Untitled - Cork City Council

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Cork Strategic Retail Study 5.13 Sales densities in the City Centre are well over €11,000 per sqm and for the suburbs are well over €8,000 per sqm. These figures are perfectly plausible, given the rapid growth of expenditure in recent years and the relatively slow expansion of retail floorspace. Average sales densities in the ring towns are €6,000 per sqm and in the outer metropolitan centres are almost €5,000 per sqm. 5.14 Average sales densities in the other county towns derived from the survey evidence are a little under €2,000 per sqm. Whilst we would expect sales densities in these towns to be somewhat lower than elsewhere in the retail hierarchy this is possibly an under-estimate reflecting the fact that survey responses tend not to give these towns as primary destinations for comparison shopping. In practice, we would expect new development in these towns to be achieving about €3,500 per sqm. Comparison Expenditure Projection to 2013 and 2020 5.15 We now estimate the growth of comparison expenditure from 2007 to the forecast years of 2013 and 2020. For this purpose the calculation is carried out for all comparison expenditure, including the retail warehouse element, since it is a matter for future policy how the total comparison goods spending pot should be distributed between retail warehouses and other outlets. The process is first to multiply the projected population at the forecast years by per capita expenditure to give total 2013 and 2020 comparison expenditure by residents. (The derivation of base year and future populations is set out in Appendix 1. Similarly, Appendix 4 deals with base year and per-capita income and shows how per-capita figures are derived for individual zones according to their socio-economic composition). These steps are carried out for each of the five retail zones to give an idea of the geographical distribution of the increase in locally-generated expenditure. It does not of course follow that these increases should be accommodated in the zone in which they occur, but this is one factor to take into account, as discussed in the Section dealing with strategy options. 5.16 Next, at the Study Area level, estimates of imported expenditure are added in. Imports of expenditure from outside the Study Area are based on the shopper survey results for Mahon Point and the City Centre together with broad estimates for the smaller towns, cross-checked against tourist expenditure from Bord Failte. This gives a total quantum of imported spending of €162.2 million p.a. It is assumed that these imports will in future bear a constant relationship to residents’ expenditure, so that as residents’ expenditure increases, gains from outside increase pro-rata. 5.17 Next, allowance is made for increases in special forms of trading (SFT). This term covers non-store retail expenditure – by mail order, by internet and at street markets. Of these, internet trading is the main growth area and is expected to make inroads into store –based expenditure over the next decade, a major determinant being the level of broadband internet connections. The calculations of Appendix 4 - being based on the ASI - include SFT and in fact there is little detailed evidence on special forms of trading in the Republic. The assumption made here is that these forms of trading eat into store-based expenditure by an amount that increases by 0.35% of residents’ expenditure in each year after the base year. 5.18 Finally, in order to obtain the expenditure available for new floorspace we deduct the turnover of existing floorspace. This was estimated by the simple process of adding imported expenditure to residents’ expenditure and deducting exports. Because current sales densities are very high we do not assume any increase over time. 5.19 Table 5.4 shows that up to 2013 there will be €685 million available to support new comparison floorspace. Up to 2020 there will be €2,269 million. Roger Tym & Partners with Simon Clear & Associates March 2008 34
Cork Strategic Retail Study Table 5.4 Potential Turnover For Comparison Goods to 2013 and 2020 Zone City and Douglas Rest of Met. Area Ring North Far West Total € mill € mill € mill € mill € mill € mill 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 Expenditure by residents (€ millions) 455.7 486.2 340.6 134.6 176.7 1,593.8 Imported expenditure (€ millions) 162.2 Total comparison expenditure (€ millions) 1,756.0 Increase in SFT (€ millions) 0.0 Sales from 2007 floorspace (€ millions) 1,756.0 Residual for new floorspace (€ millions) 0.0 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 Per capita expenditure (€) 4,210.8 4,496.1 4,101.5 3,808.9 3,932.4 4,208.0 Population 150,577 165,699 110,206 48,566 61,770 536,818 Expenditure by residents (€ millions) 634.0 745.0 452.0 185.0 242.9 2,258.9 Growth from 2007 (€ millions 201.6 292.2 126.1 57.0 74.8 751.8 Imported expenditure (€ millions) 229.9 Total comparison sales (€ millions) 2,488.9 Increase in SFT (€ millions) 47.4 Sales from 2007 floorspace (€ millions) 1,756.0 Residual for new floorspace (€ millions) 685.4 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 2020 Per capita expenditure (€) 6,251.4 6,675.0 6,089.2 5,654.7 5,838.1 6,262.9 Population 167,811 201,121 120,693 52,260 66,469 608,354 Expenditure by residents (€ millions) 1,049.1 1,342.5 734.9 295.5 388.1 3,810.0 Growth from 2007 (€ millions 593.3 856.3 394.4 160.9 211.3 2,216.3 Imported expenditure (€ millions) 387.8 Total comparison sales (€ millions) 4,197.9 Increase in SFT € millions) 173.4 Sales from 2007 floorspace (€ millions) 1,756.0 Residual for new floorspace (€ millions) 2,268.5 5.20 Because sales densities are already high in most centres, we do not make any allowance for increases to 2013 or 2020, although this position will need to be reviewed over time as new development is implemented. We recommend a review in 2012. Roger Tym & Partners with Simon Clear & Associates March 2008 35
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APPENDIX 4 Per-Capita Sales
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Appendix 4 : Per Capita Sales Futur
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APPENDIX 5 Guidance on Retail Impac
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Appendix 5 : Guidance on Retail Imp
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