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156 ‘Hybrid War’ and ‘Little Green Men’: How It Works, and How It Doesn’t Mark Galeotti New York University Ukraine and Russia: People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives
157 When Russian special forces seized Crimea at the end of February 2014, without their insignia, but with the latest military kit, it seemed as the start of a new era of warfare. Certainly, the conflict in Ukraine has demonstrated that Moscow, in a bid to square its regional ambitions with its sharply limited resources, has assiduously and effectively developed a new style of ‘guerrilla geopolitics’ which leverages its capacity for misdirection, bluff, intelligence operations, and targeted violence to maximise its opportunities. However, it is too soon to declare that this represents some transformative novelty, because Moscow’s Ukrainian adventures have not only demonstrated the power of such ‘hybrid’ or ‘non-linear’ ways of warfare, but also their distinct limitations. The Genesis of the Idea The essence of Russia’s tactics was precisely to try and avoid the need for shooting as much as possible, and then to try and ensure that whatever shooting took place was on the terms that suited them best. To this end, they blended the use of a range of assets, from gangster allies to media spin, in a manner that draws heavily on past political operations, not least the aktivnye meropriyatiya (‘active measures’) of Soviet times (Madeira, 2014). While not entirely new, their tactics were given a particular novelty simply by the characteristics of the contemporary world, something recognised by the Chief of the General Staff Valerii Gerasimov, in a crucial article from 2013, in which he noted that ‘The role of non-military means of achieving political and strategic goals has grown, and, in many cases, they have exceeded the power of weapons in their effectiveness’ (Gerasimov, 2013). In what is ostensibly a piece on the lessons of the ‘Arab Spring’ – which Kremlin orthodoxy presents as the result of covert Western campaigns of regime change – he outlines a new age in which: Wars are no longer declared and, having begun, proceed according to an unfamiliar template… [A] perfectly thriving state can, in a matter of months and even days, be transformed into an arena of fierce armed conflict, become a victim of foreign intervention, and sink into a morass of chaos, humanitarian catastrophe, and civil war. There are a variety of reasons why today’s Russia may find itself favouring operations in which, still to quote Gerasimov, ‘The open use of forces – often under the guise of peacekeeping and crisis regulation – is resorted to only at a certain stage, primarily for the achievement of final success in the conflict.’ For a start, despite the still-formidable Ukraine and Russia: People, Politics, Propaganda and Perspectives
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Edited collection E-IR.INFO Ukraine
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Ukraine and Russia: People, Politic
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ii Abstract The intense and dangero
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109 The Origins of Peace, Non-Viole
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1 Introduction Agnieszka Pikulicka-
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3 The second chapter, by Nicolai Pe
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5 processes behind the formation of
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7 European security, the internal c
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9 Ethnic and Social Composition of
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11 of the population considered Ukr
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13 Between these two magnets of the
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15 it has supported them with weapo
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17 References Aref’ev, A. L. (201
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19 Understanding the Other Ukraine:
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21 The Left Bank, which includes th
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23 Novorossiya Novorossiya, a name
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25 proposed by Mikhail Gorbachev. T
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27 Another specificity of this regi
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29 language. By contrast, their opp
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31 its rank within that district, a
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33 shifting the discourse of Ukrain
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35 Poluneev, Y. (2014) ‘Desyat’
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37 Since the fall of the Soviet Uni
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39 Figure 1: How Ukrainians View Ru
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41 former president Yanukovych to R
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43 Figure 3: Russians’ Approval o
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45 Figure 5: Russians’ and Ukrain
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47 justified in supporting the guer
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49 divergence could make the furthe
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51 Figure 10: Ukrainians’ Externa
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53 Figure 12: Ukrainians’ Foreign
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55 conditions (and which types of)
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57 Mikhanchuk, D. and Volosevych I.
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59 Roots and Features of Modern Ukr
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61 movement hesitated to set out th
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63 Europe after the fall of the Sov
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65 artificial mass starvation of th
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67 at least, to allow their childre
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69 Everyday Life After Annexation:
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71 The Crimean Tatars consider them
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73 Crimea as Part of Newly Independ
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75 A good example of this unevennes
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77 almost a parody, the government
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79 The Moscow Times (2014) ‘Medve
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81 Crimea before Secession and Russ
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83 allied with nationalist Ukrainia
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85 Some other Russian leaders - suc
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87 The Ukrainian government’s off
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89 Magocsi, P. R. (2014) This Bless
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91 In the title of the article, I h
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93 Russia and for the state status
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95 Language Law (K-K) that elevated
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97 The 2 May tragedy in Odessa was
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99 LB.ua (2014) ‘Poroshenko Iklyu
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101 Ukrainian Politics since Indepe
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103 and the stick of a legal and ta
Page 113 and 114: 105 Kuchma was, however, weakened b
Page 115 and 116: 107 Hromadske TV tapped new audienc
Page 117 and 118: 109 The Origins of Peace, Non-Viole
Page 119 and 120: 111 Rise of Authoritarian and Neo-S
Page 121 and 122: 113 who supported the independence
Page 123 and 124: 115 was the first of what became ca
Page 125 and 126: 117 2014). France’s neo-Nazi Fron
Page 127 and 128: 119 home (not NATO or EU). Spiritua
Page 129 and 130: 121 Kupchinsky, R. (2009) ‘The St
Page 131 and 132: 123 The Ukrainian Crisis and its Im
Page 133 and 134: 125 example of an almost blood-free
Page 135 and 136: 127 status. The ‘Russian World’
Page 137 and 138: 129 An Unnecessary War: The Geopoli
Page 139 and 140: 131 1997, p. 46). Ukraine’s new l
Page 141 and 142: 133 The US Position In the 1990s, t
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Page 145 and 146: 137 Tymoshenko’s release as a con
Page 147 and 148: 139 The chances for miscommunicatio
Page 149 and 150: 141 Between East and West: NATO Enl
Page 151 and 152: 143 That was more or less where mat
Page 153 and 154: 145 some point, his government woul
Page 155 and 156: 147 replaced by the ‘realist’ a
Page 157 and 158: 149 become members of NATO… There
Page 159 and 160: 151 Central to this project - not o
Page 161 and 162: 153 Editorial Board of The New York
Page 163: 155 section Three PROPAGANDA Ukrain
Page 167 and 168: 159 Service (SVR), the Main Intelli
Page 169 and 170: 161 government would make suitable
Page 171 and 172: 163 and political pressure represen
Page 173 and 174: 165 Putin’s Nationalism Problem P
Page 175 and 176: 167 nationalist support for the ele
Page 177 and 178: 169 main metropolitan centres of Mo
Page 179 and 180: 171 development (Bunin, 2014). For
Page 181 and 182: 173 Vladimir Putin: Making of the N
Page 183 and 184: 175 and socio-cultural structures o
Page 185 and 186: 177 To reflect these theoretical st
Page 187 and 188: 179 personnel, thus creating an ava
Page 189 and 190: 181 Gray, J. (2000) Two Faces of Li
Page 191 and 192: 183 Dominant Narratives in Russian
Page 193 and 194: 185 These narratives attribute vari
Page 195 and 196: 187 European states, on the other h
Page 197 and 198: 189 that Russia is still a vast, mu
Page 199 and 200: 191 Russia doesn’t abandon its ow
Page 201 and 202: 193 it has come under scrutiny in t
Page 203 and 204: 195 Putin V. (2014) radio interview
Page 205 and 206: 197 The Ukraine Story in Western Me
Page 207 and 208: 199 The Wall Street Journal, The Da
Page 209 and 210: 201 parliament called an emergency
Page 211 and 212: 203 Many reports presented the conf
Page 213 and 214: 205 BBC World Report (2014) ‘Ukra
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207 Russia’s annexation of the Cr
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209 version of the agreement on the
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211 Myth-Making as Geopolitics Ukra
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213 the Creator of a great civilisa
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215 Kolomoisky is back, and ready t
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217 Boiko, D. (2014) ‘Koalitsiia
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219 Motyl, A. (2014) ‘Putin, just
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221 UNA-UNSO (n.d.) ‘Zaiava UNA-U
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223 Western Economic Sanctions and
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225 on imports of fruit, vegetables
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227 To sum up so far, the economic
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229 self-sufficient, quasi-autarkic
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231 Conclusion As should now be cle
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233 Democracy and Geopolitics: Unde
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235 The defensive view sees Russia,
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237 word ‘sovereign’ in this fo
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239 If we focus primarily on territ
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241 Putin, V. (2014a) ‘Address by
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243 Any observer looking at Russian
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245 us - Russia ‘found itself in
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247 insists on referring to Western
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249 regime, particularly given that
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251 Diversity Policy in Ukraine and
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253 In brief, the main features of
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255 political parties. This phenome
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257 preferential treatment of the
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259 Prina, F. (2011) ‘Homogenisat
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261 The focus of this collection ha
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263 July 1989. He outlined a vision
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265 rich variety of other peoples,
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267 Russia, Ukraine, and the Breakd
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269 Yushchenko was torn by factiona
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271 Contributors Edwin Bacon is Rea
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273 aspects of contemporary Russian
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275 Press, 2008), and The Lukashenk
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277 http://nationalismwatch.wordpre
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279 The intense and dangerous turmo
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