glOBal Wind energy OuTlOOk 2010 - Global Wind Energy Council

R e g i o n a l s c e n a r i o r e s u l T S
Latin aMerica: cuMulaTive Wind POWer capaciTY 2009-2030
100,000 [MW] Reference
80,000
Moderate
Advanced
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2009 2010 2015 2020 2030
Year Reference Moderate Advanced
2009 1,072 1,072 1,072
2010 1,522 1,956 2,082
2015 2,522 11,932 13,329
2020 4,772 28,004 42,224
2030 10,522 72,044 93,347
opment of a wind power industry, which continues to hamper
market development. Signals are needed from governments
indicating to the private sector and the finance community
that there is clear political commitment to develop renewable
energy in general and wind power in particular. This
would at the same time foster economic development,
attract investment and create the ‘green’ jobs that have been
the object of government policy in many other parts of the
world – as the scenario figures underline.
The GWEO scenariOS For Latin aMerica
from the 505 MW installed in 2009 to as little as 200 MW
by 2015. Only by 2030 would it again reach its current size,
according to the IEA’s Reference Scenario.
The Moderate scenario, which takes into account current
policies and targets, foresees a much more rapid development,
with annual additions reaching 3,000 MW as early as
2015, and more than 5,000 MW by 2030. This would bring
the total installed wind capacity to 28 GW by 2020 and
72 GW by 2030. The impact on electricity production would
be considerable, with 68.7 TWh of wind power generated in
2020 and 176.7 TWh in 2030.
The Advanced scenario outlines that even more could be
achieved, given the extraordinary wind conditions in many
Latin American countries. If fully exploited, wind power
could boom here, with more than 13.3 GW of wind power
installed across the continent in 2015. This could then go on
to increase to 42.2 GW by 2020 and as much as 93.3 GW by
2030.
With such a development, wind power would start to account
for a significant part of electricity demand, producing
more than 100 TWh by 2020 and 231 TWh by 2030.
Wind power developed at such a scale would not only
strengthen Latin America’s energy independence, but it
would also have a direct impact on regional economic development
and jobs.
GWEC expects wind energy installations in Latin America to
be considerably stronger than previously thought, with encouraging
developments in markets such as Brazil, Argentina
and Chile.
Under the Reference scenario, wind power could provide
Latin America with 26 TWh of electricity every year while
saving 15.6 million tonnes of CO2 emissions by 2030; or it
could, under the Advanced scenario, generate nearly ten
times as much (231.4 TWh) and save 139 million tonnes of
CO2 emissions per year by then. This stark difference underlines
the enormous impact that a positive political framework
can make across this wind-rich continent.
In terms of employment, there were about 7,400 jobs in the
Latin American wind sector in 2009. Under the Reference
scenario, this number would fall to just over 3,600 by 2015
and only reach current levels again in 2020. The Advanced
scenario shows that from 2015 to 2030, the sector could,
each year, have employment figures more than ten times as
high as in the Reference scenario, reaching 100,000 by 2030.
Equally, wind power would attract substantial investment;
the Advanced scenario estimates that Latin America’s wind
sector could be worth as much as €4.3 billion each year as
early as 2015, growing to €6.5 billion by 2030, compared to
just €680 million in 2009.
Under the Reference scenario there would be 10.5 GW of
wind installed across the entire continent by 2030. This
would, in fact, mean that the annual market would shrink
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