Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty in Africa - CGSpace Home

More documents

Recommendations

Info

• Research to reduce uncertainty, including analytical assessments of vulnerability and implications for poverty reduction; • Strengthening capacity, including that of African scientists, governments, civil society organizations, international bodies and donors to assess, plan and implement adaptation strategies; • Supporting adaptation by rural and urban people, particularly the most vulnerable, by supporting action research that contributes to better understanding, more inclusion, and adaptive learning and management; • Adding value to existing adaptation initiatives, to enable African scientists to apply expertise and carry out research in support of adaptation projects. The research programme will consider the knowledge implications of interacting and multiple stresses, such as HIV/AIDS and climate change, on the vulnerability of the poor, and it will concentrate on approaches that work where government structures are weak. To enable CRD to make informed decisions on where to locate the research and where to put in place uptake pathways for research outputs, information is required that relates projected poverty data with climate vulnerability for sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). As the climate change research will address issues of household and community resilience and mechanisms of adaptation, present and future climatic variability are important factors. ILRI was asked to attempt some vulnerability mapping for SSA over a few months, from September 2005 to March 2006, if possible at a sub-national level, that could be used to help guide research resource allocation decisions, in terms of the question, where should activities be concentrated. ILRI has had previous experience of broad-brush mapping to assist in the targetting of livestock-related research aimed at poverty alleviation. The vulnerability mapping work described here can be seen as one extension of the livestock poverty mapping work of 2002. That work was undertaken to produce sets of maps that located significant populations of poor livestock keepers, and to assess in very broad terms how poor livestock keeping populations were likely to change to 2050. The key findings of that study were that (a) in terms of numbers of poor people and of poor livestock keepers, as far as could be ascertained, the critical areas are South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa; and (b), the impacts of population growth and climate change in livestock systems are likely to be considerable, 10
pointing up the need for adaptation and mitigation work in sub-Saharan Africa. The study also identified several research needs, including the necessity of identifying better the likely hotspots of change, more collaborative assembling of global data sets, the importance of high-resolution poverty mapping, and better understanding of poverty –resource degradation links. The work was written up in Thornton et al. (2002; 2003) and Kruska et al. (2003). The information generated was subsequently used in an animal health priority setting study for Asia and Africa (Perry et al., 2003). The broader impacts of the livestock mapping work are not easy to ascertain, although the work did stimulate others to help support the production of high-resolution country poverty maps in East Africa (these now exist for Kenya and Uganda and will exist shortly for Tanzania). It has also stimulated other studies that seek to identify the spatial determinants of poverty and the relationship between poverty and environmental degradation (see, for example, Kristjanson et al., 2005). It may also have had a modest influence on priority setting in other agencies and in targeting livestock investments. The work described in this report is one small piece of a much larger activity that has involved DFID in commissioning several studies on the issue of climate change and appropriate research for development. These include the Africa Climate Report (Washington et al., 2004), and Climate Change and Development: Consultation on Key Researchable Issues (Huq and Reid, 2005), among others. The latter study has helped to clarify the critical researchable issues. The work described below is designed to help throw some light on the question, where geographically in sub-Saharan Africa might research resources be concentrated to address effectively the issues of the poor and vulnerable in the face of inevitable climate change. 11
Page 1: Mapping climate vulnerability and p
Page 4 and 5: Citation Thornton PK, Jones PG, Owi
Page 6 and 7: egion of eastern Africa, the coasta
Page 8 and 9: Contents Executive summary 3 1 Back
Page 10 and 11: Tables Table 1. AOGCMs in the TYN S
Page 14 and 15: 2 Project objectives and activities
Page 16 and 17: 3 Framework for the study The liter
Page 18 and 19: Figure 1. Representation of vulnera
Page 20 and 21: Conceptually, there is still a cons
Page 22 and 23: 4. Climate impacts in sub-Saharan A
Page 24 and 25: Table 1. AOGCMs in the TYN SC 2.0 d
Page 26 and 27: We then prepared similar climate gr
Page 28 and 29: Mapping changes to the probability
Page 30 and 31: confidence in the ability of that G
Page 32 and 33: Figure 5. Length of growing period
Page 34 and 35: Figure 6. Coefficient of variation
Page 36 and 37: Figure 7 (B). Percentage changes in
Page 38 and 39: Figure 7 (D). Percentage changes in
Page 40 and 41: Figure 8 (B). Percentage changes in
Page 42 and 43: • For human population, we now us
Page 44 and 45: Figure 9. Farming/livelihood system
Page 46 and 47: Table 4. Country-by-system breakdow
Page 48 and 49: latter, the highland systems in sou
Page 50 and 51: Table 6. Country-by-system breakdow
Page 52 and 53: Table 8. Positive LGP changes to 20
Page 54 and 55: Figure11. Number of growing seasons
Page 56 and 57: 4.3 Uncertainties in the analysis T
Page 58 and 59: 5. Poverty and vulnerability The se
Page 60 and 61: Table 9. Vulnerability indicators u
Page 62 and 63:
datasets (more information on this
Page 64 and 65:
political process, civil liberties
Page 66 and 67:
the major development issue facing
Page 68 and 69:
scenarios. For this synthesis, the
Page 70 and 71:
Table 11. Rotated component (or “
Page 72 and 73:
Table 12. Synthesis of possible reg
Page 74 and 75:
climate change-vulnerability hotspo
Page 76 and 77:
contain components that draw far mo
Page 78 and 79:
6.1 A survey of information needs o
Page 80 and 81:
unit; the International Red Cross;
Page 82 and 83:
predominantly in southern Africa. I
Page 84 and 85:
Table 13. Institutional preparednes
Page 86 and 87:
particularly so for government and
Page 88 and 89:
6.2 Prospects for a decision suppor
Page 90 and 91:
Figure 14. Stages of impact assessm
Page 92 and 93:
An ex ante impact assessment might
Page 94 and 95:
A second issue relates to the setti
Page 96 and 97:
A second key point that these resul
Page 98 and 99:
References AchutaRao K, Covey C, Do
Page 100 and 101:
Food and Agriculture Organisation o
Page 102 and 103:
JRL (2005). GLC 2000 (Global Land C
Page 104 and 105:
Roeckner E, Oberhuber J M, Bacher A
Page 106 and 107:
Acronyms ACTS ASARECA CGIAR DFID EN
Page 108 and 109:
Appendix 2. Candidate vulnerability
Page 110 and 111:
Appendix 3. Country by system CV of
Page 112 and 113:
Appendix 4 List of contacted instit
Page 114 and 115:
112 Note 1. Indicators of Adaptive
Page 116 and 117:
Box 1: Source: IPCC, 2001 1. Adapti
Page 118 and 119:
irrigation and quality of infrastru
Page 120 and 121:
Irrigation rate is measured by net
Page 122 and 123:
moisture, especially in southern, N
Page 124 and 125:
Bryman, A and D. Cramer . 1997. Qua
Page 126 and 127:
Note 2. South-South Cooperation (pr
Page 128 and 129:
• Effective policy frameworks in
Page 130 and 131:
vulnerable countries in 12 selected
Page 132 and 133:
130 Note 3. Climate Change and Heal
Page 134 and 135:
impacts (developing nations). These
Page 136 and 137:
most relevant for the case of HIV/A
Page 138 and 139:
emerging infectious diseases; use o
Page 140 and 141:
Within the Sub-Saharan region, the
Page 142 and 143:
geographical shifts and yield reduc
Page 144 and 145:
142 Note 4. The climate, developmen
Page 146 and 147:
Figure 2 Percentage of undernourish
Page 148 and 149:
The Africa Environment Outlook desc
Page 150 and 151:
Figure 5 Total affected in hydro-me
Page 152 and 153:
Figure 5 Present and future freshwa
Page 154 and 155:
Turner B L, Kasperson R E, Matson P
Page 156 and 157:
Note 5. The Sub-Saharan Africa Chal
Page 158 and 159:
Several useful lessons were learned
Page 160 and 161:
Note 6. The ASARECA priority settin
Page 162 and 163:
Figure 1. Development domains and a
Page 164 and 165:
Note 7. The SLP’s food-feed impac
Page 166 and 167:
Figure 2. Domains in Kenya with hig
Page 168 and 169:
Note 8. The SAKSS poverty targettin
Page 170 and 171:
168 Note 9. Simulating regional pro
Page 172 and 173:
Applications (ICASA). The results f
show all

Mapping climate vulnerability and poverty in Africa - CGSpace Home

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?