Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty in Africa - CGSpace Home

1 Background
The world’s climate is continuing to change at rates that are projected to be unprecedented in
recent human history; the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) indicates that the global average surface temperature increased
by about 0.6 °C during the twentieth century, and that “… most of the warming observed
over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities.” The IPCC climate model
projections from 2001 suggest an increase in global average surface temperature of between
1.4 to 5.8 °C to 2100, the range depending largely on the scale of fossil-fuel burning between
now and then and on the different models used. More recent modelling work indicates that
the temperature increases to 2100 may be larger than those estimated in 2001 (Stainforth et
al., 2005; Lovelock, 2006).
The impacts of climate change are likely to be considerable in tropical regions. Overall, crop
yields may fall by 10 to 20% to 2050 because of warming and drying, but there are places
where yield losses may be much more severe (Jones and Thornton, 2003). Developing
countries are generally considered more vulnerable to the effects of climate change than more
developed countries, largely attributed to a low capacity to adapt in the developing world
(Thomas and Twyman, 2005). And of the developing countries, many in Africa are seen as
being the most vulnerable to climate variability and change (Slingo et al., 2005). High levels
of vulnerability and low adaptive capacity in the developing world have been linked to things
such as a high reliance on natural resources, limited ability to adapt financially and
institutionally, low per capita GDP and high poverty, and a lack of safety nets (Thomas and
Twyman, 2005). The challenges for development are considerable, not least because the
impacts are complex and highly uncertain. Despite this, there is considerable and increasing
activity on the part of development agencies and governments to come to grips with the
challenges, including the development of appropriate adaptation strategies.
DFID’s Central Research Department (CRD) is developing a research programme on climate
change and development in sub-Saharan Africa. The overall aims of the programme are to
improve the ability of poor people to be more resilient to current climate variability as well as
to the risks associated with longer-term climate change. The programme is being designed to
address four broad goals:
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