Sample NMS Reference Report by YONTCHANG G - University of ...

F. IMPLICATIONS:
Some conclusions for the client (Ministry of agriculture) based on these
summaries and risks calculations.
At last, we could say the highest true risk of experiencing flood with crop failure is observed once
every 3.5 years during the third week of August. There is little difference between weeks 1 and 4 with
a chance of flooding with crop disruption every 5 years. The smallest risk is observed in week 2 with a
6.5 years return period.
1. The “sowing strategy” definition that I would recommend to a farmer
The “sowing strategy” definition that I would recommend to a farmer is the bold method.
2. The advantages
The advantages could be:
The greatest (range =54 days) and variable (s.d. =13 days) spread of sowing dates.
The possibility to harvest more than one type of crops within this long sowing period.
The possibility of choosing the accurate crop to match the expected season length, with
higher yield.
A crop growing during a shorter season (3 months) can be sow, with (57/57) 100 % risk
or zero risk not to meet a long dry spell.
As the threshold rainfall for sowing is high (40 mm), chance of crop failure is low even
if there is long dry spell later.
Hence, by sowing earlier, the risk of early crop failure due to flood could be greatly
reduced even in low lands because after three months, the growing stage enables more
plants‟ maturity to face flooding events and the farmer can gain in confidence in the
whole system of recommendations.
3. The disadvantages
The disadvantages could be:
‣ Even with a better seasonal forecast, there still be at least once every three (3)
years a chance of crop destruction in Douala, during the peak period (July,
August, and September) of rainfall when the soil is saturated, especially in
August.
‣ The flooding event in low land areas has a range of 65 days (about 2 months).
There is highest interannual variability i.e. spread in flooding dates with a
variability of 32 days (about 4.5 weeks mainly within the month of August). So
maximum awareness must be taken around day 221(8.August) and also the
farmer needs to keep himself in state of preparedness for this period so as to
take action of the 1 st occasion to protect or to secure the crop). That is why I
strongly recommend to the farmers dwelling in Douala and surrounding:
“Please! Sow earlier!”.
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