Untitled - Cork City Council

Appendix 1 : Population projections for retail zones
1. Introduction
This appendix sets out the methodology used in the projection of population to specified
years between 2002 and 2020, for defined retail zones in the City and County of Cork.
The methodology is based on a top-down allocation of target population growth for the
South West Region, as set out in directions to Regional and Local Authorities from the
DEHLG.
In overview, the steps in the projection process are as follows:
1. Planned regional population growth is allocated to the Counties of Cork and Kerry
and the City of Cork, in accordance with criteria set out in section 2 below and agreed
with the SWRA;
2. Population growth within the functional area of Cork County is divided between the
Metropolitan Area, Mallow Hub, remainder of the CASP Area and the remainder of
the County, in accordance with criteria set out in section 3 below;
3. Population growth in the defined retail zones (see main report for map) is calculated
by:
• Assuming that the population growth rate in a particular Electoral Division within
any given retail zone will accord with growth rates defined for the CASP zone
within which the ED lies (for those lying in the CASP area) or the growth rate for
the remainder of the County (for those lying outside the CASP area);
• Adding the resultant projected populations of all EDs in the given retail zone to
obtain a total for the said retail zone.
2. Allocate regional targets to Counties within the Region
Approach used
The overall approach that has been used to obtain results at county level, is as follows:
1. The growth potential of County Kerry is assessed, within the context of the overall
regional target, bearing in mind previous performance in terms of relative growth
rates and the provisions of the 2006 Tralee/Killarney Hub Settlement Local Area Plan
1 ;
2. The capacity of the City of Cork to absorb additional population is assessed, based
on the known amount of developable land using suitable development densities, and
the projected fall in the occupancy of existing households;
3. The remaining population is allocated to County Cork.
County Kerry
Details of the derivation of the Kerry population projection are contained in a paper
submitted to the South West Regional Authority. 2
It is assumed that Kerry will take the share of the population increase that it enjoyed in
the period 2002 to 2006. This was 18.1 per cent and would result, based on the change
projected for the period 2002 to 2020, in a population of 176,000 in 2020,
There is an on-going policy commitment to the development of Gateways and hubs, and
the predominance of Cork in the share of these is great. Cork had 88 per cent of the
1 Tralee/Killarney Hub Settlements Local Area Plan Planning Policy Unit, Kerry County Council,
December 2006
2 Distribution of target 2020 Regional Population in the South West Region Working paper produced
by Jonathan Blackwell for the South West Regional Authority – July 2007
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