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International Construction Cost Commentary - Rider Levett Bucknall

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<strong>International</strong> <strong>Construction</strong><br />

<strong>Cost</strong> <strong>Commentary</strong><br />

January 2009


Offices around the world<br />

AMERICAS<br />

CANADA<br />

Calgary<br />

Toronto<br />

CARIBBEAN<br />

Grand Cayman<br />

USA<br />

Boston<br />

Chicago<br />

Denver<br />

Honolulu<br />

Kona<br />

Las Vegas<br />

Los Angeles<br />

New York<br />

Orlando<br />

Phoenix<br />

Portland<br />

San Francisco<br />

Seattle<br />

Washington DC<br />

ASIA<br />

CHINA<br />

Beijing<br />

Chengdu<br />

Dalian<br />

Guangzhou<br />

Guiyang<br />

Hong Kong<br />

Macau<br />

Sanya<br />

Shanghai<br />

Shenyang<br />

Shenzhen<br />

Tianjin<br />

Wuhan<br />

Wuxi<br />

Xian<br />

Zhuhai<br />

INDONESIA<br />

Jakarta<br />

MALAYSIA<br />

Kota Kinabalu<br />

Kuala Lumpur<br />

PHILIPPINES<br />

Manila<br />

SINGAPORE<br />

Singapore<br />

SOUTH KOREA<br />

Seoul<br />

THAILAND<br />

Bangkok<br />

VIETNAM<br />

Ho Chi Minh City<br />

EMEA<br />

MIDDLE EAST<br />

Abu Dhabi<br />

Dubai<br />

Muscat<br />

United Kingdom<br />

Birchwood, Warrington<br />

Birmingham<br />

Bristol<br />

Edinburgh<br />

Liverpool<br />

London<br />

Manchester<br />

Newcastle Upon Tyne<br />

Sheffield<br />

Warton<br />

Welwyn Garden City<br />

Wokingham<br />

EUROPE<br />

RLB EuroAlliance<br />

Austria<br />

Belgium<br />

Bulgaria<br />

Czech Republic<br />

Estonia<br />

France<br />

Germany<br />

Greece<br />

Hungary<br />

Ireland<br />

Italy<br />

Kazakhstan<br />

Latvia<br />

Luxembourg<br />

Malta<br />

Netherlands<br />

Norway<br />

Poland<br />

Portugal<br />

Romania<br />

Russia<br />

Spain<br />

Sweden<br />

Slovakia<br />

Slovenia<br />

Switzerland<br />

Turkey<br />

Ukraine<br />

OCEANIA<br />

AUSTRALIA<br />

Adelaide<br />

Brisbane<br />

Cairns<br />

Canberra<br />

Darwin<br />

Gold Coast<br />

Melbourne<br />

Newcastle<br />

Northern NSW<br />

Perth<br />

Sunshine Coast<br />

Sydney<br />

Townsville<br />

Western Sydney<br />

NEW ZEALAND<br />

Auckland<br />

Christchurch<br />

Otago<br />

Palmerston North<br />

Tauranga<br />

Wellington<br />

Disclaimer: The <strong>International</strong> <strong>Construction</strong> <strong>Cost</strong> <strong>Commentary</strong> is a twice yearly publication by <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong>, designed to highlight key factors affecting the global cost of<br />

construction. While the information in this publication is believed to be correct at the time of publishing, no responsibility is accepted for its accuracy. Persons desiring to utilise any<br />

information appearing in the publication should verify its applicability to their specific circumstances. <strong>Cost</strong> information in this publication is indicative and for general guidance only and is<br />

based on rates at January 2009.<br />

Sources: <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong> Research and Development, Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT), <strong>International</strong> Monetary Fund (IMF),<br />

Statistics New Zealand.<br />

2<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


Welcome<br />

Welcome to the January 2009 edition of <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong><br />

<strong>Bucknall</strong>’s <strong>International</strong> <strong>Construction</strong> <strong>Cost</strong> <strong>Commentary</strong><br />

(ICCC). From all of us at <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong> we hope<br />

you and your family had a safe and enjoyable holiday season.<br />

With the global impacts of the credit squeeze still settling all<br />

around us, this commentary reviewing the global and local<br />

costs of construction is a very apt way for all professionals<br />

to start the new year with a clear understanding of the state<br />

of the various property markets across the globe.<br />

The ICCC uses global cost data to derive indexed measures<br />

of relative costs of construction within and between<br />

markets. In order to set this in the context of the wider<br />

economic environment, analysis is also provided on global,<br />

regional and local issues affecting your markets.<br />

If there’s one thing that we can be certain about in these<br />

uncertain times, it’s that the need for reliable expert advice<br />

and cost management is as essential as ever to assuring<br />

your successes.<br />

To ensure that we are continuously offering you the latest<br />

information on global and local construction costs, we are<br />

now producing electronic updates in between editions of<br />

the ICCC. To ensure you always have the most up-to-date<br />

information on costs in this fast paced industry, please refer<br />

to www.rlb.com for our essential updates.<br />

With our continued expansion across the globe, coupled<br />

with cross-regional collaboration between more than 80<br />

offices, <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong> is pleased to be in a position<br />

to offer clients a sense of comfort that they are making<br />

sound decisions based on a foundation of reliable data. In<br />

uncertain times, reliable advice can bring you the certainty<br />

that makes all the difference.<br />

At <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong> we are proud to continue<br />

providing you with a comprehensive suite of both<br />

international and local cost information documents to allow<br />

you to make successful decisions.<br />

If you would like further information on the content of this<br />

publication, or to register to regularly receive your copy,<br />

please visit our website www.rlb.com.<br />

Feedback is important to us. If you have a question, or<br />

would like to make a comment, please feel free to contact<br />

me via brian.dackers@nz.rlb.com or +64 9 309 1074.<br />

I extend my best wishes to you for a productive and<br />

successful start to the new year.<br />

Brian Dackers<br />

Chairman<br />

<strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong><br />

3<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


World at a Glance<br />

Over the latter half of 2008 the impact of the global credit crunch widened to affect not only the advanced<br />

economies but also the emerging economies. OECD forecasts for 2009 and 2010 suggest extremely subdued<br />

levels of growth and the need for sustained central government inputs across all major economies. The recent<br />

G20 meeting condensed the principles of this intervention, in terms of stimulating liquidity, strengthening capital<br />

and financial institutions, addressing regulatory deficiencies, unfreezing credit markets and protecting savings<br />

and deposits, as well as the implementation of fiscal measures to stimulate domestic demand and assistance to<br />

emerging economies to gain access to finance markets.<br />

For construction, this process will be somewhat time-consuming as the freeing-up of financial markets and<br />

credit availability will run before the re-establishment of confidence in residential, commercial and retail sectors,<br />

which may only then be reflected in more projects coming to market. Conversely though, the very fact of difficult<br />

market conditions is providing an excellent tendering environment for clients of the industry who do have<br />

liquidity of funding.<br />

Streamline Tower, Las Vegas.<br />

Photographer: Tom Craig, Opulence Studios.<br />

Project Management by <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong>.<br />

Oriental Plaza, Beijing.<br />

Quantity Surveying by <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong>.<br />

Americas<br />

The US residential construction market<br />

continues its decline and has now been<br />

joined, in many States, by the commercial<br />

market, which has been very adversely<br />

affected by the credit crunch, liquidity<br />

problems and the general retreat of<br />

confidence in markets. Continued stock<br />

market volatility has so far provided several<br />

false dawns as investors struggle to identify<br />

the bottom of this particular downturn.<br />

The end of the bear market should coincide<br />

with the resurrection of confidence across<br />

the economy generally, but its timing is as<br />

yet open to debate.<br />

As a subset of the wider economy, the<br />

construction market is currently reflective<br />

of general market conditions, in which<br />

confidence has dissipated and awaits the<br />

return of consumer activity. This has<br />

had, and is having, considerable effects<br />

on large speculative projects as they face<br />

credit availability problems, with lenders<br />

backing away from lower levels of risk than<br />

they would have coped with hitherto, or<br />

alternatively imposing a cost burden of<br />

higher interest rates. The knock-on effect<br />

for contractors and subcontractors is that<br />

they are now exposed to trawling for work<br />

in a much smaller pool of possible projects,<br />

with consequent effects on margins and<br />

profitability.<br />

Asia<br />

The rapid expansion which characterised<br />

performance in Asian markets until the<br />

middle of 2008, has been supplanted by<br />

the impact of global economic downturn,<br />

as market-overlap has impacted upon<br />

overseas demand for products and the<br />

financial ills of the developed economies<br />

have been visited upon emerging markets.<br />

Overall, according to the IMF’s Regional<br />

Economic Outlook released in November<br />

2008, Asian growth is projected to have<br />

slowed from 7.6% in 2007, to 6.0% in 2008<br />

and then to 4.9% in 2009. Although the<br />

softening of international and domestic<br />

demand is evident, as noted by the IMF,<br />

most Asian countries are emerging from<br />

a period of relatively high inflation, so any<br />

monetary easing to stimulate markets will<br />

have to be closely monitored to avoid the<br />

initiation of a new inflation cycle. However,<br />

rapid responses have been made in, for<br />

example, China, where interest rates have<br />

been slashed in response to falling domestic<br />

and external demand, which have in their<br />

turn driven down GDP growth projections.<br />

The formerly rapidly inflating growth of<br />

the mainland Chinese construction market<br />

has been significantly curtailed by falling<br />

demand and also by falling values in the<br />

property market. Similarly, in Hong Kong,<br />

price inflation in the construction market<br />

has been damped by the reduction in<br />

workload in Macau, where several major<br />

projects have been shelved, the result<br />

being that contractor and subcontractor<br />

markets have become more competitive<br />

in a market which is shrinking not only in<br />

its own terms, but relative to an increasing<br />

productive capacity to build.<br />

4<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


EMEA<br />

Economies throughout the EMEA region<br />

have been seriously affected by the<br />

economic situation foreseen in the first<br />

half of the year. Although the downturn<br />

was expected to take effect in the later<br />

part of the year, the potential depth and<br />

severity are now becoming clearer. The<br />

effects have now percolated through to the<br />

Middle East, although it was the developed<br />

economies in northern Europe which first<br />

experienced the impacts. These effects<br />

were due to global financial and economic<br />

linkages which saw banking and financial<br />

systems exposed to sub-prime problems<br />

and then the downstream consequences<br />

of credit difficulties and waning confidence<br />

across all sectors. Share markets across all<br />

of Europe have been taken back by sudden<br />

and dramatic falls, while retailers are having<br />

to cope with falling sales and absence<br />

of consumer demand. Add to this the<br />

looming spectre of rising unemployment<br />

and the picture looks decidedly gloomy.<br />

Governments have reacted by attempting<br />

to stimulate market demand, with deep<br />

cuts in interest rates and promises to invest<br />

in public sector construction projects.<br />

However, in the UK housing market, home<br />

buyers are either unable or unwilling to<br />

return to the market while doubts remain<br />

on the jobs front. In construction, major<br />

projects have, in many cases, been shelved<br />

to await better times, with the result that<br />

construction prices are now falling back.<br />

Though materials costs are falling, this is<br />

partially offset by a fall in the relative value<br />

of sterling to other currencies. Clearly this<br />

margin-compression cannot last indefinitely,<br />

but whilst it does, there are opportunities<br />

for clients with funds to invest in<br />

construction for the long haul - if they<br />

have the confidence to do so. Although<br />

new build projects have been severely hit,<br />

many clients continue to invest in their<br />

existing assets, with specialist services such<br />

as whole life costs, RElifing, risk and value<br />

management become increasingly important<br />

in this market. Even the Middle East is not<br />

immune from the now global turmoil, as<br />

recent events of projects’ deferrals and<br />

suspensions clearly demonstrate.<br />

Oceania<br />

The Australian economy has lurched from<br />

a seeming inflationary spiral, towards a<br />

steep downswing, all in the space of just a<br />

few months. Although the shadow of this<br />

impact existed in the second quarter of<br />

the year, it was only in the third quarter<br />

that the turnaround began to gather pace.<br />

Australian GDP growth for 2009 is now<br />

expected to further weaken from a revised<br />

forecast of only 2.5% in 2008, before<br />

reviving in 2010. Unemployment is also<br />

forecast to rise, though throughout 2008 it<br />

stood at extremely low levels. Successive<br />

reductions of the interest rate by the<br />

Reserve Bank of Australia are running in<br />

parallel with the Federal Government’s<br />

commitment to stimulating the domestic<br />

economy, as the former fight to control<br />

inflation has been abruptly set aside.<br />

Additional federal commitment to spending<br />

on large infrastructure works will help<br />

to stimulate domestic economic activity,<br />

as money feeds through the layers of the<br />

economy, but will take time to build up a<br />

head of steam. In private sector building,<br />

much depends on a return of consumer<br />

and developer confidence, which has taken<br />

a battering recently with the combined<br />

impacts of the falling exchange rate, share<br />

market reverses and talk of a recession for<br />

the first time in almost twenty years.<br />

In New Zealand, the credit squeeze<br />

continues to stifle the general economy,<br />

presenting challenging times for the<br />

construction industry. Despite continued<br />

lowering of interest rates, the economy<br />

remains in recession, with consumer and<br />

business confidence extremely low and<br />

the trough not expected to be reached<br />

until sometime in 2009. Although there<br />

have been significant falls in international<br />

commodity prices, the falling NZ$ is<br />

outweighing any cost benefits on imported<br />

materials and this may be the biggest risk<br />

to building cost inflation in the short term.<br />

<strong>Construction</strong> markets are forecast to<br />

be weak through the next period, other<br />

than in infrastructure and other central<br />

government backed projects, which will<br />

provide some consistent work.<br />

Egg data centre, United Kingdom.<br />

<strong>Cost</strong> Management by <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong>.<br />

The Queensland Gallery of Modern Art, Australia.<br />

Quantity Surveying by <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong>.<br />

5<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


<strong>Construction</strong> Activity Cycle<br />

Kuala Lumpur<br />

Dubai<br />

Washington DC<br />

Manila<br />

San Francisco<br />

Canberra<br />

Perth<br />

Brisbane<br />

Adelaide<br />

New York<br />

Phoenix<br />

Portland<br />

Melbourne<br />

Denver<br />

Los Angeles<br />

Bangkok<br />

Honolulu<br />

Hong Kong<br />

Singapore<br />

VALUE<br />

UPTURN<br />

Darwin<br />

Tokyo<br />

Ho Chi Minh City<br />

Beijing<br />

Guangzhou<br />

Shanghai<br />

Shenzhen<br />

Seoul<br />

Seattle<br />

Wellington<br />

Christchurch<br />

London<br />

Birmingham<br />

Boston<br />

Las Vegas<br />

DOWNTURN<br />

Bristol<br />

Manchester<br />

Sheffield<br />

TROUGH<br />

Jakarta<br />

Macau<br />

Sydney<br />

Auckland<br />

TROUGH<br />

TIME<br />

<strong>Construction</strong> Activity Cycle Chart<br />

The <strong>Construction</strong> Activity Cycle chart<br />

depicts the position of each city in a<br />

theoretical construction industry business<br />

cycle. The aim of the chart is to provide<br />

an overview of the relative performance of<br />

each city in the context of its own economy.<br />

Each city has its own industry business<br />

cycle and as such cities’ cycles are not<br />

strictly directly comparable with each<br />

other. As the amplitude and frequency of<br />

the cycle(s) are not expressed in this chart,<br />

there is no direct parameter of extent of<br />

the cycle or of its time period.<br />

7<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


<strong>International</strong> Tender Price<br />

Relativity Matrix<br />

The ‘<strong>International</strong> Tender Price Relativity Matrix’<br />

shows the changing costs of works between<br />

July 2008 and January 2009.<br />

City Jul-08 Jan-09 % Change<br />

New York 154 154 0.0%<br />

London 151 151 0.0%<br />

Honolulu 141 143 + 1.4%<br />

San Francisco 140 140 0.0%<br />

Boston 135 136 + 0.7%<br />

Perth 129 132 + 2.3%<br />

Bristol 131 128 - 2.3%<br />

Washington D.C. 131 128 - 2.3%<br />

Darwin 123 128 + 4.1%<br />

Manchester 127 124 - 2.4%<br />

Los Angeles 123 124 + 0.8%<br />

Birmingham 125 120 - 4.0%<br />

Sheffield 124 119 - 4.0%<br />

Seattle 121 116 - 4.1%<br />

Singapore 122 112 - 8.2%<br />

Adelaide 109 112 + 2.8%<br />

Dubai 108 110 + 1.9%<br />

Sydney 110 109 - 0.9%<br />

Brisbane 109 109 0.0%<br />

Hong Kong 115 107 - 7.0%<br />

Melbourne 105 106 + 1.0%<br />

Canberra 104 106 + 1.9%<br />

Macau 110 104 - 5.5%<br />

Wellington 102 102 0.0%<br />

Phoenix 101 101 0.0%<br />

Portland 100 100 0.0%<br />

Denver 98 99 + 1.0%<br />

Auckland 99 98 - 1.0%<br />

Orlando 99 98 - 1.0%<br />

Las Vegas 97 98 + 1.0%<br />

Christchurch 92 92 0.0%<br />

Beijing 80 78 - 2.5%<br />

Shanghai 74 73 - 1.4%<br />

Guangzhou 69 67 - 2.9%<br />

Shenzhen 69 67 - 2.9%<br />

Please note: Figures for the above Percentage Change column are for the 6 month period<br />

between the July 2008 ICCC and the January 2009 ICCC.<br />

8<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


<strong>International</strong> Tender Price Index<br />

The Tender Price Index graph shows the<br />

changing costs of works relative to Hong<br />

Kong’s base of 100 at October 2007<br />

200<br />

180<br />

160<br />

140<br />

120<br />

Index<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

January 2009<br />

2005<br />

2006<br />

2007<br />

2008<br />

2009<br />

2010<br />

Year<br />

•Hong Kong •Auckland •Beijing •Dubai •London<br />

•New York •Singapore •Sydney<br />

The <strong>International</strong> Tender Price Index chart<br />

demonstrates clearly the seismic nature of the<br />

impact on the construction industry of global<br />

economic woes.<br />

The longer term effects however are ongoing, as<br />

the shock waves ripple around the world.<br />

9<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


<strong>Commentary</strong> by region:<br />

Americas<br />

200<br />

180<br />

160<br />

140<br />

120<br />

Index<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

January 2009<br />

2005<br />

2006<br />

2007<br />

2008<br />

2009<br />

2010<br />

Year<br />

•New York •Boston •Denver •Honolulu •Las Vegas •Los Angeles<br />

•Orlando •Phoenix •Portland •San Francisco •Seattle •Washington DC<br />

Tender Price Relativity Matrix -<br />

comparative costs of construction<br />

New York 154<br />

Honolulu 143<br />

San Francisco 140<br />

Boston 136<br />

Washington D.C. 128<br />

Los Angeles 124<br />

Seattle 116<br />

Phoenix 101<br />

Portland 100<br />

Denver 99<br />

Orlando 98<br />

Las Vegas 98<br />

The protracted housing downturn and weak domestic growth, combined<br />

with the ongoing credit availability problems, will together ensure that<br />

difficult economic conditions will continue well into 2009. The Federal<br />

Reserve’s December reduction of the US federal funds rate to a range<br />

from zero to 0.25% was unprecedented and further underscored the<br />

existence of a severe financial crisis in the USA. Fiscal stimulus has already<br />

been added to the system, but more may well be required<br />

to further stimulate growth and confidence. In the short term, the need<br />

to re-invigorate the economy has taken precedence over dealing with<br />

the budget deficit and the need to overhaul financial regulation. The key<br />

to revival is the restoration of confidence across all sectors, from<br />

investors through to consumers, which can only begin with the freeing of<br />

the credit lock-up.<br />

Phoenix<br />

Within the Phoenix Metro area,<br />

commercial construction has slowed<br />

significantly which, together with a<br />

continued stagnant residential construction<br />

market, puts the Phoenix Metro area firmly<br />

into a construction cycle downturn which<br />

is expected to last into 2010. Recently,<br />

numerous public and privately funded<br />

construction projects have been placed<br />

on-hold. This indicates that, at least in the<br />

near-term, Phoenix is likely to experience a<br />

continued downward spiral with job losses,<br />

reduced construction volume, investor<br />

and lender fright and further calls for<br />

government support of the construction<br />

industry.<br />

One of the main reasons for the significant<br />

slowing of overall construction, particularly<br />

commercial related construction, is ongoing<br />

significant pressures on both City and State<br />

budgets. The State is facing budget deficits<br />

of over $1.2B in 2009 and potentially over<br />

$2.0B in 2010.<br />

There continues to be much debate<br />

surrounding the higher education<br />

investment/economic stimulus package<br />

(SPEED) which, despite receiving legislature<br />

approvals to spend up to $1.4B to renovate<br />

and build educational facilities within<br />

Arizona, has recently run into final approval<br />

difficulties from within the Joint Committee<br />

on Capital Review (JCCR). At this time<br />

there remains a great deal of uncertainty<br />

10<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


on the future of all SPEED related projects<br />

which, if implemented in their entirety,<br />

could potentially significantly help Arizona’s<br />

economy, which relies heavily on the<br />

construction industry.<br />

Despite the stagnant housing sector it is<br />

widely anticipated that, with The State<br />

of Arizona continuing to experience<br />

population growth, this current trend will<br />

show signs of a slow recovery in early<br />

2010. It is further anticipated that a slow<br />

recovery within commercial construction<br />

related works may follow behind the<br />

housing sector.<br />

Boston<br />

The Boston market continues its<br />

downward spiral.<br />

The residential construction market<br />

continues to struggle, with no new large<br />

scale condominium projects planned in the<br />

city and single family home construction<br />

effectively stalled. Condominium sales<br />

remain significantly below last year’s<br />

numbers and the median price of a single<br />

family home has now dropped by 14% over<br />

the last 12 months.<br />

The commercial market has suffered<br />

considerably during the credit crisis in the<br />

last 6 months, with all but a handful of the<br />

ongoing city centre developments grinding<br />

to a halt over issues with financing. Lenders<br />

have been reviewing and withdrawing<br />

financing on projects, while developers are<br />

seeking to fill their yet-to-be built office<br />

building before committing to construction.<br />

Office rents remain inflated, but with<br />

vacancy rates rising steadily as businesses<br />

downsize, this should correct over the upcoming<br />

months.<br />

Hospitals and Universities, long considered<br />

the “safe” option in Boston, have also<br />

signalled a cautious approach for the<br />

upcoming year. With issues over bond<br />

financing and reduction in endowments,<br />

the city’s major health and educational<br />

institutions have placed major capital<br />

projects under review and halted a number<br />

of high profile developments.<br />

Contractors are becoming more aggressive,<br />

and the only silver lining currently out<br />

there is that the next 12 months will be a<br />

great time to build - if finance is available.<br />

Los Angeles<br />

Los Angeles experienced significant declines<br />

in construction activity across many sectors<br />

in 2008 with residential permits down<br />

41.7% and non-residential permits down<br />

16.6%.<br />

The devastated national credit market is<br />

reflected in Los Angeles with construction<br />

lending down 52.5% and many projects<br />

struggling to break ground. Most notably,<br />

Los Angeles’ marquee project, the $2.7<br />

billion mixed-use development of Grand<br />

Avenue faces continued delays due to<br />

major financing issues.<br />

The residential market has been significantly<br />

impacted by the credit freeze. Park Fifth, a<br />

$1.3 billion 76-story development; Suncal<br />

Condo Tower, a $400 million dollar<br />

development and 9900 Wilshire Blvd., a<br />

$366 million dollar development have all<br />

been placed on hold. This trend is mirrored<br />

throughout the private sector in Los<br />

Angeles with construction loans becoming<br />

increasingly tougher to obtain.<br />

The one bright light for construction in<br />

Los Angeles is public projects. With funds<br />

already in place, these projects are avoiding<br />

the credit issues plaguing the private sector.<br />

Three major new infrastructure projects<br />

broke ground in 2008 totalling $470 million.<br />

The ongoing $869 million Metro Gold Line<br />

expansion and $504 million Tom Bradley<br />

<strong>International</strong> Terminal are both under<br />

construction until 2010. Public school<br />

construction is pushing forward with the<br />

$391 million Central Los Angeles Learning<br />

Center and two new LAUSD campuses<br />

totalling $218 million.<br />

In 2009 it is anticipated that there will be<br />

a continued reliance on the public sector<br />

to stimulate the Los Angeles construction<br />

economy, with no sign of improvement in<br />

any private sectors expected until 2010.<br />

New York<br />

The New York City area, like most<br />

major urban centres in the United States,<br />

has begun to experience a downturn in<br />

construction activity across all sectors.<br />

While construction continues on priorfunded<br />

privately financed projects, it is<br />

apparent that the area is bracing for a<br />

protracted and severe economic slowdown.<br />

The market for office space as well as<br />

luxury high-rise residences has dropped off.<br />

This, coupled with the dearth of private<br />

financing, has resulted in significant layoffs<br />

among the city’s largest developers.<br />

The hotel and hospitality sector has been<br />

particularly hard hit, experiencing declining<br />

occupancy rates in the 4th quarter of 2008<br />

(traditionally a busy season) for the first<br />

time in recent memory. It is expected that<br />

some 9,000 new rooms will come on line<br />

in 2009, mostly in the three-star and below<br />

category. No new five-star development is<br />

planned and the last of the major five star<br />

renovations is underway.<br />

The State is in the midst of a multi-billion<br />

dollar budget gap and the public sector<br />

will feel the pinch in coming months as<br />

government and agency projects are<br />

shelved. Quasi-public entities such as<br />

colleges and universities, especially privately<br />

endowed institutions, continue to develop<br />

capital projects as well as upgrades,<br />

maintenance, and even investment.<br />

Prices for major durable commodities have<br />

levelled or started to decline, especially<br />

those which are energy sensitive, in the<br />

wake of severely declining crude oil prices.<br />

Gasoline surcharges, in place for most of<br />

2008, are being rescinded.<br />

11<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


<strong>Commentary</strong> by region:<br />

Asia<br />

200<br />

180<br />

160<br />

140<br />

120<br />

Index<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

January 2009<br />

2005<br />

2006<br />

2007<br />

2008<br />

2009<br />

2010<br />

Year<br />

•Beijing •Guangzhou •Hong Kong •Macau •Shanghai •Shenzhen •Singapore<br />

Tender Price Relativity Matrix -<br />

comparative costs of construction<br />

Singapore 112<br />

Hong Kong 107<br />

Macau 104<br />

Beijing 78<br />

Shanghai 73<br />

Guangzhou 67<br />

Shenzhen 67<br />

Chinese GDP has returned to single figures, after peaking at almost 12%.<br />

This is symptomatic of falling demand and softening exports. However,<br />

China’s fiscal position remains strong and further stimulus to the economy<br />

could be derived from income tax reductions, following on from deep<br />

cuts in interest rates. Hong Kong, as a major financial centre has been<br />

particularly hard-hit, with huge losses recorded on the Hang Seng, tensions<br />

in the interbank market due to the credit crunch, depressed local demand<br />

and falling property values, following on from last year’s gains. Macau’s<br />

economy, founded as it is on tourism, entertainment and casinos, has<br />

suffered similarly as a direct consequence of rapidly falling consumer<br />

and investor sentiment. The freezing up of credit markets has severely<br />

strained Macau’s construction boom, resulting in suspension of several<br />

large projects under construction. The slowdown in Asian economies and<br />

property markets has also affected Singapore’s economic performance and<br />

market sentiment in the second half of 2008. Following the construction<br />

boom in Singapore for 2008, overall construction demand for 2009 is likely<br />

to weaken and building tender prices are expected to moderate.<br />

Hong Kong<br />

Tender prices in Hong Kong have risen<br />

continuously since 2005. However, in the<br />

midst of the current global financial crisis,<br />

which has worsened since September 2008,<br />

it has now become evident that the rising<br />

trend in tender prices has reversed and the<br />

<strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong> tender price index has<br />

peaked in the third quarter of 2008. Since<br />

August 2008, there have been fundamental<br />

shifts in two key factors, namely the<br />

surge in commodity prices and the Macau<br />

construction boom, which led to the rapid<br />

rise in tender prices in Hong Kong in the<br />

past two years. Commodity prices have<br />

now fallen rapidly against a much stronger<br />

US dollar, and also a number of major<br />

projects in Macau have been suspended.<br />

The unemployment rate of construction<br />

workers is expected to increase in the early<br />

part of 2009 as a large number of workers<br />

return to Hong Kong from Macau.<br />

Tender prices have fallen dramatically<br />

from the end of third quarter 2008 and<br />

12<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


are expected to continue to drop in the<br />

first two to three quarters of 2009 before<br />

stabilising. The overall fall could be at least<br />

15% from the peak. Since the Hong Kong<br />

government has pledged to increase capital<br />

expenditure as one of the measures to<br />

combat the financial crisis and there will be<br />

more public sector projects going out to<br />

tender in the second half of 2009, tender<br />

prices are likely to show some mild upward<br />

swing towards the end of 2009. If by that<br />

time the US dollar has weakened again,<br />

as some economists have warned, and as<br />

the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US<br />

dollar, the rebound of tender prices may be<br />

more significant.<br />

Macau<br />

The construction boom in Macau has<br />

come to an abrupt end in the aftermath<br />

of the credit crunch, which impacted in<br />

September 2008. <strong>Construction</strong> activities in<br />

Macau have slowed down significantly and<br />

are expected to further deteriorate with<br />

the suspension of major casino and hotel<br />

projects. The overall real wage index of<br />

construction workers fell 11.83% year-onyear<br />

in the third quarter of 2008 and will<br />

decline further in the coming quarters as<br />

the remaining few projects in the gaming<br />

industry are progressively completed.<br />

With very few new projects available in<br />

the market and the fall in materials prices<br />

due to weak demand, construction cost in<br />

Macau is expected to fall substantially in the<br />

early part of 2009.<br />

Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou,<br />

Shenzhen<br />

Year-on-year growth in GDP slowed to 9%<br />

in the third quarter of 2008 from 10.6% in<br />

the first and 10.1% in the second, signifying<br />

that China’s economy is rapidly cooling<br />

down in the midst of the global financial<br />

crisis. The consumer price index rose 4%<br />

year-on-year in October 2008, which was<br />

significantly lower than the 8.7% recorded in<br />

February. Although construction activities<br />

have continued to expand, recording a yearon-year<br />

growth of 22.8% in construction<br />

output value in the first three quarters of<br />

2008, construction costs have began to<br />

decline as materials prices are falling due to<br />

weak demand country-wide.<br />

Many developers have suspended projects<br />

as a result of the fall in property values and<br />

the credit crunch.. The declining trend of<br />

construction cost will continue in the early<br />

part of 2009 when the central government’s<br />

4 trillion Yuan economic stimulus package is<br />

expected to gradually produce the desired<br />

effect.<br />

Singapore<br />

Singapore entered economic recession<br />

in the third quarter of 2008, as the global<br />

financial crisis began to impact upon the<br />

local economy in most sectors. Singapore’s<br />

GDP contracted by 0.6% year-on-year,<br />

with the construction industry registering<br />

a slower but double-digit growth of 12.8%<br />

for the same period. The government<br />

has adjusted its GDP growth forecast<br />

downwards to 2.5% in 2008 from the earlier<br />

forecast of 3%; and -1% to 2% in 2009.<br />

The Singapore property market has been<br />

affected by the global financial uncertainty,<br />

with declines in private residential sale<br />

prices and office rentals. The government<br />

has reduced the availability of land sites<br />

in view of the weakening outlook for the<br />

economy and the subdued property market.<br />

Data from the Building and <strong>Construction</strong><br />

Authority (BCA) showed a contraction<br />

of private sector construction demand by<br />

37.5% for the third quarter of 2008 over<br />

the preceding quarter. As construction<br />

demand from the private sector reduces, the<br />

authorities have advised that it is monitoring<br />

the situation closely and public sector<br />

projects that were previously deferred may<br />

be brought forward.<br />

Underpinned by high construction demand<br />

for 2008, the BCA has estimated that<br />

construction demand could reach an alltime<br />

high of around S$30 billion. The BCA<br />

All Buildings Tender Price Index (TPI) for<br />

the third quarter registered a 14% yearon-year<br />

increase. <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong>’s<br />

TPI remained at an average tender price<br />

escalation of 18.3% for the first 9 months<br />

of 2008 as compared with 2007. However<br />

for the fourth quarter, building tender<br />

prices eased, arising from a significant<br />

fall in tendering activity, and declines in<br />

contracting margins and building material<br />

prices. This declining trend is anticipated to<br />

continue through 2009, as the property and<br />

construction markets consolidate further.<br />

<strong>International</strong> Finance Centre Two, Hong Kong.<br />

Quantity Surveying by <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong>.<br />

LASALLE College of the Arts, Singapore.<br />

Photo courtesy of RSP Architects Planners &<br />

Engineers (Pte) Ltd.<br />

Project Management by <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong>.<br />

13<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


<strong>Commentary</strong> by region:<br />

EMEA<br />

200<br />

180<br />

160<br />

140<br />

120<br />

Index<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

January 2009<br />

2005<br />

2006<br />

2007<br />

2008<br />

2009<br />

2010<br />

Year<br />

•Birmingham •Bristol •Dubai •London •Sheffield •Manchester<br />

Tender Price Relativity Matrix -<br />

comparative costs of construction<br />

London 151<br />

Bristol 128<br />

Manchester 124<br />

Birmingham 120<br />

Sheffield 119<br />

14<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009<br />

European and particularly UK construction markets continue to be badly<br />

affected by the global downturn, the key symptoms being cancelled or<br />

deferred projects and extremely competitive conditions in the tendering<br />

marketplace. The extraction from Europe of skilled management and<br />

site labour to the UAE is now drying up as the UAE is also now being<br />

affected by global economic events. In the final quarter of 2008 several<br />

major projects in Dubai were brought to a standstill by falling demand and<br />

declining property values, mirroring the events which unfolded in Europe<br />

from the middle of the second quarter.<br />

Dubai 110 London<br />

pricing levels are currently extremely<br />

As the world economy continues to competitive. <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong> forecast<br />

stagnate, London has seen in the last all-in tender price levels in London to<br />

quarter a significant fall in the demand for decrease by between 2.5% and 5.0% during<br />

building materials generally and in the price 2009 and up to 2.0% in 2010.<br />

of steel in particular. With the falling price<br />

of oil and waning demand for raw materials, Bristol<br />

the previously forecast inflationary pressure <strong>Construction</strong> activity levels are forecast<br />

on material prices has disappeared. The to deteriorate even further in the South<br />

recently announced Government capital West region over the next 12 months,<br />

construction spend package of £3bn is set following on from the difficulties of the last<br />

to mitigate part of this deficit and provide 6 months. As is the case in most of the<br />

a boost to the education, infrastructure UK, the residential sector is suffering due<br />

and affordable housing sectors. However, to difficulties in obtaining mortgages. We<br />

main contractors’ long term order books have also experienced a delay in enquiries<br />

are showing signs of weakening and to from Registered Social Landlords, as they<br />

win work we are now seeing a return to wait for the market to bottom out prior to<br />

acceptance of more risk averse tendering purchasing available sites.<br />

methods, such as single stage selective<br />

tendering.<br />

Commercial construction, covering offices,<br />

industrial and retail, is also experiencing<br />

The market is also experiencing the a slowdown. Examples are the recent<br />

tightening up of Main Contractor’s<br />

completion of major developments such as<br />

preliminaries and OHP levels. Sub-contract Cabot’s Circus in Bristol City Centre and


St David’s II in Cardiff which will effectively<br />

remove demand for retail development for<br />

some time. A number of key mixed use<br />

developments in the South West region<br />

have also been cancelled or delayed while<br />

confidence remains low.<br />

The South West and Bristol Region is<br />

following the National Trend with the<br />

downturn leading to redundancies among<br />

contractors, construction consultants,<br />

property agents and developers.<br />

Public sector works carries on however,<br />

particularly in the Defence, Education<br />

and Health Sectors, with major projects<br />

development programmes planned over the<br />

next five years, for example the Defence<br />

Training Academy in Wales.<br />

We believe the next 12 months will be<br />

a difficult and challenging period for the<br />

construction market, however the low<br />

levels of activity within the commercial<br />

sector will to some extent be offset by<br />

continued public sector spending.<br />

Manchester<br />

As with other UK and Global markets<br />

the Manchester and North West<br />

market has seen a significant decline in<br />

construction activity in the last 6 months.<br />

As the economy continues to languish,<br />

construction activity is likely to deteriorate<br />

further through 2009.<br />

The residential sector has been hit<br />

particularly hard, with North West house<br />

values suffering more than the UK average<br />

and with a substantial stock of apartments<br />

within Manchester remaining unsold. Local<br />

Registered Social Landlords have revised<br />

their strategies away from constructing<br />

shared ownership homes toward a rental<br />

accommodation bias.<br />

The commercial office market is<br />

experiencing a slowdown, as a number of<br />

major office schemes completing in 2009<br />

and 2010 have yet to secure occupiers,<br />

providing a surplus of accommodation and<br />

deterring developers from progressing new<br />

projects. It is predicted that Manchester<br />

city centre office rents are likely to perform<br />

worse than in any other major centre<br />

outside London. Two major occupiers who<br />

were recently looking for nearly 200,000<br />

square feet of accommodation have put<br />

searches on hold.<br />

A number of key developments in the<br />

North West have been cancelled or<br />

delayed, including Liverpool Football<br />

Club’s new stadium (£350m) and Stockport<br />

town centre redevelopment (£500m).<br />

Other large commercial developments<br />

are rumoured to be in delay or are being<br />

scaled down.<br />

The downturn has now led to redundancies<br />

starting to escalate among contractors,<br />

construction consultants, property agents,<br />

developers and even legal firms, with<br />

insolvencies also starting to rise.<br />

However, quasi public sector schemes<br />

remain a strong contributor to the<br />

market. North West universities such as<br />

Manchester Metropolitan, Liverpool and<br />

University of Cumbria all have significant<br />

capital projects in the pipeline, and the<br />

Government’s Housing Market Renewal<br />

Programme has over £500m of funding<br />

allocated to five key North West regions.<br />

Although the contraction of the market<br />

has led to more competitive levels of<br />

tendering, care should be taken regarding<br />

advising that overall construction prices will<br />

fall significantly due to the continued high<br />

price of materials and the poor levels of<br />

exchange rates.<br />

In summary, whilst the outlook for the<br />

commercial sector is poor, public sector<br />

spending is compensating to some degree,<br />

so it is not all bad news. However, the next<br />

12 months will be a difficult and challenging<br />

period for the North West construction<br />

market.<br />

Sheffield<br />

<strong>Construction</strong> work has slowed down<br />

dramatically across the area. The<br />

Sevenstones retail development, which<br />

will provide 860,000 ft2 in the heart of the<br />

city centre has been delayed until at least<br />

4th Quarter 2009. This has had a knock<br />

on effect on ancilliary demolition projects,<br />

which have also been shelved. The Moor<br />

development, which is set to revive the<br />

main pedestrian shopping area in the city<br />

with its indoor market has also been put<br />

on hold.<br />

Residential, office and hotel developments,<br />

which commenced prior to the global crisis<br />

are continuing to be completed, however<br />

new schemes are slow to reach the market<br />

Birmingham<br />

The Birmingham market has been severely<br />

hit by the credit crunch. Major schemes<br />

have been put on hold due to a lack of<br />

availability of finance and recent cuts in<br />

interest rates have not yet filtered through<br />

to the market.<br />

We envisage a reduction in tender prices<br />

over the next 12 to 18 months driven<br />

by increased competition for a reduced<br />

workload and reducing material prices,<br />

driven down by a sharp reduction in<br />

worldwide demand. However, due to the<br />

decrease in the value of sterling comparable<br />

to currencies used in trading commodities<br />

and construction materials, the full effect of<br />

the reduction in material prices will not be<br />

realised in the UK.<br />

Contractors and subcontractors are<br />

reducing margins in order to secure<br />

workload.<br />

This cannot be sustainable in the long term,<br />

and we see this resulting in a reduction in<br />

the general contracting market if market<br />

conditions and workload do not improve in<br />

the near future.<br />

The upside of the reduction in tender<br />

prices will provide clients with funding<br />

with a window of opportunity to procure<br />

projects at lower cost than has been<br />

recently available.<br />

Dubai<br />

The rapid ascent of the Dubai construction<br />

market has been slowed somewhat by<br />

the fall-out from global economic woes.<br />

Recent announcements of several major<br />

high-profile projects such as the Trump<br />

<strong>International</strong> Hotel and Tower being<br />

deferred or postponed, have followed hard<br />

on news of sharp falls in property values<br />

and the retreat of overseas investors.<br />

These effects are of course demonstrative<br />

of the impact of extremely problematic<br />

global economic conditions, but they<br />

also demonstrate the enormous external<br />

investment in Dubai from around the globe.<br />

However, it has to be said that no-one<br />

could be better-placed to withstand the<br />

economic storm than the Emirates, given<br />

the huge value of natural resources and the<br />

fact that a recovering global economy will<br />

once again demand the key product, namely<br />

oil, reliance on which the UAE is seeking<br />

to diversify away from by building into the<br />

service, tourism and industrial markets.<br />

As the Dubai construction economy<br />

scales back to shelter from the storm,<br />

the outcome will be significant reductions<br />

in the annual levels of construction cost<br />

increase to which we have become<br />

accustomed. Depending on the severity of<br />

the ongoing economic difficulties and the<br />

point at which the bottom is reached, there<br />

is of course the potential for large-scale<br />

deferral of work, as is evidenced by the<br />

sheer volume of currently ongoing work.<br />

That can be very rapidly affected by funding<br />

and viability concerns, which would spill<br />

over into demand for labour and materials.<br />

15<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


<strong>Commentary</strong> by region:<br />

Oceania<br />

200<br />

180<br />

160<br />

140<br />

120<br />

Index<br />

100<br />

80<br />

60<br />

40<br />

20<br />

January 2009<br />

2005<br />

2006<br />

2007<br />

2008<br />

2009<br />

2010<br />

Year<br />

•Adelaide •Canberra •Brisbane •Auckland •Christchurch<br />

•Darwin •Melbourne •Sydney •Perth •Wellington<br />

The supposed strength of the Australian economy has been challenged recently from several directions, stemming<br />

largely from international trade and finance linkages. Despite deep cuts in interest rates, the prospect looms<br />

of a continuing slide into recession, unless the bottom of the bear market is found and sentiment changes. The<br />

effect on construction has been shelved and cancelled projects and a general retreat from risk. Similar, but more<br />

profound effects are being experienced in New Zealand, where the credit availability problems touched down<br />

earlier, with several mezzanine funders failing, funding became harder to find and swingeing interest rate cuts<br />

designed to stimulate demand. In both Australia and New Zealand however, the silver lining on this particular<br />

cloud is the fact that, in many locations, the time to buy construction is now, as there are many contractors<br />

chasing few projects, creating a strong competitive edge to the contracting environment.<br />

Tender Price Relativity Matrix -<br />

comparative costs of construction<br />

Perth 132<br />

Darwin 128<br />

Adelaide 112<br />

Sydney 109<br />

Brisbane 109<br />

Melbourne 106<br />

Canberra 106<br />

Wellington 102<br />

Auckland 98<br />

Christchurch 92<br />

Adelaide<br />

In Adelaide there are a number of private<br />

projects being put on hold as a response to<br />

difficulties in obtaining funding, which, even<br />

if it is available, is bound into higher equity<br />

commitment on the part of the developer.<br />

The Federal Government’s approach<br />

has been to consider raising spending<br />

to stimulate the economy, whereas the<br />

State Government is debating cutting<br />

spending so as to avoid deficit. At the same<br />

time, costs of construction may show a<br />

modest rise due to labour cost increase<br />

through established enterprise bargaining<br />

agreements and imported materials<br />

increase, which are affected by the fall in<br />

the dollar.<br />

Although ongoing construction projects will<br />

fully utilise the capacity of the industry in<br />

the first half of 2009, we are already seeing<br />

both contractors and sub-contractors<br />

looking to replenish order books in a<br />

suddenly much more circumspect market.<br />

Brisbane<br />

The significant boom in office developments<br />

has slowed and the stalling of several<br />

projects is likely to result in an oversupply<br />

being avoided. Public sector work is<br />

progressing, although forecast tax revenue<br />

shortfalls may result in certain projects<br />

being delayed or deferred. Meanwhile in the<br />

retail sector, low consumer confidence, high<br />

hurdle rates and the reluctance of tenants<br />

to commit has resulted in a significant<br />

slowdown, although we expect this sector to<br />

recover quickly from the downturn, driven<br />

by population growth. Materials costs are<br />

still rising, although they are being subsumed<br />

in falling labour costs and reducing margins.<br />

A clear 2-tier market has emerged, the<br />

cost of major projects continuing to rise<br />

albeit more slowly than in previous years.<br />

However the more general market has<br />

tightened.<br />

16<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


Canberra<br />

The volume of projects now entering<br />

the marketplace has reduced to a more<br />

sustainable level with the result that more<br />

competitive tendering conditions are now<br />

being felt. With the smaller selection of<br />

projects available, local contractors and<br />

sub-contractors alike are reducing their<br />

overheads and margins in an attempt<br />

to secure future workload, especially<br />

since many Sydney-based companies are<br />

venturing further afield into the Canberra<br />

market. Despite continuing upward<br />

pressure on material and labour costs,<br />

overall prices increases are modest and<br />

have been somewhat camouflaged by the<br />

tighter tendering conditions and eroding<br />

margins.<br />

Contractor sentiment towards the state<br />

of the market is apprehensive and there<br />

are signs of reduced confidence in the<br />

residential and commercial sectors.<br />

However, the public sector continues<br />

to provide a consistent stream of work,<br />

somewhat offsetting the slowdown in<br />

commercial sectors.<br />

The immediate outlook is for extremely<br />

competitive market conditions, offering<br />

potential clients an excellent tendering<br />

environment in the first half of 2009.<br />

Darwin<br />

The recent announcement that<br />

international giant Inpex will be investing<br />

$12bn in a new gas plant in Darwin in two<br />

years time is keeping optimism high and<br />

the economy buoyant in the NT. Front<br />

end engineering and design for the plant<br />

will be starting soon and a Govt. task force<br />

has been formed to ensure adequate social<br />

and economic infrastructure is put in place<br />

in time for the influx of workers and their<br />

families to Darwin over the coming years.<br />

This coupled with intervention works in<br />

remote communities, continuing works on<br />

the Darwin City Waterfront Project, and<br />

continuing and upcoming Defence projects<br />

at all major NT Defence bases will see<br />

tender prices continue their upward trend.<br />

Notwithstanding the current global credit<br />

crunch, with this scale of development<br />

earmarked for Darwin, we expect the<br />

construction industry to remain strong<br />

over the coming period.<br />

Melbourne<br />

Several major commercial projects are<br />

currently running through to completion<br />

in the next six months, amidst an already<br />

tightening overall construction market.<br />

Tendering opportunities have become<br />

scarce as developers have shied away from<br />

marginal projects, due to inability to obtain<br />

finance and lack of tenant certainty. All this<br />

has given rise to cuts in contractor and subcontractor<br />

margins, set alongside increasing<br />

building materials and wages costs and<br />

further fuelled by falling exchange rates,<br />

rising utilities costs and industry awards.<br />

There remains pent-up demand for<br />

residential projects and developers are<br />

exploring options, however these are<br />

dependant upon the return of confidence<br />

in the market and ability to obtain funding.<br />

Industry clients with high liquidity of funding<br />

will find excellent competitive tendering<br />

conditions in the first half of 2009. The<br />

public sector will be particularly well-placed<br />

to obtain good pricing for projects.<br />

Perth<br />

The Western Australian economy is<br />

probably better placed than most States in<br />

Australia to weather the current economic<br />

storms. However, the extent to which<br />

China slows or slips into recession has<br />

potential to initiate a further deterioration.<br />

Most construction sectors have been<br />

similarly affected by the slowdown and<br />

forecasts are for very much reduced<br />

consumer demand in the coming period.<br />

One result has been that, although rents<br />

are at an all time high, uncertainties in the<br />

general economy and a more cautious<br />

new State Government have led to the<br />

cancellation of a number of major projects.<br />

Whilst materials costs are anticipated to<br />

continue rising, labour costs have levelled<br />

and may even be falling in some specific<br />

trades.<br />

Overall, this is the first relief from a<br />

prolonged period of price increases.<br />

Tenders are beginning to show signs of<br />

increased competitiveness returning to the<br />

market.<br />

Sydney<br />

In addition to the global and national<br />

economic problems, there is ongoing<br />

uncertainty in the Sydney market for<br />

both the short and medium term, due to<br />

a State mini budget that raised property<br />

and land taxes and reduced infrastructure<br />

expenditure as well as the Federal proposal<br />

for increased expenditure on undefined<br />

capital works projects. Contractors are<br />

very aware that the number of future<br />

projects is diminishing. Current projects<br />

are nearing completion and it is becoming<br />

increasingly difficult to replace work in<br />

hand, so Contractors and sub contractors<br />

alike are now keen to look at all tender<br />

opportunities. As a consequence, labour<br />

cost increases are being absorbed within<br />

profit margins and materials price rises<br />

are being discounted as contractors<br />

and suppliers look to secure works<br />

commencing in the new year.<br />

Reduced tendered margins are being<br />

experienced and we expect this trend to<br />

continue throughout 2009.<br />

Auckland<br />

Despite interest rate cuts since July, the<br />

Auckland residential market remains flat.<br />

Meanwhile, the other building market<br />

sectors have now become similarly<br />

affected, with demand and access to<br />

development finance rapidly declining.<br />

Only the infrastructure sector has been<br />

unaffected by the downturn, with central<br />

Government funded projects continuing<br />

through the maelstrom. Local government<br />

spending conversely is set to be slashed.<br />

Despite weak demand, building materials<br />

costs for contractors are rising, due<br />

to general cost increases coupled with<br />

the falling New Zealand dollar, which<br />

is offsetting recent falls in international<br />

commodity prices. Highly competitive<br />

market conditions however are set to<br />

remain, with contractors targeting margins<br />

and overheads to secure a limited supply<br />

of work.<br />

The constraint on this process will be the<br />

point at which deeper cuts into profit levels<br />

become unsustainable.<br />

Christchurch<br />

General economic conditions in<br />

Christchurch mirror those in Auckland,<br />

although Christchurch has several<br />

major projects currently either under<br />

construction, recently commenced (AMI<br />

Stadium and New Christchurch Civic<br />

Building) or due to commence shortly<br />

(Christchurch Airport Redevelopment).<br />

Together, they have a combined value<br />

in excess of $300 million, which will be<br />

keeping the industry relatively busy well<br />

into and possibly through 2009. However,<br />

we are noting in recent tenders, greatly<br />

increased competition and associated price<br />

cutting in terms of margins.<br />

These conditions are likely to persist in<br />

the next period as tendering opportunities<br />

continue to be adversely affected by the<br />

lack of confidence in the market and<br />

problems of financing. This is already<br />

apparent in the small to mid-size project<br />

end of the market.<br />

Wellington<br />

Wellington is also feeling the effects of<br />

the credit crunch, but is coming off a 20<br />

year high in construction volume. The<br />

excess of labour supply thus created is<br />

giving rise to competition and price cutting<br />

in the context of fewer new tendering<br />

opportunities. However, Wellington has<br />

at least six major projects commenced<br />

or about to commence, with a total<br />

value of approx $200m. Further, two<br />

major Wellington City Council (WCC)<br />

projects are currently seeking consultant<br />

submissions, with confirmation that they<br />

will proceed, and there is also the new<br />

sports stadium and extensions to the City<br />

Art Gallery.<br />

These projects plus others in mid<br />

construction will keep the workforce busy<br />

through 2009 and into 2010.<br />

17<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


<strong>International</strong> Building <strong>Cost</strong>s<br />

LOCATION<br />

LOCAL<br />

CURRENCY<br />

OFFICE BUILDING RETAIL HOTELS<br />

PREMIUM<br />

GRADE A<br />

SHOPPING<br />

STRIP<br />

CENTRE SHOPPING<br />

5 STAR 3 STAR<br />

/ m2 / m2 / m2 / m2 / m2 / m2<br />

ASIA<br />

Beijing YUAN 6200-9050 5750-8700 6900-10450 5350-6800 10350-13250 7550-9500<br />

Guangzhou YUAN 5850-8650 5450-8200 6500-9550 4900-6250 9750-12350 7150-8750<br />

Hong Kong HK$ 13050-17600 12250-16800 13900-17900 10850-13850 19950-24300 16200-18800<br />

Macau MOP 12400-17000 11550-16100 13600-17000 19650-24100 15700-18700<br />

Shanghai YUAN 6050-8900 5550-8450 6800-10250 5250-6700 10150-13100 7550-9300<br />

Shenzhen YUAN 5850-8650 5450-8200 6500-9550 4900-6250 9750-12350 7150-8750<br />

Singapore S$ 2250-4250 2150-3200 2400-3450 3500-5000 2900-3350<br />

Jakarta IDR ('000) 8930-11280 7230-9300 6570-7550 12680-16000 10300-12250<br />

Ho Chi Minh City VND ('000) 16000-20000 14440-17500 12900-17500 20800-25500 16000-20550<br />

Seoul KRW (‘000s) 1820-2210 1370-1670 1040-1260 720-880 2460-3000 1400-1710<br />

Phillippines Php (‘000s) 35-40 28-32 28-34 24-28 45-60 38-42<br />

Kuala Lumpur RM 2000-3500 1700-2700 1500-3000 1100-1700 3800-4500 2000-2800<br />

Bangkok Baht (‘000) 30-38 28-30 25-30 20-25 52-67 35-40<br />

EMEA<br />

Birmingham GBP 1920-2500 1490-1920 2690-4130 670-910 1920-2500 1340-1820<br />

Bristol GBP 2020-2590 1540-2020 2780-4320 720-960 2020-2880 1390-1920<br />

Dubai AED 7900-9500 6300-7900 5200-6300 10000-12600 7300-8900<br />

London GBP 2300-2980 1780-2300 3170-4940 820-1100 2300-2980 1580-2210<br />

Manchester GBP 1970-2500 1490-1970 2690-4180 720-910 1970-2500 1340-1870<br />

Sheffield GBP 1870-2400 1440-1820 2590-3980 670-860 1870-2400 1300-1680<br />

OCEANIA<br />

Adelaide $AUD 2490-3580 2290-2780 1140-1640 1190-1340 3180-3830 2680-3080<br />

Auckland $NZ 2850-3260 2600-3160 1070-1840 820-1330 3570-4390 2200-2600<br />

Brisbane $AUD 2650-4050 2100-3150 1200-2090 1100-1600 3400-4550 2650-3800<br />

Canberra $AUD 3010-3690 2310-2880 1450-1750 1130-1700 3530-4130 2220-3070<br />

Christchurch $NZ 2725-3120 2500-3020 910-1400 645-1285 3400-4250 2145-2680<br />

Darwin $AUD 3470-4470 2680-3380 1160-1690 1040-1590 3670-4470 2230-2980<br />

Melbourne $AUD 2900-3600 2250-2800 1500-2000 900-1400 3600-4100 2800-3300<br />

Perth $AUD 3400-4700 2800-3500 1650-2400 1400-1900 4050-5070 2800-4200<br />

Sydney $AUD 3120-3900 2370-2800 1250-2000 1200-1500 3620-4500 2510-3010<br />

Wellington $NZ 2900-3300 2300-2600 1050-1650 850-1350 3600-4400 2400-2800<br />

USA<br />

Boston $USD 2420-3770 1880-2690 1610-2690 1350-2150 3230-4310 2150-3230<br />

Denver $USD 1510-2420 1080-1610 910-1450 700-1350 1990-3010 1130-1780<br />

Honolulu $USD 2370-4200 1990-3390 1670-4040 1400-3610 4200-5700 2690-4630<br />

Las Vegas $USD 1940-2420 1450-2050 1350-2100 1020-1560 2580-3880 1720-2310<br />

Los Angeles $USD 2050-3280 1400-2210 1290-2210 970-1510 2690-3610 1940-2690<br />

Phoenix $USD 1830-2690 1400-2050 1080-1720 970-1510 2260-3500 1510-2050<br />

Portland $USD 1990-2260 1450-2050 1290-2150 970-1610 2050-3070 1610-1990<br />

San Francisco $USD 2210-3440 1510-2310 1350-2530 1180-1780 2740-3770 2150-2910<br />

Seattle $USD 1780-2530 1240-2150 970-1830 970-1450 2370-3230 1670-2370<br />

Washington DC $USD 1830-3440 1510-2150 1020-2150 810-1510 2100-3340 1450-2050<br />

NY Region $USD 2480-3340 1940-2690 1400-1990 1290-1830 3500-4840 1990-2850<br />

18<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


LOCATION<br />

LOCAL<br />

CURRENCY<br />

CAR PARKING INDUSTRIAL RESIDENTIAL MULTI-STOREY<br />

MULTI-STOREY BASEMENT FACTORY WAREHOUSE INVESTMENT<br />

OWNER<br />

OCCUPIED<br />

/ m2 / m2 / m2 / m2 / m2 / m2<br />

ASIA<br />

Beijing YUAN 1850-2450 2900-5150 2000-2800 2350-3400 2900-3400 3400-4650<br />

Guangzhou YUAN 1750-2300 2900-5100 1850-2550 2250-3350 2700-3100 3100-4250<br />

Hong Kong HK$ 5250-6100 8800-12800 6000-7000 6750-8200 9750-11800 11500-14450<br />

Macau MOP 5950-7900 7000-9450 8600-13650<br />

Shanghai YUAN 1850-2450 3150-5350 1950-2750 2350-3450 2900-3350 3350-4550<br />

Shenzhen YUAN 1750-2300 2900-5100 1850-2550 2250-3350 2700-3100 3100-4250<br />

Singapore S$ 680-1350 1450-2300 1160-1620 1000-1660 2000-2580 2450-4280<br />

Jakarta IDR ('000) 2650-3700 3700-4700 4250-5200 3700-4700 5200-6800 6150-8500<br />

Ho Chi Minh City VND ('000) 6050-9150 12200-16800 6050-7700 6050-7950 10650-13000 11500-15400<br />

Seoul KRW (‘000s) 510-640 670-830 720-880 650-790 880-1070 1170-1430<br />

Phillippines Php (‘000s) 18-20 20-24 27-30 24-28 34-38 36-40<br />

Kuala Lumpur RM 700-1000 1100-1500 950-1500 950-1400 1200-2200 1500-3000<br />

Bangkok Baht (‘000) 10-13 15-18 14-19 13-18 28-38 30-38<br />

EMEA<br />

Birmingham GBP 340-430 720-860 340-480 340-480 910-1490 1490-1920<br />

Bristol GBP 340-480 770-960 340-480 340-480 960-1540 1540-2020<br />

Dubai AED 2600-3150 3150-3700 3150-4700 5000-6300 6300-8900<br />

London GBP 380-480 860-1060 380-530 380-530 1300-1800 1780-2300<br />

Manchester GBP 340-430 720-860 340-480 340-480 910-1490 1490-1970<br />

Sheffield GBP 340-580 770-960 290-580 290-580 1100-1440 1440-1870<br />

OCEANIA<br />

Adelaide $AUD 620-770 940-1320 600-750 500-720 2140-2580 2190-2980<br />

Auckland $NZ 670-1020 1070-1480 460-870 460-820 2550-3050 2550-3750<br />

Brisbane $AUD 600-850 850-1800 630-1050 630-1050 2150-3260 2100-3590<br />

Canberra $AUD 640-880 790-1190 790-920 770-920 2340-2870 2650-3240<br />

Christchurch $NZ 635-970 965-1395 485-750 375-645 2435-2910 2500-3120<br />

Darwin $AUD 690-990 820-1190 750-1270 680-1090 2580-3230 2880-3470<br />

Melbourne $AUD 600-1000 950-1300 500-900 500-950 2400-3100 2700-3450<br />

Perth $AUD 720-1190 1050-1550 670-1100 670-1100 2900-4000 3200-4900<br />

Sydney $AUD 555-880 900-1360 625-850 650-850 2160-2730 2360-4500<br />

Wellington $NZ 700-1100 1200-1400 650-950 690-950 2650-3150 2650-3240<br />

USA<br />

Boston $USD 650-860 810-1080 1080-1610 910-1610 2150-3770 1610-2690<br />

Denver $USD 430-750 700-1020 650-970 750-1670 700-1990<br />

Honolulu $USD 750-1290 1080-1940 1180-3230 1180-1880 1720-3440 2310-6460<br />

Las Vegas $USD 590-910 700-1080 700-1020 650-970 860-2050 1080-2480<br />

Los Angeles $USD 540-970 910-1400 810-1290 700-910 1350-2310 1240-2690<br />

Phoenix $USD 590-750 810-970 750-1080 650-970 910-2260 1080-2580<br />

Portland $USD 860-1080 970-1450 910-1510 860-1180 1290-2420 1450-2530<br />

San Francisco $USD 700-1080 970-1450 1020-1450 750-1080 1510-2530 1400-3340<br />

Seattle $USD 700-910 1240-1400 650-1080 590-970 1290-2690 1290-2690<br />

Washington DC $USD 600-910 790-1160 940-1610 830-1000 1350-1890 1450-2370<br />

NY Region $USD 750-1130 910-1240 1720-2690 1080-1510 1670-2530 2800-4140<br />

19<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


Key Statistics<br />

AUSTRALIA<br />

YEAR<br />

2005 2006 2007 2008 (P) 2009 (F) 2010 (F)<br />

GDP 2.5 % 2.9 % 4.4 % 2.5 % 1.7 % 2.7 %<br />

GDP per Capita $46,660 $47,263 $48,554 $49,078 $49,560 $50,452<br />

Exchange Rate (to 5 December to US$) 1.338 1.270 1.142 1.548<br />

PPP rate 1.388 1.407 1.425 1.471 1.500 1.507<br />

Inflation 2.8 % 2.9 % 3.0 % 4.6 % 3.3 % 2.4 %<br />

Unemployment 5.0 % 4.8 % 4.4 % 4.3 % 5.3 % 6.0 %<br />

CHINA<br />

YEAR<br />

2005 2006 2007 2008 (P) 2009 (F) 2010 (F)<br />

GDP 10.4 % 11.1 % 11.4 % 9.5 % 8.0 % 9.2 %<br />

GDP per Capita 6,041 Yuan 6,676 Yuan 7,400 Yuan 8,206 Yuan 8,920 Yuan 9,650 Yuan<br />

Exchange Rate (to 5 December to US$) 8.082 7.838 7.408 6.894<br />

PPP rate 3.448 3.450 3.528 3.694 3.793 3.882<br />

Inflation 1.8 % 1.5 % 4.8 % 6.1 % 3.0 % 2.5 %<br />

Unemployment N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A<br />

UNITED ARAB EMIRATES<br />

YEAR<br />

2005 2006 2007 2008 (P) 2009 (F) 2010 (F)<br />

GDP 8.2 % 9.4 % 7.4 % 7.0 % 6.0 % 5.6 %<br />

GDP per Capita AED87,089 AED92,495 AED93,628 AED94,350 AED95,152 AED94,906<br />

Exchange Rate (to 5 December to US$) 3.674 3.674 3.673 3.674<br />

PPP rate 3.632 3.952 4.228 5.326 5.376 5.631<br />

Inflation 7.9 % 9.3 % 11.0 % 12.9 % 10.8 % 8.1 %<br />

Unemployment N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A<br />

EURO ZONE<br />

YEAR<br />

2005 2006 2007 2008 (P) 2009 (F) 2010 (F)<br />

GDP 1.6 % 2.8 % 2.6 % 1.0 % -0.6 % 1.2 %<br />

GDP per Capita (Int $) $29,833 $31,445 $32,939 $33,882 $34,331 $35,164<br />

Exchange Rate (to 5 December to US$) 0.854 0.751 0.681 0.788<br />

PPP rate N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A<br />

Inflation 2.2 % 1.9 % 3.1 % 2.9 % 1.7 % 1.9 %<br />

Unemployment 8.6 % 8.2 % 7.4 % 7.6 % 8.3 % 7.4 %<br />

Definitions<br />

GDP: Gross domestic product, constant prices (Annual percent change)<br />

GDP per Capita: Gross domestic product per capita, constant prices (National currency)<br />

PPP rate: Purchasing Power Parity rate of exchange<br />

Inflation: Consumer Price Inflation<br />

Unemployment: Percentage of total workforce<br />

Exchange Rate as at 5 December 2008<br />

Annual percentages of constant price GDP are year-on-year changes; the base year is country-specific.<br />

GDP in constant national currency per person. Data derived by dividing constant price GDP by total population.<br />

Rate against the <strong>International</strong> dollar (USD), which renders purchasing power identical to the international dollar.<br />

20<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


NEW ZEALAND<br />

YEAR<br />

2005 2006 2007 2008 (P) 2009 (F) 2010 (F)<br />

GDP 2.7 % 2.0 % 2.6 % -0.5 % -0.4 % 1.9 %<br />

GDP per Capita $30,833 $30,933 $31,535 $31,689 $31,811 $32,175<br />

Exchange Rate (to 5 December to US$) 1.403 1.455 1.311 1.876<br />

PPP rate 1.535 1.535 1.558 1.580 1.631 1.647<br />

Inflation 3.2 % 2.6 % 3.2 % 4.0 % 2.3 % 2.1 %<br />

Unemployment 3.7 % 3.8 % 3.6 % 4.0 % 5.4 % 6.0 %<br />

SINGAPORE<br />

YEAR<br />

2005 2006 2007 2008 (P) 2009 (F) 2010 (F)<br />

GDP 7.3 % 8.2 % 7.7 % 2.5 % 0.5 % 3.0 %<br />

GDP per Capita $46,098 $48,328 $49,933 $50,854 $51,709 $53,478<br />

Exchange Rate (to 5 December to US$) 1.689 1.543 1.448 1.526<br />

PPP rate 1.079 1.052 1.066 1.092 1.098 1.098<br />

Inflation 0.5 % 1.0 % 2.1 % 6.0 % 1.5 % N/A<br />

Unemployment 3.1 % 2.7 % 2.4 % 3.5 % 3.5 % 3.0 %<br />

UNITED KINGDOM<br />

YEAR<br />

2005 2006 2007 2008 (P) 2009 (F) 2010 (F)<br />

GDP 1.8 % 2.9 % 3.1 % 0.8 % -1.1 % 0.9 %<br />

GDP per Capita £19,528 £19,991 £20,512 £20,959 £20,891 £21,105<br />

Exchange Rate (to 5 December to US$) 0.577 0.506 0.485 0.680<br />

PPP rate 0.649 0.646 0.648 0.651 0.658 0.662<br />

Inflation 2.0 % 2.3 % 2.5 % 2.1 % 2.0 % 2.0 %<br />

Unemployment 4.8 % 5.4 % 5.4 % 5.4 % 6.0 % 5.4 %<br />

USA<br />

YEAR<br />

2005 2006 2007 2008 (P) 2009 (F) 2010 (F)<br />

GDP 3.1 % 2.9 % 2.2 % 1.4 % -0.9 % 1.6 %<br />

GDP per Capita $37,141 $37,848 $38,306 $38,400 $38,045 $38,437<br />

Exchange Rate (to 5 December to US$) 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000<br />

PPP rate 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000 1.000<br />

Inflation 3.4 % 3.2 % 2.9 % 2.0 % 1.8 % 1.7 %<br />

Unemployment 5.1 % 4.6 % 4.6 % 5.6 % 6.9 % 6.3 %<br />

21<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


Project Profile:<br />

Lumiere Residences<br />

Location<br />

Client<br />

Approximate <strong>Cost</strong><br />

Regent Place, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia<br />

Frasers Property Australia<br />

AUD$300 million<br />

Completion Date 2008<br />

Sector<br />

Mixed use (residential and retail)<br />

Overview<br />

<strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong> has been involved in<br />

the construction of many of the world’s<br />

landmark tall buildings which form the<br />

skyline of some of our major cities. One<br />

example of such an iconic building is<br />

Lumiere Residences, recently constructed<br />

in Regent Place in Sydney’s mid-town.<br />

Lumiere consists of two towers – Tower<br />

A providing 456 residential apartments<br />

over 56 levels, and Tower B featuring 145<br />

serviced apartments over 30 floors. A five<br />

level sandstone podium beneath the towers<br />

contains a retail centre, commercial space<br />

and Club Lumiere, a leisure and fitness<br />

centre for Lumiere residents.<br />

The project’s renowned architects, Foster<br />

+ Partners, designed the development with<br />

environmental concerns and residents’<br />

privacy in mind. The construction consists<br />

of eight slender glass towers connected to<br />

a central core which allows sunlight and<br />

cross-ventilation to reach to the very heart<br />

of the building. This feature has reduced<br />

the use of common walls allowing residents<br />

a true sense of privacy.<br />

Our Role<br />

Tall buildings first emerged in the United<br />

States in the late 19th century and are<br />

today worldwide architectural phenomenon<br />

requiring increasingly complex construction<br />

knowledge and expertise.<br />

<strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong> has extensive<br />

experience in the construction of tall<br />

buildings and are proud to have provided<br />

Frasers Property Australia with the<br />

following services during the creation of<br />

Lumiere Residences:<br />

• Estimating and strategic cost planning<br />

• Post-contract Project <strong>Cost</strong><br />

Certification<br />

• Production of financier’s reports<br />

• Provision of tax advice<br />

• Replacement cost exercises<br />

• Review and certification of progress<br />

claims<br />

Testimonial<br />

Michael Goldrick, Project Director for<br />

Frasers Property Australia, commented<br />

that:<br />

“During the works I found all [<strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong><br />

<strong>Bucknall</strong>] staff very professional and cooperative<br />

in their approach to the various<br />

tasks allocated to the company. I would<br />

have no hesitation recommending and<br />

appointing <strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong> again”.<br />

Images Courtesy of Frasers Property Australia<br />

22<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


<strong>Rider</strong> <strong>Levett</strong> <strong>Bucknall</strong> Offices<br />

OCEANIA<br />

Australia<br />

Adelaide<br />

Telephone: + 61 8 8100 1200<br />

E-mail: adelaide@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Stephen Knight<br />

Brisbane<br />

Telephone: + 61 7 3009 6933<br />

E-mail: brisbane@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Mark Burow<br />

Cairns<br />

Telephone: + 61 7 4032 1533<br />

E-mail: cairns@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Bill Wilkes<br />

Canberra<br />

Telephone: + 61 2 6281 5446<br />

E-mail: canberra@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Mark Chappè<br />

Darwin<br />

Telephone: + 61 8 8941 2262<br />

E-mail: darwin@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Paul Lassemillante<br />

Gold Coast<br />

Telephone: + 61 7 5595 6900<br />

E-mail: goldcoast@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Peter Spencer<br />

Melbourne<br />

Telephone: + 61 3 9690 6111<br />

E-mail: melbourne@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Michael Kerr<br />

Newcastle<br />

Telephone: + 61 2 4940 0000<br />

E-mail: newcastle@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Matthew Harris<br />

Northern NSW<br />

Telephone + 61 2 6659 2060<br />

E-mail: northernnsw@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Matthew Harris<br />

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Telephone: + 61 8 9421 1230<br />

E-mail: perth@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Alastair McMichael<br />

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Telephone: + 61 7 5443 3622<br />

E-mail: suncoast@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Mark Brittain<br />

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Telephone: + 61 2 9922 2277<br />

E-mail: sydney@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Bob Richardson<br />

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Telephone: + 61 7 4771 5718<br />

E-mail: townsville@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Chris Marais<br />

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Telephone + 61 2 9806 0044<br />

E-mail: westsyd@au.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Gary Train<br />

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Telephone: + 64 9 309 1074<br />

E-mail: auckland@nz.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Brian Dackers<br />

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Telephone: + 64 3 365 0590<br />

E-mail: christchurch@nz.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Malcolm Timms<br />

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Telephone: + 64 3 409 0325<br />

E-mail: otago@nz.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Chris Haines<br />

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Telephone: + 64 6 357 0326<br />

E-mail: palmerstonnorth@nz.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Wayne Kitching<br />

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Telephone: + 64 7 579 5873<br />

E-mail: tauranga@nz.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Richard Gerrish<br />

Wellington<br />

Telephone: + 64 4 384 9198<br />

E-mail: wellington@nz.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Hugh Mackenzie<br />

ASIA<br />

China<br />

Beijing<br />

Telephone: + 86 10 6515 5818<br />

E-mail: beijing@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: S. W. Lo<br />

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Telephone: + 86 28 8670 3382<br />

E-mail: chengdu@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Stephen Liu<br />

Dalian<br />

Telephone: + 86 411 3973 7778<br />

E-mail: dalian@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: S.W.Lo<br />

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Telephone: + 86 20 8732 1801<br />

E-mail: guangzhou@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Kenneth Kwan<br />

Guiyang<br />

Telephone: + 86 851 553 3818<br />

E-mail: guiyang@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: K.M.Chau<br />

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Telephone: + 852 2823 1823<br />

E-mail: hongkong@hk.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Philip Lo<br />

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Telephone: + 853 2875 3088<br />

E-mail: macau@mo.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Kenneth Kwan<br />

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Telephone: + 86 898 8898 7866<br />

E-mail: sanya@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Stephen Lai<br />

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Telephone: + 86 21 6330 1999<br />

E-mail: shanghai@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Stephen Lai<br />

Shenyang<br />

Telephone: + 86 24 2396 5516<br />

E-mail: shenyang@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: C.H.Chan<br />

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Telephone: + 86 755 8246 0959<br />

E-mail: shenzhen@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Kenneth Kwan<br />

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Telephone: + 86 22 2339 6632<br />

E-mail: tianjin@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: S.W.Lo<br />

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E-mail: wuhan@cn.rlb.com<br />

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Telephone: + 86 510 8274 0266<br />

E-mail: wuxi@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Stephen Lai<br />

Xian<br />

Telephone: + 86 29 8833 7433<br />

E-mail: xian@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Stephen Liu<br />

Zhuhai<br />

Telephone: + 86 756 388 9010<br />

E-mail: zhuhai@cn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Kenneth Kwan<br />

Indonesia<br />

Jakarta<br />

Telephone: + 65 6339 1500<br />

E-mail: rlb@sg.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Christopher Leong<br />

Malaysia<br />

Kuala Lumpur<br />

Telephone: + 60 3 2282 8838<br />

E-mail: ymfkl@tm.net.my<br />

Contact: Kang Kian Kiat<br />

Kota Kinabalu<br />

Telephone: + 60 8 821 1626<br />

Contact: Chin Hon Kong<br />

Philippines<br />

Manila<br />

Telephone: + 63 2 634 0535<br />

+ 63 2 634 3124<br />

+ 63 2 667 3579<br />

E-mail: rhl@rhl.com.ph<br />

Contact: Cora Ballard<br />

Singapore<br />

Singapore<br />

Telephone: + 65 6339 1500<br />

E-mail: rlb@sg.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Winston Hauw<br />

South Korea<br />

Seoul<br />

Telephone: + 82 2 582 2834<br />

E-mail: seoul@kr.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Stephen Lai<br />

Thailand<br />

Bangkok<br />

Telephone: + 66 2 234 4933<br />

E-mail: rhlbthai@riderhunt.co.th<br />

Contact: William Lo<br />

Vietnam<br />

Ho Chi Minh City<br />

Telephone: + 84 83 997 3422<br />

E-mail: rlb@vn.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Lam Chye Shing<br />

AMERICAS<br />

Canada<br />

Calgary<br />

Telephone: + 1 403 571 0505<br />

E-mail: YYC@ca.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Cameron Greene<br />

Toronto<br />

Telephone: + 1 416 214 3405<br />

E-mail: YYZ@ca.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Anil Ramjee<br />

Caribbean<br />

Grand Cayman<br />

Telephone: + 1 345 946 6063<br />

E-mail: martyn.bould@ky.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Martyn Bould<br />

USA<br />

Boston<br />

Telephone: + 1 617 737 9339<br />

E-mail: BOS@us.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Grant Owen<br />

Chicago<br />

Telephone: + 1 312 558 3106<br />

E-mail: ORD@us.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Barbara McGill<br />

Denver<br />

Telephone: + 1 720 904 1480<br />

E-mail: DEN@us.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Peter Knowles<br />

Honolulu<br />

Telephone: + 1 808 521 2641<br />

E-mail: HNL@us.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Tony Smith / Paul Brussow /<br />

Maelyn Uyehara<br />

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London<br />

Telephone: + 1 808 883 3379 Telephone: + 44 207 398 8300<br />

E-mail: KOA@us.rlb.com E-mail: london@uk.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Kevin Mitchell Contact: Tony Catchpole<br />

Las Vegas<br />

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Telephone: + 1 702 227 8818 Telephone: + 44 161 868 7700<br />

E-mail: LAS@us.rlb.com E-mail: manchester@uk.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Andrew Field Contact: Phil Higham<br />

Los Angeles<br />

Newcastle Upon Tyne<br />

Telephone: + 1 213 689 1103 Telephone: + 44 870 770 9830<br />

E-mail: LAX@us.rlb.com E-mail: newcastle@uk.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Gus Oppermann Contact: Dean Sheehy<br />

New York<br />

Sheffield<br />

Telephone: + 1 212 952 1300 Telephone: + 44 114 289 5000<br />

E-mail: LGA@us.rlb.com E-mail: sheffield@uk.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Jay Weisberg Contact: Dean Sheehy<br />

Phoenix<br />

Warton<br />

Telephone: + 1 602 443 4848 Telephone: + 44 177 285 6801<br />

E-mail: PHX@us.rlb.com E-mail: warton@uk.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Julian Anderson / Contact: Steve Aikman<br />

Scott Macpherson Welwyn Garden City<br />

Portland<br />

Telephone: + 44 170 787 1506<br />

Telephone: + 1 503 226 2730 E-mail: welwyn@uk.rlb.com<br />

E-mail: PDX@us.rlb.com Contact: Andrew Reynolds<br />

Contact: Graham Roy<br />

Wokingham<br />

San Francisco<br />

Telephone: + 44 118 974 3600<br />

Telephone: + 1 415 362 2613 E-mail: wokingham@uk.rlb.com<br />

E-mail: SFO@us.rlb.com Contact: Simon Kerton<br />

Contact: Gus Oppermann EUROPE<br />

Seattle<br />

RLB EuroAlliance<br />

Telephone: + 1 206 223 2055<br />

Contact: Mike Staples<br />

E-mail: SEA@us.rlb.com<br />

Telephone: +44 7774 667177<br />

Contact: Simon Squire<br />

E-mail: mike.staples@uk.rlb.com<br />

Washington DC<br />

Telephone: + 1 202 654 1729<br />

E-mail: DCA@us.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Robert Giles<br />

EMEA<br />

MIDDLE EAST<br />

Abu Dhabi<br />

Telephone: + 97 1 2676 6172<br />

E-mail: silas.loh@sg.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Silas Loh<br />

Dubai<br />

Telephone: + 97 1 4801 9100<br />

E-mail: dubai@ae.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Ken Barlow<br />

Muscat<br />

Telephone: + 968 2449 9676<br />

E-mail: stephan.lai@hk.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Stephen Lai<br />

UK<br />

Birchwood, Warrington<br />

Telephone: + 44 777 198 6099<br />

E-mail: deryck.barton@uk.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Deryck Barton<br />

Birmingham<br />

Telephone: + 44 121 503 1500<br />

E-mail: birmingham@uk.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Mark Weaver<br />

Bristol<br />

Telephone: + 44 117 974 1122<br />

E-mail: bristol@uk.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Mark Williamson<br />

Edinburgh<br />

Telephone: + 44 131 554 3300<br />

E-mail: edinburgh@uk.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Peter Docherty<br />

Liverpool<br />

Telephone: + 44 151 225 0264<br />

E-mail: liverpool@uk.rlb.com<br />

Contact: Phil Higham<br />

23<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009


Global Tender Price Index<br />

Comparison<br />

LONDON 151<br />

YEAR TPI (%) CPI (%) NATIONAL<br />

2004 4.0% 1.3%<br />

2005 4.5% 2.0%<br />

2006 5.0% 2.3%<br />

2007 6.0% 2.5%<br />

2008 (P) 4.0% 2.1%<br />

2009 (F) -4.0% 2.0%<br />

2010 (F) -0.5% 2.0%<br />

NEW YORK 154<br />

YEAR TPI (%) CPI (%) NATIONAL<br />

2004 8.6% 2.7%<br />

2005 8.1% 3.4%<br />

2006 9.5% 3.2%<br />

2007 9.0% 2.9%<br />

2008 (P) 4.0% 2.0%<br />

2009 (F) 2.0% 1.8%<br />

2010 (F) 3.0% 1.7%<br />

BEIJING 78<br />

YEAR TPI (%) CPI (%) NATIONAL<br />

2004 -1.5% 3.9%<br />

2005 2.0% 1.8%<br />

2006 3.0% 1.5%<br />

2007 9.0% 4.8%<br />

2008 (P) 5.0% 5.0%<br />

2009 (F) 0.0% 2.0%<br />

2010 (F) 2.0% 2.0%<br />

HONG KONG 107<br />

YEAR TPI (%) CPI (%) NATIONAL<br />

2004 1.0% -0.4%<br />

2005 5.0% 1.0%<br />

2006 10.0% 2.0%<br />

2007 13.0% 2.0%<br />

2008 (P) 8.0% 3.0%<br />

2009 (F) -6.0% 0.0%<br />

2010 (F) 0.0% 2.0%<br />

SINGAPORE 112<br />

YEAR TPI (%) CPI (%) NATIONAL<br />

2004 2.3% 1.7%<br />

2005 3.4% 0.5%<br />

2006 3.3% 1.0%<br />

2007 26.3% 2.1%<br />

2008 (P) 15.0% 6.0%<br />

2009 (F) -10.0% 1.5%<br />

2010 (F) N/A N/A<br />

DUBAI 110<br />

YEAR TPI (%) CPI (%) NATIONAL<br />

2004 12.0% 5.0%<br />

2005 15.0% 7.9%<br />

2006 20.0% 9.3%<br />

2007 18.0% 11.0%<br />

2008 (P) 15.0% 12.9%<br />

2009 (F) 7.0% 10.8%<br />

SYDNEY 109<br />

YEAR TPI (%) CPI (%) NATIONAL<br />

2004 7.0% 2.6%<br />

2005 4.5% 2.8%<br />

2006 4.5% 2.9%<br />

2007 3.5% 3.0%<br />

2008 (P) 4.5% 4.6%<br />

2009 (F) 3.0% 3.3%<br />

2010 (F) 4.0% 2.4%<br />

AUCKLAND 98<br />

YEAR TPI (%) CPI (%) NATIONAL<br />

2004 10.0% 2.7%<br />

2005 5.0% 3.2%<br />

2006 4.0% 2.6%<br />

2007 1.0% 3.2%<br />

2008 (P) 1.0% 4.0%<br />

2009 (F) 2.0% 2.3%<br />

2010 (F) 3.0% 2.1%<br />

KEY<br />

CPI = Consumer Price Index<br />

TPI = Tender Price Index<br />

N/A = Not Available<br />

F = Forecast<br />

P = Provisional<br />

24<br />

INTERNATIONAL CONSTRUCTION COST COMMENTARY: January 2009

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