Sustainability of rice in the global food system - IRRI books

With growing economic prosperity and urbanization, per capita rice consumption
has begun to decline in the middle- and high-income Asian countries. Nearly a
fourth of Asians are still poor, however, and they have considerable unmet demand
for rice. Also, population is still growing at 1.8% yr –1 , and Asia may not have a stationary
population before the middle of the 21st century. Rice production must increase
by another 270 million t over the next three decades to meet the growing demand.
It is a daunting challenge to increase rice supplies this much, as land, labor, and
water are becoming scarce with increasing competition from the fast-growing nonfarm
sectors, and natural resources are already at risk of degradation.
If supply fails to keep pace with the growth in demand, rice prices will increase.
Rising prices for this staple food will have an adverse effect on poverty alleviation in
low-income countries, which will find it difficult to keep inflation low and maintain
competitive strength in labor-intensive manufacturing. This situation may restrict free
international trade in rice, with adverse consequences for the access of high-income
countries with food deficits and affluent rice consumers to scarce supplies, even though
they could afford to obtain rice from the market by offering high prices. The uncertainty
in achieving food security through international trade may encourage middleand
high-income countries to maintain a safe capacity to produce this staple grain
through market interventions, although such action is not economically efficient.
Asian nations need to formulate a strategy for mutual collaboration to curb population
growth, strengthen agricultural research, and develop an irrigation and marketing
infrastructure to reduce demand and exploit the untapped potential for increasing
supply. International support is also needed to address food security problems in those
parts of Asia that still face extensive poverty that threatens the sustainability of the
natural resource base.
References
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Childs NW. 1990. The world rice market: government intervention and multilateral policy
reform. Economic Research Service, USDA, Washington, D.C., USA.
David CC, Cordova VG, Otsuka K. 1994. Technical change, land reform and income distribution
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David CC, Otsuka K, editors. 1994. Modern rice technology and income distribution in Asia.
Boulder and London: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
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