University of Oslo Workshops June 29-30 Conference July 1-3 ...

3rd Day, Keynote Presentation 8.30-9.30, July 3, 2010
Time Activities
8.00-16.00 Registration on Entrance floor
08.30-09.30 Keynote Presentation (AK K.H. Aula)
Chair: Prof. Constantinos Papanastasiou
Prof. Jan-Eric Gustafsson,
University of Gothenburg
Causal Inference in International Comparative
Research on Student Achievement: Methodological
Challenges and Developments
Summary
Comparative research on student achievement in different educational
systems has during the last couple of decades made great progress in
developing and implementing assessments of knowledge and skills in
different domains. Through employing advanced measurement and sampling
techniques, surveys make it possible to make confident statements both
about differences in level of achievement between educational systems and
about trend over time within educational systems. However, comparatively
less progress has been made in developing theories and models which can
explain the outcomes. Thus, in spite of the fact that one aim of the
international studies has been to identify cause and effect relations, it
frequently has proven difficult to make credible inferences about causality.
One possible reason for this is that the data necessary for such inferences is
lacking. Another possible reason is that the cross-sectional survey designs
typically employed do not protect against different kinds of threats to valid
causal inference. The main aim of the presentation is to identify the nature of
these threats, and to discuss ways to protect against them. First, some
examples of problematic inferences are presented. Alternative designs and
analytical methods, and their strengths and weaknesses, are then discussed.
Among these are methods that rely on change observed over time in
aggregated trend data. Another approach relies on multilevel techniques to
analyze relations between units at different levels of observation and
aggregation. Yet another approach is estimation by instrumental variables,
which frequently is employed in economic research but has so far only
rarely been used within the field of education. It is concluded that more
appropriate data and more sophisticated analytical techniques will support
development of credible causal inference about determinants of student
achievement.
09.30-10.00 Coffee break
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