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Figure 9. Farming/livelihood systems classification for Africa, based on Seré and Steinfeld (1996), Kruska (2006), Dixon and Gulliver (2001) 42
Table 3. System codes used in the results tables Code Short System Description COAST Coastal artisanal fishing-based systems FORST Forest-based systems PEREN Highland perennial-based systems LGA Livestock only systems, arid-semiarid LGH Livestock only systems, humid-subhumid LGHYP Livestock only systems, hyper-arid LGT Livestock only systems, highland/temperate MIA Irrigated mixed crop/livestock systems, arid-subarid MIH Irrigated mixed crop/livestock systems, humid-subhumid MIHYP Irrigated mixed crop/livestock systems, hyper-arid MRA Rainfed mixed crop/livestock systems, arid-semiarid MRH Rainfed mixed crop/livestock systems, humid-subhumid MRHYP Rainfed mixed crop/livestock systems, hyper-arid MRT Rainfed mixed crop/livestock systems, highland/temperate OTHER Other systems, including root-crop-based and root-based mixed RITRE Rice-tree crop systems TREEC Tree crop systems URBAN Built-up areas as defined by GLC 2000 of the forest systems, although these are of course systems with long growing periods. There may be LGP reductions in the perennial systems in East Africa. The arid-semiarid livestock only systems are affected throughout SSA, and impacts may be heavy in the Sahel. The humid-subhumid livestock system impacts are also quite widely distributed, again with some concentration in West Africa. There is not as much agreement between the GCMs in terms of impacts on the highland/temperate livestock systems, although moderate impacts on LGP are indicated quite widely. For the mixed irrigated systems, again the arid-semiarid systems are likely to be affected (with impacts on water availability and water-use efficiency). For the mixed rainfed systems, there is good agreement between the GCMs in terms of impacts on the arid-semiarid systems, which are likely to be widespread and substantial. There is less agreement in terms of the humid-subhumid and highland/temperate systems, although for the 43
Page 1: Mapping climate vulnerability and p
Page 4 and 5: Citation Thornton PK, Jones PG, Owi
Page 6 and 7: egion of eastern Africa, the coasta
Page 8 and 9: Contents Executive summary 3 1 Back
Page 10 and 11: Tables Table 1. AOGCMs in the TYN S
Page 12 and 13: • Research to reduce uncertainty,
Page 14 and 15: 2 Project objectives and activities
Page 16 and 17: 3 Framework for the study The liter
Page 18 and 19: Figure 1. Representation of vulnera
Page 20 and 21: Conceptually, there is still a cons
Page 22 and 23: 4. Climate impacts in sub-Saharan A
Page 24 and 25: Table 1. AOGCMs in the TYN SC 2.0 d
Page 26 and 27: We then prepared similar climate gr
Page 28 and 29: Mapping changes to the probability
Page 30 and 31: confidence in the ability of that G
Page 32 and 33: Figure 5. Length of growing period
Page 34 and 35: Figure 6. Coefficient of variation
Page 36 and 37: Figure 7 (B). Percentage changes in
Page 38 and 39: Figure 7 (D). Percentage changes in
Page 40 and 41: Figure 8 (B). Percentage changes in
Page 42 and 43: • For human population, we now us
Page 46 and 47: Table 4. Country-by-system breakdow
Page 48 and 49: latter, the highland systems in sou
Page 50 and 51: Table 6. Country-by-system breakdow
Page 52 and 53: Table 8. Positive LGP changes to 20
Page 54 and 55: Figure11. Number of growing seasons
Page 56 and 57: 4.3 Uncertainties in the analysis T
Page 58 and 59: 5. Poverty and vulnerability The se
Page 60 and 61: Table 9. Vulnerability indicators u
Page 62 and 63: datasets (more information on this
Page 64 and 65: political process, civil liberties
Page 66 and 67: the major development issue facing
Page 68 and 69: scenarios. For this synthesis, the
Page 70 and 71: Table 11. Rotated component (or “
Page 72 and 73: Table 12. Synthesis of possible reg
Page 74 and 75: climate change-vulnerability hotspo
Page 76 and 77: contain components that draw far mo
Page 78 and 79: 6.1 A survey of information needs o
Page 80 and 81: unit; the International Red Cross;
Page 82 and 83: predominantly in southern Africa. I
Page 84 and 85: Table 13. Institutional preparednes
Page 86 and 87: particularly so for government and
Page 88 and 89: 6.2 Prospects for a decision suppor
Page 90 and 91: Figure 14. Stages of impact assessm
Page 92 and 93: An ex ante impact assessment might
Page 94 and 95:
A second issue relates to the setti
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A second key point that these resul
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References AchutaRao K, Covey C, Do
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Food and Agriculture Organisation o
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JRL (2005). GLC 2000 (Global Land C
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Roeckner E, Oberhuber J M, Bacher A
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Acronyms ACTS ASARECA CGIAR DFID EN
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Appendix 2. Candidate vulnerability
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Appendix 3. Country by system CV of
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Appendix 4 List of contacted instit
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112 Note 1. Indicators of Adaptive
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Box 1: Source: IPCC, 2001 1. Adapti
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irrigation and quality of infrastru
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Irrigation rate is measured by net
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moisture, especially in southern, N
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Bryman, A and D. Cramer . 1997. Qua
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Note 2. South-South Cooperation (pr
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• Effective policy frameworks in
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vulnerable countries in 12 selected
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130 Note 3. Climate Change and Heal
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impacts (developing nations). These
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most relevant for the case of HIV/A
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emerging infectious diseases; use o
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Within the Sub-Saharan region, the
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geographical shifts and yield reduc
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142 Note 4. The climate, developmen
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Figure 2 Percentage of undernourish
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The Africa Environment Outlook desc
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Figure 5 Total affected in hydro-me
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Figure 5 Present and future freshwa
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Turner B L, Kasperson R E, Matson P
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Note 5. The Sub-Saharan Africa Chal
Page 158 and 159:
Several useful lessons were learned
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Note 6. The ASARECA priority settin
Page 162 and 163:
Figure 1. Development domains and a
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Note 7. The SLP’s food-feed impac
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Figure 2. Domains in Kenya with hig
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Note 8. The SAKSS poverty targettin
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168 Note 9. Simulating regional pro
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Applications (ICASA). The results f
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