Sustainability of rice in the global food system - IRRI books

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now being used in breeding programs in India and Vietnam, and a number of hybrid varieties have already been released to farmers in these countries. The main constraint to the rapid expansion of hybrid rice among small-scale Asian farmers is the development of infrastructure for the production and distribution of seeds, because farmers will need to change seeds every season, an unconventional practice now. If hybrid rice technology can be combined with the new plant type, rice yield could increase by another 50% when these technologies are fully adopted in all rice lands. Initially, the technologies will appeal to farmers who have already achieved high yields, particularly on land with a reliable irrigation infrastructure. The greatest potential for increasing rice production lies in rainfed lands, which account for almost half the total rice area. Yield in rainfed lands increased only marginally from l.5 t ha -1 before the Green Revolution to about 2 t ha -1 in the early 1990s (Hossain 1996b). Rice scientists have yet to succeed in developing appropriate highyielding varieties that can withstand prolonged drought, temporary submergence, and other climatic stresses common in rainfed environments (Zeigler and Puckridge 1995). The risk to rice cultivation from unreliable monsoons discourages poor farmers from adopting modern varieties and investing in chemical fertilizers. Increasing yield in the rainfed system will be difficult because scientists have had limited success in developing modern varieties that can withstand climatic and soil-related stresses (Zeigler and Puckridge 1995). With recent advances in molecular biology, research on these issues has been accelerated, but the outcome is uncertain. Supply response to prices If the supply of rice lags behind the increase in demand, the price will increase. The resultant increase in marginal-value products may encourage farmers to use inputs in larger amounts to raise yield and help reduce demand-supply imbalances. To study the magnitude of price response for rice, a number of country studies under the IFPRI- IRRI project used a dynamic supply response model developed by McGuirk and Mundlak (1991). This sequential decision-making model uses a choice-of-technique framework (Rosegrant and Kasryno 1992). Based on the formation of a multiperiod household decision-making process, the model estimates three sets of supply equations using a recursive simultaneous system. The first block of equations determines the allocation of resources to quasi-fixed factors (that cannot be changed in the short run), such as land and irrigation, depending on expected net returns in alternative economic activities. The second block of equations determines the allocation of predetermined land and water resources to crops that compete for these inputs, depending on their relative prices. The third block of equations determines the input supply and yield response of particular crops to input-output prices, given the predetermined levels of quasi-fixed inputs and allocation of area under different crops. The system yields better estimates of supply parameters than the single-equation estimates of area and yield response to price and nonprice variables for specific crops. Table 11 shows the response of rice yield and the supply of modern inputs to rice prices obtained from this dynamic supply-response model. Sustaining food security in Asia: economic, social, and political aspects 35
Table 11. Input supply and yield response to rice prices: estimates from the dynamic supply response model. Increase (%) in Increase (%) in Country fertilizer from a rice yield from a 1% increase in 1% increase in rice prices rice prices Bangladesh Thailand Pakistan Vietnam Northern region Southern region Indonesia Java Java (outer islands) 0.20 0.22 0.30 0.42 0.17 0.43 0.27 0.06 0.18 0.04 0.02 0.09 0.05 0.08 Source: IRRI/IFPRI (1995) Rice Supply and Demand Project. Table 12. Estimates of fertilizer use (NPK ha -1 ) in irrigated and rainfed rice cultivation in selected Asian countries. Country Irrigated modern variety Rainfed modern variety Rainfed traditional variety China 368 Bangladesh 173 Vietnam 173 India 172 a Philippines 114 Cambodia 83 – 109 – – 62 – – 41 15 32 b 24 18 a Average for Punjab and Tamil Nadu. b Average for Bihar and Madhya Pradesh. Source: IRRI 1995. The results suggest that the supply response to rice prices is typically small. A 10% increase in price would increase rice yield 0.4–1.8%. The response comes mainly from fertilizer use, which would increase 24% in response to a 10% increase in rice prices. But the output elasticity of fertilizer is small because land, water, and labor are still the dominant inputs in rice production. What is the potential for increasing supplies through a further increase in the use of chemical fertilizers as the returns from fertilizer increase because of higher rice prices A number of microstudies carried out in Asia show that when irrigation is reliable, farmers use fertilizers in optimal amounts (David and Otsuka 1994). For the irrigated ecosystem, the variation in fertilizer use among Asian countries is relatively small (Table 12). In most countries in Asia, chemical fertilizers were popular among farmers with large subsidies. In recent years, however, Asian governments have started withdrawing subsidies from this input, which puts an upward pressure on farm-level prices. This trend in prices may reduce fertilizer use and the yield of rice in the irri- 36 Hossain
Page 2 and 3: SUSTAINABILITY OF RICE IN THE GLOBA
Page 4 and 5: Contents PREFACE V.W. Ruttan V CHAP
Page 6: Preface Rice is the primary food gr
Page 9 and 10: sustainability macrocosm, particula
Page 11 and 12: All the participants believed stron
Page 13 and 14: Part III contains nine chapters:
Page 16: Part I: Food Security
Page 19 and 20: unfulfillable goal, whereas people
Page 21 and 22: Building national capacity for an i
Page 24: Part II: Food Systems
Page 27 and 28: for the next 30-50 yr. Also, the de
Page 29 and 30: Table 2. Average farm household inc
Page 31 and 32: Table 4. Intensity of labor use and
Page 33 and 34: As incomes increase, people diversi
Page 35 and 36: important. Water has generally been
Page 37 and 38: Table 7. Costs of production and fa
Page 39 and 40: Table 8. The demand response to inc
Page 41: Table 10. Recent trends in populati
Page 45 and 46: important implications for the stra
Page 47 and 48: With growing economic prosperity an
Page 49 and 50: McGuirk A, Mundlak Y. 1991. Incenti
Page 52 and 53: CHAPTER 4 A stable landscape Social
Page 54 and 55: of conservational science, eventual
Page 56 and 57: sauce or bean curd; the extraction
Page 58 and 59: opment” (Huang 1990). For these s
Page 60 and 61: y the multiple levels of exploitati
Page 62 and 63: If ever there was a rice economy, N
Page 64 and 65: uy and sell scrap or work in the of
Page 66 and 67: In direct economic terms, as Ohnuki
Page 68 and 69: It cannot be argued, even in Japan,
Page 70 and 71: With the consolidation of the disci
Page 72 and 73: Gourou P. 1936. Les paysans du delt
Page 74 and 75: CHAPTER 5 Sustainability, food syst
Page 76 and 77: Fig. 1. The hierarchical nature of
Page 78 and 79: that posit that there are universal
Page 80 and 81: Most paradigms—conventional and a
Page 82 and 83: Table 2. Political ecology paradigm
Page 84 and 85: The need to develop political techn
Page 86 and 87: well as the 1992 United Nations Con
Page 88 and 89: still relevant. (Bray’s masterful
Page 90 and 91: terials (Developing an ecological e
Page 92 and 93:
Fig. 2. The elements of food system
Page 94 and 95:
to climate, soils, latitude, social
Page 96 and 97:
coming more explicitly aware of our
Page 98 and 99:
Dahlberg KA. 1996b. Population dyna
Page 100:
Part III: Rice Production Systems:
Page 103 and 104:
tion costs, and input-output prices
Page 105 and 106:
use threatens the environment, and
Page 107 and 108:
abiotic stresses. This research is
Page 109 and 110:
modified canopy morphology because
Page 111 and 112:
Sink size Current high-yielding var
Page 113 and 114:
It was suggested that rice grain yi
Page 115 and 116:
tropical japonicas (Khush 1995). Hy
Page 117 and 118:
ever, that the heterosis reported f
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needed for this subecosystem are in
Page 121 and 122:
een reported (Thach 1994). The avai
Page 123 and 124:
or alkaline aerobic (upland) soils.
Page 125 and 126:
Table 2. Main abiotic stresses of s
Page 127 and 128:
Chang TT. 1964. Varietal difference
Page 129 and 130:
Kishore GM. 1994. Starch biosynthes
Page 131 and 132:
Singh G, Singh S, Gurung SB. 1984.
Page 134 and 135:
CHAPTER 8 Intensification of rice p
Page 136 and 137:
promoted private and public investm
Page 138 and 139:
years ago (Uexkuell 1985, De Datta
Page 140 and 141:
matter conservation and the nutrien
Page 142 and 143:
It may be that crop diversification
Page 144 and 145:
Fig. 3. Central role of microbial b
Page 146 and 147:
Figure 4. Phosphorus uptake by trad
Page 148 and 149:
Coleman DC, Dighton J, Ritz K, Gill
Page 150 and 151:
Pingali PL, Hossain M, Pandey S, Pr
Page 152 and 153:
CHAPTER 9 Importance of rice pests
Page 154 and 155:
A review of the literature on rice
Page 156 and 157:
Fig. 1. Risk probability: probabili
Page 158 and 159:
Code for production situation Site(
Page 160 and 161:
Fig. 4. Schematic diagram of geneti
Page 162 and 163:
Table 1. Plants containing two or m
Page 164 and 165:
Fig. 5. Protocol for production of
Page 166 and 167:
showed that both pyramids and parti
Page 168 and 169:
Dahal G, Dasgupta I, Lee G, Hull R.
Page 170 and 171:
Sama S, Hasanuddin A, Manwan I, Cab
Page 172 and 173:
CHAPTER 10 Weeds: a looming problem
Page 174 and 175:
long-term strategies to minimize pr
Page 176 and 177:
Weedy rice and red rice are undesir
Page 178 and 179:
suspension of a fungal pathogen wit
Page 180:
Notes Authors’ addresses: M. Olof
Page 183 and 184:
with shallow water depths, modern r
Page 185 and 186:
after prolonged wetting; therefore,
Page 187 and 188:
Nitrate-nitrogen contamination. Inc
Page 189 and 190:
Opportunities with wet-seeded rice
Page 191 and 192:
(Murray-Rust and Snellen 1993). Few
Page 193 and 194:
Nutrient balance and sustainability
Page 195 and 196:
Pest management Research has shown
Page 197 and 198:
Fukai S, Rajatsasereekul S, Boonjun
Page 199 and 200:
Tuong TP, Cabangon RJ. 1996. Reduci
Page 201 and 202:
Although IRRI continues to work to
Page 203 and 204:
itability of the farming enterprise
Page 205 and 206:
When we develop a knowledge-intensi
Page 207 and 208:
of success, given their interpretat
Page 209 and 210:
knowledge is embedded in machines a
Page 212 and 213:
CHAPTER 13 Rice and the global envi
Page 214 and 215:
emissions of greenhouse gases are s
Page 216 and 217:
Fig. 2. Increment in aboveground bi
Page 218 and 219:
Fig. 3. Grain yield at maturity (t
Page 220 and 221:
Possible effects of increased UV-B
Page 222 and 223:
Methane emissions in different rice
Page 224 and 225:
Table 2. Influencing components in
Page 226 and 227:
Fig. 7. Methane ebullition and emis
Page 228 and 229:
gas. Assuming a given amount of man
Page 230 and 231:
Matthews RB, Kropff MJ, Bachelet D,
Page 232 and 233:
CHAPTER 14 New Frontier Projects: b
Page 234 and 235:
Fig. 1. Four potential research app
Page 236 and 237:
the cellular machinery needed for t
Page 238 and 239:
pure and predictable in its fruitin
Page 240 and 241:
Isolation of apomixis genes of gras
Page 242 and 243:
with the A genome, it can be overco
Page 244 and 245:
veloped: a BC 1 F 2 population obta
Page 246 and 247:
explored approach is to find plants
Page 248 and 249:
Knowles RP. 1977. Recurrent mass se
Page 250:
Notes Authors’ address: Internati
Page 254 and 255:
CHAPTER 15 Protecting the diversity
Page 256:
Schoenly KG, Cohen JE, Heong KL, Li
Page 259 and 260:
Table 1. Taxa in the genus Oryza: t
Page 261 and 262:
Fig. 1. The gene pool of the main c
Page 263 and 264:
it accounts for 30-50% of agricultu
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easons, 2 we should be cautious in
Page 267 and 268:
that has been modified by means of
Page 269 and 270:
ened by changes in rice cultivation
Page 271 and 272:
of conservation actions address bio
Page 273 and 274:
Market integration and the availabi
Page 275 and 276:
direct crosses without using embryo
Page 277 and 278:
the new plant type rice through PCR
Page 279 and 280:
to enhance tolerance of these stres
Page 281 and 282:
understanding is important given th
Page 283 and 284:
One of the major concerns in the ma
Page 285 and 286:
Chang TT. 1976. The origin, evoluti
Page 287 and 288:
IRRI (International Rice Research I
Page 289 and 290:
Pham JL, Glaszmann JC, Sano R, Barb
Page 292 and 293:
CHAPTER 17 Biological diversity of
Page 294 and 295:
Components of invertebrate diversit
Page 296 and 297:
Fig. 2. Landscape features and orga
Page 298 and 299:
with parasitoids displaying an earl
Page 300 and 301:
lished data). Of 57 species identif
Page 302 and 303:
iodiversity concepts to microbiota
Page 304 and 305:
Manly BFJ. 1991. Randomization and
Page 306:
Notes Authors’ address: Internati
Page 310 and 311:
CHAPTER 18 The economic value of ge
Page 312 and 313:
Table 1. Numbers of varieties inclu
Page 314 and 315:
crosses. By contrast, of the landra
Page 316 and 317:
5. Field testing and evaluation of
Page 318 and 319:
developed in the Philippines (IR5,
Page 320 and 321:
constituted a collection of ultimat
Page 322 and 323:
The present value of a landrace add
Page 324 and 325:
esearch on other commodities are al
Page 326 and 327:
This exercise is based on judgments
Page 328 and 329:
CHAPTER 19 Food, energy, and the en
Page 330 and 331:
The other two crops lower rice cons
Page 332 and 333:
efore 1973, when the Shah of Iran a
Page 334 and 335:
Given these realities, countries wi
Page 336 and 337:
But this does not mean that Asian w
Page 338:
Notes Author’s address: Universit
Page 342 and 343:
CHAPTER 20 Rice production constrai
Page 344 and 345:
of research networks was establishe
Page 346 and 347:
Fig. 4. Grain area in China. Fig. 5
Page 348 and 349:
Fig. 6. Rice regions in China. nort
Page 350 and 351:
even higher than the maximum yield
Page 352 and 353:
The responses to the research scien
Page 354 and 355:
Table 5. Highest yields (kg ha -1 )
Page 356 and 357:
Table 7. Yield gaps I and II in kg
Page 358 and 359:
Table 10. Yield gap I for single-se
Page 360 and 361:
The estimated yield loss from indiv
Page 362 and 363:
weather conditions can cause a more
Page 364 and 365:
CHAPTER 21 Priorities and opportuni
Page 366 and 367:
Table 3. Rice calorie supply as a p
Page 368 and 369:
Fig. 3. Rice production trends in I
Page 370 and 371:
Fig. 6. Area, production, and yield
Page 372 and 373:
Fig. 7. Rice area (million ha) by e
Page 374 and 375:
C. Rainfed shallow lowland and semi
Page 376 and 377:
Table 7 continued. Ecology Kerala M
Page 378 and 379:
Table 9. Crop management practices
Page 380 and 381:
tional area in states such as Andhr
Page 382 and 383:
sustained productivity, a renewed a
Page 384 and 385:
North and northwest India Medium-du
Page 386 and 387:
Table 12. Procurement prices vs cos
Page 388 and 389:
and costly. Increasing FCI ineffici
Page 390 and 391:
• Decisions on adjusting domestic
Page 392 and 393:
land, rainfed lowland, and flood-pr
Page 394 and 395:
Table 18. The rice production syste
Page 396 and 397:
aspects, and research and technolog
Page 398 and 399:
CHAPTER 22 Conclusions: a potential
Page 400 and 401:
Several more specific questions fol
Page 402 and 403:
Notes Author’s address: San Franc
Page 404 and 405:
Shu Geng SGENG@UCDAVIS.EDU Michael
Page 406 and 407:
About the authors Ossmat Azzam has
Page 408 and 409:
Thomas George has been an agronomis
Page 410 and 411:
Lisa M. Leimar Price worked at IRRI
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