glOBal Wind energy OuTlOOk 2010 - Global Wind Energy Council

R e g i o n a l s c e n a r i o r e s u l T S
Turkey
Turkey’s power consumption is increasing by 8% to 9% each
year. As it has very limited oil and gas reserves, the country
is looking to renewable energy as a means of improving its
energy security and independence from imports. And as
the country prepares to join the European Union and meet
carbon reduction targets, it is becoming much more aware of
its wind power potential.
2009 saw the installation of 343 MW of new wind power,
bringing total capacity up to 801 MW. Addition of a further
500 MW is expected in 2010.
There has been a huge response to government calls for
tender, making evaluation slow. By early 2010 almost 3 GW
of projects had been licensed by the authorities, and it is
expected that the remainder of the tenders received before
November 2007 will be processed soon. Licences for a further
10 GW are scheduled to be granted within the next five
years, 15 GW within ten years, and 20 GW in the long term.
However, experts caution that Turkey’s transmission grid will
need substantial upgrading if wind power on this scale is to
be accommodated.
The GWEO scenariOS For Oecd Europe
Given the level of maturity of some European markets, the
policies already in place, and the potential of others in the
region, it is surprising that the Reference scenario as put
forward by the International Energy Agency anticipates that
annual markets already peaked in 2009 at 10.3 GW, and will
from now on see a decline, falling to 9 GW by 2020 and under
5 GW by 2030. This would result in levels of investment
decreasing from €14.2 billion in 2010 to €11.3 billion in 2020
and a mere €5.9 billion in 2030. At that level, wind power
would by 2030 produce 573.5 TWh and save the emission of
344 million tonnes of CO2 each year.
Within the Moderate scenario, the annual market over
the next decade up to 2020 is expected to grow at a more
healthy rate, from 10.3 GW in 2009 to 24.2 GW, with annual
investments in the wind sector increasing from €14 billion
to €29.2 billion. That steady trend would ensure that wind
power would deliver about 615 TWh of electricity to the
region each year by 2020. By 2030, close to 450 GW would
produce more than 1,000 TWh of electric power in this region
Oecd Europe: cuMulaTive Wind POWer capaciTY 2009-2030
600,000
500,000
400,000
[MW] Reference
Moderate
Advanced
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
2009 2010 2015 2020 2030
Year Reference Moderate Advanced
2009 75,565 75,565 75,565
2010 85,696 86,175 87,140
2015 138,596 150,049 163,109
2020 183,996 250,824 293,963
2030 233,796 447,432 514,806
every year, saving the emission of over 650 million tonnes of
CO2 annually.
Interesting here is the contrast between these first two scenarios
when it comes to employment. The Reference scenario
sees employment peak early, in 2015, by when the sector
would be employing just under 200,000 people across Europe,
then dropping off to 136,000 by 2030. In the Moderate
scenario, however, a longer, sustained growth curve shows
an expansion of jobs between 2010 and 2020, by when the
wind sector would employ close to 400,000 people in Europe
alone.
If you focus on the 2020 and 2030 figures, the gap between
the Moderate scenario and the Advanced scenario seems less
pronounced than in the models for some of the other regions.
However, a comparison shows that, in an ideal world, Europe
could go even a step further in exploiting its wind resources.
By 2020, the Advanced scenario forecasts a total capacity of
close to 300 GW, with annual markets running steadily at
around 24 GW between 2020 and 2030. This would trigger
annual investments of around €26 billion by 2030 and a
workforce of 460,000 people would be employed by the
wind sector at that time. In terms of electricity generation
and resulting CO2 savings, the Advanced scenario also shows
what could be achieved: wind power would generate close to
1,300 TWh of electricity every year, while avoiding the emission
of 760 million tons of CO2 every year in 2030.
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