The Western Condition - St Antony's College - University of Oxford

The Western Condition: Turkey, the US and the EU in the New Middle East
government and most avenues for political dialogue shut has also helped these hardliners gain
legitimacy in the eyes of a conflict weary Kurdish population. As a result, Turkey has witnessed a
sharp escalation in violent attacks by the PKK against both government and civilian targets, in
rural as well as urban areas. This has in turn pushed the AKP further towards militarism and
nationalism, creating a vicious cycle of violence and mounting societal tensions between Turks
and Kurds across the country. 126 Between the parliamentary election in June 2011 and September
2012, the conflict claimed over 700 lives, including soldiers, militants and civilians; the highest
number since Öcalan’s apprehension in 1999. 127
At the same time, the military standoff with Syria has placed the AKP government into another
difficult quandary. In early October 2012, when a Syrian mortar attack killed five people in a
Turkish border town, the Turkish military retaliated by firing on Syrian government targets.
Prime Minister Erdoğan warned the Assad regime that Turkey would not back from war if
provoked, while the Turkish parliament rushed to approve further military action in case of
future attacks. 128 Yet for all the hard talk, war with Syria carries enormous risks for Turkey, such
as fuelling already existing socio-political tensions inside the country and turning it into a major
battleground in the intensifying regional tug of war. Engaging in a protracted war could deal a
severe blow not only to the AKP’s self-image as a beacon of stability and democratic governance
in the region, but also to its political domination within Turkey.
Turkish officials, to their credit, have appeared largely aware of these risks, resisting western
pressures 129 and Gulf state provocations 130 to take the lead in intervening in Syria. Having failed
to move the UN to action and obtaining only a limited mandate from NATO Turkish leaders
also seem to think that in case of direct hostilities Turkey would be able to rely on precious few
allies – western or Arab. 131 On the other hand, by appearing unwilling or unable to back their
loud words with concrete action, they risk looking weak in the face of a major regional challenge;
126 ‘3 wounded as tensions escalate in Bursa over hunger strike’, Today’s Zaman, 31 October 2012.
127 See ‘Turkey: The PKK and a Kurdish Settlement’, International Crisis Group, Europe Report No. 219, 11
September 2012.
128 Tim Arango and Hwaida Saad, ‘Turkey’s Parliament Backs Military Measures on Syria’, New York Times, 4
October 2012.
129 Comparing Syria to Bosnia, and arguing for a Turkish-led intervention, Soner Çağaptay wrote, “The cost of
intervention in Syria may be high now, but the price will only increase for all nations if civilian massacres continue
unabated. […]ç In Bosnia, the international community intervened before it was too late. If Syria radicalizes,
becoming a jihadist safe haven, it could become a Sisyphean task to normalize it. Afghanistan is a case in point.”
Soner Çağaptay, ‘The Right Way for Turkey to Intervene in Syria’, New York Times, 11 October 2012.
130 In particular the Saudi regime and media have been consistently pushing Turkey to act in Syria, at times by
throwing out fabricated stories and outrageous allegations aimed at provoking the Turkish government. In one such
story surrounding the downing of a Turkish military jet by Syrian forces in June 2012, killing two soldiers, the statefunded
Al Arabiya news network cited “leaked Syrian documents” to claim that Syrian soldiers had seized the
Turkish pilots while still alive and interrogated them, before killing them upon Russian orders and returning the
corpses back inside the fallen jet lying at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea. The report was immediately
dismissed by Turkey, Russia and the United States. ‘Turkey, US, Russia dismiss Al Arabiya claims on downed
Turkish jet’, Today’s Zaman, 2 October 2012.
131 Ian Traynor, ‘Syrian shelling of Turkish village condemned by Nato and Pentagon’, Guardian, 4 October 2012.
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