong>Cork</strong> area,<br />
such as those from our previous retail studies. The price base was different and local per capita<br />
estimates were based on different census data. Indeed, there is no direct data on differential<br />
changes in retail expenditure between different parts of the State.<br />
3
APPENDIX 5<br />
Guidance on Retail Impact Assessment
Appendix 5 : Guidance on Retail Impact Assessment<br />
Retail Impact Assessment Guidance<br />
1. Retail Impact Assessment is a tool used by Planning Authorities and applicants for<br />
permission for substantial retail developments to understand and justify the addition of<br />
particular retail development in the context of the detailed strategy and the emerging<br />
urban context into which the development must integrate without causing significant<br />
disruption.<br />
2. The National Spatial Strategy has set out a structure for the future urbanisation of the Irish<br />
population, with a hierarchy of urban centres providing critical mass to sustain a range of<br />
quality of life services, including a good quality retail environment. In an increasingly<br />
urbanised and wealthy environment, retail is an essential service, a generator of<br />
economic activity and employment and often times a catalyst for urban centre<br />
redevelopment or expansion to meet the needs of enlarged urban areas.<br />
3. The hierarchy of strategic and statutory development plans set the broad context for<br />
scale, type and location of retail developments. For <strong>Cork</strong>, this structure has been set out<br />
in the Retail Strategy, which is incorporated into the <strong>City</strong> & County Development Plans in<br />
the first instance and is more specifically reflected in the local area plans.<br />
4. Therefore, the first source of guidance on retail acceptability should be based in the<br />
strategic and statutory plans that apply to a particular area. The Retail Hierarchy for <strong>Cork</strong><br />
<strong>City</strong> & County have been set out in the main body of the <strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study,<br />
which also includes the primary criteria for development control with emphasis upon the<br />
sequential approach, maintenance of vitality and viability of existing centres and<br />
promoting accessibility.<br />
5. The purpose of Retail Impact Assessment is to focus upon the potential impact upon the<br />
pattern of retailing in established centres in a catchment area, without focussing on<br />
individual retail businesses or interfering with normal competition. As indicated in the<br />
Retail Planning Guidelines (Para. 57) where an application for development complies with<br />
the policies and proposals of a Development Plan in all material aspects it should not<br />
necessary for the applicant to provide additional supporting background studies.<br />
Therefore, retail developments within town centres should only require a detailed<br />
quantative and qualitative Retail Impact Assessment in exceptional circumstances.<br />
6. Retailing is a dynamic industry subject to constant change, renewal and significant<br />
expansion where the population is rapidly urbanising. Retail addition to town centres is<br />
often a strategic advantage with long-term beneficial effects that should be taken into<br />
account. Retail capacity should not be assessed on a primarily mathematically basis but<br />
should be assessed by appropriateness of type and format for the particular centre. A<br />
detailed Retail Impact Assessment should not be necessary for developments within the<br />
city centre, suburbs, metropolitan and ring towns for developments below 2,500m 2 gross<br />
comparison goods and 1,000m 2 convenience goods.<br />
7. Retail Impact Assessment is an aid to decision making and should not be the sole basis<br />
upon which an application for significant retail development should be determined. The<br />
overall Retail Assessment should encompass: a sequential location assessment, an<br />
assessment of need and a quantification of impact.<br />
8. The qualitative element should include a justification of location, based on the sequential<br />
test, with onus on the applicant to demonstrate that no more suitable sites are available<br />
within a reasonable period of time. Centrality of development must take into account the<br />
suitability of development for a central location.<br />
9. Availability should take into account whether particular central sites are available to the<br />
market, whether there is potential for site assembly and the engagement of the Local<br />
Authority in expansion, regeneration and renewal of town centres.<br />
10. Taking into account the urban and retail hierarchy, retail development should be<br />
appropriate for the size and function of the town and its catchment area. Retail<br />
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Appendix 5 : Guidance on Retail Impact Assessment<br />
developers have a number of formats that can be accommodated to the requirements of a<br />
particular retail market and therefore suitability of format should be demonstrated.<br />
11. The sequential test should be the first exercise to be carried out. It may indicate that there<br />
is no further point in carrying out a quantitative assessment, because there are more<br />
appropriate sites available within the town centre or on the edge of the town centre.<br />
12. The qualitative assessment of centres incorporated in the <strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study<br />
indicates the current condition within each centre. The vitality and viability parameters;<br />
diversity and retailer representation; ease of access and parking; availability of public<br />
transport; market conditions and rents; can be easily checked by observation and<br />
consultation with local estate agents.<br />
13. The Guidance on the Assessment of Retail Impact is set at Annex 4 of the Retail Planning<br />
Guidelines. This is a rigorous process that should be required to be carried out only in the<br />
context of larger proposed developments not in conformity with the development plan. Six<br />
key steps are involved:-<br />
(i) identification of the catchment area in accordance with the criteria set out above;<br />
(ii)<br />
(iii)<br />
(iv)<br />
(v)<br />
estimation of expenditure available within the defined catchment area, using<br />
expenditure figures set out above adjusted in accordance with the Consumer Price<br />
Index;<br />
estimation of the turnover of existing centres within the catchment area which are<br />
likely to be affected by a new development, based on the turnover figures set out<br />
above;<br />
estimation of the turnover of the new development for which a planning application<br />
is being lodged, based on turnover figures set out above adjusted for enhanced<br />
efficiency;<br />
estimation of the quantum of consumer retail spending available in the catchment<br />
area which will be diverted from existing centres to the new retail development. This<br />
involves subjective assumptions based on professional judgement that must be<br />
detailed and justified. Centres of similar scale and function compete with each other<br />
at a level reduced by distance;<br />
(vi) aggregation of the zonal diversions from each centre to the new development to<br />
provide an estimate of trade diversion expressed as a proportion of a centres<br />
turnover at the target year to provide a measure of impact. This applies where more<br />
than one competing centre is affected and taking into account potential<br />
accumulative impacts arising from other permitted developments.<br />
14. Shopper surveys are relatively efficient to conduct and can provide evidence to support<br />
the extent of the catchment area and leakage to other competing centres. Household<br />
surveys are increasingly difficult to carry out on a meaningful basis due to the difficulties<br />
now encountered in undertaking telephone surveys.<br />
15. The catchment area should be based upon the type of retail format proposed; the<br />
strategic urban function; the urban target population; and the hinterland catchment, taking<br />
into account the need for headroom to facilitate the town achieving its strategic role and<br />
the drive to urbanisation. Typically, most large foodstores will draw much of their trade<br />
from within a 15 minutes drive time. The main town centres are likely to draw from a 20-<br />
30 minute drive time catchment area. An estimate of spending generated within the<br />
catchment area necessary to both inform the quantitative need assessment and impact<br />
assessment can be obtained by following the same approach as set out in Chapter 5 of<br />
the main report in estimating available expenditure.<br />
16. In estimating the potential turnover of new development, this should be based on the net<br />
new retail floorspace, generally assuming that some 65-70% of the gross convenience<br />
goods floorspace will be the net sales area and that some 75- 80 % of gross comparison<br />
goods floorspace will be sales space. For bulky goods outlets the net sales area would<br />
represent some 85-90% of the gross area. The sales density ratios are those provided in<br />
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Appendix 5 : Guidance on Retail Impact Assessment<br />
the <strong>Cork</strong> Strategic Retail Study 2007, subsequently to be adjusted by the applicant to<br />
reflect the timeframe elapsed between the preparation of the CSRS and that of the<br />
particular Retail Impact Statement.<br />
17. Care should taken to identify specifically the particular types of retailing proposed taking<br />
into account that industry dynamics have resulted in certain stores trading over a range of<br />
formats, including convenience and comparison goods under the one roof. Catchment<br />
areas and turnover ratios therefore, must be applied specifically to the particular format.<br />
Higher order centres have a more extensive catchment reflecting the role in the retail<br />
hierarchy.<br />
18. Within the hierarchy, retail centres compete with other centres of their own type and do<br />
not necessarily compete with upper or lower echelons. A mature hierarchy requires<br />
centres of all types, with a greater number of lower order centres.<br />
19. The design year for a development is a period ranging up to one year after completion of<br />
construction and commencement of trading. This allows settled trading patterns to have<br />
been established. Therefore, it is necessary to take a prudent account when preparing a<br />
Retail Impact Statement, of the period required for procurement of planning permission<br />
(including potential appeals), the period of construction and lettings. It is not necessary<br />
that this period falls within the term of a particularly Retail Strategy, particularly where<br />
there is a longer term strategic expansion envisaged for a particular centre.<br />
20. Estimation of trade diversion is an integral part of the assessment of retail impact and<br />
cumulative impact. It is necessary to show the diversions from each centre to the new<br />
proposal and to substantiate how this is calculated by reference to empirical evidence.<br />
Broad statements of diversions as a proportion of total spending within a catchment area<br />
or as a proportion of the growth in forecast spending generated do not give any<br />
meaningful guidance as to the diversion from individual centres.<br />
21. Cumulative impact refers to the impact of the proposed development along with one or<br />
more existing planning permissions for other retail development in the catchment area of<br />
the proposal. Here it is necessary to account for the joint impact of more than one new<br />
project and also to show the impact of the new proposals on each other.<br />
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