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46 GREEN ECONOMY Challenges and opportunities International perspectives of the transition to a low-carbon green economy Eduardo Viola cement, steel and electricity lobbies against approval of the climate bill, as it supposedly would imply competitive losses for North American industry; limits to the promotion of green investments due to severe fiscal deficits and growing government debt; and various surveys showing strong growth in the proportion of the North American population that believes the risks of global warming are being exaggerated (Viola, 2010). Important resistance is expressed in Congress with respect to emissions reduction. The majority of these derives from the non-existence of reduction commitments by large emerging countries, especially China. There is also a more structural resistance, championed by strong economic sectors associated with the fossil energy matrix: states that produce coal, oil, steel; and electric energy businesses based on the production of coal fired power. On the other hand, almost all the big businesses from the lower carbon intensity sectors have favorable positions for significantly reducing emissions. In the communication and information sectors, there are Google, Apple, Microsoft, Oracle and CNN; in biotechnology, renewable energies and nuclear there is General Electric; among the large retail chains is Wall Mart; producers of inputs for “green” building are also among those that support emissions reductions, among others. The United States has an important margin for reducing emissions through: a technological change from coal fired power to clean coal (cleaner technologies) and the use of carbon capture and storage; the expansion of wind, solar, biofuel and nuclear power; decreased size and increased efficiency standards for automobiles; modernization of the electrical grid and the establishment of new green standards for construction (buildings and houses designed or renovated to reduce emissions) The European Union, composed of 27 countries, emits 4.5 billion tons of carbon equivalent, corresponding to 15% of the world total, 10 tons per capita and 0.3 tons of carbon for each US$ 1,000 of GDP. The European Union is very heterogeneous, both in terms of per capita emissions – from 22 tons in Luxemburg to 4 tons in France and Portugal – and in carbon intensity, which is low in the Nordic countries, Germany, the United Kingdom and France; average in Spain, Belgium and Italy; and high in Poland, Czech Republic, Romania, Bulgaria and the Baltic countries. European Union emissions grew by 0.5% per year, as a result of the almost stable emissions of Germany, the United Kingdom and Sweden and the accelerated growth in emissions of Spain, Portugal, Greece and the Eastern European countries (even though the latter ones are below their 1990 base year). Nº 8 • June 2011 The main political leaders of the European Union have over recent years been in favor of an incisive action to mitigate global warming, in particular the governments and public opinions in the United Kingdom, Germany, Sweden, France and Denmark, joined by – although with less emphasis – the Netherlands, Belgium and Finland. However, the 2008-9 economic crises and
47 GREEN ECONOMY Challenges and opportunities International perspectives of the transition to a low-carbon green economy Eduardo Viola the subsequent eurozone instability greatly eroded the European capacity to lead the transition to a green economy. China emits 6.5 billion tons of carbon equivalent per year, which corresponds to 24% of global emissions, 6 tons per capita and 1.5 tons of carbon for each US$ 1,000 of GDP. This is a very carbon intensive economy due to its energy matrix being based substantially on coal and petroleum, and notably, its low energy efficiency. Even though the carbon intensity of the Chinese GDP has been falling by 5% per year over the past decade, the country still maintains a carbon intensity that is nine times greater than Japan’s and four times greater than the US. Contrary to common sense, the per capita emissions in China are average as opposed to low. The cost of reducing emissions in China is high in the case of a continuation of the current industrialization model, but would be viable in the case of a reoriented model based more on the internal market and productivity growth, instead of the model based on export expansion. In the year 2007, global emissions of GHG grew by 3.3% in relation to 2006 and 50% of this increase took place in China, since 2/3 of the growth in China was based on burning coal. Even more important than reducing the consumption of oil in the world is the reduction of coal burning and, consequently, a drastic change in how the Chinese carbon (and also the Indian) is consumed is decisive. Technologies of carbon capture and sequestration, of clean carbon and nuclear power are very important for China. Nº 8 • June 2011 The position of the Chinese government – in national energy and climate policies, as well as in international negotiations – was negligent up to 2006, when there were changes based on the evaluation of China's vulnerability to climate change. The government strongly encouraged growth in wind and solar energy and announced an objective to reduce the growth rate of emissions. This objective was reflected by the National Climate Change Plan and the anti-crises economic stimulus package approved in November 2008, with a proportion of 35% of public spending aimed at transitioning to a low-carbon economy. There is a cleavage in China between globalist and nationalist forces, and the power of the prior is growing continuously and exhibits an intention to change the Chinese position in the sense of global responsibility. However, the Chinese position in international negotiations has remained delayed in comparison with its new energy policy. China continues refusing to assume commitments related to establishing an emissions peak and a stabilizing year prior to 2020, as demanded by the international scientific community and by the EU, the US and Japan – this being one of the factors that increases the firepower of conservatives in the American Congress. In the technological area, what stands out is the great technological advances, efficiency and productivity of Taiwanese businesses in the field of solar photovoltaics and the formation of joint ventures for massive investment in an extensive program in China called “low carbon cities”. As of 2009, it is possible to say that two Chinas exist
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