Untitled - Cork City Council

Cork Strategic Retail Study
5 DEMAND ANALYSIS
Introduction
5.1 This Section provides an analysis of retail demand up to 2013 and then to 2020, split
between comparison goods and convenience goods. The starting points are the
market shares of each of the survey zones, previously defined in Section 4 and Figure
4.1, derived from the household survey. These reflect current shopping patterns. We
then apply these market shares to estimates of retail expenditure by residents in the
base year, 2007, giving an expenditure pattern for the five zones of the Study Area and
a total for the whole Study Area.
5.2 Figures for imported expenditure, based on the shopper survey and Bord Failte data,
are then added in to provide estimates of the turnover of each centre or area. These
turnover estimates are tested by deriving sales per square metre for each of the main
centres. The process is then shifted forward to 2013 and 2020 using data on future
population growth and increases in retail expenditure. All prices in this and subsequent
sections are at constant 2004 levels.
Comparison Expenditure Patterns
Base Year Expenditure
5.3 The next table sets out comparison expenditure for each zone in 2007. Populations are
as detailed in Appendix 1. Per-capita expenditure is derived from the RTP retail model,
described in Appendix 4. Multiplying the population of each zone by its average percapita
expenditure gives an estimate of total comparison goods spending in the Study
Area which is shown in Table 5.1. It should be noted that this also includes a small
element of turnover in shops which is generated by retail spending of local businesses
on goods such as office supplies and stationery – Appendix 4 provides the details.
Table 5.1 Expenditure By Residents On Comparison Goods, 2007 (€ million)
City and
Douglas
Rest of
Met.
Area
Ring North Far
west
Total %
Comparison
expenditure per
capita 3,268 3,489 3,183 2,956 3,052
Population 2007 139,454 139,335 106,991 45,533 57,914 489,227
Total comparison
expenditure (€ mill) 455.7 486.2 340.6 134.6 176.7 1,593.8 100.0
Total RWH
expenditure (€ mill) 68.4 80.2 41.5 23.8 9.1 222.9 14.0
Pure comparison
expenditure (€ mill) 387.3 406.0 299.1 110.8 167.6 1,370.9 86.0
Note: market shares are rounded; the total does not add to 100 due to this rounding.
5.4 Total comparison expenditure ranges from over €450 million in each of the two inner
zones down to €135 million in the North zone. Total expenditure for the entire Study
Area is €1,594 million
5.5 The market shares shown in the previous section apply to “pure” comparison goods
only (i.e. high street type shopping, but not retail warehouses) so it is necessary to
deduct an estimate for comparison goods expenditure in retail warehouses. In 2007
the Study Area had around 89,000 sq m of retail warehousing which, at an average
Roger Tym & Partners with Simon Clear & Associates
March 2008 31