Projected Manpower Requirements - HKU Libraries - The University ...

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18 Manpower 2001 Revisited Sixth Form 2.18 Traditionally, sixth form education aims to prepare young people for admission to tertiary education, but there are changes recently aiming to broaden the curriculum in order to better equip sixth form leavers for employment as well. Yet, the provision of sixth form education has grown relatively slow in comparison to the expansion of tertiary education. While the number of first degree intakes will be doubled by 1994 from its 1989 level, the enrolment in Secondary 6, the entry grade of sixth form, is projected to increase by less than 40% over the corresponding period. Together with the intake by other tertiary education programmes, a vast majority of sixth form leavers will find a place in tertiary education of one form or the other, leaving very few joining the labour force on completing sixth form education. The net output at the sixth form educational level, being the number of people who have complete sixth form less the number of sixth form leavers admitted to other educational programmes, is projected to total only 57,000 over the whole period from 1992 to 2001, or on average 5,700 a year. Such level of net output is far from adequate even to replenish the losses due to death, retirement, and other forms of wastage. As a result, the manpower supply at the sixth form level will shrink. 2.19 It is projected that the numbers of workers with sixth form education will first fall slightly from 163,400 in 1991 to 162,900 in 1996. Then the number will drop to 158,700 in 2001, or by half per cent a year. Not much new blood will be found amongst this group of workers. New entrants to the workforce during 1992 to 1996 will make up 18% of the total manpower at this educational level in 1996. New entrants after 1996 will make up 8% of the total in 2001. 2.20 Consequently, there will be more old workers at the sixth fonn education. The proportion of workers aged under thirty will fall from 49% in 1991, to 32% in 1996 and 28% in 2001. Technician and Craft Levels 2.21 On the contrary, manpower supply at both the technician and craft levels will grow rapidly. Adding to the diversity of secondary education,
Projected Manpower Supply 19 """•P^^ provisions of vocational education places at technician and craft levels have being expanding, especially in the past decade. For instance, the number of intakes by the Technical Institutes, which are the main providers of such education, has been more than doubled between 1982 and 1992. More people with technical/vocational qualifications are joining the workforce in the recent years and even more will be doing so in the coming years. 2.22 It is projected that the manpower supply at the technician level will grow by an average 5.7% a year between 1991 and 2001, or from 46,000 workers to 80,100 workers. Similarly, manpower supply at the craft level is projected to grow from 13,100 in 1991 to 33,400 in 2001, or by 9.8% a year. As a result, workers with technician or craft level qualifications will become a more important component of the manpower supply. In 1991, manpower supply at these two levels only account for 2.2% of the overall. By 2001, their combined share is expected to go up to 3.7%. Upper Secondary 2.23 With a provision of subsidized school places for 85% of the relevant age group, upper secondary education is accessible to almost every young person who wants it. On the other hand, education opportunities above this level, though having been improved greatly in the recent years, is still relatively limited. As a result, it will still be the case that most young people finish education and join the labour force at the completion of upper secondary level. And it is projected that net output from local educational institutions at this level will average 32,000 a year. Accordingly, manpower gain at this level will be the largest in absolute number -136,500 persons during the ten years between 1991 and 2001. However, given the large manpower base, 785,600 in 1991, the growth rate will be a modest 1.6% a year over the ten-year period. Comparison with Previous Projection 2.24 In comparison with the results of the last projection prepared two years ago, the general trends of future manpower supply are not very much different. In Table 2.4 below, the average annual growth rates of manpower supply by educational level from the present and the previous sets of projections are compared. Both sets of figures indicates that manpower supply will grow
Page 2 and 3: THE UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG LIBRARI
Page 5 and 6: Contents Executive Summary Section
Page 7 and 8: Executive Summary Purpose of Study
Page 9 and 10: Major Findings Projected Manpower S
Page 11 and 12: will increase by 23.6% and 18.1%. S
Page 13 and 14: (b) Upper secondary 22. Negative ba
Page 15 and 16: Introduction I Section One Introduc
Page 17 and 18: Introduction 3 the projection cover
Page 19 and 20: Introduction 5 of population and em
Page 21 and 22: Introduction 1 Unemployment 1.21 It
Page 23 and 24: Projected Manpower Supply 9 2.3 At
Page 25 and 26: Projected Manpower Supply 11 2,974,
Page 27 and 28: Projected Manpower Supply 13 1996 a
Page 29 and 30: Projected Manpower Supply 15 2.14 M
Page 31: Projected Manpower Supply 17 Figure
Page 35 and 36: Projected Manpower Supply 21 2.26 A
Page 37 and 38: Employment Projection 23 from the c
Page 39 and 40: Employment Projection 25 Table 3.1
Page 41 and 42: Employment Projection 27 3.10 A com
Page 43 and 44: Employment Projection 29 3.12 Among
Page 45 and 46: Employment Projection 31
Page 49 and 50: Employment Projection 35 3.26 Simil
Page 53 and 54: Employment Projection 39 3.30 Howev
Page 55 and 56: Employment Projection 41 1996 and 2
Page 57 and 58: Projection of Educational Requireme
Page 63 and 64: Conclusion 49 Section Five Conclusi
Page 65 and 66: Conclusion 51 5.6 The manpower supp
Page 67 and 68: Conclusion 53 a declining supply wi
Page 69 and 70: Conclusion 55 these factors will af
Page 71 and 72: Appendices 57 Appendix A Educationa
Page 73 and 74: Appendices 59 ^«»iBm!iffliiii«mi
Page 75 and 76: Appendices 61 B8. Inflows of people
Page 77 and 78: Appendices 63 B16. There is no actu
Page 79 and 80: Appendices 65 Table B-l : Projected
Page 81 and 82: Appendices 67 distributions of empl
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Appendices 69 B34. To estimate the
Page 85 and 86:
Appendices 71 warehouse managers, t
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Appendices 73 Architects Town Plann
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Appendices 75 19. Librarians Other
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Appendices 11 32. and Administrativ
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Appendices 79 42. Housekeeping Rest
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Appendices 81 plumbers and pipe fit
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Appendices 83 56. Machinery Mechani
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Appendices 85 63, Chemical Processo
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Appendices 87 70. Other Production
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Appendices 89 Appendix D Projected
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: Appendices 91 Industry group : 2.
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Appendices 93 Industry group : 4. W
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Appendices 95 Industry group : 6. R
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Appendices 97 Industry group : 8. E
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Appendices 99 Industry group : I®.
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: : Appendices 101 Industry group :
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Appendices 103 Industry group : 14.
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: Appendices 105 Industry group : 1
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: Appendices 107 Industry group : 1
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Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
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Appendices 111 Indostry group : 28.
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Appendices 121 Industry groaip : 32
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Appendices 123 Major industry group
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Appendices 129 Eft) Estimation of s
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Appendices 131 Appendix E(ii) Estim
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Estimated number of survivors by oc
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Estimated number of survivors by oc
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Educational Requirements of Survivo
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Educational Requirements of Survivo
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Appendices 141 Appendix H(i) Projec
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Appendices 143 Appendix H(ii) Proje
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Required Educational Compositions f
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Educational Requirements of New Ent
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Educational Requirements of New Ent
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Educational Requirements of All Emp
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Educational Requirements of All Emp
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c; "ne cacs s DATE DUE
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