marine board report - Off Soundings

Tendency:
Icing:
Forecast:
Falling
None
Valid from 0500 Sunday, April 1, 2001, to 0500 on Monday,
April 2, 2001, Gale Warning, east wind 25-35, increasing to
east and northeast 35-45 knots Sunday night, and seas 10-16
feet building to 16-24 feet by Monday.
This forecast was revised using the 176° W longitude line as the boundary separating the two for
the new forecast zones. East of the 176° longitude line a new forecast was issued at 2000
Sunday, April 1, 2001 valid through 1700 April 2, 2001 predicting a Gale Warning with
southeast winds increasing to 45 knots, and seas 15 - 20 feet.
Figure 19
National Weather Service Surface Analysis for 4am April 2, 2001
The red star marks the approximate position of the ARCTIC ROSE
The generated forecast by the NWS covers a large area and unfortunately leads to ambiguous
forecasts. This is due to the lack of data buoys and weather stations in the Bering Sea region.
The NWS attempts to compensate for the lack of information by generating forecasts which tend
to be conservative in nature. Many times these forecasts call for more severe weather than
actually occurs and as a result the fishermen do not always trust these forecasts.
The NWS generated a hindcast (Figure 20) of the weather in the vicinity of the sinking based on
weather reports from Coast Guard and other commercial sources operating in the vicinity of the
sinking. Their analysis indicates a significant weather event occurred at the ARCTIC ROSE’s
last known position. A weather phenomenon known as a Triple Point, which is an area of a
frontal system where a cold, warm and occluded front join together and is usually associated
with severe weather, passed over the ARCTIC ROSE’s position. It is highly probable, based on
the Triple Point, the vessel experienced three distinct weather patterns within a brief period of
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