Projected Manpower Requirements - HKU Libraries - The University ...

Appendices 59
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Appendix B
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The manpower projection is consisted of two parts, viz, the manpower
supply projection and the manpower requirements projection. On the supply side, it is a
projection of the numbers of people in employment (the employed persons) with different
levels of educational qualifications. At any educational level, the number of employed
persons will be a function of the total number of people with that level of education in the
population and their propensity to work. The latter is measured by the labour force
participation rate, which in turn depends on the age and sex distribution of the people
concerned.
B2. From the supply side projection, the total number of employed persons
with any level of education, or the overall manpower size, is thus determined as the sum of
manpower supply at all levels. Then the task involved in the manpower requirements
projection Is to predict the distribution of the employed persons by the level of education
which they should possess in order to meet the requirements of the jobs they hold. The
following is a general account of the projection methodology.
Supply projection
B3. As mentioned above, in order to predict the numbers of employed persons
with different levels of education, it is necessary to find out the distribution of the population
by age and sex as well as educational level in the future. In the manpower projection, only
the population in the working age (15 years and above) is concerned; persons below working
age will not contribute to the manpower. Population projection is compiled by applying the
various components of population change, viz, fertility, mortality, and migration of people,
to the base year population. However, for the present purpose it is not necessary to consider
new births, as those aged 15 and above by the year 2001 have already been born in 1991.
B4. Population projection by age and sex is prepared periodically by the Working
Group on Projections (WGOP) of the Census and Statistics Department. Its latest 1991-
based projection together with the components of population change is adopted for the
11 See Note 3 of Section One.