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Box 10. Climate change projections in Ghana
• Temperature
The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 1.0 to 3.0°C by the 2060s, and 1.5 to
5.2°C by the 2090s. The range of projections by the 2090s under any one emissions scenario is
around 1.5-2.5°C. The projected rate of warming is most rapid in the northern inland regions of
Ghana than the coastal regions. All projections indicate substantial increases in the frequency of
days and nights that are considered ‘hot’ in current climate, but the range of projections between
different models is large.
• Precipitation
Projections of mean annual rainfall averaged over the country from different models suggest a
wide range of changes in precipitation for Ghana, with around half the models projecting an
increase, and half projecting a decrease.
• Other information
The coastal regions of Ghana may be vulnerable to sea-level rise. Sea-level rise in this region is
projected to rise by the following levels by the 2090s, relative to 1980-1999 sea-level:
– 0.13 to 0.43 m, or
– 0.16 to 0.53 m, or
– 18 to 0.56 m
Source: C. McSweeney, M. New and G. Lizcano (2011), UNDP Climate Change Country Profiles: Ghana
http://ncsp.undp.org/document/undp-climate-change-country-profile-11
Ultimately, the fact that Ghana is projected to “become hotter and wetter during the wet season and drier
during the dry season, with increased sea level rise and storm surges” 42 evidences the high degree of the
country’s vulnerability in both inland and coastal areas. This heightened vulnerability can be illustrated
through a number of examples linked to the different geographic areas of the country, its economic sectors,
vulnerable groups or resources, among others.
The following sectoral examples illustrate the complexity of the challenges posed by climate change in
Ghana:
a) Agriculture and food security
Considering that approximately 70 per cent of the population depends directly or indirectly on agriculture
(e.g., fisheries, crop and animal farming, etc.) as well as on the forest sector for timber and non- timber
products, agriculture and food security are particularly vulnerable to climatic changes and extremes. Key
economic assets such as cocoa, seed cotton, tobacco, maize, coconut and bananas, among others, are
subject to shifting climatic trends and unpredictability, and thus, their affectation (in particular that of
cereals that are not tolerant to drought) compromises the main source of livelihoods of the majority of
Ghana’s population.
b) Water resources
Due to Ghana’s high dependency on natural resources, an increasing population growth rate and
urbanization patterns, water resources are facing significant challenges with the advent of more frequent
and intense climatic events. Periods of drought and flooding pose stress on the availability of water for
domestic use, which in turn has been linked to the spread of diseases, negative impacts on industrial
applications, hydro-electric generation, and food security.
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