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egion of eastern Africa, the coastal regions of eastern Africa, and many of the drier zones of southern Africa. There are several limitations to the analysis and to the availability of data for such work. For the future, considerable emphasis needs to be placed on collaborative efforts to collect and greatly improve the store of baseline information, on understanding very well the needs of potential users, on developing more flexible and generic frameworks for assessing vulnerability, taking advantage of the experiences of others in vulnerability assessment work in developing-country contexts through southsouth collaboration, and on incorporating scenario analysis into the impact assessment framework. The project also involved a study of the potential uses of information concerning climate variability and climate change for effective decision-making. A small survey of potential users was carried out. Findings of the survey confirm the results of other scoping studies: there are broad needs across many different sectors in terms of capacity building and opportunities for research in the future, including vulnerability mapping at different levels. The report concludes with a discussion of the feasibility of expanding the methods and tools used here to develop a tool box that could be used for cross-sectoral ex-ante assessment of interventions related to climate change and coping mechanisms. There are several challenges that have to be addressed, but there are good prospects for developing a useful framework. The work has highlighted two other key points. First, even allowing for the technical problems and uncertainties associated with the analysis, it is clear that macro-level analyses, while useful, can hide enormous variability concerning what may be complex responses to climate change. There is considerable heterogeneity in households’ access to resources, poverty levels, and ability to cope. Vulnerability and impact assessment work can certainly be usefully guided by macro-level analyses, but ultimately this work has to be done at regional and national levels. Second, these results have underlined that local responses to climate change through time are not necessarily linear. In terms of adaptation strategies, far more work is needed on the dynamics of change through time and on the dynamics of household responses. If adaptation itself has to be seen as an essentially dynamic, continuous and non-linear process, this has considerable implications for the tools and methods needed to guide it, and for the indicators and threshold analyses that will be needed. The sciences of climate modelling and vulnerability assessment are developing rapidly, and over time some of the key technical issues that remain are likely to be resolved. At the same time, there are several other issues that have to be addressed. One is the necessity of communities starting to take centre stage in conducting vulnerability analysis and implementation to enhance their long-term capacities for adaptation. Another is the organisational changes that are needed to face the threat that climate change poses to development: climate change is inevitable, and it will add burdens to those who are already poor and vulnerable. A third issue is that Africa appears to have some of the greatest burdens of climate change impacts, certainly from the human health and agricultural perspectives; it is a region with generally limited ability to cope and adapt; and it has some of the lowest per capita emissions of the greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming. The likely impacts of climate change thus present a global ethical challenge as well as a development and scientific challenge, and this challenge has to be addressed by all of us. 4
Project Team At the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) Nairobi, Kenya Philip Thornton Tom Owiyo Russ Kruska Mario Herrero Patti Kristjanson An Notenbaert Nigat Bekele Abisalom Omolo Waen Associates Dolgellau, UK Peter Jones At the African Centre for Technology Studies (ACTS) Nairobi, Kenya Victor Orindi Andrew Ochieng Brian Otiende At The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) New Delhi, India Ms Suruchi Bhadwal Ms Kadambari Anantram Ms Sreeja Nair Dr Vivek Kumar Ms Ulka Kelkar Without implicating them in any way, we thank the following for inputs to this work, including comments on the report: Norbert Henninger, Timothy Mitchell, Simon Carter, Jenny Olson, Robin Reid, Ruth Doherty, Declan Conway, John Lynam, Richard Washington and Ade Freeman. Errors and omissions remain solely our responsibility. 5
Page 1: Mapping climate vulnerability and p
Page 4 and 5: Citation Thornton PK, Jones PG, Owi
Page 8 and 9: Contents Executive summary 3 1 Back
Page 10 and 11: Tables Table 1. AOGCMs in the TYN S
Page 12 and 13: • Research to reduce uncertainty,
Page 14 and 15: 2 Project objectives and activities
Page 16 and 17: 3 Framework for the study The liter
Page 18 and 19: Figure 1. Representation of vulnera
Page 20 and 21: Conceptually, there is still a cons
Page 22 and 23: 4. Climate impacts in sub-Saharan A
Page 24 and 25: Table 1. AOGCMs in the TYN SC 2.0 d
Page 26 and 27: We then prepared similar climate gr
Page 28 and 29: Mapping changes to the probability
Page 30 and 31: confidence in the ability of that G
Page 32 and 33: Figure 5. Length of growing period
Page 34 and 35: Figure 6. Coefficient of variation
Page 36 and 37: Figure 7 (B). Percentage changes in
Page 38 and 39: Figure 7 (D). Percentage changes in
Page 40 and 41: Figure 8 (B). Percentage changes in
Page 42 and 43: • For human population, we now us
Page 44 and 45: Figure 9. Farming/livelihood system
Page 46 and 47: Table 4. Country-by-system breakdow
Page 48 and 49: latter, the highland systems in sou
Page 50 and 51: Table 6. Country-by-system breakdow
Page 52 and 53: Table 8. Positive LGP changes to 20
Page 54 and 55: Figure11. Number of growing seasons
Page 56 and 57:
4.3 Uncertainties in the analysis T
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5. Poverty and vulnerability The se
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Table 9. Vulnerability indicators u
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datasets (more information on this
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political process, civil liberties
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the major development issue facing
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scenarios. For this synthesis, the
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Table 11. Rotated component (or “
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Table 12. Synthesis of possible reg
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climate change-vulnerability hotspo
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contain components that draw far mo
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6.1 A survey of information needs o
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unit; the International Red Cross;
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predominantly in southern Africa. I
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Table 13. Institutional preparednes
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particularly so for government and
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6.2 Prospects for a decision suppor
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Figure 14. Stages of impact assessm
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An ex ante impact assessment might
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A second issue relates to the setti
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A second key point that these resul
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References AchutaRao K, Covey C, Do
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Food and Agriculture Organisation o
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JRL (2005). GLC 2000 (Global Land C
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Roeckner E, Oberhuber J M, Bacher A
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Acronyms ACTS ASARECA CGIAR DFID EN
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Appendix 2. Candidate vulnerability
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Appendix 3. Country by system CV of
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Appendix 4 List of contacted instit
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112 Note 1. Indicators of Adaptive
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Box 1: Source: IPCC, 2001 1. Adapti
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irrigation and quality of infrastru
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Irrigation rate is measured by net
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moisture, especially in southern, N
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Bryman, A and D. Cramer . 1997. Qua
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Note 2. South-South Cooperation (pr
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• Effective policy frameworks in
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vulnerable countries in 12 selected
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130 Note 3. Climate Change and Heal
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impacts (developing nations). These
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most relevant for the case of HIV/A
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emerging infectious diseases; use o
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Within the Sub-Saharan region, the
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geographical shifts and yield reduc
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142 Note 4. The climate, developmen
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Figure 2 Percentage of undernourish
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The Africa Environment Outlook desc
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Figure 5 Total affected in hydro-me
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Figure 5 Present and future freshwa
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Turner B L, Kasperson R E, Matson P
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Note 5. The Sub-Saharan Africa Chal
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Several useful lessons were learned
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Note 6. The ASARECA priority settin
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Figure 1. Development domains and a
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Note 7. The SLP’s food-feed impac
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Figure 2. Domains in Kenya with hig
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Note 8. The SAKSS poverty targettin
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168 Note 9. Simulating regional pro
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Applications (ICASA). The results f
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