Pareto World Wide Offshore AS - Pareto Project Finance

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Dayrates floaters Source: Pareto Securities, ODS-Petrodata Supply market The North Sea spot market has been very tight during the summer season and is enjoying a stronger end to the year than what was the case 12 months ago. This goes both for PSVs and for AHTS. Norwegian clients have secured several vessels on long term contracts and a substantial amount of new tenders are out in the market for additional tonnage, primarily for large PSVs. North Sea Spot Rates PSV (> 4,000 dwt) Source: Pareto Research, JGO Offshore, Westshore A cooling factor is the newbuilding ordering activity, which has risen substantially in line with improving conditions. A lot of vessels are being ordered, primarily large PSVs, and the debate is whether there are too many such vessels on order. We don’t think so, as roughly two thirds of the order book is targeted markets in the Gulf of Mexico and Asia Pacific. We also note that ordering activity has subsided in line with worsening financial and macro conditions, which will help the market balance going forward. Broadly speaking the global PSV fleet looks to grow by an average of 7 % p.a. in the next two years, which is not very high considering that demand for such vessels has grown by an average of 10 % per year since 2000. For AHTS, the order book is smaller, and with an average fleet growth of 3 % in the next two years, this market looks likely to tighten. Many now see the AHTS market as the next in line for substantial newbuilding activity. Subsea The subsea vessel market appears to be set for a more buoyant 2012 than what has been the case this year. The order books for the larger subsea construction companies are record high, promising significant activity growth in coming years. There is also substantial growth in smaller tenders for a variety of subsea work across the globe as the oil companies try to catch up with low maintenance levels in the past two years, continue to work on enhanced oil recovery plans and prepare for new fields to come on stream. Judging by the field development plans in key regions such as Brazil, West Africa, GoM and Australia, the subsea industry looks set to enjoy a strong run in the next 5–10 years. Technip, the second largest subsea construction company, recently said that the Norwegian subsea market would double in size in the next 3 years. A recovering Gulf of Mexico is also adding to the picture. Analysts expect as much as USD 18 bn of large subsea contracts to be awarded in the next 15 months globally, of which roughly 40 % will for work in West Africa, 20 % in Australia and 20 % in Brazil. Overall, the demand for subsea vessel services looks set to increase more than 40 % in the next two years. This means that vessel shortage could remerge as an important factor in the not too distant future. Technip has already said that it is fully booked for 2012 and is looking to add more vessels. As with most other segments, owners of modern high quality assets will be well positioned. Moreover, it is likely that the recently completed merger between Subsea7 and Acergy will provide space in the market for new entrants. In turn, these will likely be scouting for quality assets as a means to gain market share. We have already seen several new, private equity backed players emerge, who plan to eat into the big guns’ market shares. Seismic market The seismic market has seen a steady rise in demand, which is now at all time high measured in terms of acquisition activity. However, the influx of new vessels into the market has kept a lid on utilization levels and on dayrates. On the other hand, multi-client demand has boomed. There are signs that things are about to improve for the vessel owners. The oil industry appears to be back in the market with large programs, both for traditional exploration seismic and for more specialized surveys like wide azimuth surveys, ocean bottom seismic surveys and EM surveys. The multi-client market in the Gulf of Mexico, which is of significant importance for global vessel utilization, has restarted with four large multi-client surveys haven been approved. Some 7 %–9 % of the global seismic fleet will be moving to
the Gulf in the next six months, according to analysts. Tenders for the Norwegian have come out earlier than last year, a sign that oil companies in this area expect a tighter market next year. With rig rates now starting to rise again and the mounting challenge to discover more oil & gas reserves, there is reason to expect seismic to experience a solid recovery. The oil industry still only manages to strike a discovery in one out of every four exploration wells. It is estimated that dry well costs amount to USD 15–20bn per year, so any technology – such as seismic – that can help improve the success ratios will have tremendous value for the oil industry. The rising trend in dry well costs Source: Pareto Securities Kvartalsrapporten er utelukkende ment for informasjonsformål, og må ikke under noen omstendighet betraktes som et tilbud om eller en oppfordring til å handle aksjer i Selskapet. Det gis ingen garantier og det aksepteres intet ansvar for tap, direkte eller indirekte, som oppstår som følge av at leseren agerer på bakgrunn av informasjon, meninger eller estimater som finnes i dette dokumentet. Informasjonen i dette dokumentet, herunder uttrykte oppfatninger eller prognoser, er innhentet fra eller basert på kilder som vi har vurdert som pålitelige. Vi kan imidlertid ikke garantere for informasjonens nøyaktighet, tilstrekkelighet eller fullstendighet. Noe av informasjonen i dokumentet kan inneholde prognoser eller fremoverskuende uttalelser vedrørende fremtidige hendelser eller fremtidige resultater i markeder eller selskaper. Faktiske hendelser og resultater kan avvike substansielt fra dette. Pareto Project Finance AS aksepterer ikke ansvar for tap som oppstår som følge av bruk av slik informasjon. Det understrekes at den historiske kursutviklingen og de avkastningsmål det er referert til ikke innebærer noen garanti for framtidig avkastning. Det understrekes også at avkastningen/kursutviklingen kan variere som følge av svingninger i valutakursene. Vi gjør oppmerksom på at i dagens urolige marked er det stor usikkerhet knyttet til verdivurderingene da det er ingen eller veldig få transaksjoner som er gjennomført. Fremgangsmåten ved beregning av VEK er nærmere beskrevet i Pareto Project Finance AS’ markedsrapport av september 2011. Risikofaktorer og kostnadsstruktur er nærmere beskrevet i prospektet (Informasjonsmemorandum) utarbeidet i forbindelse med emisjoner i Selskapet.
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Page 5 and 6: som drives av den tidligere ledelse
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