glOBal Wind energy OuTlOOk 2010 - Global Wind Energy Council

is looking at 135 GW of total installed capacity by 2015 and
250 GW by 2020. This would grow to reach 513 GW by 2030,
with annual markets growing to 25.5 GW over that period.
This kind of very large scale deployment of wind energy
would have significant economic and environmental benefits
for the world’s most populated country.
By generating 330 TWh of clean electricity in 2015, wind
power would start to make up a considerable share of China’s
overall power demand, and this would grow to 614 TWh by
2020 and as much as 1,258 TWh by 2030. This would represent
around 11% of China’s total electricity consumption in
2020, and 18% by 2030, based on the IEA’s assumptions for
the country’s power consumption growth, and it would help
fuel the country’s growing economy and provide a hedge
against volatile fossil fuel prices.
Helan Shan wind farm, China
© Nordex
mere 3.2 billion by 2015, and employment plummeting from
an estimated 150,000-200,000 jobs to only 50,000 in this
timeframe.
Such development, as foreseen by the IEA, would not help
China’s effort to curb its carbon emissions, as wind power
would then save only 103 million tons of CO2 annually by
2020, and 140 million tons by 2030.
Such development would also result in more than €25 billion
of investment flowing into the Chinese wind sector every
year by 2030, which would go along with a doubling of the
wind sector work force from the current 200,000 to reach
close to 400,000 in this timeframe.
And, last but not least, exploiting the country’s wind
resources to this level would significantly improve China’s
carbon emissions balance. By 2015, wind power would help
save 190 million tons of CO2 every year, and this figure would
grow to 750 million tons by 2030.
Given the Chinese government’s commitment to developing
the countries wind resources, the GWEO Moderate scenario
foresees a more realistic continuation of wind power growth
in China, with annual installations increasing from the current
13.8 GW to 17.7 GW by 2020 and 22.1 GW by 2030. By 2015,
the total installed capacity would increase to reach 115 GW,
and this would grow to 200 GW by 2020 and 400 GW by
2030.
As a result, €21.3 billion would be invested in Chinese wind
development every year by 2020, and 24.6 billion in 2030.
Employment in the sector would grow from the currently
estimated 200,000 jobs to reach close to 300,000 by 2020
and 400,000 by 2030.
But the GWEO shows that the wind development in China
could go even further. The most ambitious Advanced scenario
However, in order for China to fully exploit the economic and
environmental benefits that wind power can offer, certain
remaining obstacles need to be addressed. This concerns
the issue of grid infrastructure to accommodate ever larger
amounts of wind power in the national electricity grid and
transport them from the windy but remote areas to population
and industry centres.
A different, yet related issue concerns the government target
for wind power development. Although the current official
target of 30 GW by 2020 has already been met, the target
has not been increased yet. Ambitious targets, however, are
key to demonstrating political commitment to wind power
development, and to encouraging investment, both in manufacturing
and in grids.
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