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Climate Change and Energy to 2020 and onwards
Energy and emissions outlook
Efforts to reconcile society’s growing demand for energy while promoting efforts to
mitigate the risk of climate change pose a fundamental challenge.
World energy demand is predicted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) to grow
by more than 50 per cent in the next 25 years, with coal use rising more than any
other form of primary energy in absolute terms. In this projection, oil supply and
demand remain tight in the next decade, with a projected gap opening up in supply
and demand of 12.5 million barrels per day by 2015. And China and India are
likely to account for more than 40 per cent of that increased demand, and more than
60 per cent of the increase in carbon dioxide emissions to 2030. The likely scale of
technology deployment needed to manage or reduce these emissions is massive.
In the IEA’s Baseline scenario 1 energy outlook, global CO 2
emissions will increase
from 27 Gt CO 2
in 2005 to 42 Gt CO 2
by 2030. In contrast, in the IEA’s BLUE Map
scenario, emissions fall to 23 Gt CO 2
by 2030. The IEA estimates its BLUE Map
scenario is on a path towards CO 2
stabilization at 450 ppm (parts per million) CO 2
and would lower the risk that the global temperature increase would exceed a 2˚ C
rise. In order to satisfy energy demand whilst limiting GHG emissions under this
scenario, massive amounts of low-carbon generation capacity would need to be
added every year through to 2030 (see Figure 1).
Figure 1: Average annual power generation capacity additions in the 450 ppm stabilization case,
2013–2030 (Note: these additions are the annual totals that have to be added each year) 2
coal CCS
gas CCS
nuclear
22 x CCS* coal-fired plants (800 MW)
20 x CCS* gas-fired plants (500 MW)
30 x nuclear reactors (1000 MW)
* Carbon capture
and storage
† Combined heat
and power
hydropower
2 x ‘Three Gorges’ dams
biomass and waste
400 x CHP † plants (40 MW)
wind
17 000 x turbines (3 MW)
other renewables
0
10 20 30 40 50 60
additional power generation capacity (GW)
70 80
1 Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, IEA 2 World Energy Outlook 2007, IEA
2