marketing will intervene in the market, in order to support prices. Its effectiveness therefore depends on the scale of intervention by the Corporation, and on the resources placed at the disposal of that organisation. Should CCI buying prove sufficiently active to maintain market prices at close to the MSP, the scope for a downturn in Indian export offers would be limited. In contrast to India or China, the US generally establishes <strong>cotton</strong> policy for a five-year period, enshrined in the Farm Bill. By now a new US Farm Bill should have been passed, covering the period from 2013–14 to 2017–18. But for want of space in the pre-election, legislative timetable, and the increasing preoccupation with fiscal and budgetary matters, no measure has yet been enacted. At the time of writing, the possibility of passing a new law before the year-end has not been ruled out entirely, though time is short. If that does not occur, it remains to be seen whether the current law will be extended for a year, or new legislation brought forward in 2013. From a <strong>cotton</strong> perspective, the main innovation of the draft versions of the law that ultimately stalled in Congress was the replacement of Direct and Counter-Cyclical Payments, to which producers are entitled under the existing programme, with an insurance-based, revenue protection scheme, known as the Stacked Income Protection Plan (STAX). Such a system may be more palatable to some critics of the <strong>cotton</strong> program, but until it is tested, one cannot predict how tangible will be the influence of STAX on producers’ planting decisions. Some key elements of the <strong>cotton</strong> program, moreover, are likely to be left intact, albeit with some adjustments. These include the Marketing Loan, which is of major potential significance to the international market, since it facilitates the export marketing of US <strong>cotton</strong>, however depressed world prices might become. That mechanism was incorporated into the US <strong>cotton</strong> programme in the mid-1980s, and provides for payment of a marketing subsidy, based on the difference between the US loan rate and the world price, should the latter fall below the former. That condition has not been met for some years, and would require a substantial further decline of world prices to be triggered. Market forces, rather than legislative considerations, are already tending to shape the outlook for US <strong>cotton</strong> plantings in 2013–14. Cotton is expected to lose ground, in face of the lucrative returns currently obtainable for alternative crops such as corn and soybeans. If the shift away from <strong>cotton</strong> is replicated elsewhere, and economic conditions allow a more robust recovery of consumption, world supply and demand may move toward a more healthy equilibrium next season. 2013 Farm Study Tours UK/Ireland (departs July 9 for 22 days) Cast off those BAS Blues in early July and head to Old Blighty and the Emerald Isle for three fantastic weeks. We’ll visit some of the best farming operators in the UK. There will be plenty of time to sample all the beauty and cultural attractions of the cities and the countryside. Visit southern and northern Ireland, England, Wales and Scotland. This tour also coincides with the Ashes and Wimbledon. South America (departs Aug 5 for 24 days) From the beautiful lakes of Chile to rugged Patagonia, the Argentine Pampas, Iguassu Falls, incredible farm developments in Brazil and Rio. Then Peru – think Macchu Pichu. Plus options to the Amazon, Galapagos, Easter Islands etc. Turkey/Ukraine/Poland (departs Aug 21 for 23 days) Turkey is one of the most fascinating countries to visit in the world with its mix of cultures – east and west; Europe and Asia. We will visit Gallipoli, and then travel through western and central Turkey visiting some extremely productive agricultural regions. A quick flight across the Black Sea to the Ukraine with its huge areas of highly fertile soil. We will drive right through to Poland visiting amazing new agricultural developments and onto southern Germany. Express your interest by giving us a call on 07 4659 3555 or email travel@greenmountpress.com.au or visit www.greenmounttravel.com.au Licence No. ABN 57085 828011 TAG 1608 IATA 96-804831 Ph: 07 4659 3555 www.greenmounttravel.com.au E: travel@greenmountpress.com.au Fax: 07 4638 4520
3100% Australian Cotton 3100% Australian Owned Wee Waa Trangie Moree Goondiwindi Toowoomba Ph: 02 6790 3000 Ph: 02 6888 9611 Ph: 02 6752 5599 Ph: 07 4671 6900 Ph: 07 4631 6100 Fax: 02 6795 4036 Fax: 02 6888 9678 Fax: 02 6752 5357 Fax: 07 4671 6999 Fax: 07 4631 6190 www.namoi<strong>cotton</strong>.com.au December 2012–January 2013 The Australian Cottongrower — 37
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