Evaluation of the Australian Wage Subsidy Special Youth ...

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6.3 Discussion............................................................................................................. 219 7: Study 5 Sensitivity analysis ........................................................................................ 222 7.1 Sensitivity of Heckman specification ................................................................... 222 7.1.1 Potential heteroskedasticity ................................................................... 222 7.1.2 Exclusion restriction in the Heckman model......................................... 231 7.2 Varying the Propensity Score specification, effects on the match........................ 236 7.2.1 Propensity score matching and the effect of excluding CEP referrals... 236 7.2.2 Propensity score matching and the effect of reduced specification....... 243 7.2.3 Further discussion and conclusions ................................................................... 246 8: Summary and Conclusions ......................................................................................... 253 Appendix 1 Data appendix.............................................................................................. 260 Table 1 Description of the data....................................................................... 260 Appendix 2 Tables .......................................................................................................... 263 Bibliography ................................................................................................................... 302 x
List of Tables and Figures Figure 1.1: Labour market equilibrium with wage subsidy..................................... 11 Figure 1.2 Employment effect of the subsidy,......................................................... 16 Table 1.3 Brief overview of recent European wage subsidy evidence considered.. 27 Table 2.1 Private Sector Jobstart subsidy weekly rates 1985-1987......................... 37 Table 2.2 Stromback and Dockery (2000) Raw employment outcomes after Jobstart .................................................................................................................................. 40 Table 2.3 Average junior award rates 1977 to 1981................................................ 46 Table 2.4 SYETP rates, period and target group/eligibility criteria 1976-December 1985.......................................................................................................................... 50 Table 2.5 Key SYETP provisions in 1983/84.......................................................... 55 Table 2.6 SYETP annual expenditure and placements1976/77-1985/86 ................ 58 Table 2.7 Active steps to find work by youths looking for work in July 1980 ....... 59 Table 2.8 Age distribution for CES registrants in NSW 1985-1986 ....................... 62 Table 2.9 Unemployment rate Australia 1981-1990, seasonally adjusted............... 63 Table 2.10 Average duration of unemployment (number of weeks) by age, August 1981-1990 ................................................................................................................ 64 Table 2.11 Unemployment, labour force participation and employment rates, teenagers and total working age population March 1983 and March 1988............. 66 Table 2.12 Value of unemployment benefits to youths 1983-1987......................... 67 Table 2.13 Smith (1984b) summary of estimates of SYETP................................... 71 Table 2.14 Distribution of SYETP commencements, by age 1980-81.................... 73 Table 2.15 Distribution of SYETP commencements, by age and sex 1980-81....... 74 Table 2.16 Completion of SYETP placement.......................................................... 76 Table 2.17 State usage of programmes in 1980/81.................................................. 77 Table 2.18 Baker (1984) Post-programme full-time employment outcome............ 83 Table 2.19 Baker (1984) Estimated probabilities of labour market outcomes for participants from the model of employment............................................................ 84 Table 2.20 Rao and Jones (1986) Estimated percent post-programme full-time continuous employment chances 1981-1983........................................................... 86 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Estimated marginal effect of SYETP on employment from bivariate probit modelling............................................................................... 89 Table 3.1, Part A Employment equation from bivariate probit ............................. 105 Table 3.1 Part B Selection/participation equation of the bivariate probit.............. 108 Table 4.1 Difference between treatment group and comparison group................. 114 Table 4.2 Probit used to estimate propensity score for propensity score matching124 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estimated propensity score prior to matching............... 129 Figure 4.4 Kernel Density of propensity scores distribution for Treated SYETP and untreated................................................................................................................. 129 Table 4.5 Summary statistics for distribution of propensity scores....................... 131 Table 4.6 Matching results, Single nearest neighbour with replacement, within caliper..................................................................................................................... 135 Table 4.7 Matching results, All-Within- caliper/Radius with replacement........... 141 Table 4.8 Employment effects of Heckman versus PSM ...................................... 142 Table 5.1 Sample Reduction for ALS List sample ................................................ 153 xi
Page 1: i Evaluation of the Australian Wage
Page 5 and 6: v Declaration I hereby declare that
Page 7 and 8: in method and assumptions. The orth
Page 9: 3.3 Data and variables used for est
Page 13 and 14: Table A2.0b Univariate Probit of pa
Page 15 and 16: xv Abstract The job subsidy Special
Page 17 and 18: 1 1: Wage subsidy theory and evalua
Page 19 and 20: 3 programs of providing benefits an
Page 21 and 22: 5 The empirical methods used for th
Page 23 and 24: 7 how the outcomes from these metho
Page 25 and 26: 9 employment effect could be mainly
Page 27 and 28: 11 Real Wage Employment Figure 1.1:
Page 29 and 30: 13 are two types of unemployment, s
Page 31 and 32: 15 Real wages are predetermined whe
Page 33 and 34: 17 Vella (1998), Heckman, Lalonde a
Page 35 and 36: 19 Each individual has two potentia
Page 37 and 38: 21 this case, if there was no data
Page 39 and 40: 23 correlation for the error of the
Page 41 and 42: 25 Table 1.3 collects together some
Page 43 and 44: 27 Table 1.3 Brief overview of rece
Page 45 and 46: 29 necessarily brief. Then, the evi
Page 47 and 48: 31 limited applications, such as fo
Page 49 and 50: 33 who participated. It was conclud
Page 51 and 52: 35 term unemployed for over 12 of t
Page 53 and 54: 37 importance of the subsidy second
Page 55 and 56: 39 differences in characteristics t
Page 57 and 58: 41 Matching methods are theoretical
Page 59 and 60: 43 2.2 SYETP implementation As SYET
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45 In July1978, the subsidy was cal
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47 In January 1979, variations were
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49 benefits were paid at a slightly
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51 2.2.3 SYETP operation Earlier re
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53 ceiling constraints’ applied t
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55 Award Conditions for employment
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57 Harris (2001) claims that during
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59 display boards listed details of
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61 restriction was used. If there w
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63 to the end of the 1980’s. An o
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65 for teens overall had risen, emp
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67 for Australia using data from th
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69 training, can provide a form of
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71 employer survey estimates were t
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73 provisions for SYETP and extende
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75 withdrawals occurred at similar
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77 Table 2.17 State usage of progra
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79 2.3.1 Stretton (1982, 1984) 53 S
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81 Stretton attributed the success
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83 included in the employment model
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85 completers. Their argument was t
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87 was an issue for the data. Unlik
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89 Table 2.21 Richardson (1998) Est
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91 2.3.5 General discussion Some ge
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93 Controlling for differences in i
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95 taken by a previous researcher a
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97 If employability is assumed to b
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99 suitability of the underlying as
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101 Heckman, Lalonde and Smith (199
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103 effect on employment relative t
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105 Table 3.1, Part A Employment eq
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107 (-1.80) (-1.80) Tradesperson -0
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109 duration of Pre-June 1984 unemp
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111 4: Study 2 Propensity score mat
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113 Propensity score matching provi
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115 4.2 Propensity score matching m
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117 covariates that influence the a
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119 (7) E(Y c | D=1) = E P(X) {E[Y
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121 For CIA to be plausible, a ‘r
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123 employment and programme partic
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Highest qualification in 1984 (1.56
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127 4.6 Distribution of the propens
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129 Figure 4.3 Histograms of estima
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131 Table 4.5 Summary statistics fo
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133 Table 4.5, that the variance of
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135 Table 4.6 Matching results, Sin
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137 Table 6.3 using Swedish data wi
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139 matching is the ability to weed
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141 Table 4.7 Matching results, All
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143 the unobserved component. If th
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145 5: Study 3 Attrition and non-re
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147 occur by design, because the mi
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149 (1990) extended and improved th
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151 (10) A* = δ 0 + δ 1 x +δ 2 z
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153 again from September to Novembe
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155 5.5.2 Univariate examination of
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157 lower, the job lengths are only
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159 Work limited by health 1984 0.1
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161 The characteristics of the SYET
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163 para-professional Mother not em
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165 comparison group where the shar
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167 5.5.4 Attrition: natural attrit
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169 both sources that impose change
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171 para-professional Father not em
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173 work in later sections, this su
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175 Table 5.6: Effect of selection/
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177 appropriate to discard these fr
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179 Australia/Tasmania. Amongst tho
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181 Table 5.5a Summary statistics b
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183 5.6.1.2 Effects of the non-resp
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185 3 years + -0.35 -0.47 -0.34 -0.
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187 5.7 Multivariate analysis of ef
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189 proportion of time spent unempl
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191 post-school qualification, and
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193 Generally, those variables foun
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195 longj0 Longest job by 1984 < 1
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197 adopted in order to maintain co
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199 6: Study 4 Weighting to counter
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201 Table 6.1, part A Employment eq
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203 Methodist 0.133 0.261 (0.77) (1
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205 CEP referrals 1984 0.143* 0.128
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207 6.2 Results of weighting the PS
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209 The distribution of the propens
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211 Table 6.3 Weighted probit used
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213 (0.76) Tradesperson mtrad 0.20
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215 Table 6.5 Summary statistics fo
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217 Table 6.7 Matching results, sin
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219 6.3 Discussion The comparison o
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221 the selection into SYETP and th
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223 Heteroskedasticity is a violati
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225 Table 7.1, Part A Employment eq
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227 (1.26) (1.28) (1.16) Mothers oc
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229 Other Post-School qualification
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231 7.1.2 Exclusion restriction in
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233 Finally, the third panel of new
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235 Table 7.2 summary of changes to
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237 schooling that was statisticall
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239 (0.25) (0.21) 3 years + -0.50 -
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241 Table 7.4 Summary of distributi
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243 7.2.2 Propensity score matching
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245 original model, but with the pe
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247 maintained, then the Heckman bi
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249 Table 7.6 Weighted Probit used
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251 Table 7.7 Summary of distributi
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253 8: Summary and Conclusions The
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255 over which it ran, the review m
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257 the Heckman and PSM methods wer
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259 posited that that such sensitiv
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261 Description Derivation and deta
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Appendix 2 Tables 263
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2 years 0.28 0.07 (1.70) (1.70) 3 y
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267 Table A2.0b Univariate Probit o
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269 Religion brought up in (1.52) (
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271 hq9_84 Year 9 of school or less
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273 Table A2.1 Continued Means and
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275 mtrad Tradesperson 0.04 0.04 0.
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277 Year 9 of school or less -0.19
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279 Table A2.3 Probit of SYETP part
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281 (0.22) (0.44) (0.67) (0.89) Tra
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283 Table A2.5a Univariate probit f
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285 Manager/professional/para-profe
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3 years + -0.04 (2.13)* CEP referra
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289 Table A2.6 Part A Employment eq
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291 Table A2.6 Part B Selection/par
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301
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BLMR Bureau of Labour Market Resear
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Fay, R.G. (1996) "Enhancing the eff
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Heckman J.J. and Smith, J. A. (1998
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Lewis, H.G. (1963) "Unionism and re
Page 327 and 328:
Quandt, R. (1972) "A new approach t
Page 329 and 330:
Stromback, M. and Dockery, A. (2000
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