Sample NMS Reference Report by YONTCHANG G - University of ...

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Difference in the length of growing season as experienced by bold and latest farmers Bold farmers Latest farmers Year Day_number Date Day_number Date Difference 1950 65 5-Mar 155 3-Jun 90 1951 114 23-Apr 160 8-Jun 46 1952 71 11-Mar 153 1-Jun 82 1953 84 24-Mar 159 7-Jun 75 1954 65 5-Mar 159 7-Jun 94 1955 61 1-Mar 166 14-Jun 105 1956 70 10-Mar 154 2-Jun 84 1957 63 3-Mar 161 9-Jun 98 1958 79 19-Mar 169 17-Jun 90 1959 76 16-Mar 159 7-Jun 83 1960 67 7-Mar 171 19-Jun 104 1961 83 23-Mar 181 29-Jun 98 1962 74 14-Mar 159 7-Jun 85 1963 96 5-Apr 156 4-Jun 60 1964 68 8-Mar 156 4-Jun 88 1965 71 11-Mar 161 9-Jun 90 1966 67 7-Mar 157 5-Jun 90 1967 103 12-Apr 168 16-Jun 65 1968 66 6-Mar 161 9-Jun 95 1969 63 3-Mar 174 22-Jun 111 1970 78 18-Mar 177 25-Jun 99 1971 78 18-Mar 165 13-Jun 87 1972 89 29-Mar 154 2-Jun 65 1973 78 18-Mar 153 1-Jun 75 1974 72 12-Mar 181 29-Jun 109 1975 68 8-Mar 159 7-Jun 91 1976 93 2-Apr 157 5-Jun 64 1977 89 29-Mar 164 12-Jun 75 1978 96 5-Apr 153 1-Jun 57 1979 63 3-Mar 153 1-Jun 90 1980 77 17-Mar 154 2-Jun 77 1981 78 18-Mar 160 8-Jun 82 1982 70 10-Mar 180 28-Jun 110 1983 88 28-Mar 174 22-Jun 86 1984 70 10-Mar 173 21-Jun 103 1985 75 15-Mar 165 13-Jun 90 1986 89 29-Mar 156 4-Jun 67 1987 67 7-Mar 178 26-Jun 111 1988 68 8-Mar 169 17-Jun 101 1989 80 20-Mar 164 12-Jun 84 1990 115 24-Apr 154 2-Jun 39 1991 99 8-Apr 173 21-Jun 74 1992 68 8-Mar 165 13-Jun 97 1993 69 9-Mar 155 3-Jun 86 1994 83 23-Mar 174 22-Jun 91 1995 77 17-Mar 157 5-Jun 80 1996 61 1-Mar 153 1-Jun 92 1997 85 25-Mar 168 16-Jun 83 1998 97 6-Apr 167 15-Jun 70 1999 88 28-Mar 170 18-Jun 82 2000 82 22-Mar 157 5-Jun 75 20
2001 61 1-Mar 155 3-Jun 94 2002 61 1-Mar 167 15-Jun 106 2003 89 29-Mar 159 7-Jun 70 2004 85 25-Mar 161 9-Jun 76 2005 71 11-Mar 157 5-Jun 86 2006 75 15-Mar 166 14-Jun 91 Minimum Mean Range Std.deviation Maximum 57 years 39 days 85.053 days 72 days 15.461 days 111 days 5.5weeks 12weeks = 3months 10weeks 2weeks 16weeks = 4 months How often will the bold farmer have a longer growing season than the latest farmer? This question is answered by quantifying how often the season was longer for a bold farmer than for a latest farmer (conditional on differences being greater than zero). It will be found that the bold farmer who sows earlier in the season will always have the benefit of a longer season, which is a full 100% of the time. Talking about the length of the growing season, when we subtract starting date (as day number) of the “latest” farmer from that of the “bold” farmer we get 57 non-zero values, indicating that the former experienced a longer growing season every single year. On average his season was 85 days longer, at last 39 days longer and at most 111days longer, with a standard deviation of about 15.5 days. How far is the sowing season of the bold farmer compared to the occurrence of the flooding period? The maximum or latest sowing date for bold farmer is day 115 (24.April). Earliest flooding occurrence date is day 214 (1.August) according to our given definition. So, the bold strategy is at least 99 days (almost 3 months) before the first flooding strike which is almost 2.5 weeks (19 days) more variable, and completely off after 3 rd November (day 308). 21
Page 1 and 2: REPORT ON SOWING PERIOD AND FLOODIN
Page 3 and 4: BACKGROUND: 1). Extreme climate eve
Page 5 and 6: C. METHODOLOGY: The methods used to
Page 7 and 8: E. RESULTS: These results describe
Page 9 and 10: Graph (ii): Total rainfall in Augus
Page 11 and 12: Graph (iii): Yearly totals rainfall
Page 13 and 14: 4. Text boxes showing the chance (p
Page 15 and 16: The risk of crop failure during wee
Page 17 and 18: Graph (v): Boxplots showing the dis
Page 22 and 23: F. IMPLICATIONS: Some conclusions f
Page 24 and 25: RAINY DAYS PLOT OF ANNUAL NUMBER OF
Page 26 and 27: Table1: Summary values of monthly r
Page 28 and 29: Appendix: Daily data for Douala, Ca
Page 30: Day numbers in the year Month: Jan

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