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Did the Swiss Economy Really Stagnate in the 1990s, and Is ...

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21<br />

labor costs <strong>in</strong> France <strong>and</strong> Germany (<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g all social levies as well as <strong>in</strong>direct costs such as<br />

those connected with hir<strong>in</strong>g <strong>and</strong> fir<strong>in</strong>g) have resulted <strong>in</strong> capital be<strong>in</strong>g substituted for labor on a<br />

massive scale. It is possible that <strong>the</strong>se high labor costs have also brought about a high<br />

"<strong>in</strong>tensity level" of <strong>the</strong> work effort.<br />

If this is so, it would mean - somewhat ironically or sadly - that once a resident has<br />

managed to break <strong>in</strong>to France’s or Germany’s "magical circle" made up of those who have a<br />

job (<strong>the</strong> "<strong>in</strong>siders"), that person will f<strong>in</strong>d herself/himself not only surrounded (burdened?) by a<br />

lot of productive equipment, but she/he may also have to work very hard. As a result, that person<br />

may <strong>the</strong>n - underst<strong>and</strong>ably - start yearn<strong>in</strong>g for as short a work-week <strong>and</strong> as long an annual<br />

vacation period as possible, while also - just as underst<strong>and</strong>ably - long<strong>in</strong>g for (early) retirement...<br />

2.6 Back to Switzerl<strong>and</strong><br />

Table 5 confirms <strong>the</strong> hypo<strong>the</strong>sis or suspicion that Switzerl<strong>and</strong>’s high per capita GDP is<br />

largely <strong>the</strong> result of a high <strong>in</strong>put of labor: per person employed, <strong>the</strong> <strong>Swiss</strong> <strong>in</strong>dex is exactly<br />

equal to <strong>the</strong> OECD average (100) <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong> country ranks hardly higher on <strong>the</strong> output-per-hourworked<br />

scale (103).<br />

Before draw<strong>in</strong>g some conclusions from <strong>the</strong>se f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs, a fur<strong>the</strong>r word of caution is<br />

necessary. The <strong>in</strong>dices for GDP per person employed <strong>and</strong> per hour worked rest on ra<strong>the</strong>r<br />

shaky statistical foundations <strong>and</strong> <strong>the</strong>y are <strong>the</strong>refore ra<strong>the</strong>r fragile. To illustrate just how<br />

fragile, here are <strong>the</strong> GDP-per-hour-worked <strong>in</strong>dices for <strong>the</strong> four countries for which <strong>the</strong>re are<br />

direct estimates for <strong>the</strong> gr<strong>and</strong> total of hours worked, but for which this gr<strong>and</strong> total can also be<br />

calculated <strong>in</strong>directly <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> same manner as for <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r 12 countries:<br />

___________________________________________________________________________<br />

1996 GDP at PPP per hour worked (OECD=100) us<strong>in</strong>g<br />

Direct estimates Indirect estimates<br />

F<strong>in</strong>l<strong>and</strong> 103 97<br />

Germany 122 117<br />

Norway 140 141<br />

Switzerl<strong>and</strong> 103 112<br />

___________________________________________________________________________<br />

As it happens, <strong>the</strong> difference is largest <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> case of Switzerl<strong>and</strong>. This is probably because<br />

<strong>the</strong> direct estimate of total hours worked is more encompass<strong>in</strong>g, <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> case of Switzerl<strong>and</strong>,<br />

than <strong>the</strong> data underly<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>direct estimate.<br />

Our own feel<strong>in</strong>g - for what it’s worth - is that Switzerl<strong>and</strong> will probably come <strong>in</strong> at a level<br />

higher than 103 (but not necessarily as high as 112) if <strong>and</strong> when comparable figures for total<br />

hours works become available for a larger number of countries.<br />

Be that as it may, one f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>g about Switzerl<strong>and</strong> seems quite robust. Ie. its oh-so-high<br />

<strong>in</strong>come or, if one prefers, its fabled affluence is noth<strong>in</strong>g but a myth if due account is taken of<br />

<strong>the</strong> amount of work put <strong>in</strong> by its people. In o<strong>the</strong>r words, <strong>the</strong>re is wealth <strong>and</strong> wealth: a high<br />

will of course be highly "productive", given <strong>the</strong> way productivity is def<strong>in</strong>ed here (ie. real value added divided by<br />

work hours).

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