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Fourth Quarter 2011<br />

<strong>Russell</strong> Communiqué<br />

Current and emerging investment issues: <strong>Russell</strong> perspective<br />

<strong>Implementing</strong> <strong>LDI</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>swaptions</strong><br />

Also in this issue:<br />

8 Volatility-responsive asset allocation: The results in practice<br />

11 Climate change and investments, or: “Why should I care?”<br />

12 Q&A: The evolution of target date investing


EXECUTIVE VIEW<br />

3 Dealing <strong>with</strong> change:<br />

Applying the lessons of a thousand clichés<br />

By: Bob Collie, FIA, Chief Research Strategist, Americas Institutional<br />

INVESTMENT FOCUS<br />

4 <strong>Implementing</strong> <strong>LDI</strong> <strong>with</strong> <strong>swaptions</strong><br />

By: Lisa Cavallari, Director, Fixed Income Derivatives, and<br />

Martin Jaugietis, CFA, Head of <strong>LDI</strong> Solutions<br />

As the popularity of liability-driven investing (<strong>LDI</strong>) continues to increase, so does<br />

the number of ways to implement an <strong>LDI</strong> program. This article discusses one such<br />

instrument: an option on interest rate swaps, generally referred to as a “swaption.”<br />

It also describes how <strong>swaptions</strong> can fit especially well into a program designed to<br />

reduce risk in accordance <strong>with</strong> a liability-responsive asset allocation (LRAA) schedule.<br />

CLIENT FOCUS<br />

8 Volatility-responsive asset allocation:<br />

The results in practice<br />

By: Bob Collie, FIA, Chief Research Strategist; Mike Sylvanus, Senior Investment Strategist; and<br />

Michael Thomas, CFA, Head of Consulting and Chief Investment Officer<br />

In last quarter’s Communiqué, Mike Thomas explained how volatility is itself variable<br />

over time and how an investment policy that responds to those variations might<br />

be designed. How would such policy perform? And what impact would following<br />

a volatility-responsive asset allocation strategy have on risk and returns?<br />

OPINION<br />

11 Climate change and investments, or: “Why should I care?”<br />

By: Greg Liddell, Managing Director, Consulting & Advisory Services—Australasia<br />

Few issues have generated more skepticism than the subject of climate<br />

change. In this article, Greg Liddell outlines why it matters to fiduciaries.<br />

Q&A<br />

12 The evolution of target date investing<br />

With Josh Cohen, Defined Contribution Practice Leader<br />

In this brief interview, Josh Cohen discusses developments and trends<br />

in target date investing.<br />

GREAT MOMENTS IN FINANCIAL HISTORY<br />

14 The opening of the Lions Gate<br />

By: Aran Murphy, Product Strategist<br />

<strong>Russell</strong> <strong>Investments</strong> // <strong>Russell</strong> Communiqué p / 2


EXECUTIVE VIEW<br />

Dealing <strong>with</strong> change: Applying<br />

the lessons of a thousand clichés<br />

Dear Readers,<br />

Like it or loathe it, there’s no avoiding change. We are, of course, supposed to embrace it,<br />

to never stop learning, and to apply lots of other advice that has unfortunately lost its luster<br />

through overuse and passed into the realm of cliché—which doesn’t make it bad advice. So,<br />

although it wins us no points for the originality of the theme, change is the thread that runs<br />

through this issue of Communiqué.<br />

Change comes in many forms. We are slowest to accept change when it challenges our old<br />

way of seeing the world, when it calls into question long-held opinions or practices that have<br />

become part of our fabric. For example, for many years institutional investors saw strategic<br />

asset allocation as fixed asset allocation, but it doesn’t have to be. One of the biggest themes<br />

in our work <strong>with</strong> institutional investors over the past couple of years has been a much more<br />

dynamic approach to asset allocation—all the while retaining the discipline and long-term<br />

perspective that distinguish the strategic from the tactical. The catalyst that made this change<br />

possible was liability-responsive asset allocation: a dynamic—but strategic—approach that<br />

opened the door to the possibility of other forms of dynamic strategic allocation.<br />

In this issue, we pick up the theme of volatility-responsive asset allocation that was introduced<br />

in last quarter’s Communiqué and look at the evidence that adjusting asset allocation in<br />

response to market volatility can help in the management of risk. Lisa Cavallari and Marty<br />

Jaugietis take a look at <strong>swaptions</strong>, an emerging tool for <strong>LDI</strong> managers, describing how these<br />

instruments work and how they can help manage interest rate exposure for defined benefit<br />

plans. Our Q&A column turns to the world of defined contribution and looks at how target<br />

date funds (TDFs) are already changing as the first generation of TDF products is replaced<br />

by a more flexible design approach. This quarter’s Opinion article looks at another type of<br />

change—climate change—as Greg Liddell argues the case for why investors need to pay<br />

more attention than they do.<br />

Thank you for reading,<br />

Bob Collie<br />

Bob Collie,<br />

Chief Research Strategist, Americas Institutional<br />

p / 3


STRATEGY TIMING IMPLEMENTATION<br />

INVESTMENT FOCUS<br />

<strong>Implementing</strong> <strong>LDI</strong><br />

<strong>with</strong> <strong>swaptions</strong><br />

By: Lisa Cavallari, Director, Fixed Income Derivatives, and Martin Jaugietis, CFA, Head of <strong>LDI</strong> Solutions<br />

Lisa Cavallari<br />

Martin Jaugietis<br />

1<br />

For more details of the<br />

swaption market, see<br />

Tom Fletcher (2011),<br />

“Conditional interest<br />

rate trades when the<br />

yield curve is steep:<br />

development of the<br />

case for swaption use,”<br />

<strong>Russell</strong> <strong>Investments</strong>.<br />

With the increased adoption of liability-driven investing (<strong>LDI</strong>) by corporate<br />

defined benefit (DB) pension plans, the range of instruments available to<br />

help implement <strong>LDI</strong> programs has widened. One of these instruments is an<br />

option on interest rate swaps, generally referred to as a “swaption,” which<br />

can fit especially well into a program designed to reduce risk in accordance<br />

<strong>with</strong> a liability-responsive asset allocation (LRAA) schedule.<br />

Available instruments for implementation of an <strong>LDI</strong> program include Treasury bonds;<br />

corporate and other non-government bonds; exchange-traded derivatives, such as interest<br />

rate futures and options; and over-the-counter (OTC) instruments, such as swaps and options<br />

on swaps. It is the OTC market and, in particular, options on interest rate swaps (“<strong>swaptions</strong>”)<br />

that we will examine in this article.<br />

What is a swaption?<br />

An interest rate swap is, as the name suggests, an exchange of one interest rate for another.<br />

For example, one investor might agree to pay another a fixed rate for 10 years (the fixed rate<br />

being determined by the current market level of interest rates) and in return receive a floating<br />

rate (the floating rate being determined by a market rate such as the London Interbank Offer<br />

Rate, or LIBOR). The effect is similar to that of an investor’s selling a 10-year bond and holding<br />

cash. Because the terms of the swap are based on current market rates, no money needs to<br />

change hands at the outset; the value of the obligation to pay one interest rate and the right<br />

to receive the other are equal at the outset, although that will change once the terms are<br />

established and as market prices then move over time.<br />

A swaption is an option to enter into a swap trade. 1 A “3y10y” swaption is the right to enter into<br />

a 10-year swap trade in three years, based on terms that are set today. An example: suppose<br />

you buy a receiver swaption, i.e., an option to receive a fixed rate and pay a floating rate for<br />

10 years starting in three years. Fast-forward three years: if the terms that are available on the<br />

10-year swap at that time are better than those in the swaption, then you will not exercise the<br />

option. If the terms in the swaption are better, then you will exercise it. As <strong>with</strong> all options, you<br />

are in a good position if you are the holder of the option; if you like the deal at the exercise date,<br />

you win—if you don’t like the deal, you don’t lose. And, as <strong>with</strong> all options, that good position<br />

comes at a price: a premium has to be paid at the outset to buy the option.<br />

Swaptions and LRAA<br />

What makes <strong>swaptions</strong> intriguing in an <strong>LDI</strong> context is their conditionality, as well as their<br />

potential interaction <strong>with</strong> an LRAA schedule.<br />

<strong>Russell</strong> <strong>Investments</strong> // <strong>Russell</strong> Communiqué p / 4


RUSSELL INVESTMENTS<br />

In today’s low interest rate environment,<br />

many plan sponsors have been reluctant<br />

to fully eliminate the interest rate risk<br />

in their plans but have preferred a more<br />

incremental approach to <strong>LDI</strong>. In this sense,<br />

one application of LRAA is to increase<br />

the duration of a plan’s fixed income<br />

investments incrementally as the allocation<br />

to fixed income increases overall. 2 While this<br />

approach has some merit, the unfortunate<br />

outcome for most plans in the very early<br />

stages of their LRAA and/or <strong>LDI</strong> programs<br />

has been that they remain in very shortduration<br />

positions vis-à-vis liabilities, and<br />

funding levels have suffered in the recent<br />

declining interest rate environment.<br />

The ultimate goal in an <strong>LDI</strong> portfolio is to<br />

increase the duration exposure of fixed<br />

income investments, and we know that<br />

plan sponsors want protection against<br />

declining interest rates. One version of a<br />

swaption trade—the “zero-cost collar,”<br />

discussed below—provides this type of<br />

exposure by offering protection against<br />

declining interest rates in exchange for the<br />

promise to enter a swap at a certain interest<br />

rate above current rates. While there are<br />

many moving parts in this version, these<br />

higher rates can potentially be aligned at<br />

levels along the LRAA schedule, where<br />

the plan sponsor would be increasing the<br />

duration exposure of the fixed income<br />

portfolio in any case.<br />

An example of a swaption trade:<br />

the zero-cost collar<br />

The swaption trade we describe below is<br />

based on buying a receiver swaption at a<br />

low interest rate (to offer the protection<br />

we’d like to have, should rates fall) matched<br />

by selling a payer swaption 3 at a higher<br />

rate (the rate at which we are likely to be<br />

seeking longer-duration exposure anyway).<br />

For convenience, the terms of the two deals<br />

can be chosen such that the premium paid<br />

for buying the protection of the receiver<br />

swaption is equal to the premium collected<br />

for selling the payer swaption.<br />

Exhibit 1: Rates<br />

Swap curve date 8/30/2011<br />

10y (spot) 2.36<br />

3y10y (forward) 3.41<br />

Source: Bloomberg<br />

Exhibit 2: Strategies<br />

Strategy<br />

Zero-cost<br />

swaption<br />

collar<br />

Payer<br />

strike<br />

Receiver<br />

strike<br />

A 3y10y+50 3.91 3.04<br />

B 3y10y+100 4.41 2.70<br />

C 3y10y+150 4.91 2.38<br />

D 3y10y+200 5.41 2.10<br />

Source: Bloomberg<br />

The interest rates associated <strong>with</strong> such<br />

a trade, as of August 30, 2011, are shown<br />

in Exhibit 1. At that date, the at-themoney-forward<br />

(ATMF) rate was 3.41% 4 .<br />

In Exhibit 2, the payer swaption strikes<br />

at 50-basis-points-higher increments are<br />

3.91%, 4.41%, 4.91% and 5.41%. The<br />

strike shown for the receiver swaption is<br />

in each case the strike that results in an<br />

equal premium for the two <strong>swaptions</strong> (i.e.<br />

creating a zero-cost collar).<br />

In Exhibit 3, we illustrate the effect of<br />

these strategies by looking at the impact<br />

of interest rate shock at option expiration<br />

on an example plan that is 80% funded.<br />

The first thing we note is that all of the<br />

swaption strategies reduce the impact of<br />

interest rate variation on the funded status<br />

of the plan. This should not be a surprise:<br />

in each example strategy there is a built-in<br />

exposure to interest rates, so it becomes a<br />

de-risking strategy for any DB plan whose<br />

liabilities are driven by interest rates.<br />

2<br />

For a description of this<br />

strategy, see Jim Gannon<br />

& Bob Collie (2009),<br />

“Liability-Responsive<br />

Asset Allocation,” <strong>Russell</strong><br />

Viewpoint.<br />

3<br />

A payer swaption being<br />

the right to pay the fixed<br />

rate and receive the<br />

floating.<br />

4<br />

This can be thought of<br />

as the 10-year swap rate<br />

which current pricing<br />

implies the market expects<br />

in three years’ time.<br />

p / 5


INVESTMENT FOCUS (continued)<br />

Exhibit 3: Strategies’ impact on funded status<br />

120%<br />

115%<br />

110%<br />

105%<br />

Funded status<br />

100%<br />

95%<br />

90%<br />

85%<br />

80%<br />

75%<br />

70%<br />

-200 0 100 200 300 400<br />

Spot swap curve changes (basis points)<br />

Original Strategy A Strategy B Strategy C Strategy D<br />

5<br />

For an expansion of<br />

this point, see Michael<br />

Thomas and Greg<br />

Nordquist (2011),<br />

“Interest rate <strong>swaptions</strong>—<br />

downside protection you<br />

can live <strong>with</strong>,” <strong>Russell</strong><br />

Research.<br />

Next we note that in the event of a fall in<br />

rates, we do get the downside protection we<br />

would like. Indeed, because the yield curve<br />

is currently steep, we get protection not just<br />

against rates going down, but also against<br />

rates not going up by as much as expected<br />

due to some of the receiver strikes being<br />

above the current 10-year spot rate. With so<br />

much talk of downside protection strategies<br />

being focused on falls in equity markets, it<br />

is easy to forget that downside protection<br />

on the liability side of a DB plan’s balance<br />

sheet can offer better value than downside<br />

protection on the asset side.<br />

Over time, the impact of the strategies<br />

becomes different. At the three-year horizon<br />

(the point at which the options will either<br />

be exercised or not exercised), rates might<br />

be low enough that the receiver swaption is<br />

exercised; they might be high enough that<br />

the payer swaption is exercised; or they<br />

might fall into the range between (in which<br />

case, nothing happens).<br />

As already mentioned, if rates are low, then<br />

the strategy pays off, reducing the negative<br />

effect that the fall in rates has on the plan’s<br />

funded status. If rates are high, funded<br />

status has improved, but the strategy<br />

results in a loss (this is the price that is paid<br />

for the downside protection). If either option<br />

is exercised, then the plan finds itself <strong>with</strong><br />

an increased exposure to interest rates: this<br />

is the previously mentioned tie-in to LRAA<br />

in the case of a rise in rates.<br />

Variation in attractiveness of pricing<br />

In general, protection for investors is<br />

expensive. The price that must be paid for<br />

downside protection is often significant.<br />

Pricing does, however, vary over time.<br />

In the case of the interest rate swaption<br />

<strong>Russell</strong> <strong>Investments</strong> // <strong>Russell</strong> Communiqué p / 6


RUSSELL INVESTMENTS<br />

trade, there are times when market supply<br />

and demand can act in favor of DB plans. 5<br />

Versus historical levels, <strong>swaptions</strong>’ current<br />

levels may be attractive enough to warrant<br />

consideration. 6 Indeed, the consensus<br />

(due to sovereign risk concerns, debt<br />

downgrades, inflation concerns or other<br />

reasons) has been that interest rates will<br />

rise, so most investors have been seeking<br />

protection against this scenario. Pension<br />

plans, on the other hand, which seek<br />

protection from falling interest rates, appear<br />

very much in the minority on the demand<br />

versus supply ledger. The purchase of such<br />

protection is therefore currently (at time<br />

of this writing) cheaper than it has been<br />

historically. Investors should keep in mind<br />

the variability of pricing over time—the<br />

strategy we have described here makes a<br />

lot more sense in certain circumstances than<br />

it does in others.<br />

Conclusion: another instrument<br />

in the <strong>LDI</strong> toolbox<br />

We have seen that <strong>swaptions</strong> can help<br />

to reduce the exposure of a DB plan to<br />

variations in interest rates and thus form<br />

part of an <strong>LDI</strong> program, and that the<br />

conditionality built into <strong>swaptions</strong> can<br />

mirror the design of an LRAA strategy.<br />

On the plus side, <strong>swaptions</strong> offer downside<br />

protection in the case of declines in interest<br />

rates, <strong>with</strong> the price being paid by a cap on<br />

potential gains if rates rise significantly. That<br />

price, however, appears consistent <strong>with</strong> the<br />

directional trend to de-risk as a plan’s funded<br />

status improves. Finally, the attractiveness<br />

of the pricing of these instruments can vary<br />

significantly over time, so there is always a<br />

timing judgment that needs to be exercised<br />

when choosing <strong>swaptions</strong>.<br />

The authors wish<br />

to thank Jim<br />

Simonson for his<br />

excellent research<br />

assistance.<br />

Additional research on liability-driven investing<br />

You can access the following <strong>Russell</strong> research papers on <strong>Russell</strong>.com/institutional<br />

or via ClientLINK at https://clientlink.russell.com:<br />

››<br />

“Positioning <strong>LDI</strong> portfolios in today’s volatile market conditions” by Martin<br />

Jaugietis and Bob Collie<br />

››<br />

“Transitioning to <strong>LDI</strong> strategies” by Travis Bagley and Aran Murphy<br />

››<br />

“<strong>LDI</strong>’s role in pension plan strategy: Risk and return considerations” by Bob<br />

Collie and John Osborn<br />

››<br />

“Liability-responsive asset allocation” by James Gannon and Bob Collie<br />

››<br />

“Does equity have duration? And if so, is it useful for <strong>LDI</strong>?” by James Gannon<br />

6<br />

Based on market prices as<br />

of September 15, 2011.<br />

p / 7


STRATEGY TIMING IMPLEMENTATION<br />

CLIENT FOCUS<br />

Volatility-responsive asset<br />

allocation: The results in practice<br />

By: Bob Collie, FIA, Chief Research Strategist, Mike Sylvanus, Senior Investment Strategist, and<br />

Michael Thomas, CFA, Head of Consulting and Chief Investment Officer<br />

Bob Collie<br />

In last quarter’s issue of Communiqué, Mike Thomas explained how volatility<br />

is itself variable over time and how an investment policy might be designed<br />

that responds to those variations. This quarter we look at how such a policy<br />

would have performed—at the impact on the risk and returns of following a<br />

volatility-responsive strategy.<br />

Mike Sylvanus<br />

Michael Thomas<br />

Reducing volatility and improving the risk/return trade-off<br />

The principle that underpins volatility-responsive asset allocation is to reduce exposure to<br />

risky assets when volatility is high, and to increase that exposure when volatility is low.<br />

Volatility is an appealing foundation for a dynamic strategy because, unlike the outlook for<br />

returns (which are notoriously difficult to forecast), we can be relatively confident in our<br />

assessment of the volatility environment. One reason for this confidence is that changes in<br />

volatility are more persistent than changes in returns: Even a simple look at recent returns<br />

gives us useful insight about the immediate volatility environment. There are other ways to<br />

gauge the volatility environment: the volatility implied by options prices, for example, or the<br />

volatility of other markets.<br />

The analysis that follows is based on two assets only: U.S equity and U.S. fixed income, as<br />

represented by the <strong>Russell</strong> 3000 ® Index and the Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index<br />

(see Exhibit 1 for reference). It covers the period April 1979–June 2011, the period for which<br />

data on the <strong>Russell</strong> 3000 is available (the data starts at January 1979, and the strategy starts<br />

once 60 days’ return data is available from which to calculate trailing volatility).<br />

At the start of each month, the volatility of the daily equity market returns for the previous<br />

60 trading days is calculated. If that volatility lies in the range 10.3%–16.9%, then a notrade<br />

zone applies; this level of volatility is not regarded as being unusual enough to merit a<br />

deviation from the default asset allocation of 50% equity/50% fixed income. (This range was<br />

chosen so that the no-trade zone applies half of the time.)<br />

As volatility rises beyond 16.9%, the allocation to risky assets is decreased. Conversely, as<br />

volatility falls below 10.3%, the allocation to risky assets is increased. Note that the size of the<br />

no-trade zone, the minimum and maximum allocations to risky assets and the rate at which<br />

those minimum and maximum positions are achieved are parameters that can be customized<br />

to the specific situation.<br />

Our analysis confirms that this strategy does indeed produce lower volatility than the fixed<br />

mix, and its volatility is more stable and predictable. However, this is only half of the story.<br />

<strong>Russell</strong> <strong>Investments</strong> // <strong>Russell</strong> Communiqué p / 8


RUSSELL INVESTMENTS<br />

CLIENT FOCUS (continued)<br />

Asset allocation is not about risk alone,<br />

but about the trade-off between risk and<br />

expected return. If the rewards for taking<br />

risk are highest at the times of high market<br />

volatility, then the reduction in volatility<br />

shown above would come at too high a<br />

price: a drop in returns that more than wipes<br />

out the risk benefit. Here, too, the strategy<br />

stands up well: there was no return penalty<br />

over the period analyzed; the volatilityresponsive<br />

strategy delivered an average 40<br />

basis points higher return after accounting<br />

for trading costs.<br />

The full results are summarized in the table<br />

below, which compares the return pattern of<br />

the volatility-responsive strategy to that of a<br />

fixed 50/50 mix.<br />

Let us consider each of these statistics in turn.<br />

Annualized return: Even allowing for the<br />

cost of trading, the volatility-responsive<br />

strategy delivered a return over the full<br />

period that not only matched but beat that<br />

of the fixed mix. Note, however, that this can<br />

be episodic: there are periods of reduced<br />

return as well as periods of enhanced return.<br />

Annualized standard deviation: For<br />

the reasons described in the previous<br />

Communiqué article, we would expect the<br />

volatility-responsive strategy to deliver a<br />

more stable return stream than the fixed mix,<br />

and this was indeed the case. Note that not<br />

only is the standard deviation of returns over<br />

the full period lower, but the variability of the<br />

standard deviation over short periods is also<br />

materially lower, as shown in Exhibit 2.<br />

5%ile monthly return: Roughly one in<br />

20 of the monthly returns were –3.05%<br />

or worse under the volatility-responsive<br />

strategy, while roughly one in 30 were<br />

–3.41% or worse under the fixed mix. Thus,<br />

using this as a definition of a bad-case<br />

scenario, the volatility-responsive strategy<br />

fares slightly better, mitigating downside risk.<br />

Worst monthly return: A more extreme<br />

bad-case scenario is provided by a look<br />

at the lowest monthly return. For the<br />

volatility-responsive strategy, this would<br />

have occurred in October 1987, when the<br />

portfolio value fell by 9.44%. (As a point<br />

of comparison, in that month the fixed-mix<br />

value fell by 9.43%.) The worst month for<br />

the fixed mix was October 2008, when<br />

it fell by 10.05%. (By comparison, the<br />

volatility-responsive strategy fell by 5.44%<br />

that month.)<br />

Worst three-month return: For the<br />

volatility-responsive strategy, this was a<br />

September through November 1987 decline<br />

of 12.16%. (As a point of comparison, over<br />

that same period, the 50/50 fixed mix<br />

declined by 14.37%.) The worst three-month<br />

return for the fixed mix, a loss of 16.86%,<br />

occurred in September through November<br />

2008. (By comparison, the volatilityresponsive<br />

strategy would have declined by<br />

8.77% over that three-month period.)<br />

In summary, then, each of the measures<br />

points to the volatility-responsive strategy<br />

Exhibit 1: Summary statistics of volatility-responsive strategy, April 1979–June 2011<br />

Fixed mix (50% equity) Volatility-responsive strategy<br />

Annualized return 10.28% 10.68%<br />

Annualized standard deviation 8.99% 8.43%<br />

5%ile monthly return –3.41% –3.05%<br />

Worst monthly return –10.05% –9.44%<br />

Worst three-month return –16.86% –12.16%<br />

Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.<br />

Past performance is not indicative of future results.<br />

p / 9


Exhibit 2: Volatility of returns is more stable under the volatility-responsive strategy<br />

Trailing 24-month standard deviation of returns, annualized<br />

16%<br />

12%<br />

VRAA strategy<br />

increases volatility<br />

from low levels<br />

8%<br />

4%<br />

0%<br />

VRAA strategy reduces<br />

volatility from high levels<br />

Fixed 50/50<br />

VRAA<br />

Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.<br />

Past performance is not indicative of future results.<br />

This article is<br />

an excerpt from<br />

the authors’<br />

Volatility-Responsive<br />

Asset Allocation:<br />

A stronger link<br />

between asset<br />

allocation policy<br />

and the market<br />

environment.<br />

having been effective in reducing and<br />

stabilizing risk, <strong>with</strong>out incurring any overall<br />

reduction in returns.<br />

As mentioned above, however, these<br />

benefits are somewhat episodic, especially<br />

<strong>with</strong> regard to the effect on returns. Thus,<br />

even though the volatility-responsive<br />

strategy would have delivered a better risk/<br />

return trade-off, it would also have created<br />

tracking error relative to the fixed mix. So<br />

if it is judged only on the basis of its impact<br />

relative to the default strategy, there will<br />

be times when it underperforms. Now, it<br />

really makes no more sense to look at the<br />

tracking error of the volatility-responsive<br />

strategy compared to a fixed mix than it<br />

would be to move from, say, a fixed 60/40<br />

mix to a fixed 50/50 mix and then judge<br />

the 50/50 mix on its tracking error relative<br />

to the higher-risk strategy. It is, however, a<br />

comparison that some will make, and it is<br />

sensible to be prepared in advance for what<br />

that comparison will show.<br />

This highlights the difference between<br />

judging a strategy in terms of its absolute<br />

return (in which case the overall performance<br />

is used to assess risk) and judging it in terms<br />

of its relative return (in which case tracking<br />

error is used to assess risk).<br />

Conclusion<br />

In summary, the use of fixed weights<br />

in strategic asset allocation policy does<br />

not result in a stable risk/return pattern<br />

over time, but rather leads to greater risk<br />

at times of high market volatility and to<br />

lower risk in unusually stable markets. For<br />

investors who are sensitive to volatility,<br />

a more consistent outcome can be<br />

achieved—both in terms of the volatility of<br />

returns and in terms of how volatile that<br />

volatility itself is—by adopting a dynamic,<br />

or volatility-responsive, approach.<br />

<strong>Russell</strong> <strong>Investments</strong> // <strong>Russell</strong> Communiqué p / 10


STRATEGY TIMING IMPLEMENTATION<br />

RUSSELL INVESTMENTS<br />

OPINION<br />

Climate change and investments,<br />

or: “Why should I care?”<br />

By: Greg Liddell, Managing Director, Consulting & Advisory Services—Australasia<br />

Greg Liddell<br />

1<br />

Doran and Zimmerman,<br />

University of Illinois,<br />

Examining the Scientific<br />

Consensus on Climate<br />

Change, EOS Volume 90<br />

Number 3, 20 January<br />

2009.<br />

2<br />

US National Oceanic<br />

and Atmospheric<br />

Administration, National<br />

Climate Date Centre<br />

http://www.ncdc.noaa.<br />

gov/indicators/<br />

3<br />

Stern Review on the<br />

Economics of Climate<br />

Change 2006.<br />

Few issues have generated more skepticism than the subject of climate change. If 97% of the<br />

world’s astronomers told us a large meteor would collide <strong>with</strong> the Earth on December 22, 2012<br />

(the alleged last day of the Mayan calendar), we would not waste too much time arguing about<br />

the veracity of their models. Rather, we would focus on building a rocket to destroy the meteor,<br />

or at least to change its trajectory. However, when 97% of the world’s geoscientists 1 tell us that<br />

anthropogenic (the politically correct term for “man-made”) carbon emissions are resulting<br />

in 0.29ºF of global warming per decade, 2 <strong>with</strong> long-term but ultimately devastating impacts,<br />

the consequence is a degree of skepticism that has led to years of procrastination. In my view,<br />

fiduciaries do not have the luxury of procrastination.<br />

So why should fiduciaries squeeze climate change considerations into governance budgets which<br />

are already stretched? In my view, there are two answers to that question, one based on long-term<br />

sustainable values and one based on responsibilities in relation to the management of risk.<br />

Our current economy has a use-by date. Ultimately we will run out of fossil fuels and be forced to<br />

transition to renewable sources of energy. Studies tell us that the longer we postpone the transition,<br />

the more harm we will do to the planet, and the more costly and painful the transition will be. 3 Those<br />

who adopt a broader view of fiduciary responsibility would argue that as effective owners of the<br />

economy, fiduciaries should deploy capital not only to generate returns, but also to facilitate transition<br />

to a sustainable economy and in doing so, protect and maintain the society and way of life of members.<br />

On a shorter-term basis, fiduciaries should be aware of the risk to portfolios climate change poses.<br />

Agencies such as the EPA can introduce regulations materially changing the economics of some<br />

enterprises. State governments can introduce measures that effectively put a price on carbon,<br />

and foreign governments can introduce measures impacting companies operating <strong>with</strong>in their<br />

jurisdictions—for example, U.S. airlines flying into Europe will need to purchase carbon credits from<br />

January 2012. The physical risks associated <strong>with</strong> climate change should also not be ignored. Owners<br />

of physical assets need to incorporate stress testing for climate-change scenarios in their due diligence<br />

and ongoing management, or face potential losses and liability. Property must cope <strong>with</strong> rising<br />

seawater and more violent storms, motorways must cope <strong>with</strong> heavier rainfall. The insurance industry<br />

is already sending price signals in regard to climate change, increasing the price of insuring assets in<br />

high-risk areas and increasing the number of areas deemed “uninsurable.”<br />

An awareness of climate change does not mean fiduciaries should immediately invest large<br />

proportions of their assets in wind farms and solar energy initiatives. Most climate funds lack<br />

diversification and rely too heavily on government subsidies to generate returns. Climate change,<br />

like economic cycles, interest rates and national debt, is a factor. Thought should be given to the<br />

vulnerability of assets to either the financial or the physical risks associated <strong>with</strong> this factor, much<br />

as fiduciaries consider the impact of increased interest rates on bond portfolios, or of decreased<br />

consumer confidence on the stock prices of retail companies. The initial imperative for fiduciaries<br />

is to educate themselves on the issues.<br />

p / 11


STRATEGY TIMING IMPLEMENTATION<br />

Q&A<br />

The evolution of target<br />

date investing<br />

With Josh Cohen, Defined Contribution Practice Leader<br />

Josh Cohen<br />

Target date funds are relatively new. Is there evidence that they are<br />

actually helping participants avoid some of the pitfalls of investing?<br />

Yes. Before the creation of target date funds, many defined contribution (DC) plan<br />

participants struggled <strong>with</strong> poor diversification—many invested too much in company<br />

stock, for example. Participants also struggled <strong>with</strong> making investment choices<br />

appropriate for their ages, such as not taking on enough investment risk in their<br />

younger years. By their design, target date funds automatically resolve the issues of<br />

age-appropriate investing and diversification.<br />

Since the original creation of target date funds, what developments<br />

have you seen in the marketplace?<br />

Target date funds really started as turnkey solutions for DC plan sponsors looking for<br />

diversified default options. After the Pension Protection Act of 2006, many plan sponsors<br />

embraced target date funds as qualified default investment alternatives (QDIAs).<br />

Plan sponsors and target date fund providers have recognized that specialization can<br />

improve outcomes. One development is the rise of “open architecture” funds that<br />

include a mix of best-in-class managers instead of a single proprietary manager. This<br />

approach could also allow some large plan sponsors to take greater control and create<br />

their own target date funds.<br />

Another target date fund development is the desire for broader diversification, including<br />

the addition of products most sponsors would not include as standalone DC plan<br />

options—for example, alternative investments such as commodities or infrastructure<br />

funds. Investors have felt the pain of market ups and downs. Research is showing that<br />

such additional diversification can help lessen fund volatility.<br />

If plans are big enough, we are seeing demand for high levels of target date fund<br />

customization based on unique plan demographics.<br />

What’s driving the continual evolution of target date funds?<br />

Greater awareness that participants are increasingly relying upon DC plans, particularly<br />

the plans’ QDIA, as their primary vehicle for retirement savings. In their desire to serve<br />

as good fiduciaries, plan sponsors are really aiming to choose target date solutions<br />

that fit the participants in their plans—and that desire is driving demand for open<br />

architecture, increased diversification and higher levels of customization.<br />

<strong>Russell</strong> <strong>Investments</strong> // <strong>Russell</strong> Communiqué p / 12


RUSSELL INVESTMENTS<br />

Q&A (continued)<br />

Exhibit 1: The evolution of target date investing<br />

Early stage Current Future<br />

Objective Turnkey solutions Increased<br />

diversification and<br />

customization<br />

New asset classes<br />

U.S. equity,<br />

international<br />

developed equity,<br />

U.S. aggregate bonds<br />

REITS, commodities,<br />

TIPS, emerging<br />

markets,<br />

infrastructure, high<br />

yield, tactical AA<br />

Focus on participant<br />

outcomes and<br />

retirement income<br />

Annuities, longduration<br />

bonds<br />

Managers Proprietary Open architecture Open architecture<br />

Glide paths Off-the-shelf Customization at<br />

plan level<br />

Customization at<br />

participant level<br />

How do you think target date funds will evolve in the future?<br />

I think everyone—plan sponsors, participants and fund providers—will be more focused<br />

on retirement income. Right now, many participants are asking, “What level of assets<br />

am I going to have in retirement?” However, as many of the baby boomers approach and<br />

enter into retirement, they’re starting to ask, “What will my level of income be during<br />

retirement?” It’s a different mind-set.<br />

A focus on retirement income also has implications for product design. If retirees<br />

are looking for regular income, purchasing life annuities could enhance their living<br />

standards relative to a systematic <strong>with</strong>drawal program. Alternatively, long-duration bonds<br />

offer return potential similar to fixed annuities, but <strong>with</strong>out the administrative complexity.<br />

Are there other trends on the way?<br />

Mass customization is also on the horizon. For example, two issues <strong>with</strong> target date funds<br />

are that they give advice based only on the factor of age and they don’t adapt to shifts in the<br />

markets. Using information in a recordkeeper database, providers could create custom target<br />

date strategies for each participant based not only on age, but also on income level, current<br />

savings rates, and coverage in other company-sponsored retirement plans. They could also<br />

adapt asset-allocation strategies in response to market events and changes in contributions.<br />

I believe these trends are ultimately focused on improving the financial security of retirees.<br />

As more people rely on DC plans and default options as the main source of retirement<br />

savings, creating solutions tailored to their needs becomes increasingly important.<br />

p / 13


GREAT MOMENTS IN FINANCIAL HISTORY<br />

The opening of the Lions Gate<br />

By: Aran Murphy, Product Strategist<br />

Aran Murphy<br />

In debates about government power in the economic realm, two oft-used arguments are that,<br />

absent the government, public goods such as roads and bridges will not be constructed; and<br />

that only the government, not the private sector, is in the position to sponsor demand-sustaining<br />

public works projects during recessions. Odd, then, that such an impossibility as the Lions Gate<br />

Bridge exists.<br />

Built in Vancouver, British Columbia during the Great Depression, the Lions Gate Bridge connects<br />

the mostly water-locked downtown of Vancouver to the open land at its north. The bridge<br />

was constructed <strong>with</strong> private funds, <strong>with</strong> the aim of private profits, and was one of the largest<br />

construction projects in the city during that era. What follows is the story of how it came to be.<br />

Vancouver is the primary seaport of Western Canada, economically vital as a gateway to Asia.<br />

Like Manhattan Island in New York, Vancouver Island seats the downtown area and is the heart<br />

of the city. Although not really an island (it is connected to the mainland in the east, and not to be<br />

confused <strong>with</strong> the “real” Vancouver Island to its west), Vancouver was hemmed in by water. These<br />

geographical boundaries limited the city’s growth and made downtown real estate expensive on a<br />

relative level, even as the Great Depression dragged down overall economic activity.<br />

1<br />

All monetary figures<br />

expressed are in<br />

Canadian dollars.<br />

2<br />

Avison Young,<br />

Commercial Report:<br />

North Shore, BC; Fall/<br />

Winter 2009<br />

Sources:<br />

“Legacies: A Brief History<br />

of the Upper Lands,”<br />

British Pacific Properties.<br />

Online at http://www.<br />

britishproperties.com/<br />

about_us,legacies.<br />

“Lions Gate Bridge,”<br />

British Columbia<br />

Networks Association.<br />

Online at http://hp.bccna.<br />

bc.ca/Library/WestVan/<br />

history/Thumbnails/<br />

lions_thumb.htm.<br />

Across the Burrard Inlet to the north stretched an area of mostly forested and undeveloped land<br />

many times larger than that of downtown. Situated along the southmost footprint of the Canadian<br />

Rockies, the land sloped upward from Vancouver Bay to the two Lion Mountains, providing good<br />

terrain and—in real estate developers’ eyes—terrific potential for unobstructed southerly views.<br />

Some of this land was incorporated as the City of North Vancouver, which was then under threat of<br />

bankruptcy, owing to the inability of many landowners to pay their property taxes.<br />

Economic necessity mothered some innovative thinking. An engineer-cum-real-estate promoter,<br />

A.J.T. Taylor, convinced the Guinness family of London to purchase 4,700 acres in the Upper Lands<br />

area of North Vancouver in exchange for $1 million 1 in improvements over the next five years. For<br />

4,000 of those acres $75,000 was exchanged, putting the cost per acre at $18.75. As an additional<br />

condition of the sale, the family was to fund the construction of a bridge to the north shore from<br />

Vancouver’s Stanley Park. It was to be the Lions Gate Bridge.<br />

After a year and a half of construction and just under $6 million, the Lions Gate Bridge was<br />

completed in 1938. Although tolls of $0.25 per car were charged, it was not the tolls but the rapid<br />

increase in land values on the other side that justified the Guinness family investment. Having<br />

realized their real-estate investment aims, the Guinness family sold the bridge in 1955 to the<br />

province of British Columbia—for just under $6 million, less than half of its appraised value.<br />

Today 60,000 to 70,000 cars move daily across the 5,000-foot span of the Lions Gate, uniting<br />

mainly residential North Shore <strong>with</strong> Vancouver’s bustling downtown. One relatively recent<br />

commercial real estate report 2 puts North Shore industrial land prices at an average of $2 million<br />

per acre.<br />

In today’s era of collapsing public finances, high unemployment rates and the growing necessity<br />

for infrastructure investments, we can look back to the Lions Gate Bridge opening as having been<br />

truly a great moment.<br />

<strong>Russell</strong> <strong>Investments</strong> // <strong>Russell</strong> Communiqué p / 14


RUSSELL INVESTMENTS<br />

Nothing contained in this material is intended to constitute legal, tax, securities or investment advice, nor an opinion regarding the<br />

appropriateness of any investment, nor a solicitation of any type. The general information contained in this publication should not be<br />

acted upon <strong>with</strong>out obtaining specific legal, tax and investment advice from a licensed professional.<br />

These views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions and are current as of the date at the beginning of<br />

the document.<br />

Where noted, the opinions expressed in this material are not necessarily those held by <strong>Russell</strong> Investment Group, its affiliates or<br />

subsidiaries. While all material is deemed to be reliable, accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The information, analysis and<br />

opinions expressed herein are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any<br />

individual or entity.<br />

Please remember that all investments carry some level of risk, including the potential loss of principal invested. They do not typically<br />

grow at an even rate of return and may experience negative growth. As <strong>with</strong> any type of portfolio structuring, attempting to reduce risk<br />

and increase return could, at certain times, unintentionally reduce returns. Although steps can be taken to help reduce risk it cannot be<br />

completely removed.<br />

Diversification does not assure a profit and does not protect against loss in declining markets.<br />

Target date funds are not intended to be a complete solution to investors retirement income needs. Investors must weigh many factors<br />

when considering to invest in these funds, including how much an investor will need, how long will the investor need it for, what other<br />

sources the investor will have and, if the investor is purchasing shares in an IRA account, whether the fund’s target distributions will<br />

meet IRS minimum distribution requirements once age 70 1/2 is reached. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be invested in directly.<br />

Returns represent past performance, are not a guarantee of future performance and are not indicative of any specific investment.<br />

The trademarks, service marks and copyrights related to the <strong>Russell</strong> indexes and other materials as noted are the property of their<br />

respective owners.<br />

Copyright © <strong>Russell</strong> <strong>Investments</strong> 2011. All rights reserved. This material is proprietary and may not be reproduced, transferred or<br />

distributed in any form <strong>with</strong>out prior written permission from <strong>Russell</strong> <strong>Investments</strong>. It is delivered on an “as is” basis <strong>with</strong>out warranty.<br />

<strong>Russell</strong> Investment Group is a Washington USA corporation which operates through subsidiaries worldwide, including <strong>Russell</strong><br />

<strong>Investments</strong>, and is a subsidiary of The Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company.<br />

The <strong>Russell</strong> logo and Conscious Currency are trademarks and service marks of <strong>Russell</strong> <strong>Investments</strong>.<br />

Date of first use: October 2011<br />

p / 15


<strong>Russell</strong> Communiqué<br />

www.russell.com/institutional<br />

www.russell.com/ca/institutional<br />

U.S. West Coast contact<br />

U.S. East Coast contact<br />

David Rothenberg<br />

Managing Director<br />

U.S. Institutional—Large Market<br />

800-455-3782<br />

drothenberg@russell.com<br />

To learn more about<br />

our services for<br />

institutional investors<br />

or topics in this issue<br />

of Communiqué,<br />

contact your <strong>Russell</strong><br />

representative or one<br />

of these associates.<br />

Gerard W. Lillis<br />

Director, Relationship Management<br />

Americas Institutional<br />

800-541-0556<br />

glillis@russell.com<br />

Canadian contact<br />

Dexton Blackstock<br />

Head of Institutional Business Development<br />

Institutional Investment Solutions<br />

416-640-6202<br />

dblackstock@russell.com<br />

USI-10907-10 26-22-018 (1 07/11)<br />

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