High Food Price Impact Assessment and Analysis - WFP Remote ...

Likely impact on Ugandan
households of rising global food
prices
Dipayan Bhattacharyya
1
Total Population
Population Growth
rate
Poverty Headcount
P(1): Country Fact sheet
3.4%
Per capita GDP at
Market Prices
GDP growth rate at 9%
current market
prices
Per capita GDP 5.5%
growth rate at
current market
prices
Contribution of 21%
agriculture to GDP
at market prices
Inflation rate
29.6 million
Rural–32.4%
Urban–13.7%
UGX 21,000
(USD 13)
12.4% (food
15 4%)
• Surplus producer of maize; primary importer of
rice and wheat; exporter of maize in the region
• Main staples – Matoke (plantains), maize,
cassava, sorghum and beans
• Rice and breads are mainly consumed in urban
areas
LIVELIHOOD ZONES OF UGANDA
N
0 50 Kilometers
LEGEND
Fishing
Maize-Pineapple
Fishing-Tourism Maize-Gnuts
Fishing-Salt Extraction Tea-Livestock
Tea-Annual Crops
Fishing Cassava
Livestock
Tobacco-Coffee
Sorghum-Livestock Tobacco-Sugarcane
Cassava-Livestock Tobacco-Cassava
Maize-Livestock Horticultural
Millet-Livestock Sugarcane
Livestock-Rice Crop Production
Livestock-Banana Mixed Farming
Pastoral
Arabica-Coffee
Banana-Coffee
Cotton-Simsim
Banana-Annuals
Banana-Maize The Highland Plateau
Cassava-Coffee
Protected Areas
Cassava-Livestock-Cereal
Pulses-Cassava Urban/Peri-urban
Root Crop
Rice-Millet
Rice-Tobacco
Rice-cotton
2
Sorghum-Pigeon peas
Potato-sorghum
P(2): Objectives of the analysis
• Triggers - reports in the media, traders defaulting WFP tenders and
asking for higher prices An interagency team was formed that
recommended that expressed the need for an assessment.
The assessment has three objectives
• Analyze current food prices in Uganda and the future outlook
• Assess the current and foreseen impact of high market prices on
food security and welfare at the household level
• Consider immediate, mid-term, and long-term response options to
any negative impacts of rising global food prices on household
welfare and food security
The study was mainly national analysis of secondary
data with some ground-truthing from HH and market
surveys
Time period – 1.5 months; Budget – USD25,000
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P(3): Overview of the analysis
• IFPRI led the study with support from WFP, FAO
and UNICEF.
• Governments participation was limited to one
formal meeting, key informant interviews, data
analysis (PMA secretariat worked with IFPRI)
• Core research team was led by Food Security
Analyst, with support from market specialist and
statistical analyst.
• Data used – Uganda National Household Survey
2006, price data (Monthly-2000-08; weekly
2007-08); Market Survey (traders interviews at 7
regional markets); HH survey (in Northern
Uganda IDP areas)
4
EF(1): Determinants of high food
prices, food availability
• Rising global food prices should not directly affect
access of Ugandan households to most important
staples or significantly alter consumption
patterns.
– Should not see sustained, general significant food
price rises in Uganda.
– However since January 2008, there has been a sharp
upturn in prices, most notably for bean and maize
– Uganda is isolated from most global food markets.
• Regional market more important than global market.
• Several key staples for Uganda are only traded locally.
– Government does not need to act now to enhance
access to food for Ugandan households.
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• Karamoja and IDP population are important exceptions.
• Adopt an alert wait and see stance
EF(1): Why rising food prices in
Uganda
• Rising fuel costs.
– Food transport and processing costs have risen.
• Kenya’s post-election turmoil.
– Sharp reduction in planted area for long rains in
Kenya.
– Significant demand now and expected for coming
year.
– Maize, in particular.
• Southern Sudan and DR Congo are new
sources of demand for food from Uganda.
• Localized production problems.
– Sequence of poor cropping seasons in Karamoja;
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