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44
GREEN ECONOMY
Challenges and
opportunities
International
perspectives of the
transition to a
low-carbon green
economy
Eduardo Viola
These 13 countries (considering the European Union as one unit) are
responsible for over 80% of global emissions and constitute the two crucial
groups of great and medium powers. The great powers share three highly
relevant characteristics: the first and essential, each one is responsible for
a high proportion of global carbon emissions (at least 15%) and of global
GDP; secondly, they possess important technological and human capital for
decarbonizing the economy; and thirdly, they have veto power over any global
international agreement that is effective. The medium powers are of limited
relevance in terms of their participation in emissions and the global economy and
none of them alone has veto capabilities over a global international agreement.
There are three great powers – the US, China and the European Union –
that stand for 54% of global GDP and 58% of global carbon emissions. The
European Union is isolated in the defense of an effective global architecture for
a rapid transition to a low-carbon economy. The US and China resist a global
agreement on a transition to low-carbon. There are ten medium powers: India,
Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Japan, Mexico, Canada, South Africa, South Korea
and Saudi Arabia.
The severity of the 2008 economic crisis opened a limited window of
opportunity for a partial transformation of values in developed and emerging
countries in the direction of a diminished importance attributed to immediatism,
which favors the perception of the gravity of the climate issue. Since the
economic crisis is systemic, the recuperation process currently on course does
not imply the return to a situation similar to that existing prior to September 2008.
As opposed to what the majority of international economists and analysts had
imagined in mid-2008, a substantial part of the economic stimulus packages
initiated in November 2008 in various key countries propelled the transition to
a low-carbon economy: 65% of the increased spending in South Korea, 35%
in China, 20% in the United Kingdom, 20% in Germany and 15% in the United
States (Stern, 2009). Brazil, India, South Africa, Indonesia and Russia had very
poor progress in this case.
This article is organized in four parts. In the first, the current situation and
main policies of the great and medium powers in the transition to a low carbon
green economy will be analyzed. In the second part, the specific situation of
South America in this transition will be summarized. In the third part, the main
techno-economic vectors in the transition to a low carbon green economy will
be described. Finally, the fourth part contains a reflection on future perspectives
of the transition on a global level.
Nº 8 • June 2011