glOBal Wind energy OuTlOOk 2010 - Global Wind Energy Council

R e g i o n a l s c e n a r i o r e s u l T S
Oecd pacific: cuMulaTive Wind POWer capaciTY 2009-2030
120,000
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
[MW] Reference
Moderate
Advanced
2009 2010 2015 2020 2030
Woolnorth wind farm, Tasmania, Australia
© Wind Power Works
Year Reference Moderate Advanced
2009 4,613 4,613 4,613
2010 5,318 5,740 5,870
2015 6,818 17,303 20,255
2020 10,568 37,259 47,876
2030 18,568 81,159 109,367
power, bringing the total capacity to 348 MW. However,
South Korea has a target for renewables to provide 11% of
the country’s primary energy (not just electricity) by 2030.
A new bill was passed in March 2010 that requires utilities to
increase the current share of renewable energy in their total
power generation (excluding large hydro) from the current
1% to 4% by 2015, growing to 10% by 2022.
regulatory and grid connection problems, it seems unlikely
that this target will be achieved.
Despite a struggling domestic market, Japan’s wind turbine
manufacturer Mitsubishi Heavy Industry has become a
significant exporter and in 2009 had about 1.5% of the global
market.
Wind power development in Korea will also be facilitated by
the fact that several major international companies including
Samsung, Daewoo and Hyundai have recently entered the
wind business.
The GWEO scenariOS For Oecd Pacific
Given the diversity of the four countries covered, it is worth
drawing a quick side-by-side comparison:
Japan
Japan’s power sector is divided between nuclear, coal and
(mostly imported) natural gas. While demand is expected to
remain fairly steady in the short to medium term, the share
of different forms of power generation is likely to shift, as
some coal-fired generation is likely to be phased out in the
coming decades as Japan is aiming to cut its CO2 emissions
by 25% in 2020 compared with 1990 levels. However, Japan
is focusing more heavily on expanding its nuclear power
generation than renewables to achieve this, and its target for
electricity from non hydro renewables is 1.63% by 2014.
Japan has a massive power sector market – over three times
the size of Korea’s, five times the size of Australia’s, and 25
times the size of New Zealand’s. So far, Japan has this group’s
highest installed wind capacity, at 2.1 GW, but its development
is slowing down, while Australia is moving forward
rapidly. Both Australia and New Zealand have excellent
wind resources, but given that New Zealand has such good
hydro and limited power demand, the total market likely
to be developed here is likely to remain modest. Korea has
the smallest and youngest wind market of the four, but has
several home-grown turbine manufacturers and a plan to
expand renewable energy.
Japan’s official government target for wind power by 2010
was 3,000 MW, and by the end of 2009, 2,056 MW of
these had been installed. With the pace of new installations
slowing down considerably in recent years due to technical,
The Reference scenario for OECD Pacific expects wind market
growth to decline until 2015, with installations dropping
from 867 MW in 2009 to just 300 MW per year by 2015. In
the second half of the decade, the Reference scenario sees
the market creeping back up so that, by 2030, 2009 levels
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