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Appendix 4 : Per Capita Sales
Per-Capita Sales
This Appendix outlines the RTP retail model. It describes the estimation of retail sales at the
national level, divided between convenience goods and comparison goods, and the projection of
future levels. It sets out the methodology for moving to local estimates.
Base year retail sales
The starting point is an analysis of the Annual Services Inquiry (ASI) 1 in which details of firms’
sales are classified into categories which enable the following breakdown:
• Sales of convenience goods, which we define as food, non-alcoholic beverages, alcohol and
tobacco.
• Sales of comparison goods, which we define as all other retailed goods, with two exceptions.
Only half of the sale of spare parts and accessories for motor vehicles has been included,
since some of these sales are related to car servicing etc. Only one quarter of the sales
under the category 'Other goods and services' has been included. The bulk of sales here are
estimated to be services.
Using special tabulations from the CSO we can eliminate from the crude ASI data sales of alcohol
and tobacco that take part in bars rather than shops. We then make allowances for VAT and
eliminate sales to foreign tourists, using data from surveys of non-resident expenditure by Bord
Failte. (Estimates of tourist expenditure at the local level are added back in at a later stage) The
results, based on the 2003 ASI updated to 2004 using the Index of Retail Sales, are as follows:
Table A1: National sales of convenience and comparison goods, 2004
State total
€ million
State population
million
Sales per capita
€
Sales of convenience goods 12,043 4.076 2,955
Sales of comparison goods 11,170 4.076 2,741
Total sales of convenience goods were €12,043 million in 2004. Dividing by the population in that
year gives per capita sales of €2,955. Sales of comparison goods were €11,170 million, giving a
per-capita level of €2,741.
Although the figures are couched in terms of sales per person they include sales to businesses,
such as the following:
• sales of food and drink to hotels and restaurants by supermarkets, butchers, greengrocers
and the like.
• Sales to builders by DIY and hardware stores.
• Retail purchases by offices of stationary or office equipment.
These are important ingredients of retail turnover and it is necessary that they be included. The
implication of such inclusion is that there is a reasonably stable relationship between personal
and business expenditure in shops.
1 The ASI provides more comprehensive data on retail sales than the National Accounts. National Accounts
figures for Personal Consumption do not include sales to businesses, as pointed out below. In addition, personal
expenditure on materials for housing maintenance is deliberately understated and that on housing improvement is
eliminated. We do, however use the Personal Consumption data for future estimates, on the assumption that
there is a stable relationship between Personal Consumption and total retail sales
1