70-years-chart-illustrates-the-dominance-by-the-cfr-trilaterals-bilderbergers
70-years-chart-illustrates-the-dominance-by-the-cfr-trilaterals-bilderbergers
70-years-chart-illustrates-the-dominance-by-the-cfr-trilaterals-bilderbergers
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DREZNER: I mean, that's a possibility, <strong>the</strong>re's no question about that. I mean, you<br />
know, it's easy to point to <strong>the</strong> decline of Europe, but this might potentially lead to at least<br />
some relative decline i <strong>the</strong> United States.<br />
I'm a little more optimistic about <strong>the</strong> U.S., just because first of all, <strong>the</strong> demographic<br />
profile of <strong>the</strong> United States is much healthier than Europe in terms of sort of, you know,<br />
birth rates and <strong>the</strong> extent to which you've got an active labor force supporting a retiring --<br />
supporting pensioners. That's one thing. And <strong>the</strong> second reason is that our fundamental<br />
advantage is that our labor markets are much more flexible and also we're more receptive<br />
to immigration.<br />
So as a result, I mean, <strong>the</strong> U.S. might -- you know, it's not going to ever grow again at 10<br />
percent a year, you know, <strong>the</strong> growth rates that you see in India and China. That said,<br />
because it's starting from a larger base, it doesn't necessarily have to, and because of its<br />
technological lead. It's going to be a longer -- it's going to be a couple decades, I think,<br />
before you need to talk about whe<strong>the</strong>r or not <strong>the</strong> U.S. is going to actually be eclipsed <strong>by</strong><br />
any of <strong>the</strong>se countries.<br />
And <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r fact is -- and this is important -- is that although China and India are rising,<br />
you know, <strong>the</strong>re are a lot of reasons why <strong>the</strong>y might -- both states might encounter<br />
serious amounts of political instability along <strong>the</strong> way, whereas <strong>the</strong> U.S. political system,<br />
even in <strong>the</strong> polarizing era we are now, is considered much more stable.<br />
ROSE: So it's less <strong>the</strong> rise of multilateralism or <strong>the</strong> decline of <strong>the</strong> U.S. as it is <strong>the</strong> U.S.<br />
changing its dance partners or increasing <strong>the</strong> size of its harem.<br />
DREZNER: Yeah, I would say it's more expanding <strong>the</strong> option -- expanding its dance<br />
partner options. You know, as I said in <strong>the</strong> piece, it's not that -- <strong>the</strong> United States needs<br />
<strong>the</strong> European Union, needs <strong>the</strong> EU members because on a whole variety of issues we<br />
actually agree more with Europe than we agree with o<strong>the</strong>r countries. But <strong>the</strong>re are o<strong>the</strong>r<br />
issues, particularly on economic growth, where we're much more simpatico with China<br />
and India than we are with <strong>the</strong> European Union. So this -- if this is done well, if this is<br />
done adroitly, <strong>the</strong> U.S. can sort of pick and choose who its great power allies will be<br />
given <strong>the</strong> issue at hand.<br />
QUESTIONER: So Robin being joined <strong>by</strong> Bat Girl.<br />
DREZNER: Yeah, <strong>the</strong>re you go.<br />
ROSE: And on that note, do we have anymore questions from <strong>the</strong> floor<br />
OPERATOR: A question comes from Garrett Mitchell from <strong>the</strong> Mitchell Report.<br />
QUESTIONER: Hi, Dr. Drezner<br />
DREZNER: Yes.