10 interview ‘Mobility could increase sixfold’ In the coming years, trucks and buses will become increasingly important for the transport of passengers and goods, forecasts Stephen Perkins, head of the Joint Transport Research Centre of the International Transport Forum at the OECD in Paris. He explains how mobility can still be managed in a world with nine billion people. <strong>MAN</strong> Forum: The world’s population is expected to reach the seven billion mark this fall. In 2025 it will be eight billion, and by 2050 more than nine billion. Is the volume of transport increasing at the same rate? Perkins: Actually, it’s increasing even faster. The number of passenger kilometers will be multiplied three or four times over the same period. In China, the number of trips taken could very likely even be multiplied by six. This development also depends on the question of whether China will follow the Japanese model—with highly concentrated big cities and a well-developed public transport system—or rather imitate the European and North American pattern, with far-flung residential settlements. Is that why mobility is increasing more rapidly than the population? Because the Chinese are emulating the Europeans? No, it is because incomes are rising. More and more people commute from the suburbs to the city, the number of business trips is growing and people take more holidays. The volume of freight is rising at a disproportionate rate, because increasingly production operations are distributed around the globe. It is still very much cheaper to transport small quantities of unfinished products just in time for final assembly than to ship big consignments which have to be put into intermediate storage at the plant. A growing proportion of freight transport is being handled by road, by truck. Why is this? Roads are everywhere, with a greater reach than other transport modes. They are flexible, suited for the growing commercial sector and also provide the first and final legs for other transport channels. Road’s main competitor is rail. If the rail system were to carry all of the forecast growth in freight, enormous investments in infrastructure would be required. So it’s all about making transport and logistics as efficient as possible. In this regard, long trucks can also help reduce the number of vehicles on the primary routes. In many countries, high-capacity trucks are a controversial topic. Critics are afraid that they present an increased risk of accidents, because these vehicles are so difficult to control. They are not difficult to control. In fact, they are equipped to higher standards than the average vehicle. Braking performance is better. The length of the vehicle means the benefits of some advanced safety technologies such as lane guard systems are particularly significant. Until such advanced technologies are required on all vehicles, there is an opportunity for voluntary agreements or special licensing arrangements for higher-capacity vehicles to be equipped to the highest standards. The costs of these systems can be easily covered, as long trucks are much more profitable than conventional vehicles. Will air travel, road and rail at least be more effectively interlinked in future? It’s hard to say. The problem is always the same: Reloading a consignment from one mode of transport to another costs money. But logistics businesses have strong incentives for finding the most efficient combinations, as the transport operations of companies like DHL and TNT show every day. Allowing the market to drive efficiencies on all the modes is important to achieving efficient system-wide intermodal links. What about oil prices? How can road transport continue to look more appealing than rail in future, when the cost of gas goes on mounting as it has done in the past? Despite increases in oil prices, other factors like labor and capital weigh heavier in transport costs, and overall transport costs account on average for only a few percentage points of the final cost of goods. The cost of gas could continue to rise for quite a while without changing the situation, and in real terms today’s oil price is only around 10 percent higher than the peak in the second oil crisis in 1980. In addition, manufacturers such as <strong>MAN</strong> are developing technologies to optimize engines, improve aerodynamics and reduce Photo: Prisca Martaguet
“Long trucks are much more profitable than conventional vehicles.” Stephen Perkins, head of the Joint Transport Research Centre at the OECD
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