Untitled - Cork City Council

Cork Strategic Retail Study
5.13 Sales densities in the City Centre are well over €11,000 per sqm and for the suburbs
are well over €8,000 per sqm. These figures are perfectly plausible, given the rapid
growth of expenditure in recent years and the relatively slow expansion of retail
floorspace. Average sales densities in the ring towns are €6,000 per sqm and in the
outer metropolitan centres are almost €5,000 per sqm.
5.14 Average sales densities in the other county towns derived from the survey evidence
are a little under €2,000 per sqm. Whilst we would expect sales densities in these
towns to be somewhat lower than elsewhere in the retail hierarchy this is possibly an
under-estimate reflecting the fact that survey responses tend not to give these towns
as primary destinations for comparison shopping. In practice, we would expect new
development in these towns to be achieving about €3,500 per sqm.
Comparison Expenditure Projection to 2013 and 2020
5.15 We now estimate the growth of comparison expenditure from 2007 to the forecast
years of 2013 and 2020. For this purpose the calculation is carried out for all
comparison expenditure, including the retail warehouse element, since it is a matter for
future policy how the total comparison goods spending pot should be distributed
between retail warehouses and other outlets. The process is first to multiply the
projected population at the forecast years by per capita expenditure to give total 2013
and 2020 comparison expenditure by residents. (The derivation of base year and
future populations is set out in Appendix 1. Similarly, Appendix 4 deals with base year
and per-capita income and shows how per-capita figures are derived for individual
zones according to their socio-economic composition). These steps are carried out for
each of the five retail zones to give an idea of the geographical distribution of the
increase in locally-generated expenditure. It does not of course follow that these
increases should be accommodated in the zone in which they occur, but this is one
factor to take into account, as discussed in the Section dealing with strategy options.
5.16 Next, at the Study Area level, estimates of imported expenditure are added in. Imports
of expenditure from outside the Study Area are based on the shopper survey results
for Mahon Point and the City Centre together with broad estimates for the smaller
towns, cross-checked against tourist expenditure from Bord Failte. This gives a total
quantum of imported spending of €162.2 million p.a. It is assumed that these imports
will in future bear a constant relationship to residents’ expenditure, so that as residents’
expenditure increases, gains from outside increase pro-rata.
5.17 Next, allowance is made for increases in special forms of trading (SFT). This term
covers non-store retail expenditure – by mail order, by internet and at street markets.
Of these, internet trading is the main growth area and is expected to make inroads into
store –based expenditure over the next decade, a major determinant being the level of
broadband internet connections. The calculations of Appendix 4 - being based on the
ASI - include SFT and in fact there is little detailed evidence on special forms of trading
in the Republic. The assumption made here is that these forms of trading eat into
store-based expenditure by an amount that increases by 0.35% of residents’
expenditure in each year after the base year.
5.18 Finally, in order to obtain the expenditure available for new floorspace we deduct the
turnover of existing floorspace. This was estimated by the simple process of adding
imported expenditure to residents’ expenditure and deducting exports. Because
current sales densities are very high we do not assume any increase over time.
5.19 Table 5.4 shows that up to 2013 there will be €685 million available to support new
comparison floorspace. Up to 2020 there will be €2,269 million.
Roger Tym & Partners with Simon Clear & Associates
March 2008 34