glOBal Wind energy OuTlOOk 2010 - Global Wind Energy Council

R e g i o n a l s c e n a r i o r e s u l T S
Eastern Europe/Eurasia
This group of countries ranges from new EU members such
as the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Croatia, Serbia, Slovenia, through Romania and
Bulgaria and then eastwards into Russia and Ukraine, and
finally south-eastwards into Central Asia, across the countries
that used to make up the Soviet Union. The IEA has also
included Cyprus and Malta in this grouping.
The group covers radically different economies and power
systems. Some countries, such as Turkmenistan or Azerbaijan,
have massive reserves of oil and gas; others, such as Tajikistan
and Albania meet their power needs almost entirely from
hydro, while some countries have to import either electricity,
fuel or both. Centre stage is resource-rich Russia, which
is the world’s fourth-largest power generator. Many of these
countries have power stations or pipelines that are now
nearing the end of their life, and which will need replacement
regardless of any increase in demand.
All these areas have been assessed to some extent for their
renewable energy potential, and much of this vast Eurasian
landmass has excellent wind resources. 1 But how, when, and
indeed whether this will be tapped is more tricky to answer.
To date, the main wind developments have been in those
eastern European and Baltic states which became members
of the European Union in 2004 2 , such as Romania, Bulgaria
and the Baltic states. These new member states had to apply
the 2001 EU Renewables Directive, and their accession treaty
set national indicative targets for renewable power production
for each state. They are of course now also bound by the
EU’s new legislation for 20% of the bloc’s energy consumption
to come from renewable sources, which includes a binding
target for each country.
Another driver for the introduction of wind development
across the Eastern Europe and Eurasia region has been the
Joint Implementation mechanism that forms part of the
Kyoto Protocol. Under this arrangement, any Annex 1 (industrialized)
country can invest in emissions reduction projects
in any other Annex 1 country as an alternative to reducing
its own emissions. This mechanism was targeted at the socalled
‘transition economies’, but as many of these have now
© LM Wind Power
become EU members, the main focus for JI is now on Russia
and Ukraine. As of August 2010, there were 30 wind energy
projects in the JI pipeline, totalling an installed capacity of
1,280 MW. The largest one of these, at 300 MW, is located in
Ukraine.
Wind power development has already started in some of
the countries covered in this section. While Romania, which
according to the EU Directive must meet 24% of its energy
demand by renewables in 2020, had only 14 MW of wind
power installed at the end of 2009, the country’s project
pipeline is impressive. EWEA’s scenarios indicate that in 2020
the country could have up to 3.5 GW installed, and the Romanian
wind energy association believes that 3 GW could be
reached as early as 2013. In April 2010, Iberdrola Renovables
was granted permission to build 1,500 MW of new wind capacity
between 2011 and 2017, and German RWE is planning
to develop 350 MW.
The situation in Bulgaria is also promising. With a renewable
energy target of 16% under the EU Directive, the country
introduced favourable policies to promote renewable energy
development, and wind power installations have been growing
considerably in recent years, with a total of 177 MW
operating at the end of 2009. According to the EBRD, around
1,000 MW worth of wind projects are currently at various
planning stages, and the overall potential is estimated at
around 2.2-3.4 GW.
1 Much of the information in this chapter, including the resource assessment, is derived from the EBRD’s Renewable Development Initiative (www.ebrdrenewables.com)
2 Note that some of these countries, such as Poland, are covered in the OECD Europe section
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