Sample NMS Reference Report by YONTCHANG G - University of ...

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F. IMPLICATIONS: Some conclusions for the client (Ministry of agriculture) based on these summaries and risks calculations. At last, we could say the highest true risk of experiencing flood with crop failure is observed once every 3.5 years during the third week of August. There is little difference between weeks 1 and 4 with a chance of flooding with crop disruption every 5 years. The smallest risk is observed in week 2 with a 6.5 years return period. 1. The “sowing strategy” definition that I would recommend to a farmer The “sowing strategy” definition that I would recommend to a farmer is the bold method. 2. The advantages The advantages could be: The greatest (range =54 days) and variable (s.d. =13 days) spread of sowing dates. The possibility to harvest more than one type of crops within this long sowing period. The possibility of choosing the accurate crop to match the expected season length, with higher yield. A crop growing during a shorter season (3 months) can be sow, with (57/57) 100 % risk or zero risk not to meet a long dry spell. As the threshold rainfall for sowing is high (40 mm), chance of crop failure is low even if there is long dry spell later. Hence, by sowing earlier, the risk of early crop failure due to flood could be greatly reduced even in low lands because after three months, the growing stage enables more plants‟ maturity to face flooding events and the farmer can gain in confidence in the whole system of recommendations. 3. The disadvantages The disadvantages could be: ‣ Even with a better seasonal forecast, there still be at least once every three (3) years a chance of crop destruction in Douala, during the peak period (July, August, and September) of rainfall when the soil is saturated, especially in August. ‣ The flooding event in low land areas has a range of 65 days (about 2 months). There is highest interannual variability i.e. spread in flooding dates with a variability of 32 days (about 4.5 weeks mainly within the month of August). So maximum awareness must be taken around day 221(8.August) and also the farmer needs to keep himself in state of preparedness for this period so as to take action of the 1 st occasion to protect or to secure the crop). That is why I strongly recommend to the farmers dwelling in Douala and surrounding: “Please! Sow earlier!”. 22
G.APPENDICES: Appendix A: References and sources documentation Instat Climatic Guide Chapters 4-7 Roger Stern, Derk Rijks, Ian Dale, Joan Knock ed. January 2006 Confidence and significance: Key Concepts of Inferential Statistics, the University of Reading Statistical Services Centre, February 2006 Climatic e-books (www.reading.ac.uk/ssc ) CAST for SADC ( www.ssc.rdg.ac.uk/sadc-training-pack/) Appendix: Daily data for Douala, Cameroon 1950-2006 Fig. 1.a Time series plot of annual rainfall totals and number of rainy days at Douala, Cameroon, from 1950 to 2006. The dotted horizontal lines show one and two standard deviations above and below the mean. 23
Page 1 and 2: REPORT ON SOWING PERIOD AND FLOODIN
Page 3 and 4: BACKGROUND: 1). Extreme climate eve
Page 5 and 6: C. METHODOLOGY: The methods used to
Page 7 and 8: E. RESULTS: These results describe
Page 9 and 10: Graph (ii): Total rainfall in Augus
Page 11 and 12: Graph (iii): Yearly totals rainfall
Page 13 and 14: 4. Text boxes showing the chance (p
Page 15 and 16: The risk of crop failure during wee
Page 17 and 18: Graph (v): Boxplots showing the dis
Page 20 and 21: Difference in the length of growing
Page 24 and 25: RAINY DAYS PLOT OF ANNUAL NUMBER OF
Page 26 and 27: Table1: Summary values of monthly r
Page 28 and 29: Appendix: Daily data for Douala, Ca
Page 30: Day numbers in the year Month: Jan

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