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30 GREEN ECONOMY Challenges and opportunities The necessarily systemic character of the transition to a green economy Alexandre d'Avignon Luiz Caruso capacity worldwide. Such steps clearly involve external intervention, which might hinder innovative solutions related to sea culture and other practices aimed at restocking the oceans, rivers and lakes. The fifth sector, ecotourism, improvements would lead to local economic development and poverty reduction. The greening of the sector would increase local community participation, especially the poor, in the tourism value chain, thereby reducing poverty. Tourism activities often have no commitment to local activities and, instead, frequently degrade areas where local communities carry out those activities. It will be necessary to provoke a fairly sharp transformation in the culture of this sector to ensure that tourism becomes a vector for poverty alleviation. With respect to renewable energy and energy efficiency, the sixth sector, the growing supply from renewable sources reduces the risks of increasing the volatile prices characteristic of fossil fuels, and also helps to mitigate emissions of greenhouse gas emissions. There would be considerable potential for growth in this sector, through investments in renewable energy, including second generation bio-fuels. In this case, greening would require that investments migrate from carbon-intensive technologies to clean energy and energy efficiency improvements. Investments in renewable energy and energy policies could improve the living standards and health of populations. Until the outbreak of economic crisis, investments in alternative sources of renewable energies and energy efficiency (excluding nuclear sources and large hydropower projects) were steadily growing. In 2004, they totaled US$ 46 billion and had multiplied almost five times by 2008, reaching US$ 173 billion, or nearly 10% of global investments in energy infrastructure according to the UNEP publication. Just in power generation, renewable and energy efficiency achieved 42 GW of the capacity installed in 2008, nearly a quarter of the total (190 GW) installed that year. The growth of investments, which range from private and public R&D to programs in private companies and government agencies, were closely associated with distributed generation, in which the small decentralized units are prioritized over centralized production. Nº 8 • June 2011 According to the IPCC, to stabilize CO 2 e concentrations at a level of 450 ppm by 2030 will require a reduction of 60% in CO 2 e emissions in relation to 1990. This challenge means that, within a few decades, a complete restructuring of the planet´s energy infrastructure will be required. Although not precisely estimated, according to the Stern Report these changes would absorb approximately 1% of global GDP. If we take into account the overall GDP of 2007 of US$ 54 trillion, this would mean required investments of US$ 540 billion per year. Another estimation in 2008 by the International Energy Agency indicates a need for annual investments of US$ 550 billion in alternative renewable energy sources through 2030 to stabilize concentrations at 450 ppm CO 2 e. In the case of New
31 GREEN ECONOMY Challenges and opportunities The necessarily systemic character of the transition to a green economy Alexandre d'Avignon Luiz Caruso Energy Finance’s Global Futures, the estimated average annual investment is US$ 515 billion. Certainly these figures are much higher today than those observed in the years before the crisis, and it would take at least three years of growth at 50% per year to reach the required levels just in the energy sector, taking into account the level of 2009 investments (US$ 162 billion). Forms of distributed power generation associated with other economic activities would be critical for this transition. For distributed generation, this means easing taxation to encourage decentralization and stimulate self-generation. In transport, the seventh sector, improving the energy efficiency of the different modes of transport is a fundamental requirement in the evolution from private to public transport and to non-motorized transport. Urban mobility is closely linked to spatial occupation across the landscape by people. In developing countries, the high urban growth and concentration observed in recent decades undermines the sustainability of cities, which wind up “dominating” areas far beyond their borders. Planning of urban land occupation and incentives to reverse the flow of migrants seem crucial to halt the continued growth of vehicles and the continued deterioration of public health in these centers. The use of high quality, electric public transport and other alternatives is fundamental for transition to take place. Finally, in the manufacturing industry, the central strategy would be to extend the life of the manufactured products by increased emphasis on redesign, remanufacture and recycling, which constitute the core of closed-circuit production. This eighth sector would be of vital importance. But how to slow the pace of production growth for a population that continues to grow? Respecting nature’s cycles and generating waste at a pace that can be absorbed by those cycles seems the best path. It is necessary, however, to make use of more sophisticated tools such as life cycle analysis to increase the efficiency in the use of natural resources and, sharply decreasing the amount of raw materials in consumer goods and durables and, as a result, the amount of energy used in manufacturing processes. The European Union has already adopted a 4-factor reduction, i.e. a quarter of the amount of raw materials for new products. Some countries already show a 10-factor reduction. Changing the current preferences from unused to recycled commodities generates substantial conflicts in some sectors. Likewise, changing the established pace of growth in the production of iron ore, soybeans and meat is a Herculean task. Dematerializing contemporary society still seems a distant dream. Nº 8 • June 2011 Using changes in the variables proposed by the publication and applying them to the T21 model, result in the scenarios that point to a green economy growing faster than the business-as-usual while also maintaining and restoring natural capital and promoting poverty reduction (UNEP, 2011). This application bears resemblance to the World 3-91 program, established to formulate “The Limits to
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105 Figure 9 Product life cycle in
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147 Scheme 1 Current situation of L
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177 General taxonomy of the value o
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