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activities are subject to the Act’s g<strong>en</strong>eral authorization provisions, which are triggered “upon request”<br />

by project propon<strong>en</strong>ts within specified geographic regions. As NMFS interprets this language, it is the<br />

project propon<strong>en</strong>t who decides the scope of authorization, and the propon<strong>en</strong>t can group his activities<br />

together or segm<strong>en</strong>t them into smaller units. Various user groups have tak<strong>en</strong> advantage of the ag<strong>en</strong>cy’s<br />

liberality by dividing their activities into smaller segm<strong>en</strong>ts, effectively avoiding cumulative impact review<br />

under the statute. The Apache Alaska Corporation, in what is perhaps the most egregious of rec<strong>en</strong>t<br />

examples, split a three- to five-year airgun exploration survey—taking place mostly within the critical<br />

habitat of an <strong>en</strong>dangered and declining beluga whale population—into a sequ<strong>en</strong>ce of less legally<br />

objectionable single-year surveys. Nonetheless, NMFS <strong>en</strong>courages user groups, particularly other federal<br />

ag<strong>en</strong>cies such as the U.S. Navy and Bureau of Ocean Energy Managem<strong>en</strong>t, to undertake programmatic<br />

regional reviews and, over the next few years, is attempting itself to develop compreh<strong>en</strong>sive, multisector<br />

noise managem<strong>en</strong>t policy.<br />

For cumulative impacts, the much-desired holy grail is a compreh<strong>en</strong>sive, quantitative model, such as the<br />

Population Consequ<strong>en</strong>ces of Acoustic Disturbance model originally proposed by a National Research<br />

Council panel in 2005. That model begins with acoustic output and runs through a series of transfer<br />

functions to effects on individual vital rates and, ultimately, to populations. The Office of Naval Research<br />

has led a multi-year project to realize the model, using a handful of well-studied marine mammal<br />

populations as the basis of its pilot studies; but producing an operative model is the work of decades, at<br />

best. In the meantime, proxies are needed for adverse population-level impacts. For most U.S. cetacean<br />

populations, as Taylor et al. (2007) observed, there is a high probability that ev<strong>en</strong> a precipitous<br />

population decline (50% over fifte<strong>en</strong> years) would go undetected giv<strong>en</strong> pres<strong>en</strong>t efforts; and the<br />

literature (e.g., Goldhag<strong>en</strong> et al., 2<strong>01</strong>3; Hatch et al., 2<strong>01</strong>2; Miller et al., 2009; Moore and Barlow, 2<strong>01</strong>3)<br />

increasingly justifies concern that noise is negatively affecting marine mammals at the population or<br />

species level.<br />

Regulators and managers should establish conservative proxies for population impacts. Such proxies<br />

may be based, for example, on the perc<strong>en</strong>tage of a population exposed to certain levels of noise, as was<br />

the case of the Environm<strong>en</strong>tal Impact Report prepared on the C<strong>en</strong>tral Coastal California Seismic Imaging<br />

Project (Wood et al., 2<strong>01</strong>2). Or they may be based on existing baselines of exposure, on the assumption<br />

that curr<strong>en</strong>t levels of acoustic exposure are harmful and should be reduced over time. One leading<br />

example of this approach is the 2008 Hamburg Statem<strong>en</strong>t, which called for a gradual reduction of global<br />

ambi<strong>en</strong>t noise <strong>en</strong>ergy in the 10-300 Hz band relative to curr<strong>en</strong>t levels (Wright ed., 2008). Additionally,<br />

regulators and managers should require, over the life of major projects, monitoring with a significant<br />

capacity to detect abundance tr<strong>en</strong>ds in vulnerable populations.<br />

(3) Evolve beyond the near field.—For most jurisdictions, the common d<strong>en</strong>ominator in noise mitigation is<br />

the use of a “safety zone,” which requires powering or shutting down a powerful sound source if marine<br />

mammals are detected within a short distance. The U.S. helped pioneer the safety zone in the 1980s and<br />

1990s, initially in reducing injury risk from seismic airgun exploration in the Arctic and off the California<br />

coast, th<strong>en</strong> in addressing risk from naval training, pile driving, and other activities. Today the majority of<br />

managem<strong>en</strong>t <strong>en</strong>ergy is sp<strong>en</strong>t on designing protocols for safety zone maint<strong>en</strong>ance and ramp-up. This is<br />

true ev<strong>en</strong> though the impact radius around most powerful sources vastly exceeds the narrow band of<br />

waterspace that safety zones and ramp-up are designed to protect (e.g., Fleishman and Streever, 2<strong>01</strong>2).<br />

27

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