Sustainability of rice in the global food system - IRRI books

for the next 30–50 yr. Also, the demand for maize (corn) and other grains will increase
substantially as the consumption of livestock products expands with further
income growth. On the supply side, prosperous Asian countries will find it increasingly
difficult to sustain producers’ interest in rice farming. The move toward free
trade in agricultural production, initiated by the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement
on Trade and Tariffs (GATT), will further dampen incentives for rice farming in
these countries. The potential for increased productivity created by the dramatic technological
breakthrough in the late 1960s has been almost fully exploited, particularly
for the irrigated ecosystem. Without further technological advances, it will be difficult
to maintain growth in rice production at historical rates.
As rice production loses the race against population growth, sustaining food security
becomes the major challenge for land-scarce, low-income countries. Affluent
Asians could buy rice on the world market by offering higher prices, but the prospect
of generating exportable surpluses outside Asia is limited. If the rice supply fails to
increase with demand, the price will increase and the market will reallocate scarce
supplies from low-income to high-income consumers, a shift that could aggravate
poverty in low-income countries. Because poverty alleviation is a major political
objective, governments in countries with food surpluses may raise trade barriers to
protect their domestic consumers, a reaction that may induce high-income countries
to continue their inefficient domestic production of rice.
The question is, Will Asia be able to sustain favorable food balances and further
improve food security for low-income households This paper addresses these issues
by assessing the impact of socioeconomic developments on the organization of rice
production, analyzing the forces governing demand-supply balances, and examining
political factors that could affect the trade-off between pursuing self-sufficiency in
domestic production and achieving self-reliance through trade to sustain food security.
Rice: the dominant food staple and way of life in Asia
Importance of rice in the economy and culture
In Asia, rice is the principal staple food and the most important source of employment
and income for rural people. Asia’s hot and humid climate during the long and heavy
monsoon season, and the fertile land along the river basins of the major deltas that are
regularly flooded, provide the most favorable agroecological environment for rice
cultivation. The production of the other staple grain, wheat, raised in a rice-wheat
sequence, is limited to the subhumid subtropics, in central China and in the foothills
of the Himalayas in South Asia (Huke and Huke 1992). Most Asian nations depend
on imports from outside the region for the supply of wheat, whose consumption is
low but growing with rapid urbanization and changes in food habits.
Maize is produced in sizable amounts in the sloping uplands of Indonesian outer
islands, the Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam; it rarely competes with rice for land
resources. With the fast increase in the demand for livestock products following rapid
20 Hossain