The case for gas - Sabeur Mansar - Shell - IPIECA
The case for gas - Sabeur Mansar - Shell - IPIECA
The case for gas - Sabeur Mansar - Shell - IPIECA
Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
<strong>The</strong> Case <strong>for</strong> Gas<br />
Dr. <strong>Sabeur</strong> <strong>Mansar</strong><br />
VP Commercial,<br />
Qatar <strong>Shell</strong><br />
Use this area <strong>for</strong> cover image<br />
(Maximum (height height 6.5cm, 6.5cm width & width 8cm) 8cm)<br />
SHELL FLOATING LNG FACILITY<br />
December 12<br />
1
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY FUTURE<br />
RISING ENERGY DEMAND, SUPPLY PRESSURE, CLIMATE CHANGE<br />
9 billion<br />
people, 75%<br />
living in cities<br />
(2 billion<br />
more than<br />
today)<br />
2 billion<br />
vehicles<br />
(800 million<br />
at the moment)<br />
Many millions<br />
of people will<br />
rise out of<br />
energy poverty;<br />
with higher<br />
living standards<br />
energy use rises<br />
Energy demand<br />
could double<br />
from its level<br />
in 2000..<br />
.. while CO 2<br />
emissions must be<br />
half today’s to<br />
avoid serious<br />
climate change<br />
Twice as<br />
efficient, using<br />
half the energy<br />
to produce each<br />
dollar of wealth<br />
3 times more<br />
energy from<br />
renewable<br />
sources<br />
Copyright Copyright of Royal Dutch of Royal <strong>Shell</strong> Dutch plc <strong>Shell</strong> plc Date 01/12/2012<br />
2
GLOBAL ENERGY MIX TO 2050<br />
Mln Boe/d<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
Oil<br />
Gas<br />
<strong>Shell</strong> Activities<br />
100<br />
Biomass<br />
Wind<br />
Coal<br />
Nuclear<br />
Solar<br />
0<br />
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2050<br />
(<strong>Shell</strong> estimates)<br />
Other Renewables<br />
FOSSIL FUELS WILL SUPPLY MORE THAN 60% OF GLOBAL ENERGY IN 2050<br />
Copyright Copyright of Royal Dutch of Royal <strong>Shell</strong> Dutch plc <strong>Shell</strong> plc Date 01/12/2012<br />
3
NATURAL GAS OUTLOOK<br />
NATURAL GAS DEMAND GROWTH<br />
ATTRACTIVE ECONOMICS FOR<br />
ELECTRICITY PRODUCERS<br />
BCM<br />
3,500<br />
Wind Offshore (75 km)<br />
3,000<br />
Wind Offshore (25km)<br />
2,500<br />
Wind Onshore<br />
2,000<br />
1990 2000 2010<br />
Nuclear<br />
Coal<br />
NATURAL GAS ADVANTAGE: EXAMPLE CCGT<br />
CCGT<br />
0 100 200 300<br />
USD/MWh<br />
Abundant global <strong>gas</strong> resources ~250 years<br />
reserves at current production<br />
CCGT: <strong>gas</strong>-fired power compared to coal:<br />
• 30% more energy efficient<br />
• Emit around half the CO2<br />
• CCS retrofit at similar cost per MWh<br />
CAPITAL COST<br />
TOTAL COSTS<br />
• Better complement to renewable energy<br />
Copyright of Royal Dutch <strong>Shell</strong> plc Date 01/12/2012<br />
CCGT: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine<br />
Total Cost = Capital + Fuel + Operating<br />
Source: DECC (Mott MacDonald) June 2010<br />
4
Three A’s<br />
SHELL GAS MESSAGES
THE CASE FOR GAS<br />
ABUNDANT ACCEPTABLE AFFORDABLE<br />
North America<br />
Abundant global <strong>gas</strong><br />
resources, growing and<br />
geographically diverse<br />
Conventional and<br />
unconventional recoverable<br />
<strong>gas</strong> resources can supply<br />
>250 years of current global<br />
<strong>gas</strong> production<br />
South America<br />
Europe<br />
Africa<br />
Middle East<br />
Eurasia<br />
Conventional Gas Resources<br />
Unconventional Gas Resources<br />
Asia Pacific<br />
CCGT: <strong>gas</strong>-fired power<br />
compared to coal:<br />
• 30% more energy<br />
efficient<br />
• Emit around half the CO2<br />
• CCS retrofit at similar<br />
cost per MWh<br />
• Better complement to<br />
wind power<br />
Replacing coal with <strong>gas</strong> <strong>for</strong><br />
electricity generation is the<br />
cheapest and fastest way to<br />
meet CO2 reduction targets<br />
CCGT cheapest to build<br />
Similar total cost to coal<br />
and nuclear<br />
Wind Offshore (75 km)<br />
Wind Offshore (25km)<br />
Wind Onshore<br />
Nuclear<br />
Coal<br />
CCGT<br />
0 100 200 300 USD/MWh<br />
CAPITAL COST<br />
TOTAL COSTS<br />
NATURAL GAS: A DESTINATION FUEL<br />
Source: IEA World Energy Outlook,<br />
WoodMackenzie, <strong>Shell</strong> Interpretation<br />
CCS: Carbon Capture & Storage<br />
CCGT: Combined Cycle Gas Turbine<br />
Total Cost = Capital + Fuel + Operating<br />
Copyright of Royal Dutch <strong>Shell</strong> plc Date 01/12/2012<br />
Source: DECC (Mott MacDonald) June 2010<br />
6
GAS AS SUPPORT FOR RENEWABLES<br />
AVAILABILITY OF UK WIND GENERATION<br />
For three consecutive very cold days (20 th -<br />
22 Dec) the wind load factor averaged 3%<br />
2 Nov 9 Nov 16 Nov 23 Nov 30 Nov 07 Dec 14 Dec 21 Dec 28 Dec 4 Jan 11 Jan 18 Jan 25 Jan 1 Feb<br />
16<br />
14<br />
12<br />
10<br />
8<br />
6<br />
4<br />
2<br />
0<br />
-2<br />
-4<br />
-6<br />
Outturn<br />
Temperature<br />
Wind load<br />
factor<br />
Note: <strong>The</strong> wind<br />
statistics do not<br />
include all UK wind<br />
generation - only<br />
what is metered<br />
2010 2011<br />
Gas is the natural complement to intermittent renewable energy<br />
<strong>The</strong>re is a strong interdependency between <strong>gas</strong> and renewable energy<br />
due to its flexibility, its role as back-up and as storage<br />
Copyright of Royal Dutch <strong>Shell</strong> plc Date 01/12/2012<br />
Source: BM Reports, <strong>Shell</strong> Analysis<br />
7
SHELL<br />
AND GTL
GTL: FROM LABORATORY TO WORLD-SCALE<br />
1973<br />
LABORATORY<br />
Amsterdam<br />
grams/d<br />
1983<br />
PILOT PLANT<br />
Amsterdam<br />
3 bbl/d<br />
1993<br />
COMMERCIAL PLANT<br />
Bintulu<br />
14700 bbl/d<br />
TODAY<br />
QATAR PEARL GTL<br />
140,000 bbl/d<br />
SHELL: 30+ YEARS GTL DEVELOPMENT<br />
Copyright of Royal Dutch <strong>Shell</strong> plc Date 01/12/2012<br />
9
OPPORTUNITY FOR A GAS REVOLUTION<br />
Benefits of “Golden age of Gas” possible with:<br />
Level playing field <strong>for</strong> <strong>gas</strong><br />
Robust Emissions Trading Scheme<br />
Government support <strong>for</strong> CCS projects<br />
Adequate regulation of tight and shale <strong>gas</strong><br />
Copyright of Royal <strong>Shell</strong> Global Dutch <strong>Shell</strong> Solutions plc International Date 01/12/2012 B.V.<br />
10
THANK YOU
Change language